Beimfohr lumped Jake Ferguson into the same post-QB, pre-kicker wasteland where drafters are desperate for real upside. He loves scooping Ferguson around pick 145 on Underdog because the Cowboys funnel targets to tight ends in the middle of the field and give them frequent goal-line looks. That profile, combined with the fact that virtually every viable wide receiver is gone by that point, makes Ferguson a clean structural fit: he soaks up touchdown variance in half-PPR while freeing early capital for premium WRs and backs. Beimfohr’s directive: when the receiver board is barren, smash Ferguson and lock in a tight end who can post TE1 weeks without costing you earlier leverage spots.

Erik Beimfohr said he is "about to move Brock Purdy way up" because the 49ers quarterback keeps slipping into the back of the double-digit rounds despite checking every box drafters chase at the position. Purdy finished 2024 first in yards per attempt (9.3) and second in EPA per play, yet his Underdog ADP sits 15–20 spots behind Jared Goff and Bo Nix, quarterbacks Beimfohr argues have identical pocket-passer profiles but significantly lower per-attempt efficiency. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all healthy, San Francisco averaged 0.56 EPA per drop-back—nearly double the league average—giving Purdy weekly 25-point ceilings even without rushing juice. Beimfohr stressed that drafters can snag Purdy around pick 115, stack him with at least one of his yak monsters, and walk away with a fringe top-5 projection while everyone else pays a round earlier for less efficient arms.

Erik Beimfohr said Jalen Hurts falling into Round 5 on Underdog is “straight robbery.” Hurts averaged 24.5 half-PPR points per game last season—third among quarterbacks—and his 15 rushing touchdowns dwarfed every backfield in the NFC East. With drafters prioritizing the shiny new toys in Jaden Daniels and Caleb Williams, Hurts routinely slips to pick 55 where managers can scoop him without owning A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. Beimfohr loves that flexibility: he can grab one or both Eagle wideouts when values present themselves but is never forced to reach. He also noted that Hurts’ price is even cheaper on DraftKings, yet the half-PPR scoring on Underdog amplifies his rushing equity and goal-line “tush-push” sneaks. Beimfohr’s takeaway: hit the draft button whenever Hurts drops past the early fourth; you secure an elite weekly floor, a 35-point playoff ceiling, and can still hammer wide receivers and running backs around him.

Erik Beimfohr said Breece Hall is being criminally under-drafted in Round 4 on Underdog and called him an "absolute smash." Beimfohr ran a 2-v-2 comparison: an early-round wide receiver such as Puka Nakua or CeeDee Lamb plus Hall versus opening with a first-round running back like Audric Jente and later settling for Calvin Ridley or Jamison Williams at wideout. He argued Hall already owns true bell-cow upside whenever he is healthy, while the market’s hand-wringing about Isaiah Davis or a supposed three-back rotation under Aaron Glenn is overblown. Because Hall routinely handles every-down work, landing him in the fourth lets drafters start WR-WR and still secure an RB1 ceiling, creating what Beimfohr believes is the cleanest path to Week-17 firepower in 2025 best-ball tournaments.

Erik Beimfohr grudgingly endorsed Alvin Kamara as a “good pick in the sixth” on Underdog. Kamara quietly ranked RB8 in total half-PPR points last season even after missing four games, thanks to 17.7 touches and 5.9 high-value receptions per outing. Beimfohr acknowledged worries about new quarterback Tyler Shough replacing Derek Carr, but argued that Kamara’s role— 53 % team red-zone share and a 15-carry, 4-target weekly workload— should survive any competency downgrade. In half-PPR formats those rush attempts and goal-line looks carry more weight than the receptions he might lose. At a sixth-round price you are paying for a mid-RB2 yet getting realistic RB1 weekly ceilings without sacrificing elite early-round wide-receiver equity. Beimfohr’s bottom line: click the “gross” veteran, bank efficient yardage-plus-touchdown production, and let everyone else chase uncertain rookie upside at the same cost.

Erik Beimfohr planted his flag on Jarquez Hunter as the no-brainer final-round swing, calling it “highway robbery” to land Kyren Williams’ presumed understudy at pick 212. The Rams spent a third-rounder on the 5’10", 210-pound Auburn dynamo, and both Sean McVay and GM Les Snead have gushed about Hunter’s body-builder frame and three-down skill set. Beimfohr now has Hunter penciled in ahead of Blake Corum—who goes 100 picks earlier—for the RB2 role. That contingency value is enormous: Williams missed chunks of college and has already battled foot and hip issues, yet carried a 77 % snap rate when healthy. If Williams tweaks something, the true backup in McVay’s offense projects for 15-plus touches in a unit that ranked top-10 in red-zone trips last year. Even without an injury, Beimfohr thinks Hunter could siphon high-leverage goal-line work and carve out weekly flex usability. Given day-two draft capital, glowing coach quotes, and a dirt-cheap ADP, he is stuffing Hunter into every late Best Ball roster.

Erik Beimfohr called Will Shipley the single most mis-priced player in best-ball drafts. The Eagles’ depth chart is Saquon Barkley, Shipley and A.J. Dillon after Kenny Gainwell’s departure, leaving Shipley locked into roughly 20 % of snaps from Week 1 in an offense that ranked top-five in red-zone rush rate under Kellen Moore. Beimfohr argued that contingency value is elite: Barkley has missed 21 games in six seasons, and if the 102-overall back sits, Shipley would inherit a bell-cow workload behind Philadelphia’s top-three offensive line. He compared the Clemson rookie’s upside favorably to Trey Benson—who costs six rounds more— and is drafting Shipley in every league until the market corrects what he dubbed "silly" Round-17 pricing.

Erik Beimfohr highlighted Pat Bryant as his Round 16 upside dart. Denver stunned the draft community by spending a third-round pick on Bryant, signalling Sean Payton sees an immediate role. Beimfohr noted the rest of the wide-receiver room is thin—Marvin Mims still isn’t a full-time player and depth options are Lil’Jordan Humphrey types—so Bryant could walk into starting perimeter snaps opposite Courtland Sutton. Payton offenses have historically coaxed usable fantasy weeks from unheralded wideouts (Humphrey, Kenny Stills, Devery Henderson), and a Year-2 leap from Bo Nix should keep pass volume respectable. Beimfohr compared Bryant’s profile to rookie Kyle Williams—who costs five rounds more— and argued the cheap rookie offers genuine spike-week potential in late-season shootouts. He is scooping shares wherever he needs low-cost WR bullets.

Erik Beimfohr called Mike Gesicki his late-round tight-end cheat code, stressing that labeling him a ‘tight end’ is a technicality—Gesicki is really a big slot who never blocks. Joe Burrow personally lobbied the Bengals to bring him back, and with Tyler Boyd gone Cincinnati desperately needs an interior target behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Rookie TE Erick All twice tore the same ACL and Tanner McLachlan is a blocking prospect, leaving Gesicki almost unchallenged for passing-down snaps. Two years ago he commanded a 14 % target share in Miami on similar slot usage, and Beimfohr expects 60-plus looks in a Bengals offense that ranked fifth in red-zone pass rate. Those high-value end-zone targets combined with Burrow’s accuracy give Gesicki a clear path to top-12 fantasy production at a round-15/16 cost—roughly the same price as waiver fodder like Durham Smythe. Beimfohr is happily banking on Gesicki whenever he punts the early-round tight-end tier.

Erik Beimfohr pegged Roschon Johnson as the quintessential Round-15 stash, arguing Chicago’s unsettled backfield gives him multiple outs to relevance. DeAndre Swift sits atop the depth chart, but Beimfohr reminded listeners every staff Swift has played for eventually soured on him, opening the door for Johnson’s reliable pass protection to earn third-down work. At 225 lbs Johnson profiles as the natural goal-line option and, in Beimfohr’s words, "a young Samaje Perine—unspectacular yet trustworthy in every phase." He forecast an initial 60/40 Swift split yet noted GM Ryan Poles’ willingness to churn the roster: one veteran cut landing in another city could instantly elevate Johnson to Chicago’s 1A role. In Ben Johnson’s uptempo offense—projected top-10 in pace and red-zone snaps—eight to ten high-value touches can swing best-ball weeks. At a 15th-round ADP, Johnson offers low-risk insurance with a viable weekly flex ceiling if the depth chart tilts his way.

Erik Beimfohr spotlighted Braelon Allen as his favorite Round-14 swing, dubbing the 19-year-old "the Jason Tatum of running backs" because he is still a teenager yet already built like a 230-pound workhorse. Beimfohr projects a 65/35 split behind Breece Hall but noted OC Klint Kubiak’s Shanahan DNA routinely forces 8–12 touches for the No. 2 back. Pairing Allen with newly acquired rushing quarterback Justin Fields should spike his yards per carry—Mattek’s earlier research showed backs next to mobile QBs gain roughly 0.5 YPC. There is also a non-zero chance New York flips Hall before the deadline to avoid an extension, a scenario that would hand Allen an every-down role for a 14th-round price. Even if a trade never comes, Allen’s size makes him the likely goal-line hammer on an offense that finished seventh in red-zone trips after Fields arrived. Beimfohr believes that blend of standalone value and nuclear contingent upside makes Allen a smash wherever drafters miss on early backs.

Erik Beimfohr said Adam Thielen is a no-brainer Round-14 selection because the market keeps writing his obituary a year too early. Thielen turned 34 last season and still piled up 615 yards and five scores in only 10 games, ripping 9-102 against Philadelphia and 5-110-2 versus Tampa. Those numbers produced WR28 value in points added per game—a pace normally drafted in the sixth round. Beimfohr argued nothing about turning 35 automatically eliminates that role, especially with Carolina’s pass-catcher depth unchanged beyond rookie Tee Mac. Thielen gives early-season stability to builds that lean on volatile upside rookies like Trey Harris or Rashee Rice and still owns the ‘one-week nuke’ profile Best Ball drafters need. With a 14th-round ADP that carries zero opportunity cost, Beimfohr is happily scooping Thielen for 14-point filler weeks and the occasional vintage blow-up when younger studs miss time.

Erik Beimfohr closed Round-13 by touting Tyler Allgeier as the quintessential premium handcuff. Arthur Smith’s Falcons led the league in rush rate over expectation last year (-11 %) and kept the same run-heavy DNA under Zac Robinson, giving Allgeier a weekly 6–8 carry floor in non-Bijan snaps. Beimfohr noted Allgeier already has two games of 20+ fantasy points on his resume and handled 203 touches as a rookie, proof he can shoulder the full load if Bijan Robinson were to miss even a couple quarters with a concussion or hamstring tweak. Falcons RBs combined for 23 carries inside the five in 2024— third-most in the NFL— so any multi-week absence from Bijan would instantly make Allgeier an every-week RB1. At a cost outside the top-150, that blend of defined contingency value and minor standalone scoring equity makes Allgeier an easy late click whenever Beimfohr fades early running backs.

Erik Beimfohr spotlighted Trey Benson as his Round-11 swing, arguing the sophomore back could force a near-even split with 30-year-old James Conner by October. Beimfohr noted Conner has missed at least two games in five of seven NFL seasons while averaging a punishing 19 touches per week. The Cardinals clearly saw the cliff coming— they spent a third-rounder on Benson last year, then gave him 4.6 YPC on limited work and publicly praised his pass-pro chops this spring. Benson’s rookie tape showed several mini-spike games (8-65-1 vs. LAR, 7-48-1 vs. CHI) that matched the explosive profile he flashed at Florida State. Beimfohr projects Arizona to open 2025 using Benson on roughly 40 % of early downs to preserve Conner, a role that already puts him in weekly RB3/FLEX territory in Best Ball. The real payoff is the contingent upside: if Conner’s body finally betrays him, Benson inherits a top-10 workload in an offense that ranked 11th in red-zone trips after Kyler Murray returned. At an ADP that barely cracks the top-130, Beimfohr sees Benson as the perfect blend of standalone value and league-winning ceiling.

Continuing the Chargers love, Erik Beimfohr spotlighted Justin Herbert as a round-10 cheat code. Herbert is routinely available around pick 120 despite ranking top-6 in both fantasy points per drop-back and passing yards in three of his four NFL seasons. Beimfohr argued drafters are overweighting last year’s fractured finger stretch and underweighting the upgrades: Trey Harris stretches the field, Ladd McConkey is an immediate YAC threat, and the offensive line added two day-one starters. New OC Kellen Moore kept Los Angeles top-10 in PROE, a trend Beimfohr expects to continue given a porous defense that invites shootouts. With affordable stacking partners (Harris round 9, McConkey round 7, Bowers round 6), Herbert offers a clean path to 25-point spike weeks without sacrificing early-round capital, making him his favorite mid-round quarterback bet.

Erik Beimfohr planted his flag on second-round rookie Trey Harris as the premier round-9 upside swing. Harris checked every pre-draft box Beimfohr wanted: day-two capital and a landing spot that needs an outside vertical playmaker. The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, leaving only Ladd McConkey and aging Mike Williams to command targets. Harris’ 18.7-yard college aDOT and 4.41 speed align perfectly with Justin Herbert’s top-five deep-ball attempt rate. At an ADP just outside the top-100, Harris carries a WR1 ceiling if he merely proves competent—his path to 100+ targets is clearer than most rookies because Los Angeles ran the eighth-highest pass rate over expectation last season. Beimfohr called him the “slam-dunk” rookie pick who can pay off in Week 17 shootouts.

Erik Beimfohr reminded listeners that Baker Mayfield quietly finished 2024 as the QB4 overall while Tampa averaged top-10 offensive EPA. Mayfield was less than two fantasy points behind Joe Burrow yet costs four full rounds later (Round 8 vs. Round 4). Beimfohr thinks drafters are anchoring to Mayfield’s name value instead of the numbers: 4,508 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and a 7.8 YPA that ranked sixth in the league. The entire skill group—Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan—returns, and OC Liam Coen kept the aggressive down-field concepts that fueled Mayfield’s breakout. With Tampa’s defense projected bottom-12 in pass DVOA, Beimfohr expects another pass-heavy script and sees a realistic top-five ceiling at an eighth-round cost, calling Mayfield the easiest quarterback click in Best Ball drafts’ old-school QB window.

Erik Beimfohr tabbed Stefon Diggs as the sneaky veteran smash in Round 7. The market hates the profile—31 years old, ACL recovery, new team—but Beimfohr argued all that risk is fully priced into a seventh-round ADP. Positive rehab reports keep trickling in, and New England finally landed a true alpha for No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. With the rest of the Patriots’ receiver room consisting of dart-throws like Pop Douglas and rookie Kyle Williams, Beimfohr projects double-digit weekly targets for Diggs once he is up to speed. Diggs still posted a 26 % target share before last year’s Buffalo mess, and historical comps show veterans tethered to top-three rookie quarterbacks often smash. Beimfohr acknowledged the possibility Diggs opens on PUP—he thinks that news would only make the price sweeter—but believes the risk/reward is outstanding for a player who could be Maye’s first-read on every high-leverage play.

Erik Beimfohr targeted Chris Godwin as a screaming Round-6/7 value, reminding listeners that before dislocating his ankle last season Godwin was the WR2 overall—less than a point per game behind Ja'Marr Chase. Tampa’s offense remains "awesome," and Beimfohr argued every fear (age 30, the ankle, first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka, third-rounder Jalen McMillan) is fully baked into a price that would otherwise sit at the 2⁄3 turn. Godwin’s 2024 rebound to 2.36 yards per route—after three straight seasons around 1.75—shows he can still win from the slot when actually deployed there. Beimfohr acknowledged the downside scenarios Davis Mattek later outlined: if the Bucs push Godwin outside again or run a Chiefs-like rotation with all four wideouts playing 65 % of routes, his ceiling evaporates. Still, he believes Tampa will keep the veteran in his high-efficiency slot role while Egbuka and McMillan develop, making the current price a bet-the-logo situation where Godwin’s proven WR1 upside far outweighs the injury and usage risks.

Erik Beimfohr said DeVonta Smith is a glaring Round-4 bargain because the market has over-corrected after last season’s disappointment. Smith sometimes lasts to pick 50 on DraftKings despite a fully consolidated Eagles passing attack that funnels almost every target to A.J. Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Beimfohr argued that drafters are ignoring Smith’s baked-in floor—he has finished no worse than WR21 in any of the last three years while never dipping below a 23 % target share when Brown was absent. He also highlighted Smith’s contingent upside: if Brown were to miss time, Philadelphia does not shift targets to depth receivers like Johnny Wilson; they simply condense them to Smith and Goedert, a pattern we already saw during Brown’s injury games last season. With Jalen Hurts expected to regress back toward 500 pass attempts, Beimfohr believes Smith’s 140-target ceiling is very much alive, making him an easy click in the mid-fourth round of Best Ball drafts.

Erik Beimfohr labeled CeeDee Lamb the best first-round value. Lamb’s 2024 eruption—highlighted by two most-efficient games with backup quarterbacks—proved he is QB-proof and matchup-proof. Despite running mates like Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin and Ryan Flournoy, Lamb still soaked up elite usage and refused to leave the field even while injured. Beimfohr loves the bankable floor/ceiling combo and notes that Lamb’s ADP is a tick cheaper than Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, sometimes sliding past them entirely. He even prefers Lamb over Chase in certain builds, calling him an easy click in early best-ball drafts.

Erik Beimfohr said Dont'e Thornton is a perfect last-round dart on DraftKings. The rookie speedster logged 3.72 yards per route run at Tennessee in 2024 and 2.6 the year prior, flashing big-play chops despite only 94 career targets. Las Vegas invested fourth-round capital to let him fill Trey Tucker’s vacated deep-threat role; Tucker finished fifth league-wide in routes run last year, so the boundary spot rarely leaves the field. With defenses tilted toward Jacobi Meyers and rookie Brock Bowers, Thornton should see single coverage and have a clear runway to one-or-two-catch spike weeks that matter in Best Ball tournaments. Beimfohr is happily scooping him in Round 19/20 as cheap exposure to a Raiders offense that now pairs Geno Smith’s aggressiveness with Pete Carroll’s vertical ethos.

Erik Beimfohr said he is actively hammering Rashee Rice at his current 50-ish ADP on DraftKings because the market is still pricing in a long absence that now looks unlikely. Beimfohr pointed to two separate bullish data points: (1) Rice is already running routes in rehab sessions, suggesting the knee tear is ahead of schedule, and (2) legal analysts expect any league discipline to drag into 2026, meaning a 2025 suspension is improbable. Rice posted 2.21 yards per route run as a rookie and a ridiculous 3.16 in a tiny sophomore sample before the injury, numbers that blew teammate Xavier Worthy’s 1.5 YPRR out of the water. If training-camp reports confirm a full workload, Beimfohr believes Rice’s price will rocket into the early-third and possibly back to the second round, where he was going in last winter’s Big Board contest. He wants to be overweight before that steam, calling Rice “an early-third at worst, maybe a fringe Round-2 pick” if he is a full-go by August.

Erik Beimfohr said the market is sleeping on Rashee Rice because drafters assume a multi-game suspension that is unlikely to materialize this season. Citing cap expert Drew Davenport’s legal-process thread, Beimfohr noted the case is crawling through the courts—making it improbable the NFL hands down discipline before January of 2026. Rice is already ahead of schedule in his injury rehab, so the realistic range of outcomes now includes 15-plus games in 2025 without a Pup stint. That makes his mid-fourth-round ADP a steal compared to teammate Xavier Worthy and other WR2 types like Rome Odunze. Beimfohr likes pairing Rice with Worthy at the 3/4 turn, calling it an easy Mahomes backdoor stack that opponents cannot always execute. He reminded listeners that Rice posted a 25-percent target per route rate as a rookie—identical to rookie-season CeeDee Lamb—and operated as Kansas City’s primary YAC weapon down the stretch. With no guaranteed suspension and Pat Mahomes entering year two in the new spread-heavy scheme, Beimfohr labeled Rice a slam-dunk positive-EV pick in Best Ball and season-long formats.

Erik Beimfohr said fantasy drafters are kidding themselves if they keep clicking Jalen Tolbert simply because he projects to run a bunch of empty routes. Tolbert entered the league as a mediocre Day-2 prospect, has failed to crack a 10-percent target share in any season, and the Cowboys have telegraphed their feelings by refusing to scheme him touches despite having nothing behind CeeDee Lamb. Beimfohr argued that Tolbert’s combination of low draft capital, nonexistent production, and unspectacular athletic profile means he is more likely to be leap-frogged by gadget ace KaVontae Turpin—or, more realistically, lose the secondary looks to tight end Jake Ferguson—than suddenly pop in year three. Because the market is still paying a routes-driven premium in the double-digit rounds, Beimfohr is either skipping the situation entirely or taking Turpin/Ferguson darts instead of holding out false hope that Tolbert turns into something he has never been.

Erik Beimfohr argued that Jake Ferguson is criminally underpriced at an ADP of 138, labeling him the best point-per-dollar tight end in the entire middle tier. Ferguson’s cost collapsed after a modest 2024 and the market’s knee-jerk reaction to his four-TD playoff eruption the year before, yet nothing on the Cowboys’ depth chart has changed—Dallas passed on every free-agent and rookie pass catcher. Beimfohr noted that Ferguson already owns proven multi-touchdown upside and sits in the same offensive ecosystem that funnels 180 targets to CeeDee Lamb. Comparable names like David Njoku, Evan Engram, and Tucker Kraft go 10–25 picks earlier despite offering similar weekly ceilings. Because drafters can still land Dak Prescott in the 120s and late-round flyers like Jalen Tolbert or KaVontae Turpin, Ferguson forms an inexpensive, high-leverage stack that frees up early capital for wide receivers. Beimfohr is smashing the button on Ferguson every time he drifts into Round 12 and thinks the market will correct once drafters realize he provides the same spike-week profile as pricier options.

Erik Beimfohr advised steering clear of the entire Dallas backfield—headlined by Ezekiel Elliott—because the front office seems determined to prove running backs are replaceable by signing the absolute worst options available. Elliott ranked dead last in rush yards over expected per carry last season, while fellow veteran Miles Sanders flamed out on his last free-agent deal. Dallas then paired the duo with Day-3 satellite back Jaden Blue instead of investing in a prospect with actual juice such as Tahj Brooks. Beimfohr mocked the approach, saying the Cowboys have confused 'cheap' with 'non-functional,' and sees no path to league-winning upside in a committee composed of declining vets and undersized rookies. He is fading Elliott in all formats and reallocating those mid-round picks to higher-upside receivers or quarterbacks.

Erik Beimfohr moved CeeDee Lamb up to the 1.02 slot in his Best Ball ranks, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. Dallas ignored pass catcher in both free agency and the draft, meaning Lamb returns to a target vacuum after already leading the league in receptions (143) and finishing second in fantasy points per game. Beimfohr also noted that Lamb proved quarterback-proof during Dak Prescott’s injury stretch—he averaged 20.5 PPR points with Cooper Rush under center in 2023—so the floor remains intact even if Prescott misses time. With unparalleled volume on a proven superstar, Beimfohr prefers Lamb over Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson and views him as the safest non-RB selection on the board.

Erik Beimfohr said drafters should not overreact to Blake Corum’s second-year jump or the Darkwest Hunter pick because Sean McVay flat-out trusts Kyren Williams in ways fantasy spreadsheets cannot capture. Beimfohr’s favorite data point: Williams logged 179 pass-blocking snaps in 2024—nearly 70 more than any other back (Javonte Williams was second at 110). That massive lead shows McVay is willing to leave the 195-pound back in to protect on every passing down, a level of non-situational trust coaches rarely extend. Although Williams finished right at 0 rush yards over expected (hardly elite), the willingness to play him on every down kept his snap rate north of 80 % whenever healthy. Beimfohr expects the Rams to scale back the 95 % “iron-man” usage a hair, but still sees a 70-plus % snap share and full goal-line work. At a third-round ADP he views Williams as appropriately priced, emphasizing that rookies with shinier athletic profiles must actually unseat a coaching-staff favorite who has already proven he can survive three-down punishment.

Erik Beimfohr pushed back on the Josh Jacobs enthusiasm, saying the new Packer comes off the board in the early third round while similar touch projections for Joe Mixon and Chuba Hubbard can be had a full round—or more—later. Beimfohr pointed out that the wide-receiver names available next to Jacobs (DK Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Travis Hunter) carry genuine league-winning ceilings, whereas Jacobs profiles as a ‘maybe he’ll be okay’ volume play. He also noted that Green Bay’s pass-heavy tilt with Jordan Love and three capable receivers could suppress the red-zone carry count that buoyed Jacobs during his 2022 RB1 season. Unless Jacobs slides toward the Mixon/Hubbard price tier, Beimfohr is pivoting to those cheaper backs and scooping the elite receivers that share Jacobs’ current ADP pocket in Best Ball drafts.

Erik Beimfohr warned that Chase Brown’s ballooning ADP—he expects the market to settle around the Round-2/3 turn—ignores several red flags. Brown was only a fifth-round pick and his 2024 breakout came when the Bengals were down to a single healthy running back. Cincinnati quietly restructured Zach Moss’s deal and brought back Samaje Perine, a coaching-staff favorite who has siphoned third-down and two-minute work everywhere he has landed. Beimfohr argued that if Perine reprises that pass-pro role, Brown could lose 40-plus targets and most of the high-value hurry-up snaps fantasy managers are baking in. He compared Brown’s profile to the 2020 Kenyon Drake trap: a solid but unspectacular talent thrust up the board because of vacancy rather than proven elite playmaking. With Chuba Hubbard and Joe Mixon available two rounds later, Beimfohr believes Brown is the riskiest of the so-called ‘projectable-volume’ backs and is comfortable fading him at cost in Best Ball tournaments.

Erik Beimfohr said Tony Pollard is the easiest click in mid-rounds, admitting he has drafted Pollard on every Best Ball team so far. The Titans added Cam Ward at quarterback, signed Calvin Ridley, and spent multiple picks on pass catchers while ignoring running back until late-round flyer Blake Mullings—leaving Pollard with a clear three-down path. Beimfohr emphasized Pollard’s pass-catching chops, which gain extra juice on full-PPR sites he’s currently drafting. With Tennessee’s offense “actually competent” for the first time in years and Pollard still grading well in efficiency metrics, Beimfohr thinks drafters are over-reacting to last season’s Dallas disappointment. Because Pollard’s ADP floats in the fifth-sixth range, he fits any roster construction: hero-RB builds, zero-RB rooms that need a safe floor, or WR-heavy starts looking for bankable receptions. Beimfohr views him as a no-brainer value who will close the summer several rounds earlier once the market realizes the Titans are not the 2023 Patriots.

Erik Beimfohr pushed back on the Moore fade, arguing the 28-year-old still owns a monster ceiling at his Round-3/4 price. He pointed to Moore’s recent 2.31 yards per route run (2023) that ranked 12th in the league—sandwiched between Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel—and reminded listeners Moore posted 2.23 YPRR back in 2020 while catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Kyle Allen. Beimfohr expects a major offensive leap now that Ben Johnson is calling plays, the Bears spent heavily on their offensive line, and Caleb Williams enters Year 2. He views Rome Odunze as more of an NFL-real-life fit than fantasy alpha, and notes Burden’s gadget profile plus off-field red flags make him no lock to command volume quickly. If Chicago’s offense pushes into the league’s top half—an outcome Beimfohr believes the market is still underpricing—Moore could reprise the target-earning form that once put him in the same efficiency tier as A.J. Brown. At an ADP of 36, Beimfohr is happily scooping Moore as the lead piece in Bears passing stacks.

Erik Beimfohr urged drafters to treat anything Sean Payton says about player roles as noise. He cited Coach Speak Index data showing the Broncos’ head coach carries just a 50 percent reliability score—literally a coin-flip—when predicting his own player usage. Beimfohr joked that fantasy managers would be better off putting their $25 Best Ball Mania entry on red at the casino than rearranging ranks because Payton likens Pat Bryant to Michael Thomas or calls every running back the next Alvin Kamara. His advice: wait for preseason snaps or corroborated beat-writer observations before moving Denver skill players up or down, and completely discount Payton’s podium hyperbole in season-long or DFS projections.

Erik Beimfohr said Joe Mixon’s off-season "was about as good as it gets" for a veteran running back. Houston handed Mixon real money, then only traded a future third-rounder for Woody Marks, a player Beimfohr labeled "a straight-up third-down back" who will not threaten early-down or goal-line work. With Bobby Slowik’s offense expected to be even more potent in C.J. Stroud’s second year, Beimfohr projected fewer low-value plunge carries but more red-zone trips and higher scoring equity. He still expects Mixon to clear 240 touches, dominate inside the five, and flirt with double-digit TDs. At a late-4th/early-5th ADP in Best Ball lobbies, Beimfohr thinks drafters are getting a discounted bell-cow tied to an ascending offense and would take him a full round ahead of current cost.

Erik Beimfohr cautioned drafters against treating Bryce Young’s final six games of 2024 as proof the former No. 1 pick has ‘figured it out.’ Young was benched earlier in the season and only reclaimed the job after Andy Dalton’s car accident. Even with a mild improvement down the stretch, his 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt still ranked bottom-three among starters, and at 5' 10" he profiles similarly to Teddy Bridgewater from a ceiling standpoint. Beimfohr worries the market is ignoring a year-and-a-half sample of league-worst efficiency because of a tiny hot streak. Carolina could pivot to a run-heavy approach if Young regresses, capping both his own fantasy output and the Panthers’ passing volume. Beimfohr advised treating Young as a late-round QB3 in Best Ball or superflex, rather than buying into mid-round steam driven by recency bias.

Erik Beimfohr said Tetairoa “T-Mac” McMillan is the rookie wide-out he is most comfortable clicking in the mid-third round of Best Ball drafts. McMillan’s current 35ish ADP bakes in obvious quarterback risk, but Beimfohr argued the upside more than justifies the price. The Panthers made him the No. 8 overall pick, guaranteeing every-down snaps on a depth chart where 34-year-old Adam Thielen is the next best option. Carolina’s defense projects bottom-five again, meaning plenty of negative game script and pass attempts. If McMillan is simply good, there is nothing stopping him from a 140-target season and back-half WR1 finish. Beimfohr acknowledged downside—Bryce Young was benched last year, the offense could skew run-heavy, and T-Mac’s Pac-12 production came against lighter competition—but contrasted that with safer yet lower-ceiling veterans like Garrett Wilson or Tee Higgins who share this ADP pocket. The bet is that raw target-earning ability plus forced volume in Charlotte can outscore more ‘projectable’ WR2 types by the time playoff weeks roll around.

Erik Beimfohr called Trevor Lawrence one of his favorite quarterback targets at current mid-round prices, stressing that Jacksonville’s offseason haul sets up a perfect storm for fantasy upside. The Jaguars traded up for Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall and added Brian Thomas Jr. later in Round 1, then handed the offense to pass-happy coordinator Liam Cohen. Beimfohr believes that trio injects enough vertical juice to turn the Jaguars into a top-tier passing attack and create weekly spike-week ceilings. Because drafters remain lukewarm—Lawrence often lasts until the eighth or ninth round—Beimfohr is hammering Lawrence–Thomas–Hunter stacks as a discounted avenue to elite correlation in Best Ball tournaments.

Erik Beimfohr warned that Travis Hunter’s current 42.4 ADP (late-4th/early-5th) may already be baking in an outcome where the rookie plays full-time offense. Beimfohr likes the landing spot – Jacksonville traded a haul to move to No. 2 overall and intends to feature Hunter at wide receiver – but he emphasized that the variance around a two-way player is still massive. If August camp reports tilt toward more defensive snaps or a true platoon role, drafters paying a top-40 pick could be torched. Conversely, wideouts and rookie RBs going in the same range offer safer volume floors. Beimfohr concluded that once Hunter climbs into the mid-30s he will start pivoting to those alternatives in Best Ball drafts rather than chase an unproven ceiling.

Erik Beimfohr called sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks his favorite true "mega flyer" of 2025 drafts. Brooks logged three straight 1,000-yard seasons at Texas Tech while handling pass-pro, route work and short-yardage duties—exactly the three boxes Cincinnati still needs behind Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Beimfohr reminded listeners that Brown was only a fifth-rounder last year and still flashed RB2 weeks once Joe Mixon left, proving how fantasy-friendly the Bengals’ workhorse role can be. Brooks’ 4.55 forty and above-average 8.85 RAS squashed pre-combine speed concerns, and his 75 missed tackles forced in 2024 ranked top-10 in the country. With only 2022 tape Samaje Perine penciled in as the third-down guy, Brooks could vault to the top of the depth chart if Brown struggles or Moss’s durability issues resurface. Beimfohr recommends scooping Brooks in the final round of every Best Ball draft as pure contingent-value leverage on an elite offense.

Beimfohr was surprised but encouraged when the Rams spent pick 2.14 on Oregon tight end Terrence Ferguson—easily the highest capital the franchise has invested at the position since Tyler Higbee in 2016. Sean McVay has chased a complete tight end for years, rotating specialists like Colby Parkinson (blocker only) and aging Higbee (recovering from ACL). Ferguson brings dual-threat ability: an 80-plus PFF run-blocking grade and a 22% college target share. In McVay’s offense, a TE who can stay on the field for every formation is gold; the Rams targeted tight ends on 19% of routes last season despite lacking talent. If Ferguson claims the full-time role, Beimfohr sees an immediate TE1 ceiling at a double-digit Best Ball ADP and is grabbing shares before camp hype pushes him into the single-digit rounds.

Erik Beimfohr said he will overweight Bhayshul Tuten—and likely Tank Bigsby—while outright fading Travis Etienne after Jacksonville’s regime change. New OC Liam Coen has historically rotated multiple backs, and the new front office immediately spent mid-round capital on Tuten, suggesting he’s their hand-picked piece rather than inherited depth. Beimfohr noted that Etienne’s efficiency has lagged (sub-4.0 yards per carry in 2024) and neither host has ever been bullish on him. With a three-man committee very much in play and trade rumors around Etienne still lingering, Beimfohr views Tuten as the cheapest shot at the Jaguars’ eventual lead role. His approach: star Tuten in every room, scoop Bigsby when the lobby forgets about him, and let someone else pay the Etienne tax.

Beimfohr encouraged taking late-round swings on rookie Jalen Royals after Kansas City scooped him in the fourth round. He compared Royals’ small-school, limited-sample profile to Puka Nacua’s pre-draft résumé: Utah State star, hyper-productive when healthy, but dinged for missing games. Royals slots into a receiver room that—outside of Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and the suspended Rashee Rice—still features depth pieces like Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster. If Royals can actually play, Andy Reid historically has no problem promoting youth (see Rice in 2023). Even a modest 60-percent route share attached to Patrick Mahomes can deliver weekly spike-weeks that win Best Ball tournaments. Beimfohr is not overweighting him yet—targeting 2-4% exposure—but thinks he is exactly the kind of talent-swing that becomes a massive closing-line value if he flashes in August.

Erik Beimfohr said third-rounder Kyle Williams is an easy click in early Best Ball drafts while he’s still discounted. New England just spent real Day-2 capital on him, the same investment Green Bay made in Matthew Golden, yet the Patriots’ depth chart is even softer. Stefon Diggs is 32 and coming off knee surgery, Kendrick Bourne is still rehabbing an ACL, and DeMario Douglas profiles as a slot-only player, so perimeter snaps are wide-open. Beimfohr expects second-year Drake May to push the offense forward under a revamped coaching staff and better offensive line, giving Williams a direct path to 80-plus-percent routes if he can merely prove competent. He warned that the Legendary Upside crew may steam Williams into the 6th-round range later this summer; grab exposure now while he’s a double-digit pick and reevaluate if the market gets carried away.

Erik Beimfohr urged drafters to start flag-planting Pat Bryant now, before his cost catches up to his situation. Denver spent real Day-2 draft capital on the Illinois wideout and Sean Payton immediately compared him to Michael Thomas—a classic Payton over-sell, but still a signal the staff views Bryant as a priority piece, not a depth dart. The Broncos’ current receiver room behind Courtland Sutton is unsettled (Marvin Mims is still a gadget, Devon Velae and Lil’Jordan Humphrey are roster-bubble types, and Troy Franklin appears buried), so Bryant should step right into WR2/WR3 snaps. A second-year Bo Nix operates behind a top-10 offensive line, giving the entire passing game a rising-tide script. Because Sutton will siphon CB1 coverage and media attention, Bryant can develop without being forced into alpha duties, much like Puka Nacua’s rookie runway in Los Angeles. At today’s double-digit ADP you can comfortably take more Bryant than Mims, gaining cheap exposure to an offense Beimfohr expects to out-kick market projections.

Erik Beimfohr said RJ Harvey is tied for the single biggest post-draft winner and should be starred in best-ball lobbies before the market adjusts. Harvey received unexpectedly strong draft capital from the Broncos and walks into a "clean runway" with only Jaleel McLaughlin behind him after the staff clearly soured on Javonte Williams. Sean Payton publicly gushed about Harvey, recalling the exact day he binge-watched two hours of his tape and likening him to the staff’s first choice, Ashton Jeanty. Beimfohr emphasized Denver’s elite offensive line, a second-year Bo Nix offense that should live in scoring range, and Payton’s historical willingness to feed a primary back (Ezekiel Elliott rookie usage as ceiling comp). The only real question is talent, but if Harvey is merely serviceable he can dominate snaps and hit home-run plays in an offense expected to improve. Beimfohr urged drafters to grab him at a near-free ADP now, before the spike-week community inevitably inflates the price.

Beimfohr said he is “all in” on scooping Ladd McConkey shares if Tre Harris mania nudges McConkey’s ADP down a round or two. McConkey’s slot-first role is unchanged, and the rookie still projects as Herbert’s primary chain-mover, but the narrative buzz around Harris could create a temporary price dip. Beimfohr’s ideal outcome is Harris climbing into the 70s overall while Herbert remains flat, allowing drafters to grab McConkey at a slight discount and still stack the Chargers’ passing game. He emphasized treating any McConkey slide as free value rather than a signal of declining opportunity.

Erik Beimfohr said he is gladly scooping Joshua Palmer at his current late-round cost because Buffalo offers a clearer path to fantasy relevance than the market realizes. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, the Bills pass-catcher depth chart is essentially Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid— leaving plenty of snaps and perimeter routes for Palmer. Beimfohr reminded listeners that Palmer produced usable spike weeks with the Chargers whenever Keenan Allen or Mike Williams missed time, so he has already shown he can handle 6–8 targets in a pass-heavy environment. Pairing that track record with Josh Allen’s league-leading deep-ball aggressiveness, a shaky Bills defense that could push shoot-outs, and a price tag below Darnell Mooney’s makes Palmer a quintessential "chaperone" pick who smooths out rookie-heavy builds while still offering top-30 weekly upside.

Erik Beimfohr warned that drafters are pushing Jaydon Blue up to pick ~160 for all the wrong reasons. Blue weighs barely 190-195 pounds, profiles as a gadget back, and could not seize meaningful work at Texas even after C.J. Baxter tore his ACL. True freshmen Wisner and another rookie leap-frogged him, yet the fantasy community is treating Blue like the next Deuce Vaughn or Kamani Vidal simply because they dislike veterans such as Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. Beimfohr stressed that Blue now goes ahead of sturdier options like Tyler Allgeier, Dylan Sampson, Braylen Allen, Jalen Wright, Will Shipley and Woody Marks— backs who either have clearer roles, better draft capital or stronger production histories. Until the market corrects, Blue is a classic trap pick in Best Ball tournaments.