Everett laid ‑6 with Los Angeles after The Athletic confirmed Jaxson Dart will make his first NFL start for the 0-3 Giants. He expects Brandon Staley’s defense to bait the inexperienced passer into multiple turnovers, allowing Justin Herbert and a top-five explosive-play offense (8 completions of 25+ yards already) to separate. The Chargers scored 31 in their lone road game and profile as a potential Super Bowl squad in Everett’s eyes, making the flat six cheap versus a team changing quarterbacks on a short week.

Doug Burrell backed the Chargers -6.5, calling the matchup a nightmare for New York. He noted Los Angeles ranks near the top of the league in passing yards per game and can also punish a run defense allowing big gains, which opens lethal play-action shots. On the other side, the Giants will start untested quarterback Jaxson Dart after benching Russell Wilson, putting a rookie behind a bottom-tier pass-blocking unit against a pressure-heavy Chargers front. Burrell pointed out the Giants have covered just three of their last 14 games as underdogs and now lose veteran kicker Graham Gano, adding special-teams uncertainty. With LA riding a 3-0 start and the betting line drifting their way, Burrell saw little chance the trend reverses in Dart’s first start.

Vic Tafur laid the ‑6.5 with Los Angeles, arguing Brian Daboll’s desperation benching of Russell Wilson for rookie Jaxson Dart leaves New York unprepared for a ‘smart, tough’ Chargers defense. The Giants already pace the league with 12 defensive penalties, all gifting first downs, and have myriad roster holes beyond quarterback. Tafur believes Dart’s baptism by fire plus those discipline issues make it unlikely Big Blue hangs within a touchdown.

Isaiah Sirois urged bettors to take Over 17.5 receiving yards for Chargers running back Omarion Hampton at ‑114 on FanDuel. With Najee Harris sidelined for the season, Hampton inherits full passing-down duties. He already averages 24.3 receiving yards through three contests and erupted for 59 yards on six catches last week. The rookie’s peripherals strengthen the case: 11 total targets, 68 routes run and a 57.6% route participation rate. Sirois expects Los Angeles to attack New York’s defense—which features elite interior run stoppers like Dexter Lawrence—by getting Hampton into space via screens and check-downs. Increased volume plus a favorable matchup make 18 yards a modest hurdle.

Isaiah Sirois also backed Over 34.5 rushing yards for Jaxson Dart, noting that the same Chargers defense that smothers passing lanes bleeds yardage when quarterbacks take off. Through three games they have surrendered the second-most QB rushing yards (110), including 57 to Patrick Mahomes, 20 to Geno Smith and 33 to Bo Nix. Dart averaged 38.1 rushing yards per game in his final season at Ole Miss—despite college sacks counting against rushing totals—and New York has already designed runs for him in limited packages. Expect frequent scrambles behind a porous Giants line and additional called keepers, making the DraftKings price of ‑114 (53.3% implied) attractive for the Over.

Isaiah Sirois recommended betting Under 191.5 passing yards for Jaxson Dart in his first start against the Chargers. Sirois pointed out that the Giants' aerial attack has been dysfunctional—Russell Wilson failed to reach 170 yards in two of three outings and only looks respectable because a 450-yard track meet in Week 2 at Dallas skews the averages. Kansas City just showed the blueprint: bring heat while bracket-covering Malik Nabers and force secondary weapons to win. Los Angeles is built to copy that plan, ranking 2nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.1) and 10th in pressure rate (21.3%). With Greg Roman’s slow-tempo offense keeping overall play volume down on the other side, Sirois sees a game environment that suppresses passing totals and gives the Under clear value at ‑115 on BetMGM (implied 53.5%).

Ellenport laid the 6.5 points with the Chargers in their MetLife trip, citing several factors. Kansas City just beat the Giants 22-9 in the same stadium, and Ellenport expects a similar script because New York is starting rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and has one of the league’s toughest remaining home schedules. He argued the Giants may be underdogs in every home game this year, which should keep spreads like this from being inflated enough. Meanwhile Justin Herbert has guided Los Angeles to a 3-0 start, giving the Chargers the offensive punch to exploit a defense that just surrendered 7.0 yards per pass attempt to Kansas City. Combined with the broader 12-4 ATS success rate for road favorites so far, Ellenport believes the Chargers are positioned to cover the 6.5-point number comfortably.

Ross Kelly said SportsLine’s 10,000-simulation model made Chargers ‑6.5 at the Giants one of its strongest Week 4 edges. L.A. rides a six-game regular-season winning streak and a 3-0 divisional start, while Justin Herbert’s league-leading 860 passing yards have vaulted him into the MVP conversation. The defense has surrendered the fewest passing TDs in the NFL. New York, meanwhile, is 1-9 at MetLife over the past two seasons and hands first-time starter Jaxson Dart a bottom-10 scoring, yardage, third-down, and red-zone defense for support. The model shows Los Angeles covering the 6.5-point spread in well over half its runs, making the Bolts a recommended side.

With Najee Harris lost to an Achilles tear, Moody expects rookie Omarion Hampton to shoulder bell-cow duties again. Hampton handled 25 touches and produced 24.9 fantasy points in Week 3. The Giants’ defense has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and ranks 29th in EPA per rush. Moody sees another 20-plus-touch afternoon, making Hampton a priority DFS value and waiver-wire add.