Overzet cautioned against paying the new sticker price on running backs like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Joe Mixon—players who smashed in 2024 after being selected outside the first round but are now climbing into the early turns of 2025 drafts. He stressed that the very edge that made them profitable last year (discounted ADP relative to ceiling) no longer exists, and chasing 2024’s production at an inflated cost limits roster flexibility. Instead of spending premium capital on Barkley, Overzet advised fantasy managers to zig toward early-WR or even Zero RB builds where they can capture equivalent backfield upside later without sacrificing elite wide-receiver firepower.

Overzet argued that Zero RB is alive and well for 2025 drafts. With early running backs now "all the rage" after last season’s explosions, their ADPs have been pushed up, creating negative risk-reward profiles. He recommended loading up on elite pass catchers early and waiting until the double-digit rounds to scoop undervalued backs with contingent upside, citing Bucky Irving’s late-round rookie breakout, Chuba Hubbard’s boring-vet value, and Jordan Mason’s handcuff pop in 2024 as proof that ambiguous or injury-driven backfields still produce league-winners. The key, per Overzet, is quantity over pedigree: pile up four to six cheap RB tickets who can inherit 15-plus touches if chaos strikes.

Pete Overzet said drafters should make rookies a core focus in 2025 best-ball tournaments, pointing to Ricky Pearsall’s 24.7-point eruption in Week 17 of 2024 that propelled user LGREWE50 to the $1.5 million top prize in Best Ball Mania. Overzet noted that rookies are routinely discounted because their roles are uncertain in September, yet historical usage trends show those roles expand as the season progresses. That combination of cheap ADP and ascending late-season volume creates the exact kind of one-week ceiling needed to win advancement rounds that reset scoring (Weeks 15-17). He urged drafters to lean into this year’s rookie class—even if it appears less prolific on paper—because a single December or Week 17 spike can swing the entire finals.

Pete Overzet highlighted Marvin Mims as a preseason winner after the second-year receiver logged 82% route participation with Denver’s starters—a massive jump from last year’s 32% season average. Overzet acknowledged Sean Payton’s historically fluid wide-receiver rotations but believes this early signal matters because the Broncos’ depth chart behind Courtland Sutton is wide open (Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Lil’Jordan Humphrey). If the near full-time usage sticks, Mims pairs 4.38-speed with a legitimate every-down role in an offense expected to lean on quick-hitting routes for rookie QB Bo Nix. Overzet recommends scooping Mims in the double-digit rounds of best-ball and season-long drafts before the market fully adjusts.

Pete Overzet closed his draft with Trevor Etienne, contending the back has a “sneaky shot” to seize Carolina’s RB2 role over Rico Dowdle. He cited Etienne’s strong Rookie Super Model grade and argued he is the best pass catcher in the Panthers’ backfield, a skill that could earn him third-down work immediately. Overzet views Etienne as the type of late-round swing that can spike in high-leverage weeks if the coaching staff favors receiving versatility.

Pete Overzet selected Miles Sanders in Round 15, calling him a necessary “chaperone” for Zero-RB builds. Despite rising buzz around Jaydon Blue’s upside, Overzet expects Sanders to lead the Cowboys backfield in touches during the opening month. He framed Sanders as a cheap source of start-the-season points who can bridge best-ball rosters until the high-upside backups on the same roster (or elsewhere) seize larger roles.

Pete Overzet loved grabbing Trey Benson at pick 142, citing continuous team praise and a direct correlation with his existing Kyler Murray-Trey McBride stack. He pointed to Arizona beat writers comparing Benson’s tackle-breaking profile to James Conner’s prime and noted that Conner’s own social-media hype suggests a committee is coming. Overzet believes Benson could take control of early-down work by mid-season, giving drafters playoff-weeks juice at a cheap RB4 price.

Pete Overzet paired Tyjae Spears with Jaylen Warren, noting Spears may already command a 50/50 workload alongside Tony Pollard. Spears’ pass-game role secures the high-value touches, and Overzet highlighted that the back would project as a weekly RB1 if Pollard were sidelined. He considers Spears one of the stronger Zero-RB targets available after Round 9 because he offers both standalone usability and contingent upside in Tennessee’s new outside-zone scheme.

Pete Overzet said Jaylen Warren is “live for a 50/50 touch split” with Kaleb Johnson in Pittsburgh. He likes Warren’s receiving chops for high-value touches and believes the back has full RB1 contingency upside if Johnson misses time. Although Overzet admitted Warren profiles better as an RB3/4, he still views him as one of the few Round-9 backs who can provide both weekly floor through catches and true breakout equity in best ball formats.

Pete Overzet drafted Emeka Egbuka in the seventh round and called him an “easy click” because beat reporters say he has been dominating camp. With Chris Godwin expected to miss "a few games" to start the year, Overzet expects Egbuka to step immediately into a high-volume role on the perimeter. He pointed out that once the Packers wideouts were gone Egbuka offered the best blend of target share ceiling and Week-1 runway at that ADP, making him a priority pick for drafters who need an early scoring punch in best ball.

Pete Overzet assigned only a 4.6/10 panic score to Khalil Shakir’s high-ankle sprain, implying drafters should not overreact. Shakir just secured a contract extension and was tracking for the Bills’ No. 1 receiver role after steady year-over-year improvement, but the injury opens a short-term window for Joshua Palmer and sophomore Keon Coleman to siphon snaps. Overzet believes Shakir’s timeline gives him a reasonable shot to be full strength early in the season, making him a mild discount target rather than a stay-away. Fantasy gamers should monitor practice participation but can still draft Shakir at a slightly depressed ADP as long as camp reports stay positive.

Pete Overzet advised scooping up Brian Thomas Jr. whenever he slides past ADP in best ball drafts. He argued that Thomas’ explosive profile mirrors last season’s late-year rookie breakouts and noted rookies are routinely undervalued because drafters overweight early-season uncertainty. Overzet stressed that Jacksonville’s thin depth chart behind Christian Kirk offers a mid-season runway for Thomas to surge in routes. Because best ball tournaments reset points each round and pay out the majority of prize money in Week 17, Overzet believes Thomas’ high aDOT, down-field role can replicate Ricky Pearsall’s $1.5 million clinching performance from last year if he times a spike week with the finals.

Pete Overzet said Bucky Irving is exactly the kind of rookie drafters should chase in 2025 best ball tournaments. He pointed to Ricky Pearsall’s 24.7-point outburst in Week 17 last season that vaulted the $1.5 million Best Ball Mania winner as proof that late-season rookie spikes decide the money. Because rookies function as a 'mystery box,' Irving is still discounted despite landing in what could be a vacated backfield in Tampa. Overzet reminded readers that rookies historically see role growth down the stretch and that a small $25 entry is leveraged most by players capable of a single week ceiling game. He framed Irving as the ideal late-round Zero-RB pick who can cover bye weeks early and deliver tournament-winning upside when the prize pool flattens in Weeks 15-17.

Bryant is Overzet’s favorite late-round Broncos pick for the Week 17 shootout versus Kansas City, but he noticed 25 % of those shares are paired with Chiefs rookie RB Brashard Smith— a player he recently faded for lacking upside. He wants future Bryant teams paired with higher-ceiling Chiefs like Isiah Pacheco or Travis Kelce (and is fine with Xavier Worthy). The tweak preserves the playoff correlation while avoiding a low-usage back who could clog roster spots.

Because he draws the 1.06 slot only 4 % of the time, Overzet sits at just 6 % Gibbs exposure—his lowest among Round-1 backs. He plans to correct that by targeting Gibbs in a single high-dollar contest like the $500 Big Dog. One share there would meaningfully raise his fee-weight exposure without forcing a flurry of additional low-stakes drafts, ensuring portfolio leverage on a back he "loves."

Overzet highlighted that his Round-2 Rice shares are underwater (-9.1 average CLV) now that the Chiefs wideout’s ADP has cratered to 37.5 amid suspension concerns. Those early picks will compete against managers who scoop Rice in the 4th-5th round, creating a structural disadvantage. He recommends steering clear until the market fully bakes in the games-missed risk.

Overzet called Keenan Allen a classic buy-low, noting his current 200.8 ADP is almost certainly the floor. Allen is still a target-hog when healthy, and Overzet expects an immediate price jump similar to J.K. Dobbins once Allen inks a deal. Grabbing him now locks in positive closing-line value and creates potential "super teams" if the veteran lands in an offense that needs volume in the slot.

Overzet advised patience on Jordan Addison, lumping him with Chris Godwin and Brandon Aiyuk as names almost guaranteed to slide. Addison faces a potential suspension; Godwin has bearish injury reports; Aiyuk has "no timeline to return." All three are expected to drop multiple rounds, so burning an early-summer pick sacrifices closing-line value and handicaps roster strength against drafters who wait.

Pete Overzet said best-ball drafters who are heavy on Luther Burden should start prioritizing Caleb Williams a round or two ahead of ADP. Because Burden is selected later, drafters rarely circle back to complete the Williams–Burden stack (he has it on only 1.5 % of 200+ teams). By grabbing the quarterback first you can "star" Burden and dramatically improve portfolio diversification while still capturing a cheap, high-upside QB–WR rookie pairing for the Bears’ pass-heavy attack.

Because he’s only drawn the 1.06 slot 4% of the time, Overzet’s portfolio shows just 6% Jahmyr Gibbs exposure—lowest among Round-1 backs. His plan is to correct in a single stroke by selecting Gibbs in one of Underdog’s high-entry “Big Dog” drafts ($500 buy-in). That would spike his fee exposure without forcing him to chase shares across dozens of low-dollar entries, a tactic he thinks grinders should emulate when they’re light on a favorite early-round player.

With "no timeline to return" attached to Brandon Aiyuk, Overzet predicted a steady ADP bleed in July drafts. His guidance is to stay on the sidelines until the market fully adjusts to the uncertainty.

Pete Overzet said bearish injury chatter around Chris Godwin has yet to be fully baked into drafts. He expects a noticeable ADP slide once training-camp reports surface and recommended holding off until that discount arrives.

Overzet advised patience on Jordan Addison, stressing that a forthcoming suspension should continue to drag his ADP south. Loading up now simply locks in negative CLV when cheaper tags are almost guaranteed in a few weeks.

Pete Overzet reminded readers that Round-2 Rashee Rice shares are already underwater. Rice’s looming suspension has cratered his ADP to 37.5, giving those picks a –9.1 closing-line value in Pete’s own data pull. He warned that early Rice teams will have to beat opponents who can now draft the Chiefs wideout in the 4th or even 5th round, creating an immediate quality gap. The takeaway: if you missed the initial dip, keep fading until the news fully bottoms out the price.

Overzet called Keenan Allen the most obvious closing-line value play on the board, pointing out that his current ADP sits at 200.8 because he’s still a free agent. He compared the situation to J.K. Dobbins’ massive jump after signing with Denver and expects a similar "Dobbins-esque" rise the moment Allen lands anywhere. Pete’s advice: scoop Allen now while he’s essentially free, because it’s hard to imagine him getting any cheaper once news breaks.

Pete Overzet said drafters who are already heavy on Luther Burden (he’s at 20% exposure in Pete’s own portfolio) need to start grabbing Caleb Williams more aggressively, even if it means clicking the quarterback a round or two before ADP. Because Williams comes off the board first, waiting often leaves you stack-less when Burden slips past your next pick. Overzet noted that only 1.5% of his total teams have the Williams–Burden connection, a rate well below the community average. He plans to "star" Williams immediately after selecting Burden’s competitors or simply reach a few slots to guarantee the Chicago rookie duo and capture correlated upside for Week 17 shoot-out potential.

DeMeco Ryans loves fourth-round rookie Woody Marks’ hands and elusiveness, but the post-draft Nick Chubb signing leaves Marks fighting Joe Mixon, Chubb and Dameon Pierce for snaps. Overzet notes the only realistic path is a Nyheim Hines-style receiving role, yet even that seems crowded. After grabbing a few early shares, he is now flat-out avoiding Marks (1.8 % exposure) in Best Ball drafts until something changes in Houston’s crowded backfield.

Fourth-round pick Trevor Etienne (114th overall, Super Model 69, ADP 215.6) sits behind Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, but Dave Canales admitted the rookie has 'all his work cut out' and expects a 'great competition.' Etienne’s strong model grade and proven receiving chops make him the most appealing RB with an ADP north of 215, according to Overzet. He has not drafted him yet but plans to start sprinkling Etienne at the same clip as Tahj Brooks for upside swings.

Ollie Gordon (Round 6, pick 179, Super Model 65, ADP 215.6) once looked like a goal-line candidate behind De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright, but the Alexander Mattison addition relegates him to probable RB4 status. With no notable coachspeak to suggest otherwise, Overzet views Gordon as a blind leap of faith in a productive system—acceptable for rare sprinkles, yet far from a priority. He owns just 1.2 % exposure and is largely passing unless August usage shifts.

Sixth-round rookie Devin Neal (pick 184, Super Model 65, ADP 215.4) intrigued Overzet right after the draft because of Alvin Kamara’s age and Kendre Miller’s injury history. Once camp buzz painted Miller as the clear RB2, Overzet quit drafting Neal, explaining that it is hard to click a back who still needs an injury just to see the field. Exposure has fallen to 7.2 %, and Neal is now a watch-list name rather than an active target.

With no meaningful coachspeak and a depth chart featuring Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez, seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Super Model 60, ADP 215.2) is likely the RB3/4 in Washington. Overzet concedes there is contingent upside if injuries strike but sees little standalone role and is not drafting him (0.6 % exposure). The advice is to keep him bookmarked for waiver or late-summer ADP shifts, not to spend current Best Ball capital.

John Lynch described fifth-rounder Jordan James (pick 147, Super Model 66, ADP 214.7) as a powerful tackle-breaker with good hands, but Overzet notes the rookie is buried behind Christian McCaffrey and Isaac Guerendo. Like many past unheralded 49ers backs, a breakout is possible, yet James realistically requires two injuries for fantasy relevance. Overzet is fine with the occasional sprinkle for CMC-fade builds but currently holds only 0.6 % exposure and is largely passing until preseason clarity arrives.

Kyle Monangai (Round 7, pick 233, Super Model 58, ADP 214.7) earned praise from OC Ben Johnson for his attention to detail, but Overzet sees no clear path past D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. The rookie would need an injury plus a strong camp to matter, and weak draft capital further dampens the outlook. Overzet has drafted zero shares and will only reconsider if reports surface that Monangai is legitimately challenging Roschon for the No. 2 job.

Sixth-rounder Tahj Brooks (pick 193, Super Model 63, ADP 212.6) drew praise from OC Dan Pitcher, who said the rookie has been 'excellent' while Zack Moss was mentioned as an afterthought. Overzet believes Brooks could lock up the No. 2 early-down job behind Chase Brown, making his current price a bargain. While he is prioritizing higher-draft-capital sleepers like Hunter and Sampson, Overzet plans to mix Brooks in at similar frequency if camp confirms Moss’s irrelevance. Personal exposure is 1.8 % but trending upward.

Although Andy Reid complimented Brashard Smith’s route running and speed, Overzet is pumping the brakes on the Round 7 rookie (ADP 201.1, Super Model 65). Kansas City historically slow-plays rookies and Smith sits behind Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell for early-down work. The best-case path is a vacated Samaje Perine-style receiving role, but Overzet fears Smith will deliver zeros for most of the season. He already owns 8.4 % (largely via co-managed drafts) and plans to stop clicking the name until clearer preseason usage emerges.

Pete Overzet labeled Dylan Sampson (Round 4, pick 126, Super Model 69, ADP 198.9) his favorite late-round rookie RB. Kevin Stefanski said both Sampson and second-rounder Quinshon Judkins have 'done a great job of learning the system,' hinting at a true competition. Overzet thinks the talent gap is overstated—Judkins goes 120 picks earlier—and expects both rookies to get cracks at starter touches. He is exploiting the price disparity, holding 11.1 % exposure and predicting Sampson’s ADP will spike if the rookie flashes in camp.

Overzet is aggressively drafting fourth-round rookie Jarquez Hunter (ADP 196.3, Super Model 68). Sean McVay has praised Hunter’s ability to hit 'home runs' and said the back has made 'positive strides.' While Kyren Williams and Blake Corum occupy the top of the depth chart, neither offers Hunter’s explosion, creating a plausible early-season change-of-pace role with contingent upside if injuries hit. Hunter fits both Zero-RB builds and RB-heavy starts because he carries stand-alone big-play potential plus traditional handcuff equity. Overzet’s personal exposure sits at 13 %.

Pete Overzet called fifth-round rookie DJ Giddens (ADP 191.1, Super Model 67) a priority end-game target in 2025 Best Ball drafts. Shane Steichen raved about Giddens’ movement skills, vision and 'glider' running style, and the only back standing between him and real work is Khalil Herbert. Overzet noted Giddens offers almost no stand-alone value while Jonathan Taylor is healthy, but believes the rookie’s three-down skill-set gives genuine championship-winning upside if he secures the No. 2 role or a Taylor injury strikes. He is pairing Giddens with Colts QBs and is already 11.7 % exposed.

Pete Overzet said he has renewed optimism for rookie wideout Matthew Golden after digging into Jordan Love’s 2023 injury splits. When Love’s shoulder flared up last year, Green Bay shifted into a run-heavy ‘Josh Jacobs mode,’ but Overzet expects a healthier Love and the addition of Golden to nudge the Packers back toward their early-season pass rate. He believes an extra 3-4 pass attempts per game meaningfully lifts both Golden and Jayden Reed, giving Golden a viable route to mid-season spike weeks at a double-digit-round ADP. Overzet framed Golden as the classic late rookie who benefits from simple volume regression rather than needing an injury domino, making him an easy click in Best Ball Mania stacks with Love or as a standalone WR6/7.

Pete Overzet snapped up Christian McCaffrey at 1.02 and said the veteran back owns the single-biggest ceiling in Best Ball Mania because San Francisco’s receiver room is suddenly shaky. With Brandon Aiyuk locked in a contract squabble and Jauan Jennings hinting at a hold-out, Overzet believes Kyle Shanahan will lean even harder on McCaffrey as both a runner and de-facto slot option. McCaffrey already commanded 21 percent of 49ers targets last year; Pete expects that number to rise if Jennings misses any time and Aiyuk’s reps are limited in camp. He framed CMC as the rare first-round pick who can lead his own position in rushing TDs while also flirting with 100 catches—an outcome that would recreate his legendary 29-PPG season and justify passing on elite WRs at the top of drafts.

Pete Overzet said he is "betting against Rome right now" because Odunze’s price near pick 60 demands a Year-1 breakout that history says is unlikely, especially after a "pretty brutal" rookie season. Overzet prefers loading up on Luther Burden and Colston Loveland—both available after pick 100—alongside Caleb Williams. That trio lets drafters capture the same Bears ceiling at roughly a five-to-six-round discount and creates a unique late-round stack that few rooms will replicate. With DJ Moore sliding into the fourth and Caleb creeping past pick 100, Pete views Rome as the only Chicago piece still carrying an early-summer premium. Until Odunze falls in line with the rest of the offense, Overzet is fading him and reallocating exposure to the cheaper rookies who offer similar upside without crippling draft capital.

Pete Overzet endorsed nudging Aaron Jones up a few picks to secure him as the RB2 on Justin Jefferson builds. He grouped Jones with Isaiah Pacheco and Tony Pollard in the same flat veteran tier and argued the tiny ADP tax is worthwhile because it adds Week-17 correlation and roster uniqueness fewer drafters will copy. Overzet stressed that the veteran cluster projects almost identically, so sliding Jones ahead of four names is "no big deal" while the correlation bonus could separate a Best Ball Mania lineup in the playoff weeks.