Bill Harrelson recommended the UNDER 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs for Orlando Arcia in Sunday’s Rockies-Pirates matchup. Arcia has fallen short of this number in 9 of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20 (85%). He is 5-for-7 to the under in his last seven meetings with Pittsburgh and owns a 74% season-long under rate (34-of-46). Over his past 12 games at Coors Field he is averaging just 0.7 H/R/RBI. Harrelson highlighted Arcia’s .179 overall batting average and a worse .167 mark against right-handed pitching, while Pirates starter Mitch Keller is limiting righties to a .229 average versus a .243 overall. With other books pricing the under similarly, Harrelson expects Arcia and a lackluster Colorado lineup to stay quiet once again.

Kenny G is backing Colorado at +148, noting the Pirates are coming apart. Pittsburgh is 16-37 on the road and just dropped an 8-5 decision here with staff ace Paul Skenes on the hill. Keller’s recent stumble plus a fading bullpen give the Rockies a path even with their own ugly 14-38 home mark. Kenny points out Blalock has allowed only four total earned runs across his last three starts, and Colorado’s lineup is "hitting the cover off the ball" right now. Given Pittsburgh’s tailspin and the plus-money price, he feels the home dog is worth a swing.

Eric Pathi said to bet the Colorado Rockies as roughly +135 home underdogs against the Pittsburgh Pirates on 8/3. Pathi argued that Pittsburgh is “one of the worst road favorites in baseball,” so laying about –165 on the Pirates makes no mathematical sense. His dog-value system already hit the Rockies at +190 the night before, which means bettors can split these two wagers 1-1 and still clear a 0.90-unit profit. The combination of the Pirates’ poor road favorite record, the attractive price on Colorado, and the favorable bankroll scenario led Pathi to label the Rockies a complimentary play for the second straight day.

It’s The Final Round tagged O'Neil Cruz as his favorite home-run lottery ticket in Denver. Cruz bats left-handed against Antonio Senzatela, who is yielding a .361 average to lefties, and Coors Field amplifies every deep fly. Although Cruz has not been red-hot of late, he owns elite max-exit-velocity numbers, was a Home Run Derby participant, and leads Pittsburgh in homers. The tout argued that any solid barrel at altitude against a hittable right-hander could clear the fence, making the Cruz HR prop worth a sprinkle once books post odds.

It’s The Final Round said Tommy Pham is the best way to attack Friday’s Pirates-Rockies game, recommending Pham’s Hit or Hits+Runs+RBIs overs. The tout pointed to Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela’s .333 batting-average-against to right-handers this season (.321 over his last four starts) and the extreme hitting environment at Coors Field. Pham enters on a heater, batting .500 over his past seven games with 13 knocks, four RBIs, five runs and four multi-hit efforts. He has also handled Senzatela historically, going 6-for-15 (.400) with two doubles. The in-house model assigns Pham an 85 percent chance to record a hit, 55 percent for two, a 50 percent chance to score and projects 8-10 fantasy points. Because he owns just one homer on the year, the tout prefers the safer hit-based props rather than a long-shot dinger ticket.

While discussing buy-low clubs, Drew spotlighted Pittsburgh as his favorite sleeper for the season’s back half. He cited a wave of young arms arriving at PNC Park and a farm system “stocked with live, strike-throwing prospects" that should bolster an already underrated rotation. Given their poor first-half record, Martin expects soft pricing and believes consistent plus-money opportunities on the Bucs will turn a profit as the public lags behind Pittsburgh’s improvement.

Bill Harrelson urged bettors to take Ryan McMahon for more than 0.5 total bases, pointing to an extended run of consistency. McMahon has cashed this prop in eight of his last ten games and 13 of his last 20, averaging 2.2 total bases across his past 12 contests. Against Tampa Bay specifically, he has cleared the number in seven of the last nine meetings (78 %), including a three-base outing yesterday. Harrelson highlighted a 260-game sample that shows McMahon beating this line roughly 56 % of the time, with a 62 % hit rate during last season alone. The matchup also looks favorable: McMahon owns a .500 career average with five total bases versus today’s right-handed starter, and he is slugging .225 against righties this year compared with .220 overall. Underdog is hanging the same 0.5 line other books have shaded higher, giving what Harrelson called “a great price in this market.” With McMahon locked into four plate appearances per night, Harrelson sees little downside in riding the hot hand for one single base hit, walk, or extra-base knock.