DFS Army labeled Tanner Bibee the number-one tournament pivot off the high-owned aces, citing an 18% projected ownership that the tout plans to double. Minnesota will be without Byron Buxton and other departed veterans, leaving "a decent amount of left-handed bats" that Bibee strikes out at a 27% clip. The rookie has allowed only four homers at Progressive Field versus 16 on the road, and he just recorded eight strikeouts in his last outing. While his season has been volatile, the Guardians' coaching staff confirmed no restrictions after he reached 98 pitches last time out. DFS Army expects 6+ innings, 7-9 Ks and a realistic path to 25 DK points at a sub-9K salary, making Bibee the cornerstone of their large-field GPP portfolio.

While he didn’t trust a -155 money line, Mark leaned to Cleveland’s team total over 3.5/4.5 at plus money. He expects Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan to ‘go off’ against Minnesota spot-starter Jose Urena (5.40 ERA). Even with a light breeze blowing in, he believes the Guardians’ patient approach can exploit Urena’s 10% walk rate and middling bullpen behind him.

Just A Bet Outside placed a one-unit play on the Guardians moneyline at ‑110, arguing that Minnesota’s deadline fire-sale gutted both its lineup and bullpen. The Twins shipped out key relievers Louis Varland, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, traded Carlos Correa back to Houston, and moved on from Harrison Bader, Willie Castro and Ty France, while Byron Buxton remains on the IL. With limited offensive threats and a thin relief corps, he sees little support for starter Joe Ryan, who surrendered three earned runs in five innings the last time Cleveland faced him. Gavin Williams counters with a 3.05 ERA, .209 BAA and .326 slugging at Progressive Field, crushing lefties to a .143 average. Williams’ recent form (one good, one bad start vs MIN when they were fully healthy) and Cleveland’s hotter bats give a decisive edge in the second half of the game. The tout believes the market has not priced in Minnesota’s roster depletion, making the Guardians a mis-priced favorite.

The Bettor Mark leans Cleveland behind Gavin Williams versus Joe Ryan, citing strong clubhouse morale on a young squad still chasing a breakthrough. He thinks the Guardians’ energy plus Williams’ upside make them a live dog and would take them at current plus-money prices.

While not an official ticket, The Bettor Mark highlighted Kyle Manzardo’s hitting prop (total bases/hits) as mis-priced relative to his recent contact quality and rising lineup spot. He believes books have not adjusted to Manzardo’s surge and would play the over if the number stays at 0.5 hits or 1.5 total bases.

Just A Bet Outside recommended taking the Guardians on the moneyline at ‑110 because the matchup tilts heavily toward Cleveland right now. He noted Gavin Williams’ home dominance this season (3.05 ERA, .209 BAA, .326 SLG, and an absurd .143 average allowed to left-handed hitters). Minnesota reached Williams once early in the year, but that was when the Twins still had Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Willie Castro; none of those bats are currently active, leaving a lineup of youngsters. On the other side, the unnamed Twins starter gave up three runs in five innings the first time Cleveland saw him, and the Guardians are “swinging a hotter bat” entering the series. Bullpens add to the edge: Cleveland still grades as a top-10 unit while Minnesota just traded three of its best relievers. Team form matters too—Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 at home, while the Twins are 4-8 in their last 12 road games and have not won a road series since June 2-5 at Oakland. All those factors led the host to label Guardians ML his second-strongest bet of the slate.

Kenny G called Cleveland –110 an "excellent spot" because Gavin Williams has quietly allowed two or fewer earned in four of his last five starts and already dominated Minnesota back in late May. The Twins arrive having lost four of five, shipping players out at the deadline, and lugging a 21-33 road record. Joe Ryan was shelled by Washington his last time out and even if he rebounds, Kenny does not trust a Twins bullpen posting a 4.42 ERA since July 1. Minnesota’s bats have produced just 1, 5, 5, 2, 3 and 1 runs over the past six, ranking 22nd in both AVG and runs. Cleveland’s offense is hardly explosive (last in AVG, 26th in runs), but they handled Ryan once already and own a solid 3.68 bullpen ERA to protect any late lead. Add in home-field (27-26) and a flat money-line, and Kenny is happy to ride the Guardians.

Scott Reichel predicted Stephen Kwan will not be traded this week. Reichel argued Cleveland’s front office has a long track record of holding controllable hitters until it receives an above-market haul, and Kwan is under club control for at least two more seasons. Reichel added that the Guardians value Kwan’s elite contact profile despite today’s power-driven landscape, so fantasy managers should expect him to remain in the same park and lineup role through the rest of 2025.

Dylan Rockford’s “bold call” is that the Guardians will keep Steven Kwan through the deadline. Rockford said Cleveland rarely dumps controllable talent unless blown away and believes there is a gap between how the Guardians value Kwan’s elite defense/OBP skill set and how power-hungry front offices price him. Because Kwan remains under team control for at least one more season, Rockford expects any move to wait until the winter. Season-long fantasy managers can hold Kwan with confidence, knowing his everyday role and run-scoring opportunities in Cleveland should remain intact.