Pat Kerrane warned drafters that Adonai "A.D." Mitchell’s rookie-year upside is far murkier than the market assumes. To secure a starting outside job he must first dislodge Alec Pierce, a vertical threat the Colts coaching staff still values because defenses have to respect his down-field speed. Kerrane pointed out that Pierce’s presence limits Mitchell’s clean-cut “I’m the starter now” path that fellow late-round targets like Jermaine Burton enjoy. Even if Mitchell eventually carves out a role, Kerrane expects a slow on-ramp—rotational snaps and situational deep routes rather than full-time usage—making him a shakier contingent bet in Best Ball drafts where roster spots disappear quickly.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Burton enthusiasm, reminding listeners that the rookie season was a ‘George Costanza trying to get fired’ level of self-sabotage—late to meetings, casino trips the night before games, even showing up in pajamas to position-group installs. Kerrane said the current praise coming out of Bengals camp is merely that Burton has repaired relationships enough to avoid being cut, not that coaches are ready to trust him with real snaps. Until beat writers report Burton is in line for meaningful playing time—or that Cincinnati has scrapped the Yosivas/Charlie Jones rotation entirely—Kerrane refuses to burn an 18-round Best Ball slot on a player whose path to the field remains speculative and whose off-field volatility could resurface at any time.

Erik Beimfohr called Jermaine Burton his boldest late-round swing, arguing the second-year wideout could seize the Bengals’ WR3 job and become a weekly spike-week generator at an undrafted ADP. Beimfohr noted that Andre Yosivas ran “a million routes” last year yet finished woefully inefficient, while safety-blanket veteran Trenton Irwin is no longer on the roster. That leaves only Burton, Charlie Jones, Kendrick Pryor and practice-squad types behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Early camp reports say Burton has ‘his head on straight’ after last season’s off-field fiascos, giving coaches reason to revisit the talent that once earned Day-2 hype and drew George Pickens comparisons. With Mike Gesicki functioning as a slot receiver and Drew Sample primarily blocking, Cincinnati still needs an outside vertical threat—exactly Burton’s skill set. Beimfohr expects Lou Anarumo’s gutted defense to force shoot-outs, keeping Joe Burrow among the league leaders in pass attempts. That combination of open depth chart, pass-heavy script, and free draft cost makes Burton a priority final-round click in Best Ball tournaments where a single late-season eruption can decide $1 million.

Pat Kerrane said George Pickens is a screaming buy at his late-4th/early-5th Best Ball ADP after landing with Dallas. Kerrane expects the Cowboys to lean on Dak Prescott’s arm because the backfield is "non-existent" and the defense projects to regress, creating a pass-heavy game script. OC Brian Schottenheimer has already name-checked Pickens as the wideout they plan to move all over the formation—not just keep him at X—suggesting a full-field route tree. Pickens owns back-to-back seasons over 2.0 yards per route run (2.05, 2.11) despite catching passes from Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields, and a washed Russell Wilson. His Open Score jumped from 48 as a rookie to 70 and then settled at 68 last year, evidence he’s evolved from a contested-catch specialist into a true separator. Playing opposite CeeDee Lamb should force defenses to pick their poison, while Jake Ferguson occupies linebackers underneath. Kerrane believes a 140-plus target season with double-digit touchdown upside is firmly in play, making Pickens the quintessential "fifth-round breakout" a la Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. He has moved Pickens well ahead of ADP in his rankings and is routinely overweight in Best Ball drafts.

Erik Beimfohr pegged George Pickens as the clear non-rookie breakout candidate, predicting he will be drafted in the second round of 2025 best-ball leagues. Pickens already owns a 1,140-yard, 5-TD season and has never dipped below 800 yards despite inconsistent quarterback play. Beimfohr expects a cleaner offensive environment in Pittsburgh this year, believing even league-average QB efficiency unlocks top-12 wide-receiver production for Pickens. The Steelers shifted Roman Wilson inside, freeing Pickens for the full perimeter alpha role, and the third-year wideout’s 19.4-yard career aDOT offers weekly slate-breaking upside. Beimfohr is loading up in the late-fourth/early-fifth round now, confident the market will treat Pickens like 2022-era Jaylen Waddle next summer.

Pat Kerrane explained why he is sitting at 16 % exposure to Puka Nacua and still clicking whenever the Rams star falls outside the top five picks. Nacua posted a ridiculous 3.23 yards per route run last season—easily tops in the league and nearly half a yard better than second-place Nico Collins (2.86). He also racked up 40 targets in his first two NFL games and cleared 2.75 YPRR as a rookie, numbers Kerrane likened to early-career Tyreek Hill. Sean McVay just praised Nacua’s off-field routine and conditioning, easing health concerns that stem from his partial-season college history. Kerrane thinks the market incorrectly treats Nacua as a tier below CeeDee Lamb, even though Nacua is already the clear No. 1 over Davante Adams in Los Angeles. In formats that reward single-week spike weeks, he views Nacua’s combination of target share and after-catch ability as a genuine overall WR1 outcome and is comfortable sacrificing some Christian McCaffrey shares to stay overweight.

Pat Kerrane said he has almost black-listed Derrick Henry at his new first-round DraftKings ADP, calling it a textbook age-cliff trap. Henry was routinely available in the late-third or even fourth round last summer, so drafters are now paying two full rounds of inflation for a 31-year-old back coming off 353 touches and joining a Ravens offense that already plans to work in Keaton Mitchell and Justice Hill. Kerrane admitted Henry could pop a 25-TD season, but argued the opportunity cost is brutal: you pass on elite ceilings from AJ Brown, Puka Nacua or Brock Bowers for a running back who probably needs 20-plus scores to justify the price in half-PPR best-ball scoring. With earlier fades (Saquon last year) still fresh, he is reallocating that early-round capital to high-end wideouts and calling <2 % Henry exposure a feature, not a bug, in his 2025 tournament portfolio.

Erik Beimfohr argued the market has wildly over-corrected on AJ Brown, letting an unquestioned top-five talent fall to picks 17-18. Brown ranked third in yards per route run last season behind only Puka Nacua and Nico Collins while operating in one of the NFL’s most condensed target trees. Beimfohr noted that Philadelphia’s avalanche of one-yard TDs for Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts is pure variance—any shift toward normal red-zone distribution spikes Brown’s fantasy output. Even if the Eagles stay run-heavy, random bounce-back luck could vault Brown back to mid-first valuation. The flexibility is unrivaled: drafters can start with a first-round RB like Jameer Gibbs, then grab Brown, or get unique by pairing him with Brock Bowers or George Kittle at the 1-2 turn. Beimfohr calls Brown a "small-miss, big-win" pick whose only real downside is injury and says he never lets him pass in the second round, flattening exposure across other options to make sure he’s well over market.

Pat Kerrane said Brock Bowers should be getting the same "second-year WR breakout" steam as Brian Thomas or Ladd McConkey, yet drafters are letting him slip to the early-mid first round. He laid out why the rookie is a screaming buy: dependable chain-mover Jacoby Myers guarantees a weekly floor; rookie RB Jamarion Genti will vacuum underneath targets without threatening down-field volume; and field-stretchers Trey Tucker and Deontay Thornton force safeties deep, clearing the slot for Bowers to rack up YAC. Kerrane loves the pairing with Geno Smith—top-10 in success rate—running a high-tempo, quick-hitting attack under Pete Carroll, who brings long-missing stability. A healthier interior O-line should protect Smith far better than Seattle did last year, further juicing play volume. Kerrane projects near-instant double-digit targets for Bowers and believes he will be drafted 1.06 or higher in 2025 redraft leagues. Because 2024 is "the last year you can pair Bowers with CeeDee, Puka or Bijan," he is hammering him whenever he lasts to picks 1.02-1.05 in FFPC Main Events and Best Ball streets.

Pat Kerrane called Brock Bowers one of the obvious skeleton keys to 2025 Best Ball tournaments. Drawing on spike-week data, he highlighted that Bowers logged three nuclear weeks and six spike weeks last year despite scoring very few touchdowns, implying massive positive TD regression is coming. Kerrane emphasized that scouts have labeled Bowers a generational tight-end prospect for years and that he’s checked every box—early-declare dominance, elite athleticism, and immediate NFL production. Because Bowers comes off the board a round or two ahead of Kittle, Kerrane likes building WR-heavy starts and then smashing the Raiders rookie in the third: his WR-like target share plus 30-point ceiling can flip the tight-end slot from a floor play into a weekly hammer. "If Bowers actually finds the end zone," Kerrane said, "he’s going to bury the field."

Erik Beimfohr said George Kittle is the true skeleton key to 49ers stacks and a screaming value at the 3/4 turn. He rattled off Kittle’s 2024 resume: three nuclear weeks (tied for most at the position), nine spike weeks, and 12 usable weeks—so 60 % of his outings beat the field while only three were duds, matching Trey McBride for the fewest. Beimfohr stressed that every other San Francisco pass-catcher carries baggage—Brandon Aiyuk is coming off an ACL, rookie Ricky Pearsall is already nursing a hamstring, Jauan Jennings wants a new contract, and depth names like Jacob Cowing, Jordan Watkins, and Demarcus Robinson inspire little confidence. With Christian McCaffrey another year older and the defense projected to slip, he expects Shanahan to again funnel targets through Kittle, providing both weekly floor and 30-point upside. The combination of league-leading spike-rate and a cheaper ADP than Trey McBride or Brock Bowers makes Kittle a priority Best Ball click; Beimfohr is actively upping exposure whenever he’s available in the fourth or even the 4/5 pocket.

Pat Kerrane said Drake Maye is his single favorite late-round quarterback and called him a true “skeleton key” for Best Ball builds. Kerrane is sitting at 32% exposure on DraftKings and 24% on Underdog—an unusually aggressive stance for him at QB—because he believes the market is overlooking several ceiling signals. First, Vegas gives New England an 8.5-win total and the second-easiest schedule in the league; the Patriots are actually favored in 11 of 17 games, yet still project for plenty of competitive, pass-friendly scripts against elite teams like Buffalo and Baltimore. Second, Maye upgrades from last year’s “dumpster-fire” environment to a competent offensive staff and slightly better weapons, creating a pathway to a C.J. Stroud-style leap. Third, Maye’s willingness to scramble (Kerrane compared the play style to a hybrid of Josh Allen’s power and Jayden Daniels’ decisiveness) supplies critical rushing juice that can swing weekly Best Ball tournaments. Finally, touchdown volatility is on Maye’s side; Kerrane noted that Baker Mayfield jumped from 28 to 41 scores in a single season and argued a similar spike is well within range if New England’s offense merely functions. Given a QB22–QB24 ADP, Kerrane views Maye as a cheap bet on 3,800-plus passing yards, 400 rushing yards, and a puncher’s chance at 30 total touchdowns—outcomes that would bury the pocket of the draft where he’s currently available.

Pat Kerrane spotlighted Tank Bigsby’s massive efficiency jump, noting the second-year back ranked 11th in rush yards over expected in 2024—finishing ahead of J.K. Dobbins and James Conner—after a brutal rookie season. Kerrane thinks that profile makes Bigsby the favorite for early-down "move-the-chains" work in Jacksonville’s three-headed backfield with Travis Etienne and Bachel Tootin. Because Etienne’s price remains the highest and Tootin is viewed as the pass-catcher, Bigsby offers the cleanest path to 10–12 carries plus goal-line equity at a double-digit ADP. Kerrane framed him as a cheap hedge on any Lawrence stack: if the Jaguars offense hums, Bigsby’s efficiency plus touchdown upside will pop; if the pass game stalls, volume tilts his way anyway. He’s upping exposure before preseason games make the improved play too obvious to the market.

Pat Kerrane said he has backed off Will Shipley—down to 4 percent exposure—because the rookie’s ADP has climbed into the 160s despite offering virtually no stand-alone touches behind Saquon Barkley. Kerrane prefers late-round backs who can force their way onto the field like Kyren Williams did last year, arguing Shipley is a binary bet whose only path is a Barkley injury. In an 18-round Best Ball format geared toward late-season upside, Kerrane believes tying up a roster slot in a probable zero is sub-optimal when wide-open situations such as Carolina’s or Arizona’s still produce backs with both contingent and emergent value. He will mix Shipley if the price falls, but at current cost he is directing that capital to rookies with clearer breakout pipelines such as RJ Harvey and Bachel Tootin.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Mitchell enthusiasm, warning that even a Derrick Henry injury may not unlock a workhorse role. Kerrane expects the Ravens to default to a committee of Justice Hill, Mitchell and rookie Rasheen Ali if Henry were sidelined, noting that Mitchell’s frame (179 lbs) makes him best suited for 6-8 specialized touches rather than 15‐plus carries. He compared the profile to Donnel Pumphrey and flagged that Baltimore gave Hill most of the No. 2 work last year. Kerrane is comfortable bidding FAB on Mitchell in season-long after an injury clarifies the depth chart, but is reluctant to burn an 18-round Best Ball spot on a player whose ceiling usage remains speculative and whose recovery from ACL surgery has yet to be proven in live action.

Erik Beimfohr said he is “hammering” Keaton Mitchell in the final rounds because the second-year back offers both weekly splash-play juice and massive contingent upside behind 32-year-old Derrick Henry. Beimfohr reminded listeners that Mitchell was a true early-declare out of East Carolina who averaged 7.2 yards per carry on 200 totes and caught 27 passes in his final collegiate season, then flashed game-breaking speed (1.24 yards per route run) before tearing his ACL. Beat writers now report the knee looks fully healthy, and Mitchell himself says he feels “better, faster, healthier than before the injury.” Beimfohr expects Baltimore to protect Henry’s workload—dropping him from 30 carries to the low-20s—and funnel 6-10 touches plus screens to Mitchell each week, giving him spike-week viability even with Henry active. If Henry misses time, Beimfohr believes Mitchell’s breakaway profile could create a rookie-year-Achan scenario in the league’s most efficient rushing offense, a tournament-swinging outcome that is impossible to find elsewhere at an 18th-round ADP.

Pat Kerrane said Bhayshul Tuten is his single highest-rostered player because the market has overreacted to a May rookie-camp fumble. The fourth-rounder (pick 104) is already repping with the Jaguars’ first team, hinting at an early-season three-way committee with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby that could tilt toward Tootin by November. At Virginia Tech he posted an 81% backfield share, broke tackles at will, ran a route on 54% of drop-backs, and owns a 9.39 RAS at 206 lbs—numbers Kerrane’s model equates with RJ Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson once draft capital is normalized. Etienne has looked sluggish since mid-2023 and Bigsby offers no pass-game juice, so Kerrane sees a clear path to a late-season workhorse. Stacking Tootin with Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange or Dayami Brown costs almost nothing, making him a priority hammer on Underdog (32% exposure) and an even bigger steal on DraftKings.

Erik Beimfohr called Omarion Hampton the lynchpin of his “Triple-H” rookie running-back approach—Hampton, RJ Harvey, TreVeyon Henderson—arguing the trio can replicate first-round RB production while letting drafters load up on elite wideouts, quarterbacks, or tight ends early. Even after a recent ADP spike triggered by Najee Harris’s eye issue, Beimfohr still views Hampton as a bargain because all camp chatter suggests the Chargers plan to make him their Week-1 bell-cow. By grabbing Hampton at the 3-4 turn and pairing him with Harvey and Henderson in the 5-6 range, drafters secure immediate touches plus towering late-season upside if the rookies fully seize their backfields. The construction frees salary-cap style capital for premium talent elsewhere, effectively turning Hampton into a roster-building skeleton key rather than just a single pick.

Erik Beimfohr said Zay Flowers is the quintessential “small miss, big win” target in Best Ball. Although Flowers is not the prototypical alpha red-zone body, Beimfohr argued that great receivers still stumble into double-digit touchdowns—citing Deontae Johnson’s and Terry McLaurin’s spike seasons—as long as they play with an elite quarterback. John Harbaugh openly admitted the offense has to feed Flowers, calling him their best pass-game weapon outside Lamar Jackson. That mandate plus Flowers’ 2.25 YPRR as a rookie gives him a realistic 140-target, 12-TD ceiling, yet his ADP sits in the mid-fifth round. Beimfohr framed the downside as merely wishing you’d taken him in the seventh, while the upside is a league-winning Ravens stack that buries the field if Todd Monken leans pass-heavy.

Erik Beimfohr told listeners to stop chasing DeAndre Swift now that his price has rocketed from the mid-70s to the mid-50s overall. Beimfohr has 15 percent Swift at a 76 ADP and said those early shares already give him the best leverage; there’s no reason to keep buying when the backfield remains murky and the role is unchanged. He noted that full-PPR drafters on Drafters are over-paying even more aggressively, while half-PPR Underdog scoring never justified the new tag in the first place. His advice: let the market “steam itself,” sit out until the room cools, and redeploy the saved capital on cheaper risers like Tyrone Tracy or the Giants rookie backs instead of forcing Swift at an inflated cost.

Pat Kerrane said Zay Flowers is the "skeleton key" to a high-upside Ravens stack because his current fifth-round ADP lets drafters take Lamar Jackson in the third, grab Flowers two rounds later and still circle back for Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely at palatable prices. Kerrane pointed out that Flowers posted 2.25 yards per route run in Year 2 and is already Baltimore’s clear No. 1 wideout. If the Ravens lean into the pass—whether because Derrick Henry finally shows age, defensive injuries force shoot-outs, or Todd Monken simply steps on the gas—Flowers has a path to a 140-target season. Kerrane argued that drafters must be "absolutely sure" the volume never spikes, because if it does, a fifth-round Flowers attached to an MVP-caliber quarterback will bury the field. He’s prioritizing Lamar/Flowers starts and then hammering rookies like RJ Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson in the sixth to round out the build.

Erik Beimfohr warned that KaVontae Turpin’s new hybrid role is “really bad for Jaydon Blue,” the UDFA many had penciled in as Dallas’s pass-catching back. Schottenheimer’s praise of Turpin as a backfield “weapon” who doesn’t need much space mirrors exactly what fantasy drafters hoped to hear about Blue. Turpin already stole first-team hand-offs on Day 1 and is being cross-trained at every receiver spot, meaning the Cowboys can script Jet motion, screens and traditional carries for him without telegraphing plays—precisely the niche Blue needed to secure to matter in Best Ball. Beimfohr concluded that Blue’s path to the Tavon Austin/Nyheim Hines style workload has evaporated; he is now a near-zero in 20-round drafts and a total cross-off on Underdog.

Erik Beimfohr said KaVontae Turpin is suddenly the wild-card in Dallas after Brian Schottenheimer spent multiple consecutive pressers gushing that Turpin has “no fear,” elite speed and can be “moved all over the field.” Beimfohr emphasized that Turpin took hand-offs with the first team on Day 1 of camp, a signal the staff truly sees him as a backfield weapon rather than a token gadget wideout. Turpin logged carries in high school, is already one of the NFL’s top returners, and Schottenheimer’s track-and-course comment suggests the OC is actively teaching him running-back landmarks. Beimfohr projected a realistic weekly line of 5–6 carries plus 3–4 targets, which would siphon the high-value touches fantasy gamers hoped would go to Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders or UDFA Jaden Blue. In 20-round Best Ball formats, he views Turpin as a final-round spike-week dart while simultaneously lowering the ceiling of every other Dallas runner.

Pat Kerrane upgraded Kyle Williams after multiple beat reports had the rookie repping with the starters and flashing after-catch burst. While he still expects Williams to open behind veteran boundary options, Kerrane believes the Patriots’ depleted receiver room will have a package for Williams early, avoiding the Jalen Polk treatment that buried last year’s Day-2 pick. With New England likely to chase points, the rookie’s inside-outside versatility gives him a path to mid-season breakout volume, making him worth a stash in the final rounds of deep Best Ball drafts.

Pat Kerrane said camp reports confirm Braelon Allen has locked down the Jets’ power-back job, prompting a four-spot rise in his rankings. Coaches are ‘excited about him as their big back,’ suggesting Allen will handle short-yardage and clock-killing work behind Breece Hall. Kerrane emphasized that Allen’s 240-pound frame and 4.4 speed give him immediate touchdown equity in a Nathaniel Hackett offense that ranked top-10 in red-zone rush rate last season. He now views Allen as a priority late-round spike-week pick in Best Ball.

Pat Kerrane noted that rookie Isaac Guerendo is getting consistent No. 2 reps behind Christian McCaffrey and moved him up his board. With Elijah Mitchell dealing with the usual nicks and Jordan Mason relegated to special-teams work, Guerendo’s 4.33 speed and 220-pound frame give the 49ers the explosive big-back profile Kyle Shanahan likes for spot starts. Kerrane views Guerendo as one injury away from weekly RB2 usage in the league’s most efficient rushing attack, making him a must-draft final-round stash.

Pat Kerrane bumped Tank Bigsby up his ranks after a beat writer charted every Trevor Lawrence snap and found a "decent amount" of hand-offs going to Bigsby alongside Travis Etienne and rookie Tutton. Kerrane originally faded Bigsby because of a two-down profile, but the data shows Jacksonville is rotating him regularly with the 1s. If that usage holds, Bigsby would be the early-down hammer in what now looks like a three-back committee, giving him contingent-plus standalone value at his current double-digit Best Ball price.

Erik Beimfohr said Roman Wilson has been running as a starting wideout in both 11- and 12-personnel during the first week of Steelers camp while Calvin Austin slides inside in 11. Beimfohr noted that consistent first-team reps this early usually foreshadow a real role when the games start, making the rookie worth a late Best Ball flyer despite Pittsburgh’s crowded room. The access to every rep in camp convinced him Wilson carries more weekly spike-week potential than ADP assumes.

Erik Beimfohr wrestled with Isiah Pacheco’s seventh-round ADP, ultimately labeling it a classic dead-zone trap. He pointed out that Kansas City has quietly rebuilt the backfield around him—re-signing Kareem Hunt, adding Elijah Mitchell, and drafting a "pass-catching" rookie—creating a clear path to a messy committee. Pacheco himself is a former seventh-rounder who has already battled injuries and, in Beimfohr’s words, was "truly terrible" at points last season before the team leaned on Hunt. Add the Chiefs’ perennial pass-first philosophy (they remained top-five in pass rate even during last year’s offensive "down" season) and Beimfohr sees limited ceiling relative to backs going a round or two later. He remains roughly market-weight in Best Ball Mania only because the room occasionally lets Pacheco slide, but prefers betting on cheaper committee mates as leverage against the downside.

Pat Kerrane said he is largely punting the crowded "Tier-2" tight-end window and is instead loading up on Hunter Henry in the final rounds. Kerrane argued that fantasy drafters are historically terrible at guessing which name will finish TE7 versus TE12, yet the market prices that difference as if it matters. By waiting for Henry—whose ADP is four to six rounds after the Hawkinson/Engram/Kincaid pocket—managers still capture a full-time route runner with red-zone equity, while freeing up earlier draft capital for premium wide receivers. Kerrane noted he pairs Henry with other ultra-late darts such as Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki and Brenton Strange to ensure he isn’t "left out in the cold" at the position without paying the mid-round tax.

Erik Beimfohr warned that Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s sophomore breakout odds are being overrated because Seattle’s entire offensive ecosystem could crater. He called the Seahawks his 2024 "house-of-cards" unit: Sam Darnold behind a bad offensive line, Cooper Kupp mis-cast as the aging WR2, and zero contingency plan if Darnold starts seeing ghosts again. Beimfohr argued that in a week-five scenario where Seattle is winless, drafters will refuse to start JSN—even in a plus matchup versus Atlanta—because the passing game will be radioactive. With the offensive floor "easily worst in the league," he is trimming JSN exposure, preferring receivers in the same tier tied to steadier quarterback play and line play. Actionable takeaway: stay underweight JSN in best-ball drafts until Seattle shows a functional Plan B at quarterback.

Pat Kerrane admitted he is underexposed to Tyrone Tracy—even though the converted wide receiver is penciled in as the Week-1 starter with a true three-down workload. Tracy, unlike Cam Skattebo, has the draft-capital edge and will open the season handling passing-down duties plus goal-line work. Kerrane likened the situation to Rachaad White holding off Sean Tucker last year, noting Tracy "is good enough to hold off his backup" and could simply keep piling up high-value touches if the rookie behind him is "just not ready." Because ADP inflation has centered on Skattebo, Tracy now goes a round later despite the immediate lead role; Kerrane says he plans to boost exposure, viewing Tracy as a boring but potentially profitable pick who could consolidate the backfield before the fantasy playoffs.

Pat Kerrane said Cam Skattebo is one of the few running backs in the pick-100 range he actively targets. Although the fourth-round rookie is "really slow" and carries a non-starter floor, Kerrane believes the skill-set box score is exactly what fantasy gamers want if he ends up atop the depth chart: consistent tackle-breaking, short-yardage prowess, and legitimately good hands. He compared Skattebo’s profile to Panthers-era Mike Davis—chunk gains, reliable receptions, and every goal-line carry—even noting the rookie already has tape fans who thought he could have snuck into Day-2 of the draft. Kerrane projected that Skattebo is "the guy I would bet on to be the starter by the end of the season" because coaches love his attitude and he can consolidate all the high-value work if Tyrone Tracy falters. At current ADP he sees Skattebo as "Charbonnet with an actual path to the job," giving him contingent-plus standalone upside that justifies a steady best-ball click rate.

Erik Beimfohr called the New York Giants backfield “the biggest conundrum of 2024” because both rookies—Tyrone Tracy and Cam Skattebo—sit right at pick 100 despite zero clarity on roles. He admitted he leans Skattebo purely on vibes and past prospect bias, yet concedes that Tracy’s surprising 2023 senior-year explosion and receiving chops give him a credible ceiling. The problem is price: drafters are paying eighth-/ninth-round capital for backs tethered to a bottom-five offense that just lost Saquon Barkley, features a patchwork offensive line, and projects for negative game scripts. Beimfohr asked why anyone should burn a premium pick when cheaper backs with clearer paths—Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears, or any of the Cowboys committee—go later. Until one runner separates in camp, he plans to fade both Giants options, grabbing them only when they slide multiple rounds past ADP.

Pat Kerrane said Rome Odunze’s fifth-/sixth-round ADP forces you to pay for a near-star outcome even though his rookie efficiency profile was mediocre. Odunze managed only 1.18 yards per route run on 602 rookie routes—behind contemporaries Jalen McMillan (1.22) and Xavier Legette (1.19) and well below second-year breakout archetypes such as Jahan Dotson (1.39) and George Pickens (1.38). Kerrane rattled off a laundry list of similar rookies who were ninth-round picks the next summer—Rashod Bateman 1.26, Nico Collins 1.24, Romeo Doubs 1.36—arguing Odunze is being priced as if the leap is already banked in. Yes, Chicago upgraded everything: Ben Johnson calling plays, a rebuilt offensive line, Caleb Williams, and extra weapons that should take defensive attention off Odunze. Johnson even made Kalif Raymond efficient in Detroit. Still, Kerrane thinks drafters are ignoring how many promising wideouts never graduate from the 1.1–1.3 YPRR range. Odunze has to be “Chris Olave on the Bears offense,” as Kerrane put it, to justify this cost. He remains deeply underweight, comfortable missing the breakout unless the price drops a full round.

Erik Beimfohr said he has just 3% Odunze and is unlikely to add more because there are lower-cost lottery tickets who offer a similar ceiling without Odunze’s hefty draft-capital tax. Odunze now goes side-by-side with Travis Hunter, yet Hunter supplies comparable raw athletic upside and could see two-way usage after being taken second overall. Beimfohr noted the same statistical red flags Kerrane highlighted—1.18 YPRR, 11% first-read rate—but added that Odunze was actually the Bears’ fourth option behind Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and even second-round TE Colson Loveland in last year’s design. Drafting him now requires “blind faith” that Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, the offensive line, and a host of pass-catcher depth-chart variables all align. Beimfohr prefers scooping Hunter or other late-fifth/early-sixth rookies like Ladd McConkey as cheaper ways to chase a Year-2 breakout archetype.

Pat Kerrane said he owns only 1% Rome Odunze because the sophomore’s ADP around pick-56 demands too many things go right at once. Odunze’s rookie numbers were rough: 602 routes yet just 1.18 yards per route run, tied with Greg Dortch and below Xavier Legette, while his 11% first-read target rate sat in the MVS/Nick Westbrook-Ikhine tier. Kerrane compared that profile to Rashod Bateman— viable NFL receiver, but rarely a weekly fantasy starter. For Odunze to pay off you need Caleb Williams to jump immediately under new OC Ben Johnson, the rebuilt offensive line to gel, Luther Burden to stay quiet, DJ Moore not to rebound, and Odunze himself to leap from tertiary-level usage to true alpha. That is, as Kerrane put it, an “eight-leg parlay you’re drafting at 56 overall.” His plan is to stay well underweight until the price drops into the late 7th or the underlying metrics show real progression in preseason.

Pat Kerrane said he is treating the Saints as a portfolio fade rather than a stack target. He is underweight on Chris Olave, calling the sixth-round ADP ‘minor-to-medium’ too high for a wideout who “gets hospital-balled every two weeks” and now has rookie Tyler Shuck — whom he ranks among the NFL’s worst starters — throwing passes. Kerrane refuses to double-tap New Orleans in Rounds 5-6, so Alvin Kamara is also off his board at current late-fifth pricing. Rashid Shaheed’s knee recovery, Juwan Johnson’s replacement-level profile, and the lack of a clear RB2 (Kendre Miller, Devin Neal, or a future veteran) leave him with no auxiliary options he actually wants. With beat writers and betting markets projecting the Saints as a bottom-three real-life team, Kerrane prefers a ‘sprinkle’ of Olave and nothing else, accepting that if New Orleans somehow hits he will simply lose to those willing to chase a bleak offense.

Pat Kerrane loves Olave’s profile—his worst season-long yards per route run is a sterling 2.07 and he has cleared 2.0 in all three NFL campaigns after being the 11th overall pick. The problem is everything around him. New Orleans handed the offense to rookie Tyler Shuck, with Spencer Rattler as the fallback, a duo Kerrane called "bad and worse." Kellen Moore’s first-year head-coaching incentives point to a conservative, possibly Arthur-Smith-style run-heavy script to keep the kid quarterbacks from imploding. Add repeated concussion issues and no veteran pivot (Jameis Winston is gone) and Kerrane can’t justify his typical "bet talent over situation" mantra here. He sits at just 4% Olave exposure in Best Ball Mania despite ranking the player slightly ahead of ADP, routinely choosing TreVeyon Henderson or other upside swings in the same pocket. Actionable takeaway: stay underweight Olave until the Saints provide real quarterback competency or his price slips into the mid-fifth round.

Erik Beimfohr said Swift’s cost has officially outrun the reward in best-ball lobbies. He rattled off current ADPs—Underdog 71 (RB24), DraftKings 66, and a jarring 56.8 on Drafters’ cumulative-points contest—pointing out the back has jumped almost two full rounds in a month. Beimfohr still concedes a clear volume path (no veteran addition, Roschon Johnson projects as a Jamal Williams/Samaje Perine change-of-pace plodder), but argued the new fifth-round price leaves zero room for Swift’s notorious volatility: career-high 212 carries, 7% target share down the stretch in Philly, and a history of durability issues. He plans to stop clicking Swift entirely if the ADP stays inside the fifth, will only sprinkle exposure at the 6/7 turn on Underdog, and prefers swinging on rookies like RJ Harvey and Isaac Guerendo in the same range. The upshot: fade Swift on Drafters and soft home-league boards where the volume narrative is already baked in.

Erik Beimfohr said he is torn on DeAndre Swift’s soaring sixth-round ADP. Swift is projected for clear lead-back volume because Chicago never signed another veteran, and beat writers barely mention Roschon Johnson while describing rookie Kyle Mononga as a mere change-of-pace option. Beimfohr noted the reunion with former Lions coordinator Ben Johnson and a potential second-year leap from Caleb Williams could make the Bears offense a fantasy gold mine. That upside explains why ‘running-back bros’ keep pushing Swift up draft boards. The concern: Swift’s profile still carries a historically low weekly floor—he has never topped 212 carries in a season, has battled durability issues, and his pass-game role cratered to a 7% target share down the stretch in Philadelphia. At current cost you must decide whether you are paying for the optimistic projection or risking another Mike Davis-style trap. Beimfohr concluded he will only click Swift when he slides to the 6/7 turn and he is desperate for a back, preferring upside rookies like RJ Harvey at equal prices.