Chris Raybon moved Caleb Williams all the way up to QB10—seven slots above expert consensus—for Chicago’s trip to Detroit. He highlighted that the game will be played indoors, removing the wind concerns that capped Williams in his home debut. Williams opened Week 1 with nine straight completions and, more importantly, ripped off six scrambles for 57 yards and a touchdown, twice hitting 20 mph—something no other quarterback managed. Raybon noted that Ben Johnson’s uptempo scheme should push the Bears’ pass volume, while Detroit’s offense will force shoot-out game script. Williams already led the 2024 draft class in red-zone rushing scores, so Raybon expects him to pick up 30-plus ground yards with goal-line usage, giving him a Kyler-Murray-type fantasy profile and making him a clear start in season-long leagues and an under-rostered DFS tournament play.

Chris Raybon pushed Evan Engram outside his top-30 tight ends and recommended unloading him if anyone will bite. Raybon retraced Engram’s worrisome medical log: an injury in Week 1 last season that cost four games, a second injury eight games later that wiped out another four, and yet another knock suffered halfway through the current Week 1. Even when active, Engram has been a low-ceiling placeholder, averaging just 7.0 yards per catch on three receptions this year after marks of 7.8 (2024) and 8.4 (2023). Raybon noted that the 58-yard play Engram popped in the preseason “might be the longest catch of his career going forward.” Add in Sean Payton’s fondness for heavy-personnel rotations and the fact Engram just turned 31, and Raybon sees no path back to fantasy relevance—making him a drop or trade-for-whatever-you-can candidate.

Chris Raybon said Justin Herbert belongs inside the top-five fantasy quarterbacks for Week 2. Raybon pointed to the Chargers posting the league’s second-highest pass rate over expected in Week 1, continuing a mid-2024 shift toward early-down aggressiveness. Herbert supplemented the volume with seven designed or scramble runs for 32 yards, showing the added rushing floor Raybon looks for in an elite QB1. With Rashawn Slater out and the ground game sputtering, Raybon expects Los Angeles to lean even harder on the pass against a Raiders defense he labeled "very exploitable." The deep receiving corps of Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkie and two drafted rookies gives Herbert multiple separation winners, and Raybon projects 35-plus attempts and top-5 upside on DFS slates at Las Vegas.

Chris Raybon advised taking the under on De'Von Achane's 7.5 rushing-touchdown season-long prop. Raybon pointed to multiple red flags: 1) Raheem Mostert may be past his prime but is still trusted at the goal line, siphoning short-yardage work. 2) Achane is dealing with a preseason calf issue that could linger or flare up again, shrinking his volume ceiling. 3) Miami’s offensive line just lost its best blocker, Terron Armstead, which Raybon believes will hurt run-game efficiency inside the red zone. 4) He expects the Dolphins to face more negative game scripts than the market projects, tilting their offense toward the pass. Because Achane’s explosive plays are more likely to come through the air, Raybon thinks seven or eight ground scores is an optimistic projection and prefers the under.

Chris Raybon recommended betting Baker Mayfield under 30.5 passing touchdowns at FanDuel (-158) and would still play 29.5 or 28.5 if the juice flips. Mayfield has gone under 29 touchdowns in every season of his career except 2024, when Liam Coen’s red-zone play-calling helped him to 28. Coen is now in Jacksonville, Chris Godwin is entering camp less than 100 percent, Mike Evans is past age 30, and rookie standout McMillan is expected to miss roughly half the season. Quarterbacks average about one missed game and Mayfield is no lock to play 17 again. Raybon projects a mid-20s touchdown total and calls Mayfield “fantasy no-man’s land” as a QB7, making the under a multi-unit play.

Chris Raybon said to smash the under on Javonte Williams’ 525.5-yard rushing prop. Raybon noted that ever since Williams’ 2022 ACL tear he has been a shell of his former self, rattling off 2024 game logs such as 8-for-23, 11-for-17, 5-for-12, and a four-game stretch that totaled 14 carries for a single yard. Williams produced three separate games with one or fewer rushing yards and finished the season with lines like 6-15 and 4-24. Raybon called it a "basement-level floor" and reminded listeners the Cowboys have already cycled through veterans like Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott, a signal the staff is willing to turn the backfield over quickly if Williams sputters again. Add a likely timeshare and there is, in Raybon’s words, “no realistic path” to 500 yards, let alone 525.5.

Chris Raybon recommended Breece Hall under 5.5 rushing touchdowns at ‑150 on DraftKings. Hall has never topped five rush TDs despite playing 16 and 17 games the past two seasons, and Raybon expects his volume to be squeezed from several angles. Rookie bruiser Braylon Allen profiles as a short-yardage hammer who could siphon goal-line carries, while new quarterback Justin Fields is a proven red-zone runner who scored 14 rushing TDs the last three years. OC Tanner Engstrand showed a willingness to committee backs in Detroit, fueling concern Hall’s share of inside-the-five carries dips even if New York leans run-heavy overall. Raybon projects Hall to miss two or three games—more in line with his career usage—which would require an unrealistic spike in TD rate to clear this prop. Put it all together and the path to six rushing scores looks narrow.

Chris Raybon called Ollie Gordon the new Miami back to stash behind Devon Achane. Gordon has, in Raybon’s words, "looked much, much better" than Jaylen Wright on preseason reps, is healthy, and has handled passing-game work Wright never earned. Given Achane’s light frame and the Dolphins’ explosive offense, Raybon views Gordon as a high-ceiling bench piece in the double-digit rounds.

Raybon labeled Mayfield the ‘frozen-pond tier’ QB of 2025 drafts after a brutal August. Chris Godwin’s soft-tissue injury, rookie WR Jalen McMillan’s setback, and OC Liam Cohen’s departure strip away both weapons and scheme stability. Because Mayfield lacks elite passing efficiency and offers no rushing floor, Raybon is fading him in all formats, preferring the running quarterbacks drafted later.

Chris Raybon urged drafters to scoop up Marvin Mims before the market catches up. Mims was the PPR WR26 (WR28 in half-point) over last season’s final eight games despite running a route on only 39 % of dropbacks. This August he played more than 90 % of routes with the starting unit, confirming Payton now views him as an every-down option opposite Sutton. If that snap share holds Mims could triple last year’s playing time, giving him weekly boom potential even in an offense that may be volatile. Because he is still being selected outside the top-50 receivers, Raybon called him one of the best upside darts in the double-digit rounds for both season-long and best-ball formats.

Chris Raybon put the over/under at five games before Jaxson Dart supplants Russell Wilson. Raybon argued New York’s early-season slate is brutal, and once defenses roll coverage to the Giants’ No. 1 wideout they will need a passer who can threaten every level of the field while adding a rushing element. Wilson’s current style—deep bombs or check-downs—won’t cut it, whereas Dart’s legs and willingness to attack the middle open up the entire playbook. Raybon told listeners to stash Dart now in redraft and super-flex formats and be ready to deploy him in DFS showdowns the moment he’s named the starter.

Raybon advised allocating futures bankroll to Jacksonville at +300 instead of tying it up fading Tampa Bay. He reasoned that bettors get a much bigger payoff for what is essentially the same bet on "Cone"—his shorthand for the quarterback/offensive upside—being good, while the Buccaneers market sits near even money. In his view the Jaguars number bakes in their downside and still leaves plenty of ceiling if the offense clicks, making it the better value play.

Chris Raybon pushed back on Stuckey’s fade and said Washington is still an attractive plus-220ish NFC East bet even if the Giants are the bigger long-shot. He emphasized that WR Deebo Samuel’s conditioning looked much better in camp after a lost 2024 (pneumonia, weight issues), and that the attack never asked him to win with pure route running—speed and motion fit the scheme. The bet hinges on McLaurin returning healthy, Lattimore showing he isn’t washed, and Jayden Daniels maintaining last year’s accuracy, but Raybon believes the offensive ceiling is higher than the market implies. With Philadelphia staring at injury regression and Dallas shuffling coaches, he likes owning both a long Giants ticket and a smaller Commanders position to capture a division he sees as far more open than prices suggest.

Chris Raybon called Washington the best value play to win the NFC East. The division hasn’t had a repeat champion in 21 years, and Raybon thinks rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels provides a higher floor and ceiling than last season’s production, noting Daniels played hurt mid-year yet still flashed top-five EPA per play early in 2024. Assuming Terry McLaurin stays despite contract noise and with Kliff Kingsbury scheming, he expects a second-year leap for the offense. Meanwhile, Philadelphia inherits a tougher first-place schedule and lost multiple defensive starters. Given those dynamics, Raybon prefers a Commanders division future over chalk on Dallas or Philly.

Chris Raybon advised fading Minnesota’s win total and taking positions against them in divisional markets. He expects sharp regression from last year’s 9-1 record in one-score games and 33 takeaways, calling both numbers unsustainable. Raybon outlined fresh concerns: Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games; left tackle Christian Darrisaw and linemates Fariz and Kelly are battling injuries while a rookie guard is slated to start, making the offensive line volatile. He added that Justin Jefferson has already been dinged, Aaron Jones is in decline, and T.J. Hockenson did not look like himself after injury. Defensively, the team must lean on inconsistent corners such as Jeff Okudah and rookie Rogers. With a noticeably tougher schedule, two weeks overseas and every rival coaching staff (Campbell, LaFleur, Ben Johnson) rated as equal or superior, Raybon doubts Kevin O’Connell can coax another above-.500 finish. He is betting the Vikings win-total under and expects them to miss the playoffs.

Chris Raybon said Zach Ertz is being drafted far too late around TE19-20 and makes the perfect low-risk placeholder. Raybon noted that with Terry McLaurin’s status still unclear, Washington could lean on Ertz exactly the way they did last season when he quietly led the club in targets over several stretches. Because Ertz costs virtually no draft capital, managers can simply cut him if his age or health catches up, but Raybon expects a spike in Week 1 usage and sees a realistic path to replicating last year’s mid-TE1 production. He recommended waiting on tight end, selecting Ertz at the very end of drafts, starting him opening week, and then deciding whether to ride the volume or churn the roster.

Chris Raybon believes Zach Ertz is being dismissed too quickly. With Terry McLaurin’s status murky, Ertz could reprise last season’s role as Sam Howell’s preferred underneath option. Raybon recalled multiple weeks where Ertz led the Commanders in catches and emphasized that missed games don’t hurt as much in redraft formats—you simply replace him. For a player available in the late rounds who has already flashed double-digit-target upside, Ertz is an easy depth pick.

Chris Raybon pegged Brenton Strange as a classic late-round tight end who might simply win on route volume. He expects Strange to be Jacksonville’s starting TE and finish near the league leaders in routes run, similar to what Cade Otton delivered under Liam Cohn. That workload alone makes Strange draftable in all redraft formats, with room for more if Doug Pederson schemes him red-zone usage.

Chris Raybon reminded drafters that Dallas Goedert has ranked top-12 in points per game three straight seasons despite playing in a low-volume offense loaded with target competition. Goedert’s target-per-route rate sits north of 20 %, and he regularly logs 85-90 % of passing snaps, including postseason usage. The Eagles re-worked his contract this offseason, signaling full commitment. Raybon thinks the muddled ‘frozen pond’ tier after the big three TEs opens the door for Goedert to finish as the overall TE6, yet he often lasts beyond TE15 in drafts.

Chris Raybon said Matthew Golden is set up to become the Packers’ every-down No. 1 wideout immediately. Christian Watson is already ruled out for the start of the season and every other receiver on the roster—Jaden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks—has missed time with injuries. Raybon noted Doubs topped out around an 80 % route rate last year, whereas Golden “has a chance to be a 90 %-plus type of player.” Jordan Love quietly finished top-six in several efficiency metrics despite the early-season picks, and Raybon thinks Golden’s vertical skillset meshes perfectly with Love’s deep-ball accuracy. He’s drafting Golden outside the WR30 range but believes a healthy season could yield top-20, even top-15 fantasy numbers.

Raybon continued to pound the table for Matthew Golden, arguing the rookie could open 2025 as Green Bay’s top option by default. Christian Watson is already ruled out for Week 1, while Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks have each missed chunks of camp with various injuries. Golden, meanwhile, has taken every first-team rep available and was already praised by coaches as a plug-and-play Z receiver. Raybon said the path to an immediate target lead "was great back in May and is even clearer now," making Golden a late-round smash in redraft and best-ball formats alike.

Chris Raybon is pouncing on Zay Flowers wherever he slides out of the top-30 wide-receiver tier. Flowers logged a 90-plus-percent route rate as a sophomore and remains Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 target after the Ravens shifted Mark Andrews into more of a situational role. Raybon brushed off Baltimore’s public statements about "not needing" Flowers to rack up yardage, pointing instead to two straight productive seasons in run-heavy systems. He added that an aging Derrick Henry raises the odds Baltimore leans even further into Jackson’s arm if Henry misses any time. With no role change and elite usage metrics still intact, Raybon views current ADP slippage as noise and called Flowers a priority value pick.

Chris Raybon thinks Tyrone Tracy is a screaming value around RB30 while fantasy drafters chase rookie Scattaboo and overreact to Devin Singletary’s preseason goal-line carry. Tracy logged five straight touches with the starters in the first exhibition game and has looked like the most explosive back on the roster. With Daniel Jones and the rest of the Giants offense expected to take a step forward, Raybon believes Tracy can seize a majority share of early-down and receiving work, making him a cheap path to top-20 RB production.

Chris Raybon flagged D'Andre Swift as an unsexy but profitable pick after RB40. The Bears lost Roschon Johnson and multiple depth backs to camp injuries, leaving Swift as the only healthy runner with proven three-down chops. Chicago’s offensive line overhaul under Ben Johnson should boost run efficiency, and a new coaching staff has no reason to pigeonhole Swift as a mere passing-down specialist. Raybon expects a heavy early-season workload that could vault him into weekly RB2 territory before the market catches up.

Chris Raybon called Trevor Lawrence the best sleeper on the board, pointing out that he’s still going around QB19-20—or undrafted—despite a plausible Baker Mayfield-style rebound under new coordinator Liam Cohn. Cohn’s lone NFL stint saw Tampa jump from average to elite in red-zone efficiency and dramatically boost yards-after-catch, the two areas Lawrence has struggled most. Jacksonville already rostered Brian Thomas Jr. and added Travis Hunter, giving the former first overall pick his deepest pass-catching corps yet. Raybon expects frequent shootouts, likes Lawrence’s underestimated rushing ability, and believes fantasy managers will know within a few weeks if they’ve hit on a free QB1.

Raybon chose Thomas Fidone, a seventh-rounder "making the most noise in the preseason," as his end-game stab. He noted that Daniel Bellinger "might be on the outs," Chris Manhertz is strictly a blocker, and Greg Dulcich still hasn’t earned early-down trust—leaving Fidone a realistic pathway to snaps on one of the league’s thinnest tight-end depth charts. Even if Fidone opens on the practice squad, Raybon expects the Giants’ constant churn at the position to elevate him into fantasy relevance before bye weeks hit.

Chris Raybon said Colston Loveland is being selected outside the top-10 tight ends but carries true top-3 positional upside. He pointed to Ben Johnson importing the same rookie-friendly scheme that produced Sam LaPorta in Detroit, plus the presence of Caleb Williams—“probably the best quarterback of all these top rookies”—to turbo-charge Loveland’s efficiency and red-zone chances. Raybon framed the Bears’ situation as the cleanest depth chart among 2025 rookies, arguing that drafters are over-reacting to the historical bust rate at the position and ignoring Loveland’s immediate path to snaps and targets.

Chris Raybon said Colston Loveland is mis-priced at TE11 and should be drafted aggressively because Ben Johnson plans to feature him exactly the way he unleashed Sam LaPorta in Detroit. Raybon noted Johnson’s heavy use of play-action and TE motion to manufacture YAC, plus Caleb Williams’ accuracy over the middle, create a rookie season path to a top-three finish. Loveland’s 86th-percentile burst numbers and 24% college target share match Laporta’s pre-draft profile, and Chicago’s depth chart behind D.J. Moore is thin. Raybon concluded Loveland offers both Best-Ball spike-week potential and season-long stability well above his current ADP.

Chris Raybon told best-ball drafters this is the last chance to grab Tutu Atwell outside the top-100 receivers. With injuries piling up around the league and Rams depth uncertain behind Cooper Kupp, Raybon expects summer news to push Atwell’s ADP into the 50s. He values Atwell’s field-stretching role for spike-week upside and noted that wideouts in the WR80-100 bucket rarely own a clear lid-lifting skill like Atwell’s speed. Raybon advised locking him in now before the inevitable market correction.

Chris Raybon urged drafters not to ignore Wan’Dale Robinson, who is free in most drafts despite a clear runway to the Giants’ WR2 job behind Malik Nabers. Raybon emphasized that Darius Slayton runs low-percentage routes, the tight ends command modest target shares, and rookie Tyrone Tracy can’t soak up every short throw. Brian Daboll already manufactures gadget touches for Robinson, and Raybon believes an improved quarterback situation could let Robinson post Xavier-Worthy-type efficiency on shallow targets. Robinson is a zero-risk, PPR-friendly bench piece in the double-digit rounds.

Chris Raybon recommended Khalil Shakir as a cheap source of weekly reception floor now that reports say he’ll be ready for Week 1. Raybon reminded listeners that Shakir quietly averaged five catches per game down the stretch last season and profiles as the chain-moving option Allen leans on underneath. Because Shakir’s ADP has slipped during rehab, Raybon prefers him in redraft over flashier, boom-bust options in the same range, stressing that reliable targets early in the season can bridge the gap while high-ceiling rookies develop.

Chris Raybon said fantasy managers should buy Travis Hunter right now while his ADP is in free-fall, calling this “the bottom of his market.” Raybon has Hunter ranked WR31 and argued that is essentially his floor given the situation. He reminded listeners the Jaguars spent the No. 2 overall pick and “half their draft” to get him and will let him play virtually every snap on offense and defense. Raybon expects new OC Liam Coen—who took Tampa’s scoring from 21 to 29 points per game in one season—to unlock a pass-heavy attack. He compared Hunter’s outlook to Jalen McMillan’s 58-target campaign last year and projected roughly double that volume (≈116 targets) in an 80 % route role, giving Hunter legitimate top-5 fantasy upside. Raybon attributed the recent price dip to negative practice clips on social media and urged drafters in best ball and season-long leagues to act before the market corrects.

Chris Raybon ranks Travis Hunter WR28 and calls his WR33 ADP "his absolute floor." The No. 2 overall pick already logged an 80-plus percent preseason route rate in Liam Cohen’s system, and Raybon sees that continuing opposite Brian Thomas Jr. He considers Hunter a generational offensive talent capable of weekly top-12 finishes and would draft him over Odunze "a hundred times out of a hundred." As long as Hunter stays healthy, Raybon believes he is a locked-in fantasy starter.

Chris Raybon thinks Rome Odunze is over-drafted at WR32, ranking him WR43. He argues drafters are assuming both a year-two breakout and a seamless start for a brand-new Caleb Williams–Ben Johnson offense that also features established alpha DJ Moore. With Chicago integrating new linemen and a rookie quarterback, Raybon expects a slow first six weeks, limiting Odunze’s redraft utility. He prefers veterans like Jerry Jeudy or higher-upside swings like Travis Hunter in that range and views Odunze mainly as a best-ball stash.

Chris Raybon said Jameson Williams is a screaming value at his current mid-20s/low-30s ADP, slotting him at WR24 on his own board. He pointed to new coordinator John Morton publicly stating he wants to "throw deep," a direct fit for Williams’s 80-yard-TD skill set. Detroit was bottom-five in early-down pass rate under Ben Johnson, so even a slight tilt toward the air would spike Williams’s target count. The coaching staff is expanding his route tree and already pushed his snap rate to near every-down late last season, something Montgomery and LaPorta may not match because of their blocking duties. For Raybon, those ingredients create league-winning ceiling with very little floor risk for a fantasy WR3.

Chris Raybon’s deep-sleeper pick is Tutu Atwell, whose job as the Rams’ starting flanker is “his to lose.” Raybon reminded listeners that Atwell opened 2023 as an every-down player before the staff pivoted to Demarcus Robinson, a move Sean McVay publicly regretted. The coach backed that up by giving Atwell a one-year $10 million prove-it deal—serious money for a supposed gadget guy. Raybon expects Atwell to command targets at a Marvin Mims-style per-route rate, with spike-week upside from manufactured touches and vertical shots. A healthy Matthew Stafford or capable backup keeps the passing ecosystem intact, and with an ADP of 108 on Yahoo Atwell could jump into the top-50 receivers by October. Raybon urged drafters to scoop him anywhere he’s still free in double-digit rounds.

Chris Raybon has already shaved Rashee Rice’s projection down to 12.5 games because of possible league discipline and minor groin issues, yet Rice still ranks WR 23 in his model—the first time Raybon can recall a player expected to miss time remaining a clear value. Raybon believes the market routinely over-penalizes suspended players, forgetting that weeks missed early in the season coincide with peak roster health and no byes. Because Rice will be 100 percent when he returns, Raybon is comfortable drafting him even as a fourth receiver in redraft or as a differentiating WR1 in best-ball tournaments now that his ADP has fallen below teammate Xavier Worthy.

Chris Raybon placed George Pickens at WR 37, citing multiple red flags. He expects new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to be more run-heavy than Mike McCarthy, capping passing-game volume. Raybon also called Dallas a "circus environment" and said Pickens is one of the likeliest players to create a suspension-type headache, comparing the risk to former Steelers wideouts who imploded off the field. With uncertain pace, uncertain targets, and plenty of volatility, Raybon prefers safer "number-one" receivers such as Jauan Jennings in the same range and views Pickens mainly as a best-ball-only dart.

Chris Raybon said Courtland Sutton should "continue to eat" in fantasy line-ups because new Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has literally asked Sutton to speak up in the huddle any time he is not getting looks. Raybon pointed to last season’s squeaky-wheel moment when Sutton went from 0 targets in Week 7 versus the Saints to 11 targets, 8 receptions and 100 yards in Week 8 against the Panthers right after Nix made that pledge. The willingness of Nix to force-feed his preferred receiver, plus Sutton’s proven ability to convert volume into production, makes Raybon prefer Sutton over Xavier Worthy at their similar draft prices.

Chris Raybon ranked Courtland Sutton 21st at the position and called him the safest pick in a draft range littered with landmines. Sutton owns a 90% route rate under Sean Payton, just signed an extension, and is Bo Nix’s unquestioned first read. Raybon does not dock him for Denver’s offensive additions because the Broncos desperately needed more overall efficiency; he expects an improved Nix to funnel high-value perimeter and red-zone looks to his trusted veteran, keeping Sutton in weekly WR2 territory while offering protection against bust weeks at running back or wideout.

Chris Raybon believes the market is underrating Rashee Rice because of the possibility of league discipline. He has Rice inside his top-24 wide receivers even when he bakes in an assumption of only 12 games played, arguing that Rice will inherit the high-percentage targets Travis Kelce used to dominate now that the veteran tight end is in decline. If Rice avoids suspension entirely, Raybon expects him to lead Kansas City in targets and easily beat current ADP. The uncertainty is scaring drafters away, but Raybon sees a strong buying opportunity given Rice’s established chemistry with Patrick Mahomes and his role as the first read on the majority of quick-hitting concepts in Andy Reid’s playbook.

Chris Raybon is a tier lower on Xavier Worthy, slotting him at WR26 because he cannot trust the target share if Rashee Rice ultimately avoids suspension. Raybon noted that when both receivers were on the field last year Rice was the "clear winner," and Worthy’s full-season targets-per-route rate was just 18% despite his late-season surge. He also worries that additions such as Marquise Brown and Andy Reid’s deep rotation (Juju Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, the rookie Royals) muddy the volume outlook, while Kansas City’s attempt to revive its vertical game could force Worthy back into low-percentage downfield routes. Until the league rules on Rice, Raybon views Worthy as a volatile WR3 with a wide range of outcomes.

Chris Raybon targeted Jalen Royals at ADP 82 because multiple factors could force Kansas City to elevate the rookie quickly. The Chiefs are already dealing with injuries to Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice’s looming suspension, while JuJu Smith-Schuster projects as a run-blocking No. 4. Raybon trusts Andy Reid’s ability to integrate young receivers and believes Royals’ raw talent gives him a realistic shot at becoming fantasy-relevant this season. Although the price is rich, Raybon thinks the vacated targets and volatile WR depth chart create league-winning upside if Royals flashes in camp.

At WR197, Chris Raybon called Xavier Restrepo a "less-than-a-coin-flip" to record a catch but still loved the pick because the downside is basically zero: only about 202 receivers logged a reception last season. Restrepo reunites with college quarterback Cam Ward in Tennessee, giving him built-in chemistry that could help him crack the practice squad and eventually the 53-man roster if veterans fall off. Raybon pegged the probability of Restrepo catching a pass this year between 25% and 40%—high enough relative to cost—and said the selection also hedges his earlier investment in fellow Titans prospect I.O. Minor. In a league where injuries and depth churn open late-season roles, Restrepo offers a nearly free shot at meaningful snaps.

Chris Raybon targeted Lambert-Smith at WR89 because camp usage shows a cleaner runway to playing time than people think. The Chargers’ X/Z rotation has Quentin Johnston resting with starters but still inconsistent, while Keenan Allen is locked into the slot. Lambert-Smith, who has flashed in preseason action, sits directly behind Johnston and could leapfrog him if Johnston’s up-and-down play continues. Raybon argued Lambert-Smith has a realistic shot to enter the top-60 receivers and preferred him over deeper dart throws going outside the top-110.

Chris Raybon viewed Travis Hunter’s WR32 ADP as "basically his floor." Jaguars OC Liam Coen said Hunter will play more than 80 percent of snaps, and Hunter ran a route on 87 percent of Jacksonville dropbacks in the first preseason game. Raybon argued that such usage almost guarantees a top-36 finish if Hunter stays healthy, with legitimate top-10 upside should the athletic phenom continue to dominate targets.

Chris Raybon pivoted to Matthew Golden at WR44 after noting that Christian Watson (hamstring), Jayden Reed (walking boot), and Romeo Doubs (back) are all sidelined. With Green Bay’s depth chart "dropping like flies," Raybon believes Golden could enter Week 1 as the team’s de-facto number-one wideout. Even if the veterans return, Golden’s strong camp and preseason performance have him "earning it" on merit, giving him significant upside versus a mid-40s ADP.

Raybon warned drafters not to chase Nico Collins at his early-round ADP, citing several red flags that cap his upside. Collins has already missed time this offseason, and a shaky offensive line could hamper both C.J. Stroud’s efficiency and Collins’ down-field opportunities. Raybon also expressed concern over Stroud’s "up and down" preseason performances under a brand-new offensive coordinator, adding another layer of uncertainty. Because he cannot be high on every receiver in this tier, Raybon prefers pivoting to running-back values such as Kyren Williams, Chase Brown or Jonathan Taylor when the choice is Collins versus Malik Nabers. The combination of missed reps, protection issues and systemic change makes Collins a pass for Raybon at cost.

Chris Raybon called Amon-Ra St. Brown the least risky pick on the board at his current draft cost. Raybon pointed to three straight seasons of elite, nearly identical production – 106-119 receptions, 1,161-1,515 yards and 6-12 touchdowns – with no more than one missed game in any season. He argued that even if Jameson Williams makes "an even bigger leap," volume is more likely to be siphoned from Sam LaPorta than St. Brown. The only theoretical concern is the lack of an experienced backup now that Teddy Bridgewater is gone, but Jared Goff’s strong health history keeps that from materially lowering the floor. Raybon concluded St. Brown is a rock-solid pick wherever he goes in the first round of fantasy drafts.

Chris Raybon called St. Brown the rare first-round receiver with virtually no downside. Even if Detroit's scoring regresses, he expects Jared Goff to throw more, keeping St. Brown's route volume intact. Raybon scoffed at concerns over the coordinator change, arguing that St. Brown's ability to separate on every down and his league-leading route participation make him immune to small schematic shifts. He ranks the slot star WR6 and is happy taking him over injury-tagged players or pass-catchers tied to quarterback uncertainty.

Chris Raybon echoed the love for JSN, calling him an "absolute target monster" over the final 10 games of last season and noting even greater target upside with Metcalf and Lockett gone. Raybon emphasized that Smith-Njigba routinely slips outside the top-12 in drafts despite a usage profile that already looked like a high-end WR2 down the stretch. Raybon’s takeaway: pound JSN at current ADP while the market lags on his featured-receiver role.