John Lanfranca is laying up to –140 on Miesha Tate, convinced the former champ’s takedown-heavy approach will overwhelm Yana Santos’ porous 43 % takedown defense. Lanfranca pointed to Tate’s last outing against Julia Avila, where she shot within the first 10 seconds of every round, and expects identical urgency here because Tate ‘doesn’t want damage at this stage of her career.’ Santos was grounded four times by Holly Holm and has struggled whenever opponents chain wrestle. With a clear path to top-control minutes and little fear of Santos’ striking, Lanfranca views the current price as a discount and would keep firing until it crosses –150.

Millz Young broke down why the modest –135 line on Miesha Tate still holds value. Tate’s trademark clinch-and-trip wrestling led to 115 ground strikes and a third-round submission of Julia Avila, and Millz likes that she has spent her late-career hiatus adding functional muscle. Santos tallied 115 strikes in her last outing and must stay upright to win, but Millz doubts she can consistently stuff Tate’s chain-takedown attack. He projects Tate to bank control time, rack up ground strikes and potentially find a late submission, advising bets on Tate money-line or Tate round-3/decision props.

The Weasle labeled Miesha Tate a layup pick, forecasting a 30-27 decision. He emphasized Yana Santos’ takedown defense is "not that strong"—Holly Holm took her down at will with basic kicks-to-trips and double-legs. Tate still owns the superior wrestling pedigree and top control, and if Holm can dominate the clinch, Tate should have an even easier time. Expect Tate to dump Santos repeatedly, rack up control time, and cruise on the scorecards. Betting angle: Tate money-line and Tate by decision props.

Matty Betss advised betting Miesha Tate ‘inside the distance’ at +425 rather than locking into a specific submission line. He sees Yana Santos’s shaky takedown defense leading to repeated mat returns, where Tate can either hunt the rear-naked choke or pound her out. Betts noted Tate’s own comments that she’s not looking for a decision and wants to send a statement for another title run, making late-round ground-and-pound particularly live. He personally sprinkled KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3 (upwards of +1300) but said the generic finish prop captures both likely paths. Tate is 38, yet Betts believes Santos—winless since 2021—has regressed more, setting up one-way traffic once the former champ gets on top.

DFS Army said he will be way over the field on Miesha Tate because her wrestling-heavy style should shred Yana Santos’ 42 % career takedown defense. Tate still averages just over two takedowns per 15 minutes and proved she can still chain-wrestle in her December 2023 win over Julia Avila. The host expects multiple takedowns, extended top control, and a live rear-naked-choke finish, the exact scoring recipe DraftKings rewards through 5-point takedowns and control bonuses. With few reliable mid-range grapplers on the slate, he is comfortable locking Tate into GPP cores and cash builds while limiting Santos exposure to small KO-only sprinkles.

Sniper said Miesha Tate is one of his favorite leverage plays on the slate because the stylistic matchup screams wrestling dominance. Tate still averages just over two takedowns per minute across her career, and Sniper noted she proved the chain-grappling is intact by controlling Julia Avila in her most recent fight. Yana Santos, meanwhile, owns only a 42 percent career takedown-defense rate and was taken down four times by Holly Holm— a Hall-of-Fame boxer who rarely wrestles. Sniper expects Tate to replicate that success, rack up control-time points, and threaten the signature rear-naked choke that has produced seven of her 19 wins. Age concerns do not bother him because both women have long careers and Santos has fought just once in 18 months. Sniper will be “way over the field” on Tate in GPPs while limiting Santos exposure to fade chalky volume striking that scores poorly if she is grounded.

Cody Saftic backed Miesha Tate to win by decision at roughly +150, calling it a tailor-made matchup that still lets the 37-year-old lean on her one elite skill—wrestling. He pointed out that Holly Holm took Yana Santos down four times and that several others have banked rounds simply by putting Kunitskaya on her back. Tate, a BJJ black belt and former champ, fights only once a year but builds full camps around grinding on the mat; when she gets that fight-to-ground game plan (see the Julia Avila choke), it still works. Saftic conceded Tate’s stand-up will never be world-class, yet argued Santos’ own striking is hardly threatening and her defensive grappling continues to erode as she nears 35. He expects Tate to shoot early, rack up control time, and survive late scrambles because Santos’ gas tank fades whenever she is forced to pummel for under-hooks. Added narrative juice: the UFC will want the Hall-of-Famer’s hand raised on free TV; if the rounds are close he trusts the judges, the crowd, and even broadcast optics to break Tate’s way. Betting angle: play Tate by decision, hedge small on fight goes distance, and wait to see if the moneyline drifts from –135 toward pick’em before kick-off.

Kunath called Miesha Tate the best betting value on the card at roughly –142 and even juicier via the submission prop. He argued Tate has remained in three-round shape through retirement and still possesses some of the division’s slickest back-takes. Yana Santos impressed against Chelsea Chandler, but her career-long Achilles heel—poor takedown defense—hasn’t improved. Because Santos’ striking lacks the power to scare Tate off level changes, Kunath envisions the former champ shooting early, chaining attempts, and effortlessly securing top position. No opponent has submitted Santos in the UFC, yet Kunath believes that changes Saturday: Tate’s suffocating ride positions and half-guard back exits should eventually expose Santos’ back, where “Cupcake” sinks the rear-naked choke. He labeled the submission prop “free real estate” and advised stacking Tate in parlays or targeting the sub line for bigger plus money; DFS players get grappling points and finish equity at a moderate salary.

MMA Guru sided with Miesha Tate (a slight favorite) to dominate Yana Santos chiefly through top control. He ripped Santos’ career-long habit of accepting bottom position, pointing to Ketlen Vieira riding her back for extended stretches and Santos resorting to harmless elbows off her back. By contrast, Tate owns a genuine wrestling pedigree, has already logged a successful comeback victory and 'held her own versus top contenders' despite losses. Guru believes the current women’s bantamweight talent pool is so shallow that former champs like Tate—or even Ronda Rousey or Sara McMann—could make real runs, underscoring how limited Santos’ evolution has been. Expect Tate to hit easy takedowns, rack up control time and cruise to either a late ground-and-pound stoppage or a clear decision; Guru recommended betting Tate straight and potentially the Tate-by-decision prop.

Bedtime MMA sided with veteran Miesha Tate over Yana Santos. While acknowledging Tate is pushing 40, he feels Santos looks even more dated— “a bygone 2017 fighter.” Santos’ karate-style kiai striking produces volume without damage, and her defensive grappling is suspect. Tate still owns strong top control and submission chops, so the tout expects her to drag Santos down, blob her for long stretches, and either grab a choke or pocket a decision.

Daniel Gumby Vreeland backed Miesha Tate at –138, predicting Cupcake will rinse-and-repeat takedowns on Yana Santos just like Holly Holm did. Gumby reminded listeners that a 41-year-old Holm put Santos on her back four times last July despite Holm’s wrestling never being elite. Tate, by contrast, averages 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, converts at a 32 % clip, and owns eight career submission wins. He also cited Santos’s –81 differential in combined control time over her last three losses and the fact she has only a +1.30 striking margin to offset shaky 50 % takedown defense. Tate has been inactive but looked sharp in her December 2023 submission of Julia Avila, and her superior top control (1:49 average per round) should let her grind out three rounds here. Vreeland therefore likes the money-line favorite and will look at decision props around +140.