Billy Ward laid ‑175 (still showing at Caesars) on HyunSung Park, calling Carlos Hernandez the ‘ultimate split-decision merchant.’ Hernandez’s four UFC/Contender wins include three splits and a technical decision that only materialized after he head-butted Dennis Bondar, whose UFC run ended 0-3. Ward likes Park’s dynamic kicking game and high volume—he ‘throws a ton even if some miss,’ which still scores with judges. He also praised Park’s get-ups and defensive grappling on the regional scene, expecting him to neutralize Hernandez’s obligatory takedown attempts. Because Park’s aggression should bank optics while Hernandez’s résumé relies on coin-flip scorecards, Ward believes the Korean should be closer to ‑225.

Andy Lang is taking plus-money on Carlos Hernandez. Lang’s angle is a consistent fade of Road-to-UFC graduates like Youngsang Park, noting that Park’s best wins are over Shannon Ross and regional opponents who would struggle on the Contender Series. Hernandez, though inconsistent, has already shared the cage with elite prospects Tatsuro Taira, Allan Nascimento and Rei Tsuruya, giving him far stronger UFC-level reps. Lang trusts Hernandez’s seasoning, submission defense and better cardio to show once the adrenaline dump hits Park, making the underdog price too juicy to pass.

Guru picked HyunSung Park to finish Carlos Hernandez inside the distance. He likes Park’s combination punching, explosiveness and willingness to hunt the finish shown in his UFC debut. Hernandez has been finished twice in his last three and struggles with dynamic strikers. Guru advised looking for Park ITD or round-2 props while monitoring live odds if Hernandez survives an early barrage.

On the same PrizePicks slip, Guru took the under on 49.5 significant strikes for Carlos Hernandez. He expects HyunSung Park’s explosiveness and finishing upside to keep this fight short or force Hernandez into defensive grappling exchanges, limiting Hernandez’s landed volume. Hernandez landed just 33 sig. strikes before being submitted by Jake Hadley, and Guru sees a similar ceiling here.

Michael Lurato picked HyunSung Park to win but said the standalone –175 to –190 money-line is too steep for a flyweight bout likely headed to the cards. Hernandez relies on awkward, free-form lateral movement to set up reactive takedowns, yet the Apex’ smaller cage shrinks that runway and lets Park, the more fundamentally sound boxer, cut him off. Lurato added that Hernandez is dangerous for only the first few seconds of a scramble; once Park establishes hooks, Hernandez tends to accept position rather than explode again. Because he still expects extended exchanges and at least one scramble, Lurato suggested pairing Park ML with Over 1.5 rounds in a same-game parlay to bring the price near pick-em. That combo captures Park’s cardio advantage and Hernandez’s durability while avoiding the worst of the chalk.

Kunath called HyunSung Park arguably the best bet on the card and was surprised the market had not widened the spread. Park is younger, quicker, and carries more finishing upside than Carlos Hernandez, who keeps skating by on shaky split-decision wins—Kunath thought Hernandez actually lost to Naimov. Park owns the better athletic profile, hits harder, and brings more dangerous grappling, giving him multiple avenues to finish. Meanwhile, Hernandez typically just manages where the fight takes place without threatening much himself. Kunath predicts Park’s speed and power will eventually break Hernandez, cashing an inside-the-distance ticket at a still-reasonable price.

Jeff Fox laid out a straightforward case for the −163 favorite HyunSung Park, noting the South Korean prospect owns statistical edges everywhere: +0.72 strike differential, 51% striking accuracy, 41% takedown success, and an active rate of 5.9 significant strikes per minute. Fox emphasized Park’s eight-fight finish streak (all since 2021) and the confidence the UFC showed by fast-tracking him through Road to UFC. Although the 24-year-old hasn’t fought since December, Fox is not concerned about ring rust because Park has logged full camps in Thailand and looks physically mature for flyweight. He expects Park to dictate range with calf kicks, mix in a few level-changes, and eventually overwhelm Hernandez, making the money-line a safe parlay piece.

Sniper backed HyunSung Park at $8,500, calling him one of the slate’s best mid-range DFS targets. Park has won four straight since Road to UFC and offers both knockout power and functional wrestling. Sniper expects him to keep the fight standing against Carlos Hernandez—who relies on guard-pulling submissions and was dominated by Tatsuro Taira and Allan Nascimento—and finish or pile up top-position damage. Hernandez concedes takedowns (4 by Taira) and has been stopped, so Park owns multiple paths to 90-plus DK points. Sniper feels the betting line (-175) and salary do not reflect Park’s ceiling.

Daniel “Gumby” Vreeland backed Carlos Hernandez at +145, calling him the grittiest underdog on the prelims. He argued Hernandez’s losses came only to elite flyweight wrestlers Tatsuro Taira and Allan Nascimento, yet Hernandez still stuffed multiple takedowns in both bouts and held Taira to a career-low 2:47 of control time. Park, by contrast, owns just a 27% takedown accuracy and has not fought since December 2023, leaving questions about form after an eight-month layoff. Gumby likes Hernandez’s hand speed, noting a +0.47 strike differential built against better competition, and expects Hernandez to keep the fight standing long enough to win a volume-heavy decision. He suggested sprinkling the decision prop for a juicier return.