Erik Beimfohr advised fading Javonte Williams after his move to Dallas, blasting the landing spot as "three yards and a cloud of dust." Beimfohr noted that the Cowboys’ new head coach—a former All-Pro inside linebacker—prefers an old-school, downhill rushing attack behind an offensive line that "sucks," leaving Williams to repeatedly slam into the backs of his own blockers. With little creativity in the scheme and minimal passing-game optimism, Beimfohr expects Williams to be an inefficient, touchdown-dependent option who will not justify his current best-ball ADP.

Beimfohr summed up the Gibbs thesis: if he hits, "he is the backfield." Detroit already gave him goal-line work down the stretch, and drafters have seen his passing-game ceiling. The host likes Gibbs as a hero-RB starter because the Lions’ structure funnels both high-value touches and explosive space plays his way—creating a path to 20+ opportunities without ceding receiving downs. Gibbs also lets drafters hammer elite WRs at the 1-2 turn while still rostering an upside workhorse.

Beimfohr put Achane in the hero-RB discussion despite a top-15 ADP that scares some drafters. Last season Achane finally received Mike-Davis-level volume but cratered in efficiency; the year prior he was the most efficient back in fantasy history on limited touches. If Miami’s offense re-discovers early-McDaniel juice and Achane keeps 2024’s workload, he could marry splash-play upside with bankable volume—exactly the profile that wins Best-Ball tournaments. Offensive-line issues and dicey Dolphins vibes keep it risky, but the ceiling remains tournament-breaking.

Beimfohr tagged Cade Otton as a “run-all-the-routes” safety valve who is essentially free at the end of drafts. Otton has been quiet in camp, but there is no Week-1 concern and Tampa projects to let him handle full-time snaps. Even as the fourth or fifth option in the target tree, Otton’s route volume gives him a realistic path to the 4-40-1 type lines that prevent a Best-Ball zero at tight end. The bottom line: Otton costs nothing, never leaves the field, and any touchdown spike becomes immediately lineup-usable in TE-premium playoff weeks.

Erik Beimfohr said Dalton Schultz is the late-round tight end who actually gives you predictable routes. In his words Schultz is "probably going to run 75 percent of the routes" for Houston, and the market still lets him go undrafted in a decent chunk of Best-Ball rooms. Beimfohr likes that the Texans appear ready to lean further into C.J. Stroud’s arm—citing the thin Pierce/Mixon backfield mix and DeMeco Ryans’ run-game obsession as signals that passing volume could rise out of necessity. Because Schultz costs nothing but projects for starter-level participation on an offense most drafters expect to rebound, Beimfohr views him as the ideal “routes bet” that rounds out TE rooms without sacrificing upside or weekly floor.

Erik Beimfohr pointed out that camp reports have Dameon Pierce back atop the Texans depth chart the moment he returned from his ankle tweak, leap-frogging rookies Jawhar Jordan and Woods (projected passing-down option). While he personally isn’t a Pierce truther, Beimfohr emphasized that landing a probable Week-1 starter in the 18th round is a free roll for Zero-RB or rookie-heavy builds—"just give me a couple starts" until higher-upside stashes pop. Houston’s offense averaged 26.6 points over the final eight games of 2024 with C.J. Stroud healthy, so even a two-to-three-week usable stretch from Pierce can swing best-ball advancement rates.

Erik Beimfohr said drafters are sleeping on J.K. Dobbins at his current 9th-round ADP (~100 overall). Local beat reporter Ben Albright keeps repeating that Dobbins is the unquestioned Week-1 starter, and Sean Payton’s offenses have historically pumped running-back fantasy production (Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Reggie Bush). Beimfohr added that Denver’s offensive line quietly graded out top-10 in run-block win rate last year and expects another step forward from the unit. The Broncos should score more points as Bo Nix settles in, creating high-value goal-line touches. While Dobbins’ past health issues cap his season-long ceiling, Beimfohr framed him as the perfect early-season workhorse for Zero-RB builds: grab starter touches in September/October, then “hand the baton” to cheaper contingent bets like RJ Harvey once the mileage catches up. At pick 100 you’re buying a starting job, Payton’s pass-game scheming for backs, and a strong line—all the ingredients you want in best-ball.

Erik Beimfohr recommended sprinkling in DeAndre Hopkins as a last-round pick because, even if Hopkins is "probably dust," he will still run a full complement of routes with Lamar Jackson. Beimfohr compared the situation to taking Josh Palmer in Los Angeles but at a much cheaper price, emphasizing that Hopkins’ route volume alone could lead to usable best-ball weeks in an offense that projects to score heavily. The cost is essentially free, so he views Hopkins as an easy add when other preferred late-round options are gone.

Erik Beimfohr said Lamar Jackson is the quarterback he is prioritizing in 2025 best-ball drafts because the combination of elite rushing production, deeper skill-position talent and a real chance the Ravens defense regresses gives Jackson both an every-week 20-point floor and frequent 40-point spike weeks. Beimfohr pointed out that Baltimore added explosive scat-back Keaton Mitchell, multiple wide-receiver upgrades over Nelson Agholor and still retains a deep tight-end room, which means Jackson will have more yards after the catch and screen opportunities. If Derrick Henry misses any time, Beimfohr expects the offense to tilt entirely toward Jackson, amplifying his ceiling. He contrasted this with Buffalo occasionally limiting Josh Allen’s rushing and pass attempts, which has produced disappointing 12-point weeks that Jackson rarely delivers, and concluded that Jackson is "the best quarterback on the planet" for fantasy purposes.

Erik Beimfohr argued that drafters are sleeping on Lamar Jackson, calling him the most talented quarterback in the league and the ideal pick for an elite-QB roster construction. Jackson already owns an MVP season with a 45-TD, 5-INT passing line and unrivaled rushing juice, yet Beimfohr believes his true fantasy ceiling has not been reached. The 2025 Ravens add Derrick Henry, forcing defenses into heavy boxes that they cannot lighten against Jackson’s option runs, and their pass-catcher group is better than credited: Zay Flowers looks like a borderline star, Rashod Bateman is a competent boundary target, DeAndre Hopkins provides chain-moving depth, and the team still boasts multiple athletic tight ends. That combination gives Jackson both a high weekly floor and the ability to spike 35-plus points. Beimfohr recommends grabbing Jackson in the late-second/early-third round of best-ball drafts instead of defaulting to Mahomes or Allen, betting on his rare 80-yard play ability and newly upgraded supporting cast.

Erik Beimfohr moved Jahmyr Gibbs up to 1.03 overall in hero-RB builds, calling him the perfect one-back anchor for best-ball tournaments. He expects Detroit to give Gibbs more traditional carries plus the play-action receiving looks that made David Montgomery the league leader in yards-per-route-run last year. The Lions remain one of the heaviest play-action offenses because it unlocks Jared Goff, and Dan Campbell’s aggressive, win-now mindset means that philosophy stays even with Ben Johnson gone. Gibbs will not hit Christian McCaffrey-level snap shares, but a modest goal-line bump combined with explosive space touches in a still high-scoring offense should deliver weekly RB1 scores. Beimfohr argued that when Gibbs hits you rarely need a second running back in your lineup, making him a smash pick at the top of drafts.

Erik Beimfohr warned drafters to steer clear of Nick Chubb even with his ADP shooting into the low-130s after he signed with the Houston Texans. Beimfohr highlighted a damning Coach-Speak Index quote in which DeMeco Ryans opened with, “Guys age, he’s been through a lot,” before mustering only that Chubb “loves football” and “is sharp in protection” – code, according to Beimfohr, for a back who no longer has juice. A local beat reporter who has attended every practice ranked Chubb fourth on the depth chart behind Jawhar Jordan, Woody Marks and British Brooks, noting Chubb looked clearly slower than all three. Despite Joe Mixon sitting out, Chubb has failed to separate. Beimfohr believes the Texans can cut him with minimal cap repercussions and expects that outcome, admitting he regrets the handful of super-flex puppy shares he took at pick 200. His advice: do not spend a Best Ball or season-long pick on Chubb at any ADP – the most likely result is a summer cut and zero fantasy points.

Erik Beimfohr grouped Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle into a clear elite-tight-end tier and said he plans to roster "an absolute boatload" of them. He feels the market overlooks McBride because he sits between the hyped prospect (Bowers) and the established superstar (Kittle), creating a price sweet-spot. Beimfohr encouraged drafters building around an early-round tight end to prioritise McBride before the room corrects.

Erik Beimfohr said Geno Smith is the single biggest discrepancy between his quarterback rankings and current ADP. Smith is going outside the top-24 signal-callers on Underdog, yet Beimfohr grades him a fringe QB1 and owns only 7 % exposure, a number he called "wrong" and plans to correct. He cited three reasons: (1) virtually every projection service ranks the Raiders defense bottom-five, setting up weekly shoot-outs; (2) Las Vegas quietly built a strong supporting cast with Brock Bowers over the middle, dependable slot man Jacoby Myers, and rookie burner Dante Thornton to clear out space; and (3) Smith himself is an underrated real-life passer whose accuracy and willingness to push the ball mesh perfectly with those weapons. Beimfohr’s actionable takeaway: make a conscious effort to draft more Smith-led Raider stacks before his price adjusts.

Erik Beimfohr insists Brock Bowers is flat-out mispriced. While drafters worry Bowers "doesn't really fill the tight-end spot," Beimfohr reminded listeners that Bowers out-targeted Ladd McConkey when they shared the Georgia offense and now comes with valuable TE eligibility. Bowers is an "unbelievable target earner" expected to be "the engine of an entire passing attack," giving him week-winning upside equal to or greater than every wide receiver in the same ADP range. Beimfohr is loading up on Bowers and expects him to "smash" as an immediate top-six option at the position, calling any discount relative to McConkey illogical.

Erik Beimfohr recommended Geno Smith as the ideal "punt" quarterback. Smith regularly slips to the 14th round even though he already delivered top-12 fantasy production with Seattle and now pilots a Raider offense that can be inexpensively stacked with Brock Bowers, Tyquan Thornton and Bech. Beimfohr said Smith "should have been going in the 10th or 11th with the Jordan Love–Trevor Lawrence tier" and called him a classic "window quarterback" who can throw 30 touchdowns while freeing early picks for other positions. That combination of price, past production and easy late-round stacking makes Smith his favorite QB safety valve when he pushes the position.

Erik Beimfohr argued that Keon Coleman is the one Buffalo pass-catcher who can leap into real stardom and is therefore a must-target in the double-digit rounds. Beimfohr pointed out that before a wrist injury Coleman posted 4-125 and 5-70-1 lines in consecutive games, matching the glowing camp reports the Bills have circulated all summer. He contrasted this with last year’s overhyped depth chart that ultimately forced Buffalo to trade for Amari Cooper, concluding that the 2025 buzz around Coleman feels much more substantive. If Buffalo’s overall passing volume rises and Coleman extends that pre-injury form, Beimfohr thinks drafters capture massive upside at a still-depressed price.

Erik Beimfohr promoted Keon Coleman as the perfect Round-8/9 target for drafters who start heavy at running back. Coleman’s rookie season was labeled disappointing, yet his 1.71 yards per route run is perfectly serviceable for a second-year leap. With Amari Cooper gone, Khalil Shakir nursing yet another high-ankle sprain, and Dalton Kincaid still unproven as a full-time receiver, Buffalo badly needs an outside playmaker. Beimfohr expects the Bills defense to slip, increasing pass volume, and believes Coleman will run every route for Josh Allen, giving him Gabe Davis-style spike weeks with true WR2 season-long upside. He called the current 85-100 ADP range “a gift,” noting that other wideouts (Emeka Egbuka, Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Corley) have already been priced up, leaving Coleman as the standout value.

Erik Beimfohr said that in the DraftKings $555 Best Ball tournament, which advances only 50 teams to the Week-17 final, he would rather grab Josh Allen in Round 3 than pivot to Chase Brown. Beimfohr argued that early-round uniqueness matters far less in a small final than in a mass-entry contest; what wins is raw ceiling and roster flexibility. Drafting Allen locks in a weekly 30-point quarterback, keeps the build to two QBs, and sets up an inexpensive Round-8 stack with Keon Coleman. It also lets the roster continue hammering wide receiver in Rounds 4-6 behind Jahmyr Gibbs and Trey McBride. In his view, Allen ‘unlocks everything’ and produces a more powerful roster than the Gibbs + Chase Brown + McBride detour, even if that combination would be rarer.

Erik Beimfohr called Dalton Schultz “gross but necessary” for drafters who need bodies at tight end after pick 200. Schultz still projects to run roughly 75 percent of Houston’s routes, and Beimfohr expects the Texans to throw even more this season with Dameon Pierce, British Brooks and an underwhelming backfield behind C.J. Stroud. If the passing volume climbs and Schultz maintains his red-zone usage, he can accidentally land multiple TE1 weeks, which is all you can ask from a player who often goes undrafted.

Erik Beimfohr argued that Saquon Barkley becomes a smash first-round pick any time draft rooms let him slide to picks 1.07-1.09. Barkley’s appeal is the Eagles’ downhill, run-first approach that gave him rock-solid weekly production last season despite limited passing-game work. Beimfohr expects that offensive formula to stay intact, providing Barkley with a high-floor, high-touch workload in an elite scoring environment. He noted Barkley routinely falls behind Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson in recent drafts, creating an easy buy window for a bell-cow who can post top-three RB numbers without needing receiving volume to get there.

Erik Beimfohr called Jayden Daniels a smash whenever he slips into the mid-fourth round, noting that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen almost never make it past the 3-4 turn. Daniels owns the same Konami-code rushing profile—he set the SEC record for QB rushing yards and scored 10+ rushing TDs in back-to-back college seasons—yet costs a full round less because drafters are spooked by the Terry McLaurin contract standoff. Beimfohr likes building Commanders stacks by taking Daniels at 4.04 and hoping McLaurin swings back in the fifth, but emphasized that Daniels is "good enough to stand alone" thanks to his 1,134 rushing yards, 11.7 yards per attempt, and Heisman résumé. In his view the market is over-reacting to short-term camp noise and under-pricing a player who could replicate Lamar’s 2019 league-winning season.

Erik Beimfohr said J.K. Dobbins is an auto-click around pick 100 for zero-RB or Hero-WR builds. Broncos beat reporter Ben Albright has repeatedly stated Dobbins is the clear week-one starter for Sean Payton, a coach who has a long track record of funneling touches to one lead back and producing top-12 fantasy seasons (think Pierre Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram). Denver’s offensive line graded top-10 in adjusted line yards last year and the offense projects to be more efficient with Bo Nix in year two, giving Dobbins early-season touchdown equity. Beimfohr acknowledged Dobbins’ durability concerns but framed that as a feature, not a bug: you get the first leg of the relay at a discount, then pass the baton to late-round bets such as RJ Harvey or Nathaniel Tuton when the wheels inevitably come off. The combination of confirmed week-one role, historically friendly scheme, and a ninth-round ADP makes Dobbins a perfect starter pack for zero-RB drafters.

Erik Beimfohr argued that J.K. Dobbins is a screaming value around pick 100 as the expected starting running back in Sean Payton’s first year with Denver. Payton’s offenses have routinely funneled touches to a lead back (Alvin Kamara averaged 19.2 opportunities per game in New Orleans), and Beimfohr noted that Denver’s staff has already spoken about leaning on the ground game while their young quarterback develops. Dobbins averaged 5.4 yards per carry in his most recent healthy season and showed top-20 per-touch fantasy efficiency despite a limited role in Baltimore. With only Samaje Perine and mid-round rookie Audric Estime behind him, Dobbins has a clear path to 60–65% of snaps and the bulk of goal-line work. Beimfohr acknowledged Dobbins’ injury history but emphasized that Payton’s scheme, Denver’s upgraded offensive line, and a projected neutral-to-positive game script in an AFC West lacking dominant defenses give him legitimate RB1 weeks if he simply stays on the field. At his ninth-round ADP, the combination of feature-back volume and explosive per-touch profile makes him a cornerstone pick for both Best Ball and hero-RB redraft builds.

Erik Beimfohr said Keaton Mitchell is back on the draft board after flashing his trademark burst in the preseason. The scat-back looks fully recovered, excels in the screen game, and adds another layer of explosiveness to a loaded Ravens offense. At a final-round price tag Mitchell offers cheap access to big-play upside, and Beimfohr noted that if Derrick Henry were to miss time Baltimore would lean on Lamar Jackson and its speed backs, giving Mitchell spike-week potential rarely found that late.

Erik Beimfohr said Lamar Jackson should be drafted ahead of every other quarterback in best-ball this summer. Baltimore has added explosive scat-back Keaton Mitchell while keeping the dependable Justice Hill, giving Jackson more play-makers than ever. Beimfohr argued that if the Ravens’ defense regresses even a little Todd Munkin will lean on Lamar, creating routine 40-point fantasy weeks on top of a 20-point rushing floor. He contrasted that with Buffalo occasionally limiting Josh Allen to 28 pass attempts and few designed runs, producing 12-point duds Jackson never posts. In his view the combination of weekly floor and unrivaled ceiling fully justifies grabbing Jackson in the early third round—or earlier—especially because stacking him is now so cheap.

Erik Beimfohr argued Lamar Jackson is the best quarterback in the league and still under-drafted relative to his fantasy ceiling. He noted Jackson already owns an MVP season with 45 TDs and only 5 INTs and now gets his most talented supporting cast yet: Derrick Henry in the backfield forces heavy boxes, Zay Flowers looks like a budding star, Rashod Bateman is a capable boundary option, and depth pieces such as DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, Tez Walker and return ace Lajante Wester are upgrades on last year’s WR3 mix. Even scat-back Keaton Mitchell’s return plus Justice Hill’s reliability give Todd Monken more explosive screen and tempo packages. If the Ravens’ defense regresses and Jackson is asked to win shoot-outs, Beimfohr expects regular 40-point fantasy weeks thanks to Lamar’s unmatched rushing floor and newly expanded passing weaponry. His draft advice: prioritize Jackson in the elite-QB tier—especially on builds that bet on Baltimore shoot-outs—and let his weekly ceiling carry onesie production.

Erik Beimfohr said fantasy drafters should be actively overweight on Michael Penix in best-ball “punt QB” builds. Beimfohr pointed out that everything analysts liked about Atlanta’s setup last summer still applies, but now the quarterback is a first-round pick who showed well in brief action and peppered Drake London on roughly 40 % of his routes (crediting a Rich Hrbar stat). With London, Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts in a fast track, he expects a pass-friendly, high-scoring environment while a still-questionable defense forces shoot-outs. Penix’s current ADP sits in the Baker Mayfield bucket, yet Beimfohr believes the ceiling is “QB-window” territory comparable to where fantasy managers once vaulted C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence after breakout seasons. He suggested pairing Geno Smith and Penix as the ideal two-quarterback combination when punting the position late.

Erik Beimfohr pegged Michael Penix as his favorite punt quarterback, highlighting an ADP in the 140s that makes him "the QB like a million". Atlanta’s skill group of Drake London and Bijan Robinson gives Penix instant spike-week potential if Kirk Cousins falters or the veteran’s Achilles flares up. Beimfohr called 2025 "flap-lag season" for the Falcons, expecting new OC Zac Robinson to unleash a more pass-friendly scheme than Arthur Smith’s. Penix brings a proven deep-ball resume (back-to-back 3,700-plus-yard, 9.0 YPA campaigns at Washington) and first-round draft capital, so the path to starts is clearer than the market assumes. At a near-free cost he is an ideal upside stash in Best Ball tournaments and late-round redraft builds.

Erik Beimfohr said Nick Chubb is a land-mine pick in 2025 drafts and may not survive final roster cuts. Beimfohr pointed to July 28th Coach Speak Index quotes where the Texans staff could muster only, "He loves football" and praised Chubb’s pass-protection while immediately acknowledging "guys his age" have lost a step. A Texans beat writer recently ranked the backs Jawhar Jordan, Woody Marks and British Brooks ahead of Chubb in camp performance, reinforcing that Chubb currently sits fourth on the depth chart. Mixon is still not practicing, yet Chubb’s Underdog ADP has climbed into the 130s. Beimfohr called that price "terrifying," noted Chubb’s heavy mileage and multiple lower-body injuries, and said he personally regrets every late-round share he drafted in the Superflex Puppy. Actionable takeaway: pass on Chubb in Best Ball and season-long; the floor is being cut before Week 1.

Erik Beimfohr labeled the Las Vegas Raiders defense a bottom-five group in every reputable projection he has seen—"sometimes dead last"—and advised bettors and DFS players to attack them weekly. He pointed out that even preseason backups have marched the field on similarly poor units and expects the Raiders to be forced into constant shoot-outs. The takeaway: stream opposing quarterbacks, play game-stack overs involving Las Vegas, and never draft the Raiders DST. The porous defense is also a boost for Raiders pass catchers who will have to chase points all season.

Erik Beimfohr said the buzz around Romeo Doubs dominating Packers camp is fool’s gold and advised backing off his current draft cost. Beimfohr argued Doubs has not suddenly transformed into an elite wideout; the illusion is being created by an injury–riddled cornerback room that now features converted wide receivers and fringe XFL-level talent. With Bo Melton and other depth pieces forced to play defense in practice, Doubs is torching a unit that won’t remotely resemble an NFL secondary once the games count. Beimfohr called Doubs "the most mid receiver" and compared him to Josh Palmer, concluding the camp reports do not represent actual progression and that drafters should let someone else chase the training-camp narrative.

Erik Beimfohr called Geno Smith his favorite punt quarterback, noting Smith is the single biggest gap between his personal ranks and ADP. The Raiders’ shaky defense should push Smith into pass-heavy scripts, and stacking him is painless: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and deep shots like Dante Thornton all come at bargain prices. Beimfohr expects the market to eventually move Smith up to the 10th-11th-round window with the Jordan Love–Trevor Lawrence tier, so grabbing him in the 15th as a QB2—or even as a late QB1 after an elite—locks in exposure to multiple spike weeks without sacrificing early capital.

Erik Beimfohr said he is 'leaving the light on' for Dalton Kincaid because the Bills’ tight end owns the two fantasy cheat codes the market keeps forgetting: tight-end eligibility and an every-down path to slot targets. Beimfohr argued that Khalil Shakir’s intermediate work is naturally Kincaid’s if Keon Coleman is asked to win outside, something the hosts both called 'very uncertain right now.' With Buffalo still looking for reliable chain-moving options, Kincaid could push for a top-three target share on the team while scoring at the league’s thinnest fantasy position. That combination, at his current mid-round best-ball price, makes him an easy difference-maker swing rather than the floor pick drafters are treating him as.

Erik Beimfohr urged drafters to target Keon Coleman in the pick-85-to-100 window, especially on robust-RB builds that need Week-to-Week wide-receiver upside. Coleman posted a respectable 1.71 yards per route run as a second-round rookie and now finds a clearer runway: Khalil Shakir is dealing with another high-ankle sprain, Amari Cooper is gone, and Josh Allen’s Bills could lean even heavier on the pass if their defense regresses. Beimfohr argued that even a Gabe-Davis-style season—full route participation plus a handful of 20-point spikes—would smash Coleman’s price, while a legitimate second-year leap could push him into every-week starter territory. With other receivers in that range (Emeka Egbuka, Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Golden) already rocketing up boards, Coleman "pops off the screen" as the last affordable outside alpha tied to an elite quarterback.

Erik Beimfohr cautioned that Jonathan Taylor is the single most common second-round pick paired with Jameer Gibbs in DraftKings’ $555 contest—making that combo a leverage sinkhole. Opponent-board data from Draft IQ shows Taylor routinely goes 2.08–2.12 after a Gibbs first round, creating massive duplication. Beimfohr likes Taylor in a vacuum but prefers using Gibbs with A.J. Brown, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers, or an elite quarterback to avoid mirror-matching thousands of entries. The takeaway: if you start Gibbs, skip Taylor and Chase Brown in Round 2 to keep your roster differentiated for Best Ball finals equity.

Erik Beimfohr laid the 5.5 points with Arizona in Week 1, labeling New Orleans "the worst team in the NFL." He pointed to the Saints’ brutal cap hangover and a quarterback room of Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shuck and Jake Haener backed by a bad defense. While he likes Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, he argues they cannot overcome the overall talent deficit. Conversely, he sees the Cardinals as a potential playoff team on the back of a Year-1 leap from Marvin Harrison Jr. Beimfohr is eager to fade the Saints’ collapse and expects Arizona to win comfortably, making Cardinals –5.5 one of his earliest tickets.

Erik Beimfohr said the Week 1 Bengals–Browns total is still too low and advised betting the over immediately. Cincinnati was an "over" machine last season and now gets Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Brown and a fully-healthy Joe Burrow back while adding tight end Mike Gesicki and second-year wideout Dermaine Burton. Beimfohr expects that fire-power to be a "printing press." He believes Cleveland will keep pace because veteran Joe Flacco is likely to start and can feed playmakers David Njoku and Harold Fannin against what he calls "maybe the worst defense in the entire league" in Cincinnati. With two explosive offenses and suspect defenses, he anticipates a track-meet and locked in the over before the market reacts.

Beimfohr faded Pittsburgh and took the Jets at +138 outright. He calls the Steelers offense, even with Aaron Rodgers, one of the least talented groups in football and questions why they are road favorites. The Jets defense should rebound under Aaron Glenn, and Justin Fields carries a revenge narrative facing Rodgers. Factoring in home field and matchup edges, he sees clear betting value on New York.

Beimfohr backed the Rams at minus less than a field goal. Sean McVay says Matthew Stafford will be healthy for Week 1, and Los Angeles still fields Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams plus a defense that surged late last year. Houston travels with what he calls the league’s worst offensive line, an injured Joe Mixon, and a probably washed Nick Chubb. While praising the Texans defense, he doubts C.J. Stroud can match the Rams’ scoring in LA.

Beimfohr took New York +7 at Washington, calling the spread a full field-goal too high. The Commanders are dealing with an aging roster, multiple camp injuries, and a protracted Terry McLaurin holdout. He argues the Giants are better than the market thinks: Russell Wilson is a tangible upgrade at quarterback, Bleak Neighbors adds star power, the offensive line took a step forward, and the defensive front is elite. With Washington in flux, he wants the touchdown.

Beimfohr is fading a top-heavy 49ers roster and grabbed Seattle with the points. San Francisco had to pay Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, lost depth because of the cap squeeze, and is already banged up—Aiyuk questionable and Jauan Jennings holding out. Seattle, meanwhile, has an inexpensive quarterback in Sam Darnold, an upgraded defense, and the 12th-Man advantage. He believes the Seahawks should be slight favorites and wants any plus-money or spread points available.

Erik Beimfohr said he already laid the points with Philadelphia in the NFL opener. He pointed to ugly Dallas camp reports—Micah Parsons reportedly unhappy, a ‘sketchy’ offensive line and defense, plus no clear lead running back. Beimfohr expects the Eagles to lean on their downhill run game, force Dak Prescott into catch-up mode, and ‘jam it down the Cowboys’ throats.’ He is comfortable laying up to a touchdown and expects Philly to win by seven or more.

Erik Beimfohr said Trey McBride should be the first tight end you click in Week 1 cash and GPP builds. He grouped McBride with Brock Bowers and George Kittle as a clear ‘big three,’ noting the chasm between that tier and the rest of the position. McBride tops his list because the Cardinals enter the opener with very little proven target competition and, in his words, draw the best matchup of the trio. DraftKings pricing lets you jam in superstar running backs and receivers while still affording McBride’s salary, so Beimfohr plans to pay up at tight end rather than dabble with cheaper options. He does not expect that stance to change unless pricing moves significantly before lock.

Beimfohr closed the show by saying the "big three"—Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle—are such clear outliers that he wants to "spend up" for them whenever possible. He cited a massive talent and usage gap between this trio and the rest of the tight-end pool, noting that DFS pricing still allows rosters with at least one of them without sacrificing ceiling elsewhere. Bowers was singled out first, underscoring him as the priority pay-up.

Beimfohr called Mike Gesicki "a reasonable DFS play" despite the Bengals adding Noah Fant. He stressed that Gesicki is essentially a slot receiver while Fant "is not even a good tight end," so role overlap is minimal. That hybrid usage and low salary make Gesicki a sneaky tournament piece in Bengals stacks or as a standalone punt.

Beimfohr said Tucker Kraft "could be the focal point of the Packers' passing offense" in Week 1 and expects the Lions to push Green Bay into a pass-heavy script. Given Kraft’s bargain salary (near the positional basement) and Detroit’s ability to score, Beimfohr views Kraft as a high-ceiling salary saver who can differentiate rosters from the chalky spend-up tight-end builds.