Everett took Kansas City +3, framing the matchup as two desperate 1-2 Super Bowl hopefuls. Potential returns of WR Xavier Worthy for KC and ongoing absences of DT Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy for Baltimore tilt the defensive trench battle toward the Chiefs. With both clubs leaning on top-10 defenses and the total dropping, Everett prefers banking the home field goal in what he projects as a low-scoring slog.

Doug Burrell endorsed Chiefs +2.5, stressing that Patrick Mahomes is 8-3-1 ATS as an underdog and rarely gets points at Arrowhead. He highlighted Baltimore’s defense ranking 22nd in success rate allowed and now missing interior stalwart Justin Madubuike, while Kansas City’s interior line is strong enough to let Mahomes step into deep throws. Burrell also credited Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, which sits near the top of the league in EPA/play allowed and limits explosive plays, a bad matchup for a Ravens attack still searching for rhythm. Lamar Jackson carries a -0.012 EPA per dropback and Baltimore is 22nd in early-down success rate. Historically, Spagnuolo game-plans mobile quarterbacks into underneath throws, keeping scores tight. Given those factors, Burrell felt taking points with a healthy Mahomes and an underrated Chiefs defense was the superior side.

Vic Tafur laid 2.5 with Baltimore even though the Ravens have allowed 97 points (tied most in the league). He no longer trusts Patrick Mahomes’ receiver-light attack to capitalize, whereas Kansas City’s leaky run defense sets up Derrick Henry — eager to atone for early fumbles — to pound out clock and cover.

Dabbundo played Ravens first-half winner at –115 to avoid late-game chaos. Kansas City sits eighth in EPA per drive only because Patrick Mahomes leads the league in scramble EPA; the Chiefs lack a ground attack and elite line play, two areas Baltimore’s defense typically struggles against. By contrast the Ravens offer multiple paths to easy offense and have historically jumped on opponents before their trademark collapses. Betting the first half lets him capture that edge while dodging potential Mahomes magic in the fourth quarter.

Walder projected a double-digit Ravens victory over Kansas City. He argued Detroit’s success last week stemmed from a dominant ground attack, something the Chiefs lack (ranked 28th in rush EPA). Without a credible run threat to slow Roquan Smith’s front, Walder expects Baltimore’s offense (already league-leading 111 points despite a 1-2 record) to separate while its defense plays lighter boxes. The call makes Baltimore –2.5 a strong ATS play and presents value on alternative-spread markets.