Pete Prisco told bettors to lay the field-goal with the Chargers. With Carson Wentz starting again while J.J. McCarthy heals, Prisco expects Los Angeles' defense to "turn over Wentz a few times." Justin Herbert is coming off "a nice passing game" and, even against Brian Flores' pressure looks, Prisco thinks he'll "make enough plays to win." His 28-23 projection beats the –3 spread.

Peter Dewey recommended betting Justin Herbert OVER 35.5 pass attempts at -113. Herbert has logged 38 and 55 throws in his last two games and has exceeded 38 attempts in four of seven outings overall. Dewey highlighted the Chargers’ makeshift ground game—now leaning on Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal—and expects coach Brandon Staley to keep the ball in Herbert’s hands. Even with Minnesota occasionally stingy through the air, Dewey sees the matchup plus Los Angeles’ run-game issues driving another pass-heavy script as the Chargers chase a 5-3 record.

Peter Dewey advised taking Ladd McConkey 5+ receptions at -174 despite Minnesota ranking second in EPA/Pass. Since Omarion Hampton’s injury forced the Chargers into pass-heavy mode, McConkey has racked up 24 targets and 16 grabs for 167 yards over the last two contests. He has registered at least five receptions in five of seven games and has already been targeted 58 times on the season. Dewey argued the Vikings’ pass defense is more vulnerable than the metrics suggest, reminding bettors that Jalen Hurts carved them up for 326 yards in Week 7. With Los Angeles still leaning on the aerial attack, Dewey believes McConkey’s volume makes the 5-catch threshold highly attainable.

Peter Dewey recommended betting Jordan Addison OVER 55.5 receiving yards at -113. Dewey pointed out that after serving a three-game suspension to open 2025, Addison has reclaimed a massive role, posting 18 catches on 26 targets for 283 yards and a touchdown in only three outings. He has cleared 100 yards in two of those games, including a Week 7 eruption of 9-12-128 with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Dewey noted that Los Angeles sits just 13th in EPA/Pass and sees the number as a "buy-low" spot for a receiver emerging as the clear secondary weapon behind Justin Jefferson. Given Addison’s recent usage and matchup, Dewey believes 55.5 yards is simply mispriced.

Dave Tuley advised grabbing Minnesota +3.5 on Thursday Night Football. The advance number was Chargers ‑3, yet it drifted to ‑3.5 even after Los Angeles was gashed 38-24 by Indianapolis and Minnesota pushed Philadelphia to the wire in a 28-22 loss. Tuley noted prime-time underdogs were 4-1 ATS on TNF heading into Week 8 and believes bettors are overreacting to the short week. He is comfortable with Carson Wentz continuing under center and expects public money to keep forcing cheaper juice on the underdog.

Hennion played Allen OVER 4.5 receptions at -155. He acknowledged the risk of buying after Allen’s 11-catch, 119-yard explosion against Indianapolis but likes the matchup versus a Vikings defense that sits ninth in zone rate (76%). Allen owns a 31% target share versus zone—the highest on the Chargers—and only 16 players in the entire league have seen more zone targets. With Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris sidelined, Los Angeles has leaned heavily on Justin Herbert’s arm (40.7 attempts and 29.3 completions per game over the last three). Hennion also labeled Minnesota’s 12th-ranked DVOA misleading because it came against the league’s sixth-easiest slate of offenses. Allen has reached five catches in all but one game this season, so Hennion expects him to clear 4.5 again.

Nick Hennion bet Jefferson to go OVER 80.5 receiving yards at -115 for Thursday night. He pointed out that Los Angeles plays zone on 79.6% of snaps, the third-highest rate in the league, and Jefferson has shredded zone all year—only six wideouts have accumulated more yards in that coverage while he commands a 21.5% zone target share (second on the team behind Jordan Addison). Hennion added that WR1s are averaging 88.5 yards against the Chargers and cited their recent log—96 to Deebo Samuel, 95 to Jaylen Waddle, 98 to Alec Pierce—as evidence of continued struggles. Jefferson cleared this number in two of his last three and missed by a single yard against Philadelphia, so Hennion expects him to hit it for the third time in four games.

As the third leg of his +650 same-game parlay, Rohit Ponnaiya recommended Under 48.5 receiving yards for Quentin Johnston. Despite Herbert’s 420 passing yards last week, Johnston mustered only 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 targets while Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen soaked up 29 combined looks. Ponnaiya noted Johnston’s value comes on deep shots, but Minnesota’s frequent blitzes force quarterbacks into quick throws and the Vikings have excelled at limiting explosive passes all season. Expecting Johnston to spend the night stretching the field to open space for McConkey and Allen underneath, Ponnaiya projects a ‘quiet night’ that lands well below the posted yardage total.

Rohit Ponnaiya backed Justin Herbert to smash the 253.5-yard passing prop on Thursday Night Football. He pointed to the Chargers’ run game ‘circling the drain’ after Kimani Vidal, Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris combined for only 23 rushing yards on 10 carries in last week’s loss to the Colts. With Los Angeles unable to block in the run game and facing a Minnesota front that just held Philadelphia to 45 yards on 23 rushes, Ponnaiya expects a pass-heavy script similar to Herbert’s 55-attempt, 420-yard outing on Sunday. The Vikings blitz at the second-highest rate in the league, yet Herbert owns the 4th-best PFF grade against the blitz this year (83.9) after finishing 4th in 2024 (87.4). Potential returns for LT Joe Alt and RT Trey Pipkins III could further boost protection, giving Herbert an even higher ceiling. All signs, according to Ponnaiya, point to volume and efficiency converging for 260-plus yards.

Ryan Wooden highlighted Josh Oliver as a +900 anytime-TD dart with sneaky upside. Although he plays behind T.J. Hockenson, Oliver sees nearly 40% of offensive snaps in Kevin O’Connell’s frequent two-tight end sets. At 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, he has already converted two of his seven 2025 targets into scores after notching five TDs on 44 catches over his first two Minnesota seasons. The SportsLine Model projects 0.20 touchdowns (20% probability) while the betting line prices him at just 10%, giving bettors a double-value overlay on a player frequently deployed near the goal line.

Ryan Wooden endorsed Jordan Addison at +180 to hit the anytime-TD market, noting that the SportsLine Projection Model pegs him for 0.43 touchdowns (43% probability) versus the 35.7% break-even rate implied by the odds. Addison has been targeted 26 times in just three games since returning from suspension, producing 18 catches for 283 yards and a score, and he set season highs last week with 12 targets, nine grabs, and 129 yards. With Minnesota expected to lean on the passing game as 3.5-point road underdogs, Wooden believes Addison’s prominent role opposite Justin Jefferson makes him undervalued in the touchdown market.

Ryan Wooden cited the SportsLine Projection Model in backing Keenan Allen to score an anytime touchdown at +145 on DraftKings for Thursday Night Football. The model forecasts Allen for 0.50 TDs—an implied 50% probability—while the betting line suggests only a 40.8% chance, creating a clear edge. Allen has already logged 44 receptions, 435 yards, and four touchdowns through seven games since re-signing with the Chargers and is coming off an 11-catch, 119-yard, one-TD performance against the Colts. With Los Angeles favored by 3.5 points in a 44.5-point total, Wooden views Allen as Justin Herbert’s primary red-zone option and a strong plus-odds target.