Kenny G leaned toward Mets –135 on Sunday Night Baseball even without a confirmed Giants starter. He trusts Kodai Senga’s season-long dominance (7-3, 1.79 ERA) and chalked up last week’s clunker versus the Angels (3 IP, 4 ER) to rust after injury. New York’s bullpen is reliable (3.80 ERA) and the lineup remains potent, ranking 8th in slugging with Juan Soto heating up and Pete Alonso still carrying a .269/.340/.514 slash despite a perceived slump. San Francisco, losers of two straight, has cratered offensively—now 21st in scoring and 26th in average—and must rely on its elite bullpen (3.21 ERA) because the rotation matchup is a mystery. With the Giants just 29-20 to the Under at Oracle Park and the Mets 28-22-1 to the Under on the road, Kenny considered the total of 8 but ultimately prefers backing a surging New York club riding a six-game win streak against a fading Giants roster. He cautioned that a surprise ace announcement could temper confidence, yet labeled the current moneyline “too cheap” given the hitting and starting-pitching gap.

On Sunday Night Baseball Martin leans Mets because Kodai Senga has been lights-out (sub-1.80 ERA, three straight wins) while San Francisco may have to start rookie Carson Seymour. Seymour has only six MLB innings, all in relief, and has already allowed three long balls. Martin highlighted the Mets’ strong splits versus right-handers and calls them the only side he can back in the series finale, although he is unsure it will make his client card.

Calling it his best bet, Drew Martin played the Mets at +100 and labeled it a ‘wrong-team-favored’ scenario. New York has ripped off four straight wins and now holds a half-game edge on Philadelphia in the NL East, so motivation is sky-high. Southpaw David Peterson – a frequent Martin target – has surrendered one earned run or fewer in three consecutive starts and is in peak form. On the other side, Robbie Ray’s overall sub-3.00 ERA masks a downturn: five walks and five earned runs in only four innings last outing, 10 walks over his last three starts, and a 1-3 record in his previous four decisions. Martin also flags an odd scheduling quirk – these clubs meet again in New York next weekend – which could benefit the visitors seeing Ray twice in short order. All told, he wants the hotter lineup and steadier arm at plus money.

Kenny G leaned toward laying the –145 moneyline with San Francisco, citing several matchup edges even though he admitted the price is steeper than he prefers. He trusts the Giants’ elite relief corps, which has been a top-5 unit all season and should backstop Logan Webb if the right-hander runs into more turbulence after three straight shaky outings (3.08 ERA overall). Oracle Park’s run-suppressing environment plus San Francisco’s 28-20 home record and 29-19 clip to the under provide further comfort that this game stays low-scoring and close, favoring the bullpen advantage. Meanwhile New York arrives just 22-28 on the road and middle-of-the-pack at the plate (14th in runs, 21st in average). Clay Holmes owns a 3.48 ERA but was rocked by Cincinnati in his last start and hasn’t faced San Francisco yet, giving the Giants a preparation edge. The Mets’ once-reliable pen has slipped to a 3.84 ERA, and their own heavy under trend away from Citi Field (28-21-1) signals limited cushion if Holmes wobbles again. Although Kenny toyed with a NRFI or an under-7 wager, he ultimately prefers backing the home side outright, arguing the combination of a superior bullpen, strong home splits, and Mets inconsistency justifies paying the modest juice.

B Wade said the 5.5-strikeout line on Logan Webb is too low and took the over. Webb has cleared it in 15-of-21 starts (71%) and is even better at Oracle Park, averaging 6.9 K with an 80% hit rate, missing only twice at home all season. Although the Mets sit in the league’s middle tier for team strikeout rate, nine of their projected hitters own higher K-rates against Webb than against ordinary right-handers—Pete Alonso jumps from 23% to 33%, Francisco Lindor from 21% to 28%, and Jeff McNeil from 14% to 22%. Wade believes the true price should be around −140 to −150 and projects 6–7 punch-outs, making it a core leg in Friday parlays.

Bill Harrelson backed Logan Webb to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts against the Mets. Webb has cashed this number in eight of his last ten starts, including five of the last six, and 15 of his last 20 overall (75%). He punched out eight Mets the last time he faced them (May 2024). After reaching the over just 42% of the time last season, Webb has soared to a 71% clip in 2025 (15 of 21). He’s averaging roughly six innings per outing and has cleared 5.5 Ks in five straight home starts, posting 7.6 strikeouts per game over that stretch. Harrelson noted that bookmakers across the board—DraftKings, FanDuel, Fliff, Caesars—have the over heavily favored, calling it his top play of the day.