With no line posted yet, Kenny G said he is likely to back Boston once numbers open. His logic: Brayan Bello (6-5, 3.32 ERA) dominated Minnesota in early May and faces a Twins lineup that ranks 21st in runs and 23rd in batting average while scoring 5-5-2-3-1-3 in its last six. Minnesota has lost three of four, Byron Buxton just hit the IL with a rib issue, the bullpen owns one of MLB’s worst ERAs, and probable starter Zebby Matthews (2-2, 4.97 ERA) may be dealing with late-breaking injury news. Boston’s bullpen sits fourth in MLB with a 3.37 ERA, and even though the Sox’s sticks have cooled (8-4-4-4-2 recently) they’re still fourth in runs scored on the year. Kenny said he “very likely” leans Red Sox given the pitching edge and Twins injuries but will confirm once odds are released.

Eric Lindquist said he plans to attack the Twins’ team total by betting Brayan Bello under 2.5 earned runs on Wednesday. Lindquist expects Minnesota’s lineup to be severely watered-down: Byron Buxton just hit the IL, Carlos Correa is banged up, and trade chatter has Willie Castro and several other bats possibly on the move. Pair that lack of firepower with Bello’s extreme ground-ball profile and Lindquist thinks run prevention comes naturally. He called the current version of the Twins offense 'ridiculous how bad they are right now' and views the under 2.5 ER number as a solid way to fade them.

Even without odds posted, Kenny G stated he will likely back Boston once numbers drop. His edge centers on Minnesota’s mounting issues: the Twins have lost three of four, own a bottom-10 offense on the season (21st runs, 23rd AVG) and just placed Byron Buxton on the IL. Their bullpen sports an ugly 4.60 ERA, and projected starter Zebby Matthews may be scratched or pitching hurt. Boston counters with Brayan Bello (3.32 ERA), a strong bullpen ranked top-4 at 3.37 ERA, and an offense that still sits 4th in runs and 9th in average despite a modest recent stretch. Kenny expects the Sox to be short favorites or small dogs and plans to pounce once books hang a line.

Lonte Smith agreed with the Boston side and added a lean to the full-game over. Bello has been steady, giving up zero to three earned in every start over the last three months, although only two of those outings were on the road. Ober, meanwhile, is a "complete failure" in Lonte’s words, with a 9.00 July ERA. He expects Boston’s lineup to get to Ober early and often, making the live total and Red Sox moneyline both attractive.

Malcom Bamford leaned to Boston around pick ’em if Bailey Ober gets the ball. Ober has a 9.00 ERA across five July starts, routinely putting Minnesota in multi-run holes. While Brayan Bello has allowed exactly three earned in each of his last two, Malcom likes that he generally keeps Boston in every game. With Minnesota’s rotation in flux following the Paddack trade, Malcom prefers the more stable side in the Sox.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Red Sox money line behind Brayan Bello, who has already logged 10 quality starts (just one fewer than all of last season) and has led Boston to wins in four of his last five turns. Minnesota counters with rookie Zebby Matthews, owner of 13 homers allowed and 71 hits in only 55+ innings. With Boston’s deeper, more powerful lineup and Bello’s consistency, the tout expects the visitors to control the series finale.

Guy Boston Sports said the best way to attack Twins–Red Sox is riding Boston’s offense. He still likes the money-line angle he mentioned earlier but shifted his focus to the team-total and full-game OVER because Minnesota is rolling out 25-year-old David Pearson, a surprise call-up with only seven Triple-A outings on his resume. The tout expects nerves to show against a lineup that has averaged ‘four-plus runs basically every night’ since the deadline reshuffle. He added that the Twins rank near the bottom of MLB in run value versus four-seam fastballs—the pitch Lucas Giolito throws 48 percent of the time—so Giolito should buy the Red Sox bats extra plate appearances. With Byron Buxton likely sidelined again and Boston available at anything close to even money, he wants Red Sox ML plus a ladder on their team-total if books hang 4 or lower, projecting 5–6 runs from Boston alone.

Guy Boston Sports likes Boston on the moneyline with Lucas Giolito facing Minnesota’s surprise call-up David Pearson (25-year-old making his MLB debut). Pearson has just seven Triple-A appearances this year; Giolito, meanwhile, owns a 2.10 ERA over his last two road starts and now returns to Fenway. The Twins rank bottom-eight in run value versus four-seam fastballs, the pitch Giolito throws 48 %. Byron Buxton is likely out again, further thinning a lineup that already dropped to 24th in wRC+ this month. If books hang anything close to even money, Guy is firing on Red Sox ML and may ladder their team-total over 4 given the wet Fenway forecast.

Lonte Smith called his shot on Trevor Story to leave the yard against Chris Paddack. He wants to fade Paddack’s ugly recent form—five-plus earned runs in two of his last three starts and six home runs allowed in his last four—and trusts Story’s pull-side power in Fenway. Story homered the last time Smith backed him, and the Red Sox shortstop owns a .556 slugging percentage versus right-handers throwing a fastball/change-up combo like Paddack’s. Smith expects Boston’s lineup to jump on Paddack early and sees Story as the best payout in the home-run market.

Malcom Bamford laid the short price on Boston –110, believing Lucas Giolito’s broader road body of work outweighs two rough showings in Philly and Wrigley. He highlighted the Red Sox’s consistent run support for Giolito, Minnesota’s 7-of-10 skid, and Chris Paddack’s 4.95 ERA (6.07 career mark versus Boston) as key edges. With the Twins offense sputtering and Buxton day-to-day, Bamford expects Boston’s high-octane bats to carry the night while Giolito settles back into his earlier form.

Kenny G leaned to Boston at -120, framing it as a prime get-right opportunity for Lucas Giolito. The right-hander is 6-2 with a 3.97 ERA but was rocked in consecutive outings versus the Cubs and Phillies; Kenny expects regression toward his earlier form against a Twins offense that sits 21st in runs and 22nd in batting average. Minnesota’s pitching issues amplify the edge: they rank 28th in quality starts, their bullpen has been a “mess,” and no starter has been confirmed for this game. Boston’s relief corps offers a safety net with a 3.30 ERA, and while recent run totals (4-4-2-9-1-2) look mediocre, the Sox still rank 5th in runs and 9th in batting average on the season. Market numbers—Red Sox -120, total 8.5—show minimal road tax, and Kenny believes Giolito plus Boston’s stronger pen outweigh Minnesota’s home record (29-22). It’s only a lean, not a marquee pick, but Kenny would side with the Red Sox moneyline given the Twins’ ongoing pitching chaos.

Eric Lindquist said bettors should look to back Lucas Giolito in almost any market Tuesday because the Minnesota lineup is in shambles. With Byron Buxton still out and all three presumptive middle-order lefties—Trevor Larnach, Matt Walner and Cody Clemens—getting pinch-hit for on Monday, Lindquist expects constant late-game substitutions that will sap Minnesota’s run-scoring upside. The Twins are already experimenting with call-ups like Brooks Lee and Mickey Gaspar, another sign the batting order is a ‘huge headache’ right now. Given that context, Lindquist thinks Giolito’s baseline talent is more than enough to justify Boston moneyline exposure or a lean toward Giolito strikeout/outs props despite the game being in hitter-friendly Target Field.

Dylan Rockford went the other way, pricing Minnesota at –130 and laying the –125. He cannot trust Rich Fitz, noting Boston is 0-5 in his road starts, including a loss to the White Sox. Fitz rarely reaches the sixth inning and gives up plenty of traffic (1.38 WHIP). The Twins, by contrast, hit .253 with a 107 wRC+ at Target Field and have an above-average bullpen behind Woods Richardson. Rockford projects enough offense for Minnesota to overcome their recent skid and sees value as long as the moneyline stays south of –135.

Scott Reichel grabbed Boston around +105 because Minnesota looks lost: the Twins just dropped a home set to Washington, have lost five of six, and may put Byron Buxton on the IL after he exited Sunday. Reichel does not trust Simeon Woods Richardson, whose 5.09 xERA suggests regression, while rookie Rich Fitz has been serviceable enough. With Boston clinging to a Wild Card slot and swinging it well versus righties (114 wRC+ since June 1), Reichel thinks they should be the slight favorite and will ride the momentum.

Kenny G labeled Boston +105 in Minnesota his potential “dog of the day.” He is not enamored with either starter—Richard Fitz (4.86 ERA) or Simeon Woods Richardson (4.14 ERA)—but trusts the Red Sox advantages everywhere else. Boston’s bullpen sits top-four in MLB, whereas the Twins pen is a shaky 4.33 ERA. Even in a modest slump (four runs or fewer in four of five), the Red Sox remain a top-10 offense on the season, while Minnesota ranks 21st in runs and 22nd in average. With Fitz unlikely to implode as badly as last time and a premium relief corps behind him, Kenny prefers the road dog despite Boston’s 23-29 away record.