Iain MacMillan recommended Ray Davis at +310 for an anytime touchdown, framing it as a classic backup-RB blowout script. The Bills enter Sunday as the week’s biggest favorite, and MacMillan anticipates a lopsided game that will shift second-half touches to Davis. He referenced Davis’ 26.7% snap share in Buffalo’s 30-10 victory over the Jets as evidence the staff is willing to lean on him when protecting a lead. If the Bills jump ahead of the Saints early, Davis should handle late-game carries and red-zone chances, giving bettors better than 3-to-1 value on a score.

Everett was willing to lay the massive ‑16.5 with Buffalo, citing the Saints’ 0-3 ATS mark and just one 20-point outing in Spencer Rattler’s nine starts. The Bills logged six wins of 20-plus last year and have already throttled the Jets 30-10. New Orleans’ 44-13 loss to Seattle underscored offensive agony, while Buffalo’s +63 point differential through three weeks suggests another blow-up spot. Everett reminded readers that big favorites covered routinely for Buffalo in 2024 and sees no evidence the trend stops here.

Matt Jacob laid Buffalo ‑9.5 in the first half, arguing the Saints are in an awful scheduling spot after flying from New Orleans to Seattle last week and now all the way to Buffalo. Jacob called New Orleans "possibly the worst team in the NFL" after they fell behind 38-6 at halftime to Seattle. Meanwhile the undefeated Bills are on extra rest following a Thursday win over Miami and have recently jumped on inferior teams early, leading the Jets 20-6 at halftime two weeks ago. Jacob sees little chance Buffalo is flat after allowing Miami to hang around and expects another double-digit halftime cushion.

Mike Tierney said he is grabbing the Saints +15.5 at Buffalo, arguing the number is simply too fat this early in the season. He reminded readers that New Orleans lost its first two games by just seven and five points, while Buffalo’s defense sits 20th in points allowed through three weeks. Tierney believes that leaves plenty of room for Spencer Rattler and an otherwise scrappy roster to stay inside two touchdowns. Tierney’s track record—235-189-13 the last three seasons and 19-11-1 on his last 31 Bills ATS calls—adds confidence to the play.

Vic Tafur grabbed the 16.5 with New Orleans because Spencer Rattler quietly excels under duress: 62 % completion, two TDs and an 83.8 passer rating on pressured dropbacks, all top-four across the league. He expects a post-Miami let-down from Buffalo and trusts the Saints’ respectable run defense to limit explosive plays. Tafur concedes Rattler may wake up 0-10 as a starter but still sees the quarterback’s pocket toughness keeping the game inside two touchdowns.

Richard Janvrin recommended betting Chris Olave to record at least six receptions at -125. Janvrin noted that Olave’s 31.9% target share and 37 total targets lead the league, two more than Puka Nacua. Olave has run 125 routes (tied for second-most in the NFL) and is on the field for 94.7% of New Orleans dropbacks, producing double-digit targets in every game so far. Facing a Bills defense that sits in Cover-3 on 29.5% of snaps, Janvrin pointed out that 12 of Olave’s 23 receptions and 14 of his 37 targets have come versus that coverage shell. With the Saints entering Buffalo as more than two-touchdown underdogs, Janvrin expects a pass-heavy script and believes Olave’s volume floor makes six catches a strong over.

Moody pegged James Cook as a top Week 4 running back. Buffalo is a 15.5-point home favorite and boasts the NFL’s No. 1 run-block win-rate line (76.6%). Cook has logged 18-plus touches and 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games, and he now faces a Saints front giving up the seventh-most points to backs. Game script and trenches both scream for another 20-touch afternoon; Cook is a cash-game anchor and auto-start in all formats.