Andy Lang made Costa his favorite chalk of the card, saying the matchup screams early knockout. Lang replayed Julian Erosa’s most recent bout and could not get over the fact that a completely shot Darren Elkins landed two takedowns and several clean punches. Erosa’s hands hang at his waist, his chin has already been cracked five times in the UFC, and Lang thinks he is simply "due to get chin-checked." Meanwhile Costa looked sharper than ever against Christian Rodriguez—crisper right hand, nasty calf kicks and, most important, a full gas tank that let him keep pressure for three rounds. Lang believes those weapons, combined with Costa’s willingness to mix in an opportunistic takedown, expose Erosa’s nonexistent defense. He is betting Costa inside-the-distance (+175) with a smaller sprinkle on the Round-1 KO prop (+450) and considers the straight moneyline a parlay anchor.

Matty Betss called Julian Erosa his favorite realistic dog of the card and specifically targeted the submission market rather than the straight money-line. Betss reminded listeners Erosa has finished high-level grapplers like Charles "C-Rod" Jourdain and owns multiple first-round chokes in the UFC. He believes this matchup favors another club-and-sub or slick darce because Costa routinely gives up necks in scrambles and has been forced to tap in two of his last three appearances, including a bizarre self-inflicted guillotine to Andre Fili. Costa carries zero UFC knockouts, so Betss is not worried about Erosa’s notoriously shaky chin. Instead, he trusts Erosa’s length (74-inch reach), improved boxing under coach Eric Nicksick, and 13 career submissions to expose what he sees as a specialty gap on the mat. With books hanging plus money on the dog and a juicy submission prop still north of +500, Betss advised sprinkling the choke line for maximum upside.

MMA Guru backed Melquizael Costa to defeat Julian Erosa, projecting either a late TKO or clear 29-28 on the cards. He acknowledged Erosa’s habit of upsetting hyped newcomers but argued that Costa is a fellow “fraud-checker” who is physically larger than the bantamweights Erosa usually bullies (Charles Jourdain, Christian Rodriguez). Guru praised Costa’s last performance—mixing takedowns, clinch work and heavy kicks versus Rodriguez—and said the Brazilian’s tightened defense and conditioning should let him survive Erosa’s patented early chaos. With Costa throwing cleaner, harder combinations and Erosa’s chin showing cracks since the Nate Landwehr KO, Guru expects Costa’s power and body work to snowball, making the Brazilian a solid money-line play and a sprinkle on TKO props.

Jeff Fox sided with Melquizael Costa, leaning on the seven-year age gap and what he sees as the Brazilian’s technical edge in stand-up exchanges. Fox expects Costa to keep a high pace without fading, believing the younger fighter’s cardio and durability allow him to survive Erosa’s chaos and out-land him over three rounds. While acknowledging Erosa’s finishing danger, Fox noted Costa has won three straight and six of his last eight, carrying a +1.14 significant strikes per minute differential compared to Erosa’s nearly break-even mark. He projects a competitive scrap but sees Costa’s sharper boxing combinations and superior consistency carrying the scorecards for a decision win at roughly –185 odds.

Dan Tom echoed the Erosa dog call, adding inside information from Extreme Couture. Erosa’s current camp pairs him with striking coach Abijah Kaleah Mejula, whose southpaw switch-stance style mirrors Costa’s preferred looks, and training partners like lightweight prospect Kaleo Mejula. Tom notes that Erosa’s tape against Darren Elkins looked like he was ‘stuck in mud,’ but attributes that to Elkins’ perpetual slow-motion pace rather than a decline in skills. In the smaller UFC Apex cage, Tom expects Erosa’s forward pressure, varied boxing entries and willingness to mix in level-changes to force Costa into exchanges instead of the waiting game he prefers. While acknowledging Erosa can still be knocked out, Tom values the fighter’s proven ability to create volume and finish upside over Costa’s reactive striking and believes the plus-money number remains playable down to +130. DFS players hunting leverage can also target Erosa’s combination of striking volume and submission attempts for a ceiling well above salary expectations.

Michael Lurato recommended grabbing Julian Erosa at the current +150 because the veteran creates far more offense than Melquizael Costa and owns broader paths to score big moments. Lurato believes Erosa possesses the cleaner hands, heavier power, tighter head movement and superior willingness to press into the fire, whereas Costa is an opportunist who waits for opponents to open the door. He concedes Erosa’s chin is the obvious red flag, but argues that if it holds up for even 10–12 minutes, Erosa’s higher output and serviceable grappling should sway judges in a 145-pound bout the books expect to finish (Under 2.5 sits –150). Lurato is betting the money-line rather than props, banking on Erosa’s initiative to outshine Costa’s counter-first style and produce either a late finish or clear 29-28 decision.

Gumby Vreeland grabbed the plus-money on veteran Julian “Juicy J” Erosa, citing Costa’s shaky submission defense and Erosa’s knack for front-head chokes. Vreeland reminded listeners that Costa was rear-naked-choked by Thiago Moises last year and has been tagged on the feet in previous bouts. Erosa’s 6-foot-1 frame at featherweight gives him three inches of height and reach, perfect for latching his trademark darce or anaconda when opponents shoot. He also carries legit pop, evidenced by starching iron-chin Nate Landwehr, so Vreeland envisions either a stun-then-snatch submission or a straight knockout. With Erosa winning six of his last eight and finishing his last three victories, Vreeland believes the matchup aligns perfectly for another bonus-worthy finish.

Monk endorsed Melquizael Costa in all DFS formats—even cash games—at $8,700, arguing that Julian Arosa’s historically awful defense (sub-10th percentile in distance, head, and significant strike defense) gifts Costa a massive ceiling. Costa reversed Diego Ferreira Rodrigues three times in a grappling-heavy brawl that still produced 4+ significant strikes per minute from both fighters, demonstrating both scramble savvy and pace. Arosa remains dangerous with 14 career submissions and 12 knockouts, but he has been finished in four of his last seven UFC appearances and was iced in one round by the same Sea-Rod that Costa went 15 competitive minutes with. Monk highlighted Costa’s improving round-to-round output, his willingness to engage on the mat (11+ minutes of control time exchanges versus C-Rod), and the fight-ending line of –170 ITD as reasons Costa can easily crack 100 DK points. He’ll play both sides in GPPs for leverage but will anchor cash builds with Costa when the $8.7K range is needed.

Kunath said Melquizael Costa is the side here and specifically likes the KO/TKO prop. His case rests on Julian Erosa’s long-running vulnerability to southpaws and to power in general. Erosa has been knocked out seven times overall and has faced only three left-handed UFC opponents—Alex Caceres, Seung-Woo Choi and Steven Peterson—yet all three put him away. Kunath even added that Artem Lobov, a southpaw from The Ultimate Fighter season, iced Erosa as well. Costa carries the same stance, owns 30 pro bouts at just 28 years old, and Kunath thinks his kicking game will force Erosa to drop his hands, opening straight lefts down the pipe. While Costa is not known as a one-shot finisher, Kunath trusts his improving accuracy and the durability edge to add another knockout to Erosa’s record at plus money rather than laying juice on the moneyline.