Alexandre Castro argued that Seattle’s +1.5 spread on FanDuel is generous given the current context. He pointed out that Pete Carroll’s club just throttled New Orleans and was able to rest starters for the entire fourth quarter, a rare luxury on a short-week turnaround. Meanwhile Arizona not only fell 24-15 to San Francisco’s backup quarterback Mac Jones but also lost workhorse running back James Conner for the season with an ankle injury, stripping the Cards of their most reliable offensive piece. Castro highlighted Seattle’s defensive surge—no opponent has topped 17 points through three weeks, the best opening stretch in franchise history—contrasting it with an Arizona attack that must now lean on an unproven committee. With both teams sitting at 2-1 and the stakes of an NFC West tiebreaker looming, he sees the market overreacting to home-field advantage and labels the Seahawks live underdogs worth backing at +1.5 (or on the moneyline for juicier + odds).

David Fernandez noted that James Conner's season-ending foot surgery thrusts Trey Benson into the featured role for Thursday's game. Benson has already posted 125 rushing yards on 21 carries this season and is expected to 'carry a heavy load' with only a light rotation behind him. The matchup, however, is far from ideal: Seattle's defense has been 'particularly stingy' through three games and is adept at bottling up the run, forcing opponents to rely on short passes and creative looks. Fernandez cautioned fantasy managers that while Benson's projected volume keeps him in play, they should temper efficiency expectations in both season-long lineups and DFS contests given the difficult matchup.

Dimers.com's team of analysts said their NFL predictive model, after running 10,000 simulations of Thursday night's Seattle Seahawks–Arizona Cardinals matchup, gives the Cardinals a 58% win probability versus 42% for the Seahawks. With Arizona sitting at -108 on the moneyline, the model shows positive expected value and labeled the moneyline 'the strongest play on the board.' Dimers projected a 23-21 final score, noting that such a razor-thin margin makes the Cardinals -1 spread far less attractive. James Conner's season-ending foot injury was baked into every simulation, yet the model still leans toward Arizona at home, making this a data-driven green light for bettors looking to back the Cardinals straight up.

Stephen Oh targeted Kyler Murray over 0.5 interceptions at +110 (available at smaller books, priced ‑113 at FanDuel). His model would set the line at ‑110, giving bettors a small but real edge at + odds. Murray has historically been looser with the ball at home—0.8 INTs per game and a 56.8% over rate—than on the road (0.6). Seattle already owns five picks this year (second-most in the league) despite missing Devon Witherspoon and second-round safety Nick Emmanwori; both are expected back Thursday, which could drive the price deeper into negative juice. Locking in the plus number now captures that anticipated movement.

Stephen Oh recommended Trey Benson over 60.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel). With James Conner out, the rookie inherits an offense that averaged 163 rushing yards and 5.5 ypc last season. The model still leans on that data and projects 140 team rushing yards, translating to 70-plus for Benson even though his carry projection (about 14) is slightly below the 14.5 attempts line. Oh highlighted Benson’s career 5.6 ypc explosiveness and minimal competition: Emari Demercado’s prop sits at 13.5 yards and Kyler Murray’s at 28.5. Seattle surrendered 123 rushing yards per road game at 4.7 ypc in 2024, making the over a strong value play.

Stephen Oh played Tory Horton over 1.5 receptions (-165 BetMGM), calling it the last week books will hang a WR3 line this low. Since locking down the No. 3 role in Week 2, Horton owns 13% of Seattle’s catches (4 targets, 32 yards and a score in each of the last two games). Darnold’s completion prop is a juiced 19.5 and the combined lines for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp account for only half of those projected completions, leaving a handful unpriced. The model projects 3.1 grabs on 4.5 targets, comfortably clearing the two-catch hurdle.

Stephen Oh advised taking Sam Darnold over 215.5 passing yards at ‑115 on Fanatics. Darnold averaged 250 yards per game with Minnesota last season and is still at 221 in Seattle despite two run-heavy scripts (only 23 attempts vs San Francisco and 18 in the New Orleans rout). His yards per attempt has jumped from 7.9 to just under 9 with Shane Waldron calling a deeper passing attack. Arizona stuffs the run (76 yards allowed, 3.8 ypc) and forces opponents into 47 pass attempts per game; even with the Cards holding foes to 5.8 YPA, raw volume should push Darnold past the number. The model projects 244 yards, creating almost 30 yards of cushion on the listed prop.

Esten McLaren highlighted that road teams are 38-22-1 against the spread in Thursday Night Football games from 2019-2023 despite the quick turnaround. With Seattle catching 1.5 points in Arizona, he sees the historical trend as another data point favoring the Seahawks ticket.

Stephen Oh said his SportsLine Projection Model makes Seattle a live underdog on Thursday night, giving the Seahawks a 57% chance to cover +1.5 compared with the 54.1% break-even odds at ‑118 on DraftKings. The model projects nearly 23 points for Seattle versus the 21.3 implied total and expects Sam Darnold to throw for 244 yards. Oh noted that typical short-week road fatigue should be mitigated because Seattle coasted through the second half of last week’s blowout of New Orleans, allowing the starters to rest. Those edges, paired with a slight mismatch between Arizona’s run-first offense and Seattle’s upgraded pass defense, make the spread the sharper angle than the money line.

Dustin Saracini recommended betting Seahawks +1.5 at -105. His case rests on two pillars: Seattle’s defense has been "pretty good" through three weeks, and Sam Darnold is steadily morphing back into the efficient passer he flashed in Minnesota. Saracini believes those trends outweigh any home-field edge for Arizona on the short week.

C Jackson Cowart grabbed Seahawks +1.5 at -110 for Thursday Night Football, pointing out that the line actually opened with Seattle as 1.5-point favorites before flipping. He thinks oddsmakers are still underrating a 3-0 team that just blew out the Saints and is playing disciplined football under Mike Macdonald. Until that market inefficiency closes, Cowart is happy to take the points with Seattle.

WagerTalk’s betting analyst recommended taking Seattle at pick’em (or +1) for Thursday Night Football. He argued the condensed turnaround actually magnifies roster quality, and Seattle grades out as the superior side despite traveling. Supporting data: a two-yards-per-play advantage in Week 2 at Pittsburgh, a 31-point Week 3 rout of New Orleans in which starters rested late, and a 2-1 ATS mark even after five turnovers in three games. Conversely, Arizona has been out-gained in every contest, is living off +4 turnover differential (only one giveaway all season), and just lost lead back James Conner to an ankle injury. The market has already flipped from Cardinals –2.5 to essentially a pick, which the analyst views as confirmation that sharp money agrees Seattle is the healthier, deeper roster on the short week. Play call: bet the Seahawks moneyline or any underdog spread available.

Jason Logan noted that Arizona opened as a 1.5-point home favorite for Thursday Night Football but warned bettors the club has only three days to replace RB James Conner after his severe ankle injury in Week 3. With the total sitting at 43.5, Logan pointed out that the market could shift toward Seattle once the Cardinals’ thin backfield depth is fully priced in, making Seahawks +1.5 or an early Under ticket appealing before the odds move.