Drew Martin backed Baltimore at +132 because Trevor Rogers is dealing right now. Rogers owns a 1.44 ERA and has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in seven straight outings. The left-hander has been nearly unhittable, giving up only five hits over his last 15 innings and 12 across his previous 28. Martin thinks bookmakers still undervalue the Orioles, especially against Ranger Suarez, whose reverse splits show a sparkling 1.40 ERA on the road but an ERA north of 4.00 at Citizens Bank Park. With getaway-day lineups shortening bullpens and an Orioles lineup he trusts to scratch a few runs, Martin risked 1 unit to win 1.32 units on the birds.

Eric Lindquist said he is looking to play Ranger Suarez over 18.5 outs at the +125 opening number in Baltimore-Philadelphia. Lindquist noted that manager Rob Thomson has repeatedly let Phillies starters work deep so the back-end bullpen can take the eighth and ninth, and Suarez has already cleared 19 outs several times under that script. With the plus-money price still hanging on a day game where pitch count leeway is expected, Lindquist believes the over is the best way to attack this matchup.

Bill Harrelson said to take Trea Turner for less than 1.5 total bases Tuesday. Turner has failed to clear this line in seven of his last eight contests and owns just one total base across his last five games. Harrelson highlighted that the shortstop has stayed under in 14 of the past 20 (70%) and in 67 of 110 games on the 2025 season (61%). Recent matchup data is equally bleak: Turner went 0-for-5 in yesterday’s 13-3 blowout of Baltimore and is 0-for-3 lifetime against Tuesday starter Dean Kremer, who is limiting right-handed hitters to a .249 average compared to .257 overall. Turner has also stayed under in nine of his last eleven home games. All the major pick-em apps are posting the same 1.5 line, so Harrelson views the under as a strong prop bet on PrizePicks/Underdog.

Kenny G said he is leaning toward the Phillies money-line at –145 because the matchup tilts their way on several fronts. Baltimore has fallen 11 games under .500 and owns the worst road total profile in baseball (24-34, biggest UNDER team away from home). Dean Kremer sits at 8-7 with a 4.27 ERA and has been tagged in two of his last three turns, including 5 ER by Colorado. The Orioles’ bullpen has exacerbated those issues. Philadelphia counters with Taijuan Walker and his 3.82 ERA; over his last five outings he has allowed 0-3 earned runs each time. While Kenny admits the Phils’ pen is shaky and their offense can disappear, they are still top-10 in scoring, 35-20 at Citizens Bank Park, and hold a 1.5-game NL-East lead. That combination of home dominance, the steadier starter, and Baltimore’s declining offense prompts Kenny to back Philadelphia, though it remains a light lean rather than a full-unit play.

Lindquist spotlighted Nick Castellanos as a strong target for homer and RBI props against Baltimore southpaw Cade Povich. Castellanos owns a 51.3% hard-hit rate and 13.5% barrel rate this season and locks into the clean-up spot every time Philadelphia faces a left-hander. Povich profiles as a ‘weak lefty’ with control issues, making Castellanos’ power metrics even more enticing for DFS and betting markets alike.

Just A Bet Outside backed Philadelphia’s team total over 2.5 against spot-starter Cade Povich. Game-time temps sit at 86° with a light breeze out, and Povich sports a 5.15 ERA, 74 hits in 64.2 IP, and 2-plus runs allowed in 9 of 12 outings. He struggles more versus righties, giving Trea Turner and the right-handed core an edge. Citizens Bank Park supercharges this offense: the Phillies have scored at least three runs in 45 of 55 home games, in 8 of their last 10 at home versus a lefty, and in 23 of 31 total games against southpaws. Add Povich’s .500 SLG allowed to left-handed bats (perfect for Schwarber and Harper) and the tout is confident Philly reaches three runs again.

For the second leg of his alternate totals play, Just A Bet Outside took Philadelphia over 2.5 runs with temps at 86° and a light breeze out. Left-hander Cade Povich has not pitched in the majors since June and returns carrying a 5.15 ERA, having been tagged for 74 hits in only 64.2 innings. He has allowed at least two earned in nine of twelve starts and is markedly worse against right-handed bats—the heart of the Phillies’ order. With Povich’s spotty command and limited swing-and-miss profile matched against a park-enhanced hitting environment, the tout is confident Bryce Harper and company can push across three or more runs.