Dylan Rockford laid –116 with Cleveland, explaining that Ben Lively’s every-other-start pattern (four runs allowed, then zero) sets him up for a rebound against a Twins club averaging only 3.3 runs and sporting a 4-11 record on the road. Simeon Woods Richardson has been hammered away from Minneapolis—5.79 ERA, .345 opponent AVG—which offsets Minnesota’s marginal bullpen edge. Rockford’s model made Cleveland –130, and he trusts the Guardians’ contact-oriented offense in a game that projects plenty of baserunners against Woods Richardson.

At –102 Mark thinks the Twins are the bookmaker-respected side despite Cleveland’s 17-13 record. Simeon Woods Richardson’s 25% K-rate and soft-contact profile compare favorably with Ben Lively, and after two consecutive pitching duels—including a 0-0 game through seven last night—he expects the zig-zag back to Minnesota. If you want the home angle you can take Cleveland, but Mark believes the sharper money sits with the visiting Twins.

Kenny G recommended backing Cleveland at –115 to close out the series versus Minnesota. He observed that Ben Lively has alternated poor and strong outings all month and is therefore "due" for one of his good starts, while Simeon Woods Richardson profiles for regression after a season-best line against the weak-hitting Angels. The Guardians’ lineup is far from explosive (23rd in runs), but Kenny trusts their knack for getting a random hero—like Bo Naylor’s three-run shot Wednesday—and their 9-5 record at Progressive Field. Minnesota’s bats have completely disappeared with just three runs total in the last two games and the club is 4-11 on the road. Cleveland’s bullpen has slipped to a 3.79 ERA yet still grades better than Minnesota’s projected early-game relief options should Woods Richardson falter. Given the Twins’ offensive malaise and road woes, Kenny sees Cleveland as a short favorite worth backing.

Final Round pointed out Kyle Manzardo’s flawless 2-for-2 with a homer track record against Simeon Woods-Richardson and the fact he’s tallied a knock in nine of his last 10 games. Small sample, but the host is willing to bet on Manzardo to record a hit or go over 1.5 total bases at plus money.

It's The Final Round likes Steven Kwan to keep racking up knocks versus Twins rookie Simeon Woods-Richardson. Woods-Richardson’s four-seam (37% usage) is getting torched for a .364 average, and Kwan is sitting at .304 with 2 HR in 23 AB off four-seamers this year. The change-up (27% usage) is even worse for the pitcher (.444 BA allowed); Kwan handles that pitch at .333 (4-for-12). Woods-Richardson’s sweeper has been a disaster (.571 BA allowed), and while Kwan is just 1-for-10 on sweepers this season, the matchup still tilts heavily his way. Kwan has homered in his only previous meeting (3 AB, 1 HR) and has registered a hit in 24 of his last 29 contests. Final Round recommends Kwan in “to record a hit” props, total bases, or same-game parlays.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned Under because neither club hits: Minnesota ranks 22nd in team OPS (.673) and Cleveland sits 19th (.683). Both bullpens are trustworthy—Twins relievers sport a 3.49 ERA (10th) while the Guardians pen checks in at 3.79 (14th). The Under has cashed in six of the last nine meetings, and Woods Richardson’s short leash plus Lively’s competence point to multiple mid-inning relief matchups that favor pitchers. Given each side’s continued trouble with runners in scoring position (.699 and .706 OPS respectively), the tout expects runs to stay scarce.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Cleveland because Simon Woods Richardson owns a 5.79 road ERA, has not completed 5.1 innings in four of five starts, and has served up at least one homer in four straight. Ben Lively is no ace, yet Cleveland has won four of his last five appearances. The Guardians are 10-5 at Progressive Field and have captured seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings. With Minnesota winning only one of four road series all year, the tout sees Cleveland’s modest edge on the mound and at home swinging the outcome.

Data Skrive highlighted Guardians rookie Kyle Manzardo at +390 to leave the yard Thursday. Manzardo has 8 homers in 27 games (29.6% HR rate) so far, more than doubling the 20% break-even probability suggested by the +390 tag. Even assuming a rookie cool-off to a 22-24% HR rate, the prop should still be priced nearly a dollar shorter (+300 to +320). Bettors looking for a high-volatility, high-reward option can ride the hot bat while the books lag behind.

Alongside the Guardians side, Peterson grabbed Under 9 because his projection came out to 7.9 runs. He trusts Cleveland’s shutdown bullpen and sees Woods Richardson as competent enough to keep Minnesota in check, while Lively’s biggest issue—home-run rate—should be muted in cool May weather at Progressive Field.

Peterson played Cleveland at -108 because Ben Lively’s uneven 4.40 ERA is mitigated by the American League’s best bullpen ERA since the start of 2024. Minnesota sends league-average Simeon Woods Richardson (4.07 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.5 HR/9) and must turn things over to a relief unit he rates several tiers lower than Cleveland’s. His model made the Guardians -126, so anything near pick’em is a buy signal.

Guy Boston flagged Kyle Manzardo OVER 0.5 total bases (-142 at Caesars) as his favorite prop in Guardians-Twins. He noted Pablo Lopez’s extreme platoon splits—1.83 WHIP, 5.95 FIP and .343 average allowed to left-handed hitters compared with 0.71 WHIP, 1.30 FIP and .160 average to righties. Manzardo will bat from the left side and has feasted on Minnesota dating back to last season, averaging 2.5 bases over his last 10 and 2.8 over his last 7 against them, recording at least one base in every game of those samples. Boston’s dashboard prices the true line closer to ‑160/-170, giving roughly 18 cents of edge. He is willing to eat the juice because baseball props often warrant it when the market mis-prices handedness splits this badly.

Guy Boston recommended taking Cleveland at +115 because Pablo Lopez has been torched by left-handed bats all season (1.83 WHIP, 5.95 FIP, .343 average allowed vs LHH compared to 0.71 WHIP vs RHH). The Guardians can roll out as many as seven switch-hitters plus Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan, meaning Lopez will rarely see the platoon edge. On Cleveland’s side, Luis Ortiz mixes a fastball, cutter and sinker nearly 70 % of the time—three pitches Minnesota ranks bottom-10 against by run value the last 30 days. Ortiz’s two home starts were polar opposites (gem vs Kansas City, clunker vs the Yankees), so Boston acknowledges volatility but still gives him a slight edge given the matchup and home-field. With Minnesota’s offense regressing to one run yesterday, Boston sees live dog value and would sprinkle the Guardians first-five moneyline as well.

Malcolm Bamford laid –140 with Minnesota, trusting Pablo Lopez’s 2.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while noting trade rumors have not affected his performance. Lopez’s change-up/slider combo is limiting opponents to a .196 average, and his 28% strikeout rate should neutralize a Guardians lineup slugging just .367 versus righties. Conversely, Luis Ortiz is showing regression signs: 5.40 ERA over his last three and five walks in his most recent Progressive Field appearance. Bamford believes the Twins’ mini five-game win streak signals they are pushing toward contention, not a sell-off, and forecasts a clean six innings from Lopez before turning it over to a rested bullpen.

Dylan Rockford took over 7.5 (projected 8.1) in Twins-Guardians, mainly fading Luis Ortiz’s control implosion. The right-hander has walked 10 hitters in his last three outings and four of his previous five starts have gone over this number. Both clubs hit right-handers at .240 or better, and Cleveland games are 7-3 to the over in their last ten. Rockford advised looking at Ortiz walk props as well, but his primary play is the full-game over, expecting Minnesota’s power bats and Cleveland’s improved lineup (five straight games with 5+ runs) to punish free passes.

Kenny G advised laying the modest –130 with Minnesota because the matchup advantages stack up for the Twins. Pablo Lopez is in a classic bounce-back spot after a rare off game and still owns the much higher ceiling than Luis Ortiz, whom Kenny flat-out said he doesn’t trust. Cleveland is averaging just 2.8 runs over its last five and ranks 21st in runs and 22nd in OBP. The Guardians’ usually elite bullpen has slipped to league-average (3.72 ERA), so late-inning dominance is no longer guaranteed. Minnesota’s sticks are trending the right way, and Kenny expects Lopez to work deep enough to keep the shaky Twins relief group from blowing the edge. With the Guardians over-reliant on a couple of bats and Ortiz unlikely to give length, Kenny made Minnesota –130 his play, calling it a fair price that should close higher.

The tout raved about Steven Kwan’s matchup with Pablo Lopez, noting Kwan is smashing Lopez’s top three pitches. Versus four-seamers (.350, 2 HR), changeups (.364) and sweepers (.750 on 4 AB), Kwan owns the pitch profiles Lopez throws 90 % of the time, while Lopez is giving up .294/.333/.600 BAA on the same offerings. In their head-to-head Kwan is 7-for-14 (.500). Kwan has recorded a hit in 16 of his last 17 games, so the analyst recommends betting his hits or total-bases props.

Kyle Purviance circled Jose Ramirez’s runs + hits + RBIs prop, expecting it to clear 1.5 against Pablo Lopez. Ramirez is 7-for-19 (.368) lifetime off Lopez with six singles, a triple, and—crucially—zero strikeouts, suggesting he sees Lopez’s arsenal very well. Kyle noted Ramirez’s consistent contact profile means even a ground-ball can plate a runner, and books often post the R+H+RBI combo near even money (or a simple 0.5 Run/RBI prop at BetUS around +105). Because Ramirez rarely whiffs against Lopez’s fastball-changeup mix, Kyle believes every plate appearance carries real RBI or run-scoring upside and prefers this prop to standard total bases.

Ron advised backing Minnesota ML and –1.5 because Pablo Lopez is the staff ace and draws the Guardians’ weakest rotation arm, Luis Ortiz. Despite injuries to Royce Lewis and others, the Twins’ offense has ignited over the past week, while Cleveland’s lineup still profiles as below average. Given the pitching mismatch and a superior bullpen, Romanelli projects a Twins win by margin.

Stephen from Just A Bet Outside slotted Stephen Kwan into a two-leg hit parlay, confident the Guardians leadoff man records at least one knock. Kwan has collected a hit in 24 of 29 games and has not gone hitless on consecutive days more than once all season. He is batting .370 against right-handers and now draws Pablo Lopez, who is surrendering a .343 average to lefties in 2024 after allowing .267 last year. The matchup angle sweetens with Kwan’s personal 7-for-14 history versus Lopez. Given Kwan’s elite contact ability and the pitcher’s left-handed vulnerability, Stephen feels the single-hit floor is extremely safe.

Parlay's Pundit also advised betting Under 9 runs. He noted both clubs profile as below-average offenses—Minnesota ranks 19th at 4.0 runs a night with only 23 homers, while Cleveland sits 21st at 3.86 runs and a .237 team average. Starting pitching further suppresses scoring: Pablo Lopez has fanned 941 batters in 910 career innings with a 1.18 WHIP, and Luis Ortiz has limited opponents to 8.3 hits per nine despite a middling 4.14 ERA. The Twins staff enters with the 10th-best ERA in baseball (3.55) and a 3.69 FIP, striking out 250 hitters versus just 74 walks (K/BB 3.38). Cleveland’s pen allows only 4.98 runs per nine overall but tightens late, converting 9 of 12 saves. Progressive Field historically plays neutral-to-pitcher-friendly in April weather, and the Guardians have stayed Under in 7 of their last 10 at home. With two strikeout-capable righties, shaky lineups, and quality late arms, Pundit projects 6–7 total runs, making Under 9 a solid wager.

Parlay's Pundit recommended taking Cleveland at -152 on the moneyline for the April 30 matchup with Minnesota, pointing to three main edges. First, Cleveland’s bullpen has been lights-out: a 75% save rate (9-for-12) with only 20.6% of inherited runners scoring, giving them 28 holds against just three blown saves. Minnesota’s relievers, meanwhile, have converted only 37.5% of their save chances (3-of-8) and let 37.1% of inherited runners cross the plate. Second, the Guardians line up Luis Ortiz (career 4.14 ERA, 8.3 H/9) against Pablo Lopez; while Lopez owns the better résumé (3.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Ortiz is backed by a far more reliable pen and a Twins offense that is striking out 233 times with a .234 average and meager .371 SLG. Finally, Cleveland’s everyday lineup may be mediocre on paper (3.86 runs per game, 21st), but it still edges a Twins offense that sits 19th at 4.0 runs per game and has to scratch out runs on the road at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field. With the Guardians already 15-13 and looking to keep pace in the AL Central, Parlay’s Pundit feels the superior late-inning unit and home-field bump justify the -152 price.