Makinen sided with Chicago +1.5 after the line flipped from Bears –1.5 at open. DraftKings shows 77 % handle and 83 % tickets on Dallas; sides attracting >68 % handle are only 46.7 % ATS the last two seasons. Teams surrendering >6.5 yards per play through two weeks rebound 65 % ATS in Week 3. Chicago is 21-12 SU/ATS versus defenses allowing 27+ PPG since 2015, and Dallas is giving up 30.5 PPG. New Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer’s clubs are 38.7 % ATS when trying to string wins together. Makinen expects a much sharper Bears effort at home.

Everett scooped up the 1.5 with Dallas, siding with Dak Prescott in a game he projects as a high-scoring affair. While acknowledging flaws on both rosters, he prefers the Cowboys’ seasoned quarterback and pass rush over Caleb Williams and a rebuilding Bears defense, making the points feel like free money.

Dabbundo grabbed Dallas +1.5, arguing that the injury-ravaged Bears defense cannot hold up. Chicago is already the league’s worst-graded coverage unit and will be missing top corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon plus linebacker T.J. Edwards, while defensive tackle Grady Jarrett publicly questioned the scheme. By contrast the Cowboys still field Dak Prescott, a decisive edge over Caleb Williams, and own special-teams advantages: kicker Brandon Aubrey has been nails and KaVontae Turpin could feast on a punt unit that surrendered big returns in Week 1. If Williams somehow outduels Prescott, Dabbundo is willing to tip his cap, but the matchup, injury report and quarterback gap made taking the points an easy call.

Giannotto relayed ESPN’s optimism that Ben Johnson’s between-the-numbers passing concepts perfectly complement Caleb Williams, whose accuracy issues have been concentrated on throws outside the numbers. Johnson’s Lions offenses routinely funneled 65% of targets to interior zones, and early returns suggest Chicago will replicate that blueprint. Facing a Dallas secondary missing All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson, the Bears are a trendy +1 home dog, and Giannotto expects the Williams–Johnson pairing to show immediate dividends against a defense that just allowed 334 passing yards in Week 2.

Michael Fiddle advised grabbing Dallas +1 at Chicago before the market flips the Cowboys to road favorites. He cited three major injuries in the Bears secondary—Kyler Gordon (hamstring) still out, Pro-Bowl corner Jaylon Johnson now out indefinitely with a groin issue after logging only one quarter in Week 2, and slot corner Josh Blackwell limited by a hamstring—leaving Chicago thin at every coverage spot. Detroit exploited the same gaps for 51 points, and Fiddle expects Dak Prescott’s passing attack to follow suit in what figures to be a shoot-out. Because the money-line already sits at −105 while the spread is +1 at −110, he called the point-spread the superior value play.