Janvrin grabbed Tampa Bay ‑7 at +100 with Justin Fields sidelined by a concussion. Backup Tyrod Taylor must face Todd Bowles’ defense; the last time he did (2018), he completed just 4-of-14 passes for 19 yards. The Jets have generated 25 pressures, but the Buccaneers’ battered line has forced Baker Mayfield to speed things up—his 2.55-second average time to throw ranks 11th among qualified QBs. Janvrin expects short, methodical Tampa drives to complement a defense allowing only 19.5 PPG, enough to clear the touchdown spread.

At +2200 Burke views Baker Mayfield as the long-shot alternative if Tampa’s banged-up offensive line forces him to improvise near the goal line. Mayfield logged nine red-zone carries for 37 yards and three touchdowns last season and had 13 such attempts the year before. With Tampa preferring to throw in close and the Jets pass rush creating scramble lanes, Burke believes Mayfield’s legs give him outs far exceeding the implied 4.3% probability.

Burke likes Mike Evans at +700, noting the veteran has never gone three straight regular-season games without a score while catching passes from Baker Mayfield. Evans has just 10 catches for 107 yards so far, but Burke expects regression because Tampa wideouts accounted for 12 of the team’s 18 first-TDs last year, illustrating a clear pass-heavy red-zone preference. With the Jets’ secondary beatable on perimeter fades and Evans chasing his own historical streak, Burke sees a buy-low window on the star receiver.

Despite Justin Fields being ruled out with a concussion, Tuley played New York +6.5, noting substitute QB Tyrod Taylor’s sparkling 33-21-4 ATS career mark (61.1 %). The number actually dipped from TB ‑7 to ‑6.5 after the quarterback switch, suggesting odds-makers view Taylor as only a small downgrade. Tuley expects the veteran’s conservative style to keep the Jets within a touchdown.

Everett laid seven with Tampa Bay, banking on a Jets offense that could be without concussed starter Justin Fields. The Buccaneers rallied past Houston Monday night despite missing both tackles; All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs practiced last week and RT Luke Goedeke might return, upgrades that would bolster a ground game that gashed the Texans for 169 yards even while shorthanded. Assuming at least one tackle suits up, Everett foresees a comfortable Buccaneers win.

Wes O'Donnell laid the touchdown with the Buccaneers, noting Todd Bowles’ club ‘beats teams it should beat by double digits at home.’ He cited last year’s +14.2 average home margin and likes the spot: Tampa makes its 2025 home debut while the Jets travel after an ugly loss to Buffalo. O’Donnell concedes Tyrod Taylor may keep New York competitive, but expects Baker Mayfield’s offense—and an attacking defense—to stretch a lead similar to the two wire-to-wire wins the Bucs posted in Raymond James a season ago.

New York has already surrendered 32 and 30 points; Cluff projected another 30-spot from Baker Mayfield and a "solid Tampa Bay offense," calling a 30-14 final. He recommends backing Tampa team-total Overs and the spread against a leaky Jets unit.