Chris Raybon said he is flat-out passing on Cincinnati’s current flat-10 win total and plans to pounce once books inevitably hang a 9.5 after the Bengals stumble out of the gate. Raybon reminded listeners that Joe Burrow is an impossible-to-believe 1-9 straight-up in Weeks 1-2, a trend he expects to continue given the franchise’s habit of "sleep-walking" through September. He flagged multiple defensive red flags: the secondary remains the roster’s clear weak spot, and contract drama with Trey Hendrickson and D.J. Reader (whom Raybon said “Bengal fans worry might retire rather than play cheap”) has soured locker-room vibes. The road slate—at Buffalo, Green Bay, Denver, Minnesota, Miami, Baltimore and Pittsburgh—offers few soft spots, so Raybon doubts Cincinnati can claw back to 10-7 even if the offense remains explosive. His actionable plan: let the market drift to 9.5 after another slow start, then lay the juice on the under or sprinkle alt-unders and "most points allowed" props because the secondary projects as a weekly liability.

Chris Raybon advised fading Detroit’s 10.5-win total and even sprinkling on the Lions to miss the playoffs at roughly +200. He rattled off a laundry list of red flags: (1) Road gauntlet that includes trips to Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, Washington and late-season visits to both Chicago and Minnesota, leaving only the Giants and Browns as soft spots. (2) Interior offensive line gutted – Zeiler and Frank Ragnow are gone and a rookie now anchors center, the exact type of protection Jared Goff struggles without. (3) Massive coaching brain-drain with OC Ben Johnson and passing-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand both departing, plus a defensive-staff shake-up. (4) Defensive volatility – unit finished top-five in DVOA but surrendered nearly 50 points to a rookie QB in its first playoff game, illustrating a low floor. (5) Pythagorean over-performance of +2 wins; since 2002, teams that overshoot by two or more are just 14-30 (32%) to the next-year OVER. (6) Division strength – Raybon is higher on Green Bay and Chicago, making a repeat run less likely. He even flagged Jameer Gibbs’ outsized 2023 workload (league-leading TDs, 2,000 scrimmage yards) as fragile. All told, Raybon projects meaningful regression and calls the UNDER and ‘miss playoffs’ props the best ways to monetize it.

Chris Raybon called Buffalo his favorite Super Bowl futures bet in the AFC, citing the league’s fifth-easiest strength-of-schedule and an unusually friendly layout: road slate features Houston and Pittsburgh while the toughest opponents—Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati—must all visit Orchard Park. That setup gives the Bills what Raybon believes is the cleanest path to the conference’s No. 1 seed, a huge edge under the current playoff format. Buffalo has cashed its win total OVER in seven of the last eight seasons and is 3-0 to the OVER since 2021, trends Raybon attributes to a well-run front office and coaching staff that consistently beats preseason market expectations. Although he personally avoids betting Overs at 11.5, he endorsed any strategy that pairs a modest win-total position with a larger Super Bowl ticket, arguing the market will react sharply if the Bills are in line for home-field advantage by Thanksgiving.

Chris Raybon leaned UNDER on Baltimore’s 11.5 win total, arguing that last year’s immaculate health is almost certain to regress. The 2023 Ravens got 17 games from Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry (then with the Titans, now in Baltimore), Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and four of five starting linemen; Raybon called that “pure luck” for a team historically ravaged by attrition. He also pointed out how much had to break right: Zay Flowers played every game until a late-season tweak, Odafe Oweh and Marcus Williams logged heavy snaps despite grading poorly, and Brandon Stephens was one of PFF’s worst corners yet still exceeded 1,000 snaps. Layer on a schedule that closes @Bengals, vs. Patriots, @Packers, @Steelers plus road dates with Buffalo and Kansas City earlier in the year, and Raybon doesn’t see a wide enough path to 12-5 in the AFC North gauntlet.

Chris Raybon said he would only play Kansas City’s win-total UNDER at the current 11.5 because the roster has more soft spots than usual. He flagged a rebuilt offensive line that still needs JC Latham or Kingsley Suamataia to win starting jobs and push the penalty-plagued Jawaan Taylor to swing tackle. He also noted the lack of a proven early-down back—Elijah Mitchell and UDFA Treshawn Ward are competing behind Isiah Pacheco—which could leave the offense one-dimensional. Raybon expects the Chiefs to stumble out of the gate thanks to a brutal first nine weeks (home vs. Eagles, Ravens, Lions, Commanders; road at Bills; neutral-site game vs. Chargers in Brazil). His plan is to pass on the current Super Bowl number and buy in once those early losses fatten the price, a strategy he is already employing with smaller pre-season wagers on Buffalo and Baltimore.

Chris Raybon urged bettors to fade the Eagles at their 11.5-win total and to sprinkle against them in the NFC East futures market. His reasoning: (1) the division has not produced a back-to-back champion since 2004, so historical precedent is firmly against Philadelphia repeating; (2) the roster lost high-impact defenders Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay, Oren Burks, Isaiah Rogers, and Bryce Huff, each of whom graded top-40 at their positions at PFF last season; (3) offensive-coordinator turnover adds another layer of uncertainty; (4) the schedule is brutal, featuring road trips to Kansas City and Buffalo plus matchups with Detroit, the Chargers, and Green Bay, leaving almost no soft landing spots; and (5) Raybon believes 10 wins—possibly even nine—could still take the division, so the margin for error on 11.5 is razor-thin. All told, he projects roughly 10.0 wins and recommends an UNDER or a full fade in division-winner parlays.

Chris Raybon advocated grabbing Arizona at +425 to win the NFC West, arguing the Cardinals could out-pace both the Rams and 49ers in regular-season wins even if he trusts those clubs more in January. His case: Jonathan Gannon’s defense already dragged a bottom-five roster to league-average efficiency and just added four top-70 draft picks plus veteran depth on the line and at corner. Offensively, Kyler Murray’s legs pair with a top-five rushing design, Trey McBride’s breakout, and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s field-stretching ability to create a higher weekly floor than people realize. The schedule is friendlier than the market assumes—an indoor-heavy slate and early soft landings versus New Orleans and Carolina give a rebuilt roster time to gel. Meanwhile San Francisco carries injury-cluster risk and a thin WR room, Los Angeles hinges on 36-year-old Matthew Stafford staying healthy, and Seattle is a quarterback/offensive-line mess. Raybon projects enough paths to 10-plus wins that the 19% implied probability on the division crown is "flat-out wrong" and prefers this futures route over a juiced 8.5 win total.

Chris Raybon advocated grabbing Arizona at +425 to win the NFC West, arguing the Cardinals could out-pace both the Rams and 49ers in regular-season wins even if he trusts those clubs more in January. His case: Jonathan Gannon’s defense already dragged a bottom-five roster to league-average efficiency and just added four top-70 draft picks plus veteran depth on the line and at corner. Offensively, Kyler Murray’s legs pair with a top-five rushing design, Trey McBride’s breakout, and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s field-stretching ability to create a higher weekly floor than people realize. The schedule is friendlier than the market assumes—an indoor-heavy slate and early soft landings versus New Orleans and Carolina give a rebuilt roster time to gel. Meanwhile San Francisco carries injury-cluster risk and a thin WR room, Los Angeles hinges on 36-year-old Matthew Stafford staying healthy, and Seattle is a quarterback/offensive-line mess. Raybon projects enough paths to 10-plus wins that the 19% implied probability on the division crown is "flat-out wrong" and prefers this futures route over a juiced 8.5 win total.

Chris Raybon floated an extreme fade of Seattle, saying the only angle that interests him is an alt-under 5.5 wins or a “worst record in the NFC” flyer at juicy odds. Raybon has the Seahawks favored in just four games and calls the rest of the schedule a sea of coin-flips (11 contests with spreads inside a field goal). He listed every structural issue: Sam Darnold is the placeholder QB behind a patched-together interior line that could start a rookie guard and still lacks a reliable center, a brutal matchup for a passer who crumbles under A-gap pressure. The wide-receiver room is downgraded without DK Metcalf, counting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be the alpha while a “probably washed” Cooper Kupp slides into a complementary role. Raybon likes Mike Macdonald’s defense but thinks that unit merely raises the floor from catastrophic to merely bad if the offense stalls. Seattle rode 6-2 luck in one-score games to 10 wins last season; his power numbers peg them at 7.8 this year with far more downside than upside. Because the market sits at 7.5/8 with heavy over juice, he believes hunting the long-shot alt under or worst-record prop captures the tail risk the public is ignoring.

Chris Raybon floated an extreme fade of Seattle, saying the only angle that interests him is an alt-under 5.5 wins or a “worst record in the NFC” flyer at juicy odds. Raybon has the Seahawks favored in just four games and calls the rest of the schedule a sea of coin-flips (11 contests with spreads inside a field goal). He listed every structural issue: Sam Darnold is the placeholder QB behind a patched-together interior line that could start a rookie guard and still lacks a reliable center, a brutal matchup for a passer who crumbles under A-gap pressure. The wide-receiver room is downgraded without DK Metcalf, counting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be the alpha while a “probably washed” Cooper Kupp slides into a complementary role. Raybon likes Mike Macdonald’s defense but thinks that unit merely raises the floor from catastrophic to merely bad if the offense stalls. Seattle rode 6-2 luck in one-score games to 10 wins last season; his power numbers peg them at 7.8 this year with far more downside than upside. Because the market sits at 7.5/8 with heavy over juice, he believes hunting the long-shot alt under or worst-record prop captures the tail risk the public is ignoring.

Chris Raybon said the smartest way to attack the Rams is with a Super Bowl future, not the win-total or division line. He pointed out that eight straight Super Bowls have featured some combination of Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Tom Brady, the Chiefs, the Eagles, or the one-off Bengals run—so history already likes the Rams’ coaching/QB combo. Raybon’s raw numbers spit out 9.8 wins against a 9.7 market but he argued the ceiling is much higher than that median because: • Matthew Stafford looked shockingly spry down the stretch (even outdoors in Philly) and still ranked top-10 in EPA per play when kept clean. • A potential Devante Adams addition would give McVay his best X-receiver since prime Cooper Kupp, and Stafford has always thrived with perimeter alphas. • Sneaky depth moves—Poona Ford on the interior, Nate Landman at linebacker, Tyrique “T-Farg” Ferguson as an edge rotational piece—plug the roster’s biggest holes without eating cap. • The front office keeps nailing middle-round picks, allowing L.A. to survive the occasional miss and paper-thin draft capital. Raybon conceded the red flags: an average-to-hard schedule (toughest in the NFC West), serious depth issues if injuries pile up, and a still-suspect secondary. Even so, he believes McVay/Stafford plus top-10 offensive efficiency provides a path to another NFC title in a conference bereft of juggernauts. At 25-1 to 30-1 in most shops he called a half-unit Super Bowl sprinkle his preferred way to get exposure while bypassing the razor-sharp win total.

Chris Raybon told listeners he already added a 49ers Super Bowl future at 16-to-1, calling it the only NFC team outside the Eagles and Chiefs that consistently punches a ticket in February. He noted that eight straight Super Bowls have featured some combination of Tom Brady, Philadelphia, Kansas City, the Bengals, the Rams or San Francisco, underscoring Kyle Shanahan’s proven postseason floor. Raybon’s model ranks the Niners dead-last in schedule difficulty—an enormous swing from a top-five gauntlet in 2024—and credits them with zero negative rest spots. He expects massive positive regression after last season’s 2-6 record in one-possession games and crippling injury luck (No. 1 in Adjusted Games Lost). With a new special-teams coordinator fixing 2024’s league-worst unit and Robert Saleh back in the building to tighten a defense that did shed high-priced veterans, Raybon believes the path to a top-two NFC seed is wide open. The roster question marks at linebacker, safety and WR3 are real, but he trusts Shanahan to scheme around them and thinks the current 6.0% implied championship probability undervalues San Francisco’s ceiling.

Chris Raybon said the only Tampa ticket he is interested in right now is a tiny futures flutter at 35-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. His power-ratings give the Bucs the NFL’s 28th-easiest schedule and he still believes they are the class of a shaky NFC South. The roster is largely unchanged—Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs are back, the draft added another first-round wideout plus secondary depth, and Todd Bowles has shown he can scheme with the big boys (wins over Philly and Detroit last year despite going just 3-5 in one-score games). Raybon concedes concerns: Liam Coen replaces Dave Canales, and the offensive-line depth thinned a bit, but he thinks those worries are baked into the price. With Atlanta hinging on an untested Michael Penix Jr. and Carolina’s defense still paper-thin, Raybon believes Tampa’s path to the playoffs—and thus a long postseason run in a wide-open NFC—is far clearer than the 2.8% implied title odds.

Chris Raybon recommended laying the short price (-110 to even money) on Tampa Bay to win the NFC South. He sees a clear tier gap between the Bucs and the rest of the division: Todd Bowles’ defense returns almost every key piece, Baker Mayfield has continuity with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the front office patched its two main holes by locking up left tackle Tristan Wirfs and drafting versatile back Bucky Irving. Raybon’s power-ratings give Tampa a 58 % chance to take the crown, implying the fair line should be around ‑140. Schedule strength is another edge—his model ranks the Bucs 28th in difficulty thanks to six games against Carolina, New Orleans, and a still-retooling Atlanta squad plus a soft AFC South crossover. He acknowledged new OC Liam Coen is a mild downgrade from Dave Canales but noted Coen’s Rams offenses finished top-10 in EPA/play when Stafford was healthy. With no other South team projecting above 8.0 wins, Raybon said locking in Tampa division futures now avoids the juice that will appear once they start 3-0 against Washington, Carolina, and Las Vegas.

Chris Raybon said he is sprinkling the Packers at +280–+310 to win the NFC North and adding a smaller Super Bowl flyer (~35-1) because the conference has no true juggernaut and Detroit is overpriced. Raybon rattled off a laundry list of bullish indicators: • Jordan Love finished 5th in QBR (69.3), 4th in net yards per attempt (7.5) and 3rd in sack rate (3.2%) despite playing hurt for stretches, taking only 14 sacks in 15 starts. • The offensive line should jump a tier if Elgton Jenkins slides to center; rookie Marshawn Lloyd gives them their most explosive RB2 since Aaron Jones’ prime. • Jeff Hafley’s first season pushed the defense from 27th to 7th in DVOA while generating the NFL’s No. 1 blitz/stunt pressure rate. • Matt LaFleur is 5-1 to the win-total over, beating the market by 1.8 wins a year. He did flag two landmines—Green Bay still needs natural edge pressure and the cornerback room looks shaky after cutting Jaire Alexander (opponent passer rating jumped from 71 with him to 111 without)—but believes those concerns are already baked into the price. With the Lions an injury or two away from collapsing and Minnesota breaking in a rookie QB, Raybon likes using a half-unit package: one-third on the division, one-third on an NFC ticket in the low-20s range, and the rest on a Super Bowl stab.

Chris Raybon echoed the fade, pegging Detroit at 9.9 wins—more than a full game below the 10.5 market. He listed a gauntlet of issues: 1) a top-three strength-of-schedule that includes 11 opponents who made last year’s playoffs; 2) the loss of OC Ben Johnson and pass-game guru Tanner Engstrand, which forces Jared Goff to break in an entirely new brain-trust; 3) a gutted interior offensive line after Frank Ragnow’s retirement and two rookie guards; 4) defensive and special-teams regression after finishing fifth and first respectively in DVOA despite lacking elite talent; and 5) the historical reality that teams with double-digit win totals only repeat 45 % of the time since 2002. Raybon added that Detroit’s seven one-score wins and league-best special-teams ranking are classic mean-reversion triggers. With so many statistical alarms blaring, he labeled the Lions the most overvalued team in the NFC futures market and prefers an UNDER or a miss-playoffs flier over any pro-Detroit wager.

Chris Raybon said he is leaning UNDER on Minnesota’s 2025 win total (market 8.5) and will almost certainly have some sort of fade ticket in pocket by the time camps open. He only projects 7.9-8.0 victories and rattled off a laundry list of red flags. First, the schedule: his numbers make it the third-hardest in the league with a post-bye gauntlet of Eagles, at Chargers, at Lions, Ravens, at Packers, at Seahawks, Cowboys, Giants, plus two more with Detroit. Second, regression: the Vikings went 9-1 in one-score games and out-kicked their Pythagorean expectation by 2.9 wins; since 2002 teams that over-perform by two or more wins have cashed their OVER only 32 % of the time the next season (14-30-3). Third, Kevin O’Connell will be breaking in rookie QB J.J. McCarthy after the club alternated 14- and 7-win seasons the past two years—Raybon thinks 2025 looks much closer to the seven-win side of that pendulum. Add in an early Week-6 bye that forces McCarthy to navigate the hardest part of the slate with minimal downtime and Raybon sees far more downside than upside on the current number.

Chris Raybon said the only Washington ticket he could stomach on the plus side is their +600-ish price to win the NFC East. He already projects a modest 9.4 wins and is betting their regular-season UNDER because the Commanders draw a gauntlet of playoff-caliber opponents, but he acknowledged considerable upside if several boom-or-bust veterans actually stay healthy. He rattled off the potential swing pieces: Laremy Tunsil stabilizing one tackle spot, a bounce-back year from Deebo Samuel giving Jayden Daniels a true YAC weapon, and better overall health from the aging defensive core. Pair that ceiling with the historical chaos of an East that has not had a repeat champ in more than two decades plus the fact that Philadelphia lost both coordinator continuity and key depth, and Raybon believes the Commanders are the non-chalk team most capable of spiking a division title. Because that outcome is already baked into a win-total OVER or playoff-yes price, he argues the best pure value is the lotto-ticket division bet while fading them everywhere else.

Chris Raybon echoed the under sentiment on Philadelphia, projecting 10.8 wins himself. His focus was the schedule: every road trip is a hornet’s nest (Chiefs, Bills, Chargers, Buccaneers, Packers, Vikings) – all 10-win clubs from last season. Home isn’t a picnic either with Detroit, the Rams and an upgraded Bears roster visiting. Depth has eroded after losing Sweat, Gardner-Johnson, Isaiah Rodgers, Milton Williams and both interior swing linemen, while offseason additions (Azeez Ojulari, Adoree Jackson, Josh Uche) are largely reclamation projects. Raybon also noted defense regresses faster than offense and those explosive Saquon-sparked TD runs are unlikely to hit at the same rate. Add OC turnover to the mix and he leans firmly to the under, just not betting it yet in early June.

Chris Raybon echoed the under sentiment on Philadelphia, projecting 10.8 wins himself. His focus was the schedule: every road trip is a hornet’s nest (Chiefs, Bills, Chargers, Buccaneers, Packers, Vikings) – all 10-win clubs from last season. Home isn’t a picnic either with Detroit, the Rams and an upgraded Bears roster visiting. Depth has eroded after losing Sweat, Gardner-Johnson, Isaiah Rodgers, Milton Williams and both interior swing linemen, while offseason additions (Azeez Ojulari, Adoree Jackson, Josh Uche) are largely reclamation projects. Raybon also noted defense regresses faster than offense and those explosive Saquon-sparked TD runs are unlikely to hit at the same rate. Add OC turnover to the mix and he leans firmly to the under, just not betting it yet in early June.

Chris Raybon expects second-round pick Tyler Shough to win the Saints’ three-way quarterback competition and start Week 1. Shough is the oldest QB in this rookie class and was widely labeled the most pro-ready passer behind Cam Ward, a profile Raybon says teams do not sit on the bench. Moore has already praised Shough pre-snap command, hinting the offense will borrow Moore’s trademark up-tempo approach that produced top-10 situation-neutral pace with both Dallas and the Chargers. While Raybon conceded Shough may struggle to "maximize" the playbook immediately, the volume alone (Moore offenses have averaged 37.8 passes per game) places Shough on the superflex radar and makes him a viable QB3 stash in best-ball tournaments where every late spike matters.

Chris Raybon said Dyami Brown is a best-ball free square because Liam Cohen plans to mimic his 2023 Bucs playbook that regularly trotted out four wide receivers and peppered backs on check-downs. Jacksonville’s WR4 should see real snaps after Brown signed a two-year, $10 million deal identical to Tutu Atwell’s in Los Angeles, a signal Cohen views him as more than depth. Raybon reminded listeners that Tampa’s WR4 produced three usable fantasy weeks last year and argued Brown’s career 14.9-yard aDOT and 4.45 speed give him weekly home-run potential if Trevor Lawrence logs the anticipated volume bump. At a near-undrafted ADP, Raybon advised scooping Brown in the final two rounds of best-ball drafts whenever stacking Jaguars.

Chris Raybon framed Christian Kirk as “this offense’s Cooper Kupp.” He pointed out that every branch of the McVay tree leans on a slot-centric alpha, and new OC Nick Caley just spent two seasons scheming Kupp and Puka Nacua into 30-plus percent target shares. Raybon expects Caley to copy-paste those layered option routes for Kirk, who owns a career 2.05 yards-per-route mark from the slot. With Tank Dell’s recovery doubtful and rookie wideouts Higgins and Noel still learning, Raybon believes Kirk could open 2024 commanding double-digit targets most weeks. He projected 115–120 looks and labeled Kirk a screaming value in Round 8 of best-ball and PPR drafts as a safe WR3 who can post WR1 spike weeks.

Chris Raybon pointed out that Taysom Hill’s late-season knee surgery is expected to sideline him for all of 2024, removing the gadget QB who siphoned nine red-zone carries and six touchdowns from Alvin Kamara last year. With Hill gone and Moore historically preferring traditional red-zone concepts (his Dallas units ranked bottom-six in QB rush attempts inside the five), Raybon projects Kamara’s share of goal-line touches to jump from 38 % to roughly 65 %. Even if the overall offense is volatile, that touchdown infusion vaults Kamara back into mid-RB2 territory for season-long leagues and gives him weekly ceiling in best-ball formats where TD variance is king.

Raybon noted that as Beychal Tutin hype snowballs, drafters are letting Travis Etienne slide two to three rounds in best-ball rooms—even though Liam Cohen’s Tampa backfield supported two fantasy-viable runners (Rachaad White and Bucky Irving) in the same game. Cohen has publicly stressed throwing to the backs and Jaguars insiders keep floating trade rumors around Etienne, but Raybon thinks those whispers are suppressing price more than actual touch probability. He reminded listeners that Etienne still owns 4.45 speed, a 10% career target share and Jacksonville declined his fifth-year option, giving the club every incentive to showcase him before 2025 free agency. With goal-line vulture Tank Bigsby also discounted, Raybon called the entire trio a portfolio play and recommended scooping whichever Jaguar back falls past ADP in best-ball builds.

Chris Raybon compared Stefon Diggs’ 2024 outlook with the Patriots to Davante Adams’ first year under Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. Adams commanded a 32% target share and led the NFL in touchdown catches at age 30. Raybon argued a similar funnel is in play because New England’s surrounding pass-catchers are thin and McDaniels historically features a true WR1 (Adams, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas). Diggs still posted a 26% target share and top-15 open-rate in Buffalo before an injury-marred finish, so Raybon sees talent erosion as overstated. With Drake May willing to pepper a favorite read, Raybon believes Diggs retains top-five weekly upside and labeled him a priority pick in Rounds 4-5 of best-ball drafts where ceiling matters most.

Chris Raybon said the Lions’ third-round selection of Arkansas wideout Isaac Teslaw — a receiver praised mostly for his run-blocking — signals that Detroit may lean even harder on the ground game under new OC John Morton. Raybon noted that Teslaw’s blocking chops plus Ben Johnson’s departure make it logical to shift volume toward the backfield. A heavier run rate would funnel extra carries and screens to Jahmyr Gibbs, who already owns the league’s fourth-highest explosive-run rate (12% of totes went 10+ yards). Raybon called Gibbs the primary beneficiary of a "keep it on schedule" offense, projecting a bump from last year’s 14.5 touches per game to 17-18 and reinforcing him as a second-round smash in both best-ball and season-long formats.

Chris Raybon advised moving off Cole Kmet because Ben Johnson typically uses only one pass-route-running tight end. Detroit averaged 1.08 TE routes per snap under Johnson, leaving Brock Wright around a 30 % route share when Sam LaPorta was healthy. Raybon pointed out that even with a 90 % route rate last year, Kmet often logged zero-target games (the "Cade Otton award"). With heavy competition from DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and rookie Colston Loveland, Raybon doesn’t see enough targets for Kmet to break spike-weeks in best-ball or hold TE1 value in season-long.

Chris Raybon doubled-down on his earlier rookie-QB stance, saying the Giants’ public commitment to Russell Wilson is mostly image control orchestrated by Wilson’s camp. He expects the organization to pivot to Jackson Dart quickly—if not in Week 1 then shortly thereafter—because Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are unlikely to waste snaps on Jameis Winston once inevitable early losses pile up. Raybon pointed to four brutal openers (at Washington, at Dallas, vs Kansas City, vs the Chargers) that could leave New York 0-4 and make the PR cost of an early switch negligible. He reminded listeners of Pittsburgh’s 2023 ‘mysterious Wilson injury’ that handed Justin Fields six starts as precedent for how a behind-the-scenes agreement can keep veteran optics clean while the staff moves to the youngster. For fantasy and Best Ball drafters he recommends grabbing Dart in the last rounds before camp buzz spikes his price, and for bettors he suggests fading the Giants ATS in September on the assumption that a mid-game QB change is firmly in play.

Chris Raybon warned that Las Vegas draws one of the nastiest rest-disadvantage gauntlets he can remember to open a season and wants no part of Raider tickets in Weeks 1-4. He rattled off the specifics: Week 1 at New England, who enjoy three extra preparation days after a Friday kickoff in Brazil; Week 2 versus the Chargers on Monday night while L.A. comes off the same Brazil game and therefore has nine days’ rest; Week 3 at Washington, whose Thursday night outing gives them a mini-bye; and Week 4 against Chicago, a club that immediately heads into its own bye and historically empties the playbook before the week off. Raybon’s database shows teams facing back-to-back-to-back opponents on 8-plus days of rest cover only 41 % since 2000, and he projects the Raiders to be underdogs of at least a field goal in each contest. His recommendation is to fade Las Vegas ATS early, sprinkle an in-season UNDER on their live win total if they somehow steal Week 1, and revisit the Silver-and-Black once the schedule normalizes after October.

Chris Raybon called Cleveland’s slate "Super-Bowl-level difficult" and suggested betting the Browns UNDER their posted win total. Before their Week 10 bye, Cleveland faces Tennessee, Baltimore, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Miami and New England—seven teams that finished 2023 in the top half of DVOA. Things do not ease up: out of the bye they travel to the Jets and Raiders and host Baltimore and San Francisco. Raybon questioned where the easy victories are outside of the Browns’ customary upset of Cincinnati in Week 1. Because 13 of 17 games kick at 1 p.m. ET, the schedule offers little chance to exploit rest-edge or time-slot variance, further lowering their ceiling in his projections.

Chris Raybon advised bettors to be cautious with full-season Charger futures and to look for spots to fade Los Angeles after mid-season. The Chargers will log the most air miles in the league, including cross-country swings to Miami, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Raybon emphasized that the roster skews toward big-bodied players—Mike Williams, Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, even the use of a fullback—and that type of build has historically struggled to stay healthy when paired with heavy travel. Los Angeles finished 30th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost last year, and Raybon believes a similar attrition pattern could surface once the mileage adds up, making UNDER win-total bets and second-half fades attractive.

Chris Raybon argued that rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart should be treated as the odds-on favorite to open the season under center for the Giants—even if Brian Daboll has yet to name a starter—because the schedule leaves almost no soft landing spots later in the year. New York does not get a bye until Week 14 and faces what Raybon called ‘a murderers’ row’ of defenses: at Dallas, Kansas City, the Chargers, at New Orleans, Philadelphia, at Denver and San Francisco all before December. If Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston begin the campaign 1-7—as Raybon’s power-ratings model projects—the staff would be forced to throw Dart into the fire on short rest or elevation road games, scenarios rookie QBs historically flunk (38 % ATS for debuts in Denver). By contrast, starting him in Week 1 gives a full camp to build the playbook around his mobility and lets Daboll lean on Saquon Barkley against Washington’s shaky front. Raybon’s takeaway for fantasy gamers is to grab Dart in the final rounds of Best Ball drafts and in deep SuperFlex leagues, banking on 17 potential starts at a QB3 price.

Chris Raybon slotted rookie Jaydon Blue at RB40 and urged drafters to attack unsettled backfields after the top 36 backs come off the board. Dallas currently leans on inefficient veterans—Raybon cited Miles Sanders’ 3.5 YPC and sub-6.0 YPR over the last two seasons and noted similarly poor production from the rest of the room—leaving a clear path for Blue. At roughly 200 lbs, Blue flashed pass-game chops and elusiveness at Texas despite spending most of his career buried behind Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Brooks. Raybon believes Blue could seize the old Rico Dowdle role quickly and climb to weekly RB2 territory if he wins the job outright. In early best-ball drafts, that upside costs virtually nothing, making Blue one of Raybon’s favorite late-round darts.

Chris Raybon slotted rookie Jaydon Blue at RB40 and urged drafters to attack unsettled backfields after the top 36 backs come off the board. Dallas currently leans on inefficient veterans—Raybon cited Miles Sanders’ 3.5 YPC and sub-6.0 YPR over the last two seasons and noted similarly poor production from the rest of the room—leaving a clear path for Blue. At roughly 200 lbs, Blue flashed pass-game chops and elusiveness at Texas despite spending most of his career buried behind Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Brooks. Raybon believes Blue could seize the old Rico Dowdle role quickly and climb to weekly RB2 territory if he wins the job outright. In early best-ball drafts, that upside costs virtually nothing, making Blue one of Raybon’s favorite late-round darts.

Chris Raybon warned drafters that Brandon Aiyuk may begin 2024 on the Physically Unable to Perform list, forcing him to miss at least four games before any ramp-up period. Even once healthy, Aiyuk faces stiffer target competition than ever: Jauan Jennings earned a bigger role down the stretch, Ricky Pearsall arrived in Round 1, Demarcus Robinson signed on, and Christian McCaffrey plus George Kittle still command heavy volume. Raybon said the market is pricing Aiyuk as if he will seamlessly step back into a clear WR1 role, a scenario he considers optimistic given Kyle Shanahan’s spread-it-around tendencies. Until injury timelines clarify, Raybon is passing on Aiyuk at his current ADP and redirecting those picks toward receivers without such obvious early-season land mines.

Chris Raybon faded Ricky Pearsall hard, ranking him WR55 versus an Underdog ADP of WR41. Raybon cited a brutal rookie resume—Pearsall’s 14.4% targets-per-route ranked 26th out of 28 first-round receivers in the last five drafts, including a five-week stretch where he caught just two balls on 107 routes. The 49ers then muddied the waters further by re-signing Jauan Jennings (fresh off a late-season mini-breakout) and adding veteran Demarcus Robinson plus two Day-3 rookies. Raybon reminded listeners that Christian McCaffrey routinely soaks up receiver-level volume and George Kittle remains a red-zone staple, leaving Pearsall fighting for scraps even if Brandon Aiyuk opens on PUP. Outside of a meaningless Week-18 spike against Detroit, Raybon saw nothing to justify top-40 optimism and called Pearsall "a classic trap born of one highlight game and first-round bias."

Chris Raybon echoed Koerner’s caution on Rome Odunze, slotting the second-year wideout in the mid-40s of his projections despite an ADP inside the top 30. Raybon said Odunze’s rookie target-per-route rate and deep-ball disconnect with Caleb Williams make him more volatile than drafters understand. With Luther Burden a legitimate threat to slide into the vacated Keenan Allen role and Loveland drawing Cole Kmet’s old snaps, Raybon sees multiple paths to Odunze being only the WR3— or even WR4— in Chicago’s pecking order. For best ball he still sprinkles shares because Odunze can pop for long touchdowns, but in managed leagues Raybon prefers receivers with a sturdier weekly target floor going in the same range.

Chris Raybon labeled Khalil Shakir “criminally undervalued” at WR45 and placed him at WR30 after the Bills handed him a four-year, $60 million extension with $30 million guaranteed. Raybon highlighted Shakir’s volume surge once Stefon Diggs was dealt: excluding a meaningless Week 18, Shakir produced 5+ catches in 12 of 18 games and 6+ in 10 (56%). His target-per-route rate hovered just under 26%, borderline elite for a slot. Snap share climbed from 72% the first eight contests to 81% over the final ten, and Buffalo’s depth chart now features mostly gadget types behind him. Raybon’s takeaway: “Follow the money—Buffalo just told us who their No. 1 is.” At a mid-40s ADP you can draft a potential team target leader tethered to Josh Allen, giving Shakir WR2 upside at a WR4 cost in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Chris Raybon shoved Rhamondre Stevenson all the way down to RB52 after New England spent a second-round pick on home-run threat Trayveon Henderson. Raybon emphasized that Mike Vrabel’s new regime did not sign Stevenson’s four-year extension and will simply play the best back. Henderson’s three-down skill set, 4.38 speed and proven receiving chops put him in pole position for the lead role, while Antonio Gibson—who already pushed Stevenson late last year—remains a passing-down thorn. Stevenson has fumbled six times the past two seasons, averaged under 4.0 yards per carry each of those years and turns 27—an age cliff for non-feature backs. Raybon expects Stevenson to be relegated to low-value early-down snaps reminiscent of Dion Lewis’s middling Pats seasons, giving him neither floor nor ceiling at his current top-40 ADP.

Chris Raybon dropped Najee Harris to RB32—four spots below post-draft ADP (RB28)—arguing the market still underrates how much first-round rookie O’Marrion Hampton threatens Harris’s workload. Raybon noted Harris’s efficiency has fallen three straight seasons (YPC down to 3.9, explosive run rate bottom-15) and the former Steeler remains touchdown-dependent. With the Chargers investing first-round capital in Hampton, Raybon expects a 50-50 committee at best and would not be shocked if Hampton leapfrogs Harris entirely by mid-season, especially near the goal line and on passing downs. He likened Harris’s 2024 outlook to a Gus Edwards-style role—8-12 empty carries per game with little receiving work—hardly enough to justify a top-30 price tag. Unless Harris slides outside the top-40 backs, Raybon is passing in both season-long and best-ball formats.