Will Hill bet Ashton Jeanty Under 68.5 rushing yards. Although the rookie logged 19 carries in Week 1, he produced only 38 yards, and now faces a Chargers front that limited opposing running backs to 41 yards last week. Hill thinks the market overreacted to volume and is ignoring Las Vegas’ shaky offensive line.

Josh Shepardson advised betting the Chargers’ team total over 24.5 points on Monday Night Football. He noted OC Greg Roman’s surprising pass-heavy approach produced a league-high +15.2% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 1 and, dating back to Week 6 of 2024, a 59% situation-neutral pass rate that tied for fourth-highest. A similarly aggressive Raiders offense (9.5% PROE in Week 1) should fuel a shootout. Shepardson cited Justin Herbert’s history against Patrick Graham’s defenses: in five meetings with Graham’s Raiders from 2022-24 he averaged 254.2 yards, 7.58 ANY/A, eight TDs, one INT and only a 5.11% sack rate; he also torched Graham’s Giants for 275 yards and three scores in 2021. PFF graded Las Vegas’ coverage 23rd in Week 1, and analyst John Kosko ranked their secondary 32nd preseason. With Herbert rarely sacked and facing a unit Shepardson calls “suspect,” he projects Los Angeles to clear 25 points comfortably.

Dabbundo locked in Raiders +3.5, convinced Vegas can keep pace with a suddenly pass-centric Chargers attack. He highlighted that Brandon Staley’s defense lives in zone with two-high shells, a look that should push Aidan O’Connell & Co. toward high-percentage throws after the Raiders led Week 1 in explosive-pass rate against New England. On defense, Patrick Graham’s unit is finally healthy and just forced Drake Maye into one of his worst pro outings, sacking him four times and holding the Pats to 4.7 yards per play. Given the coaching edge Graham provides, plus an offense already flashing big-play capability, Dabbundo wants the field goal and hook in the second half of the Monday double-header.

MacMillan took Raiders +3.5 (–115, BetMGM) in a classic sell-high spot. Despite LA’s eye-catching win over Kansas City, their defense ranked only 23rd in opponent EPA and the overall Net Yards per Play was a modest +0.4. He calls Geno Smith "the model of consistency," giving Las Vegas a solid floor, and believes an underrated Raiders defense can keep Justin Herbert from pulling away on Monday night.

Chris Raybon said Justin Herbert belongs inside the top-five fantasy quarterbacks for Week 2. Raybon pointed to the Chargers posting the league’s second-highest pass rate over expected in Week 1, continuing a mid-2024 shift toward early-down aggressiveness. Herbert supplemented the volume with seven designed or scramble runs for 32 yards, showing the added rushing floor Raybon looks for in an elite QB1. With Rashawn Slater out and the ground game sputtering, Raybon expects Los Angeles to lean even harder on the pass against a Raiders defense he labeled "very exploitable." The deep receiving corps of Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkie and two drafted rookies gives Herbert multiple separation winners, and Raybon projects 35-plus attempts and top-5 upside on DFS slates at Las Vegas.