Chirimbes projected a 20-17 Tampa win, cautioning bettors the 3.5-point spread leaves the back door open. He expects Baker Mayfield to rebound from his worst outing but noted eight Buccaneer starters missed practice time. Tampa has taken five of the last six in the series, while New Orleans continues to sputter offensively with an anemic ground game and Spencer Rattler under center—factors that point to the Bucs winning yet possibly failing to cover.

Burrell advised bettors to lock in New Orleans +4.5, citing multiple red flags for Tampa Bay. The line has already slid from ‑5.5 to ‑4.5, signaling early respect for the Saints. The Buccaneers are on a short week after a Monday-night loss and will be without Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans, stripping away nearly all of Baker Mayfield’s explosive options. Combine those injuries with cross-country travel and divisional familiarity— factors that historically tighten NFC South games— and Burrell sees little chance the undermanned Bucs separate. He trusts the Saints’ defense to force a grind-it-out script that stays well within a field goal, making the +4.5 an attractive number.

With Mike Evans out for most of the season, Joyner thinks Baker Mayfield is stuck throwing to a rookie-heavy trio of Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard. Rachaad White has even ceded snaps to Bucky Irving, further lowering Tampa Bay’s ceiling. New Orleans is healthier overall; Spencer Rattler limits upside, but defensive depth keeps them competitive. Joyner took the Saints +4 at confidence level 2 while still calling for a narrow Bucs win.

Hill grabbed Saints +4.5. Tampa Bay is dealing with a ‘long list’ of offensive injuries and is on a short week after a bruising Monday night battle with Detroit. Hill labeled New Orleans 'feisty' and expects the Saints to keep things tight inside the Superdome.

Matt Bowen advised laying the -5.5 with Tampa Bay, stressing that Todd Bowles’ front is top-10 in both blitz rate and overall pressure rate and should rattle Spencer Rattler, who just tossed three interceptions in a Week 7 loss to Chicago. Bowen said Baker Mayfield’s efficient play is a bonus, but the real edge is a Buccaneers defense that disguises post-snap looks and forces frantic pocket movement. He expects Tampa to create short fields, overwhelm a Saints offense still searching for rhythm, and ultimately cover on the road.