Kenny G backed the Mets -1.5 at roughly -110 juice, pointing to a mismatched pitching and hitting landscape. He expects Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60 ERA) to be "generally good" after holding Atlanta to two runs last time out, while Marlins call-up Mouser offers little track record and will hand the ball to a bullpen rocking a 4.21 ERA. Offensively, New York has scored 6-6-13 in its last three, now sitting 10th in MLB runs and 9th in slugging; Miami mustered only five total runs in its Braves series and remains "significantly below average" overall. The Mets are 42-24 at Citi Field, the Marlins just 31-34 on the road. With New York’s pen still "above average" despite late-season hiccups, Kenny sees a clear edge across all phases and is willing to lay the run and a half rather than pay the steep -220 moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended laying the chalk with the Mets to win and cover the spread versus Miami. The Marlins’ momentum evaporated after a surprise Yankees sweep, and they now turn to rookie Mazur, who has only 5.2 MLB innings. New York just swept Philadelphia and sends Holmes (3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) to the mound; at Citi Field he has held hitters to a .217 average across 70.1 IP. Over the last 10 days Miami owns an .225/.296/.368 slash (84 wRC+), while the Mets have torched pitchers with a .319/.404/.546 line (167 wRC+). Should Mazur exit early, Miami must rely on a bullpen that’s posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in that same span. With Jansen Junk also slumping, the tout argued the Mets can’t afford to drop a game they clearly control on paper.

Although –150 is slightly steeper than he’d like, Kenny G still took the Mets because rookie Nolan McLean is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA, having dominated Seattle and tossed seven strong frames in Atlanta (4 H, 2 ER). McLean is backed by a bullpen Kenny rates as clearly superior to Philadelphia’s, which just blew back-to-back games. The Phillies roll out Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44) who has dropped his last two starts and was a reliever the last time he saw New York. Philadelphia’s offense is ninth in runs but inconsistency and a 40-23-4 road UNDER trend dampen upside. The Mets have won four of five, carry a 41-24 home record, and their lineup has scored 6,13,3,9,12 in that stretch while ranking top-10 in every slash metric. Kenny is confident the Mets secure their third straight win.

Eric Lindquist said the Mets should be noticeably heavier favorites than the current minus-110 because of the starting-pitching mismatch. He noted that Taijuan Walker is still living off luck: 324 xwOBA, only a 17.1 % strike-out rate, and an ERA (3.44) that sits almost three-quarters of a run below his 4.13 expected number. Walker’s newfound 30.8 % cutter usage has not solved anything, yielding a .404 xSLG/.453 SLG. By contrast, Lindquist raved about Nolan McLean’s first couple big-league turns—mid-90s heat plus sweeper/sinker/curve, a 32.6 % whiff rate, and a 69 % ground-ball clip that makes him ‘Framber-lite.’ Because McLean both misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground, Lindquist expects Philadelphia’s left-hand core to struggle, giving New York clear value on the full-game moneyline rather than a first-five split. He advised locking the price in early before inevitable Phillies buy-back shows up.

Just A Bet Outside called Sean Manaea a worthwhile strike-out prop play against Philadelphia. The Phillies carry the ninth-highest strike-out rate versus lefties during the last three weeks, nearly matching the Mets’ whiff profile. Manaea has collected 45 strike-outs in only 36.2 innings this season and 15 punch-outs in his most recent 9.2 frames against Seattle and Washington. His road K-rate (32 %) dwarfs his 25 % mark at Citi Field, and his righty/lefty splits are virtually identical, so the matchup projects well regardless of the Phillies’ handedness mix.

Bill Harrelson backed Juan Soto to score higher than 6.5 fantasy points against the Phillies. Soto has cleared that mark in seven of his last ten games and four straight, highlighted by a 34-point explosion versus Atlanta followed by 14-, 11- and 11-point efforts, the last coming in a 13-3 Mets win over Philadelphia. Over his past 20 games he’s 16-for-20 (80 %) and owns a 65 % season-long hit rate across 129 contests. Adding last season brings a 300-game sample with a 63 % success rate. Harrelson also cited Soto’s .333 average and .600 slugging percentage versus Jesus Luzardo, reinforcing the over as a strong bet on Underdog.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to the Mets at –125 and suggested a Braves team-total under. He trusts Clay Holmes, who carries a 2.2 ERA over his last five starts, to rebound from a shaky three-and-two-thirds, five-run outing against Atlanta just 10 days ago. Holmes’ sinker/slider mix normally gives the Braves trouble. On the flip side, Cal Quantrill’s fastball and cutter are pitches the Mets handle well, and he expects New York’s lineup—despite recent lulls—to be superior in a vacuum. As long as the price stays south of –130, he is comfortable paying the freight to back the Mets’ side.

Clay Holmes brings a 3.64 ERA (3.41 on the road) and a 105-53 K/BB ratio into Truist Park, while Cal Quantrill is sitting on a 5.50 ERA and has yielded 20 hits and 15 runs in his last 12 innings. New York’s slumping price of +125 looks generous to Cash Out Sports Picks, who pegs the Mets as the sharper side given the pitching gap and Atlanta’s recent 4-10 skid.

Kenny G leaned to the Mets –125, arguing Clay Holmes is set for a bounce-back after holding Seattle to one run over five frames in his last outing. He acknowledged Holmes was rocked by Atlanta on Aug 12 (5 ER in 3.2 IP) but noted the Braves’ lineup is currently 17th in runs and 18th in batting average while dealing with injuries. Opposing starter Cal Quantrill owns a 4-10 record and 5.50 ERA and was blasted by Boston in his last start. Kenny also flagged Atlanta’s 32-31 home record and mediocre bullpen metrics since July (4.52 ERA). With the Mets offense coming off a 12-run breakout and still clinging to the final Wild Card spot, he sees New York as the sharper side even if it remains only a ‘lean.’

Just A Bet Outside said Jeff McNeil is one of the three hitters he is targeting on Thursday because MacKenzie Gore has been getting lit up. Gore has coughed up a .306 opponent batting average in August and has already had multiple blow-up outings that the tout compared to batting practice. The Nationals bullpen behind Gore is "bad," further boosting late-inning upside. McNeil "has absolutely owned him" in prior matchups, so the tout expects the Mets infielder to stay hot and recommends betting McNeil hitter props or plugging him into DFS builds.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking Jeff McNeil hit, H+R+RBI, or total-bases props against MacKenzie Gore. McNeil is swinging it at a .360 clip over the last seven days and .302 in August, with hits in eight of ten games and two-plus total bases in six. He actually fares better versus lefties (.302) and is an eye-popping 8-for-12 lifetime off Gore. Despite two solid outings, Gore is surrendering a .306 average in August and hands games to a poor Nationals bullpen. The tout expects McNeil’s ownership of this matchup to continue and sees value in 1-plus hit or multi-base escalators.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Jeff McNeil as a value DFS bat because of his extreme success against MacKenzie Gore. McNeil is 8-for-12 lifetime versus the Nationals’ left-hander, and Stephen placed him atop Thursday’s ‘good hitter matchups’ list. That .667 batting average plus Gore’s willingness to stay in the strike zone give McNeil a strong floor for hits, runs and RBI production at what should be a modest salary on the main slate.

Just A Bet Outside said Sean Manaea’s strikeout prop is worth attacking on Thursday. Washington owns the fifth-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (24.2%), and Manaea has punched out more than a batter per inning with at least five strikeouts in five of his seven starts this season. Stephen added that Manaea’s strikeout rate actually climbs to 30.2% on the road and that most of the Nationals’ projected lineup swings from the right side, where Manaea’s whiff rate is slightly stronger. All of that pushes him toward the over on Manaea’s strikeout line.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Kodai Senga under 5.5 strikeouts. Senga has cashed this under in four of his last five starts, seven of his last ten (70 %), and six of his last seven overall. Across a 22-game sample dating back to last year, he has stayed below six punch-outs 68 % of the time. Harrelson emphasized that the Nationals are one of the league’s toughest offenses to strike out, and Senga has already come in under this line in both previous 2025 meetings with Washington. Given the contact-heavy matchup and Senga’s recent trend, Harrelson believes the under is the profitable side.

Kenny G said the full-game under 9 runs is his preferred way to attack Mets–Nationals. Peterson owns a 3.30 ERA on the season and already spun a complete-game shut-out of Washington in mid-June. The southpaw now faces a Nationals lineup that sits 20th in runs and has produced just 9, 2, 2, 3, 8 and 5 runs its last six games. Washington’s bullpen owns the worst ERA in MLB, but the Mets’ sticks are equally volatile (14th in runs, 19th in average), scoring 9-3-7 versus Seattle but struggling most of the year. Citi Field totals aside, both clubs trend under on the road/at home (NYM 31-25-3 to the under away; WSH 32-28-2 to the under at home). Kenny concluded the matchup of an in-form Peterson against a light Nationals order plus two shaky offenses makes the under far more attractive than laying –205 on New York.

Just A Bet Outside urged bettors to take the Mets first-five team total over 2.5 runs at ‑125 on DraftKings. He noted New York has averaged 6.4 runs over its last five games (5.3 over its last ten) and, in the past three weeks versus right-handed pitching, ranks 7th in WRC+, 9th in slugging, 10th in ISO, and 6th in walk rate. The target is Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, whose opponents have scored at least three runs in the first five innings in seven of his last nine starts. Elder has already surrendered 18 homers and issued 10 walks in his last four outings, metrics the tout believes set up multiple early long balls from a frustrated but still productive Mets lineup.

Stephen flagged Pete Alonso as a priority DFS bat against Bryce Elder. Alonso is 3-for-8 lifetime off Elder and has already taken him deep once. The tout piled on by later calling Elder "not a major-league starting pitcher," highlighting the right-hander’s 2.01 HR/9, low strikeout rate, and six straight outings of four or more earned runs prior to his last appearance. With Elder’s sinker getting pummeled and Kodai Senga still on a pitch count, Stephen expects Atlanta–New York to turn into a bullpen game early, giving Alonso multiple cracks at weak relief arms. All of that creates multi-homer upside at a likely suppressed salary because of the Mets’ recent struggles.

Chris Ruffolo said to lay the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings because Bryce Elder has been, in his words, "one of the worst pitchers in the MLB all season long." Ruffolo noted New York already knocked the Braves around in the first two games of the series and expects that momentum to carry over while Elder is on the mound, making the Mets a profitable early-game target.

Kenny G recommended backing the New York Mets at -190 even though he admits the number is rich. His confidence stems from Bryce Elder’s 6.12 ERA and the fact the right-hander was torched for five earned runs by Miami in his last outing. Atlanta’s bullpen (4.01 ERA) and dreadful 20-38 road record further push Kenny away from the visitors. On the other side, Kodai Senga owns a 2.30 ERA and the Mets are 39-21 at Citi Field. Kenny also pointed out New York’s desperation—they are clinging to a one-game Wild Card lead—while Atlanta has little to play for and has dropped nine of its last ten. Even with the Mets’ offense scuffling, Kenny trusts the superior starter, home-field splits, and motivation edge enough to lay the juice on the moneyline.

Lindquist nearly made the Mets –1.5 his only official ‘like’ because the market is still hanging plus money even with Kodai Senga facing a “broken” Bryce Elder. Senga’s ghost-fork and above-average whiff profile give New York a clear mound edge, while Elder owns a 0.492 expected slugging and 0.297 expected batting average against, bottom-15th-percentile fast-ball velocity, and bottom-10th-percentile spin— all reasons Lindquist said he ‘doesn’t understand why Elder is in the big leagues.’ The only factor keeping it from full-unit status was potential bullpen usage after Wednesday’s rain-soaked double duty, but Lindquist still recommended grabbing the plus-money run-line before the market corrects.

Jordan also likes Juan Soto from the left side versus Bryce Elder (.267 average allowed to lefties). Soto is 2-for-3 against Elder with a homer, carries a .262 mark versus right-handers, and has 4 homers in the past week (including one tonight). Outlier assigns a 72 % hit probability, 44 % for 2+ total bases, 60 % for 2+ H/R/RBI, and a 20 % chance to leave the yard. Jordan views him as a boom-bust HR play but is comfortable taking the simple hit prop in parlays.

Jordan wants shares of Pete Alonso against Braves righty Bryce Elder, who is getting shelled by right-handed hitters (.306 average) and has a .301 BAA over the past month. Alonso is 3-for-8 off Elder (single, double, HR) and is fresh off a two-hit night that pushed his weekly line to .286 with 3 homers and 5 RBI in five games. Outlier gives him an 81 % chance for a hit, 58 % for 2+ total bases, 76 % for the combo, and a 30 % homer probability. Jordan suggests combining a total-base prop with a long-shot HR ticket.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the New York Mets money-line, calling this a must-win divisional spot. He argued Atlanta looks vulnerable, unable to string together complete performances, and that Citi Field gives the Mets the edge they need to stay relevant. While Carlos Carrasco starts for the Braves, New York’s urgency and Atlanta’s recent inconsistency outweighed that pitching matchup in his model, making the Mets the side to trust Wednesday night.

After breaking down the projected pitching matchups, Chris Ruffolo predicted the Mets will take the three-game set two games to one. He pointed out that Atlanta’s best chance comes in the opener with Spencer Strider, but the remaining games line up in New York’s favor: Carlos Carrasco versus David Peterson on Wednesday and Kodai Senga facing Bryce Elder on Thursday. Ruffolo trusts those matchups to tilt run prevention toward the Mets, especially with Atlanta’s 21-37 road record and bullpen inconsistencies. Bettors looking at series prices, he said, should ride New York to win the set while accepting the risk that Atlanta steals only game one.

Lindquist likes Francisco Lindor over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs versus Spencer Strider. While Strider’s strikeout ceiling is scary, Lindquist notes the Mets’ shortstop still owns a .368 xwOBA in 31 career PAs off the right-hander and Atlanta’s bullpen is far thinner post-deadline (23rd in ERA, 28th in WHIP since July 15). Lindor has reached base multiple times in seven of his last ten and enjoys the running game if he walks. A projected eight-run total and Lindor’s locked-in two-spot give him a crack at five plate appearances; Lindquist expects one extra-base hit or swipe plus post-Strider RBI opportunity to get the combo home.

Bill Harrelson said he is fading Kodai Senga’s run prevention, recommending the more-than 2.5 earned-runs prop for Friday’s start against Oakland. Senga has allowed 3+ earned runs in 8 of his last 10 outings and 12 of his last 20. During that ten-game window he is averaging only five innings and 3.6 earned runs while grading in the bottom 25th percentile of MLB starters by Harrelson’s model. Oakland, meanwhile, ranks top-10 in team batting average over the past 30 games, making this a tougher matchup than casual bettors realize. Harrelson also noted that Fliff and DraftKings already have the over juiced, signaling market agreement that the 2.5 line is soft. He expects at least three runs surrendered and views the prop as one of his strongest plays of the slate.

Eric Pathy advised taking the New York Mets at +115 on the overnight line in Milwaukee. He expects the Brewers’ six-game winning streak to stall after a travel day, a spot he calls a “freeze” for hot teams. Pathy added that Milwaukee has only been profitable this season when listed as an underdog (26-26 as a dog) and is roughly break-even when favored, so tonight’s favorite role sets up poorly for them. With the market still riding Milwaukee’s recent run, Pathy sees value in fading the streak and grabbing the Mets at plus money.

Lindquist prefers taking a shot on a Pete Alonso home-run prop rather than the Mets –1.5 line Monday. The matchup is against rookie right-hander Slade Cecconi (mis-pronounced Chaconi) whose limited MLB sample shows below-average strike-out ability and a fly-ball profile—traits that play into Alonso’s pull-side power. Lindquist noted he makes Alonso’s true odds closer to +290 and therefore will only fire if books hang +320 or longer, calling that price the tipping point where Alonso’s expected value edges out the alternative of betting the Mets’ run line.

Mark recommended the Mets -1.5 at +140. He likes the momentum New York has generated over the past week and trusts Frankie Montas (3-1) far more than San Francisco call-up Carson Whisenhunt, who sports a 7.28 ERA. He cashed a similar lean on the Mets the previous night and sees another plus-money opportunity to ‘stack units’ against an unproven arm.

Jay Yang highlighted Pete Alonso as a strong DFS/prop target against Giants left-hander Carson Wisenhunt. The Mets collectively hit .280 with an OPS around .800 versus southpaws, and Yang expects Wisenhunt’s low-90s fastball/changeup mix to fool the lineup only once through the order. He said Alonso and Francisco Lindor should "take care of" Wisenhunt, projecting 2–3 early runs in the first four to five innings. Yang’s takeaway: lock Alonso into DFS line-ups or look to his total-bases/home-run props while the market still treats Wisenhunt like a competent big-league arm.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Mets on the moneyline. Their case hinged on David Peterson’s 1.91 ERA across 61.1 home innings, a 2.83 season-long ERA, and the belief he thrives off the Citi Field crowd. They contrasted that with Robbie Ray’s strong 2.93 ERA/1.14 WHIP that still has not produced wins because San Francisco’s offense and defense have cratered in the second half. The tout highlighted New York’s 3-0 sweep of the Giants earlier this season after the Mets bolstered the lineup at the deadline, giving them a 6-4 edge in the last 10 head-to-heads (3-2 in New York). With the Giants’ playoff hopes fading and the Mets entering as “heavy favorites” due to newfound depth, they projected New York to “pull away and cruise to a win without much drama,” making the Mets ML the preferred side bet.

Just A Bet Outside laid a one-unit wager on the Mets moneyline at ‑140, citing a perfect 10-0 team record in David Peterson’s home starts. Peterson owns a 1.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.4 % walk rate and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of those ten outings while holding left-handed hitters to a .170 average at Citi Field. On the other side, Robbie Ray carries a 3.40 road ERA and just logged five hits, two earned runs, three walks and three strikeouts against this same patient Mets lineup. Ray rarely works deep, which pushes a depleted Giants bullpen – weakened by deadline trades of Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers – into high-leverage innings. Meanwhile the Mets added Ryan Helsley and the very same Tyler Rogers, transforming their relief corps into a consensus top-five unit. New York’s 37-16 home record contrasts sharply with San Francisco’s 26-29 road mark and current six-game skid (2-8 last ten). With both offenses middling versus lefties, the tout expects Peterson to keep the Giants quiet early and New York’s reinforced pen to slam the door late.

Kenny G said the best angle in Giants-Mets is a No-Run-First-Inning wager. His reasoning: David Peterson owns a 2.83 ERA and just held San Francisco to one earned over six frames five days ago; that game stayed scoreless through the first three innings. Opposing starter Kyle Harrison (noted but unnamed in clip) likewise opened that matchup clean and has allowed only one first-inning run in his last six starts. Citi Field has been an under park all season — the Mets are 26-24-3 to the under at home — and tonight’s total is just 7.5, signaling bookmakers also expect a slow start. With the Giants only 26-29 on the road and the Mets’ MLB-best 37-16 home mark, Kenny expects both managers to approach the opener cautiously, making a 0-0 first inning the sharpest bet on the board.

Kenny G is going right back to New York at –125 because he cannot stomach Yu Darvish’s current form: 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA, including eight earned in 3.1 innings versus St. Louis last week, and only one Padres win in his five starts. Clay Holmes hasn’t been dominant (3.40 ERA, no truly sharp outings in five starts), but Kenny trusts the Mets’ respectable 3.72 bullpen ERA and their ability to scratch out a few against Darvish before San Diego’s elite pen can take over. Both clubs lean under on their respective home/road splits, so Kenny expects a tight, low-scoring affair that tilts New York’s way simply because Darvish can’t keep the ball in the yard right now.

Kenny G is going back to the Mets at –125, primarily because he cannot stomach backing Yu Darvish in his current form. Darvish is 0-3 with a ghastly 9.18 ERA and was torched for eight earned over 3.1 innings by St. Louis in his last outing; San Diego has won just one of his five starts. The Padres’ bullpen is elite, but Kenny doubts they will inherit anything but trouble. New York counters with Clay Holmes (3.40 ERA), whose recent five-start run has been more steady than spectacular but far better than Darvish’s blow-ups. Both teams skew heavily to the under on their respective home/road splits (Mets 29-23-2 under on the road; Padres 29-20-1 under at home), yet Kenny passed on the 8.5 total because Darvish could implode again. Instead, he prefers laying the small road price with a steadier arm and a Mets bullpen that owns a serviceable 3.72 ERA.

Malcom Bamford laid the short –125 with New York, continuing his stance that You Darvish is unbettable until he proves the second-half resurgence people keep predicting. Darvish’s strike-out rate has fallen to 20.7% and he owns a 1.45 WHIP over his last five turns. The Mets carry a 121 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in July and have won seven of their last nine despite Tuesday’s slip-up. Clay Holmes has been volatile in July (4.38 ERA) but still sports a 2.98 road ERA and a 55% ground-ball rate overall. Bamford expects New York’s bats to pressure Darvish early, forcing Bob Melvin to the now-taxed Padres bullpen by the fifth. With San Diego just 4-8 in Darvish’s starts this season, he feels the Mets remain undervalued.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz made the Mets his favorite play, simply fading Yu Darvish. Since returning from the IL, Darvish owns a gruesome 9+ ERA and was tagged for eight earned runs in his most recent start. San Diego already claimed the first two games of the set, and Brad doesn’t believe New York will get swept. With Darvish in meltdown mode, Brad expects the Mets’ lineup to break through early and never look back.

Guy Boston Sports leaned Mets moneyline at any pick-em price and paired it with the full-game OVER. His case: Ryan Berger relies on a fastball/slider combo, and New York ranks ninth against heaters over the last 30 days while scoring 3-7-3-6-8-2-5 runs in its past seven. Manaea has looked sharp in limited action, but San Diego grades as one of MLB’s best lineups versus lefties, so he doubts a clean shutdown. The Mets average 4.4 runs on the road compared with San Diego’s 4.18 at Petco, giving New York the consistency edge against the Padres’ wildly volatile outputs (nine runs one night, zero the next). He projects a 4-4 type game that New York wins late, recommending Mets ML and an OVER 8 if it appears.

Just A Bet Outside suggested taking the Mets behind Sean Manaea if Yu Darvish indeed gets the ball for San Diego. Manaea has allowed exactly one earned run in all three of his 2024 starts and stretched to 82 pitches last time out, signaling he is ready for a full workload. Darvish, on the other hand, was blasted for eight hits and eight earned in just 3.1 innings at St. Louis and owns a 7.71 ERA through four appearances, giving up 2.2 HR/9. Steven thinks the Padres will be cautious with Darvish’s pitch count, opening the door to their mediocre middle relief. He likes the Mets money-line and would consider Manaea outs-recorded props, projecting 5–6 strong innings from the left-hander against a San Diego lineup striking out 26% versus southpaws this month.

Drew Martin laid the modest –115 with the Mets because their current run of form and pitching matchup both grade out as clear advantages. New York entered the series riding a seven-game winning streak (could be 8-0 depending on Monday’s late result) and hands the ball to Sean Manaea, who is stretching out after an IL stint: 3 IP, 4 IP, and 5 IP in his three starts with 18 strikeouts against just one earned run in 12 total innings. The Met lineup mashes right-handed pitching and now faces 25-year-old rookie Brandon Berger, whose Triple-A line is shaky (0-2, 4+ ERA, 49 H in 44 IP). Martin argued that the line should be steeper given New York is nearly 20 games above .500 while San Diego turns to an unproven arm, making the Mets the betting side.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford’s Mets moneyline pick—he even has a Mets World Series futures ticket—and added a preference for the over 7.5. The Amazins have won seven straight while slugging, and he expects them to handle a diminished Darvish whose swing-and-miss stuff is down. Manaea has limited opponents to one run in all three rehab starts but may be capped at five innings, bringing New York’s still-shaky middle relief into play. If San Diego can scratch three or four off the pen, Smith sees the total sailing north of eight with the Mets doing most of the damage.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed the Mets at –125 because every current form angle points their way. New York brings a seven-game winning streak and a rejuvenated rotation: Sean Manaea has allowed exactly one earned run in each of three starts since returning from the IL and increased his workload to five innings last time out. The lineup is humming—Ronny Mauricio went 4-for-4 Sunday—and the bullpen just added hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto. On the other side, Yu Darvish is coming off his worst outing in four and has yet to show the whiff rate that normally buoys his profile. Until Darvish proves he’s right, Bamford said he’ll keep fading him and projects the Mets to win a comfortable 5-3 type game.

Kenny G laid the short price with New York at -125, labeling the matchup a dream spot to fade Yu Darvish. Since returning from injury the veteran righty is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA and was lit up by St. Louis his last time out. Rookie Sean Manaea, meanwhile, has a sparkling 2.19 ERA across two starts, blanking both Cincinnati and the Angels while working five efficient innings each time. The Mets bullpen (3.74 ERA) is solid enough to bridge to Edwin Diaz, and their offense has quietly surged during a recent win streak despite disappointing full-season ranks (20th average, 15th runs). San Diego’s relief unit is elite but wasted behind a lineup that sits 25th in both runs and slugging, relying too heavily on Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Kenny skipped the under 8.5 because Darvish could single-handedly blow it up, instead projecting a “comfortable” New York victory fueled by a clear starting-pitching edge and better recent form at the plate.

Eric Lindquist wants a piece of Pete Alonso’s home-run market if San Diego turns Tuesday into a Ryan Bergert bullpen game. Lindquist projects Alonso’s fair odds at +285 but expects sportsbooks to hang something closer to +300 because Bergert is still classified as a reliever with limited big-league data. Lindquist is fading that small sample, anticipating negative regression for Bergert (or any other low-leverage arm the Padres might promote) and sees line value on both an anytime-HR ticket and 2+ total bases for Alonso—provided San Diego confirms Bergert as the opener.

Scott Reichel is taking the Mets around +120 because he refuses to ‘lay it with Dylan Cease.’ Reichel argues Cease’s 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP do not warrant a favorite tag, especially against a Mets club that owns a top-five OPS since the All-Star break. Frankie Montas has been inconsistent, but his 4.45 ERA is nearly identical to Cease’s and he faces a Padres lineup that just snapped a lengthy slump. Reichel added the Sunday-night-baseball fade angle—San Diego had the extra travel—and believes the game is closer to a coin flip; therefore any price north of +110 on New York is worth a stab.

Kenny G leaned toward Mets –135 on Sunday Night Baseball even without a confirmed Giants starter. He trusts Kodai Senga’s season-long dominance (7-3, 1.79 ERA) and chalked up last week’s clunker versus the Angels (3 IP, 4 ER) to rust after injury. New York’s bullpen is reliable (3.80 ERA) and the lineup remains potent, ranking 8th in slugging with Juan Soto heating up and Pete Alonso still carrying a .269/.340/.514 slash despite a perceived slump. San Francisco, losers of two straight, has cratered offensively—now 21st in scoring and 26th in average—and must rely on its elite bullpen (3.21 ERA) because the rotation matchup is a mystery. With the Giants just 29-20 to the Under at Oracle Park and the Mets 28-22-1 to the Under on the road, Kenny considered the total of 8 but ultimately prefers backing a surging New York club riding a six-game win streak against a fading Giants roster. He cautioned that a surprise ace announcement could temper confidence, yet labeled the current moneyline “too cheap” given the hitting and starting-pitching gap.

On Sunday Night Baseball Martin leans Mets because Kodai Senga has been lights-out (sub-1.80 ERA, three straight wins) while San Francisco may have to start rookie Carson Seymour. Seymour has only six MLB innings, all in relief, and has already allowed three long balls. Martin highlighted the Mets’ strong splits versus right-handers and calls them the only side he can back in the series finale, although he is unsure it will make his client card.

Lonte Smith recommended betting the Mets at the current –105 price despite wanting a plus sign. He cited David Peterson’s three straight quality starts since a rough mid-June stretch—just two earned runs allowed in that span—and a season ERA trimmed to 2.90. Conversely, Robbie Ray has issued 10 walks in his last three outings and surrendered nine homers over his past seven starts, culminating in what Smith called ‘possibly his worst start of the year’ in Toronto. With New York swinging the bats well and Ray trending toward a homer-prone regression, Smith believes the Mets should be slight favorites and sees clear value backing Peterson in current form.

Calling it his best bet, Drew Martin played the Mets at +100 and labeled it a ‘wrong-team-favored’ scenario. New York has ripped off four straight wins and now holds a half-game edge on Philadelphia in the NL East, so motivation is sky-high. Southpaw David Peterson – a frequent Martin target – has surrendered one earned run or fewer in three consecutive starts and is in peak form. On the other side, Robbie Ray’s overall sub-3.00 ERA masks a downturn: five walks and five earned runs in only four innings last outing, 10 walks over his last three starts, and a 1-3 record in his previous four decisions. Martin also flags an odd scheduling quirk – these clubs meet again in New York next weekend – which could benefit the visitors seeing Ray twice in short order. All told, he wants the hotter lineup and steadier arm at plus money.

Scott Reichel targeted the first-five run line on the Mets, pricing New York around –190 full game and preferring the –0.5 (or even –1.5) in the opening five frames. Sean Manaea has given the Mets 11 solid innings since rejoining the rotation, allowing one earned run in each start while posting a 12/3 K-BB ratio. Reichel expects manager Carlos Mendoza to let him stretch to five after back-to-back four-inning stints. The matchup is ideal: the Angels sit bottom-five in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Tuesday projects as a bullpen day for L.A., whose relief corps owns the third-worst ERA in baseball. He also noted the emotional jolt of Monday’s comeback win and Citi Field’s strong home-field splits (Mets well over .500 at home). With New York’s lineup finally showing life and L.A.’s arms in disarray, Reichel sees the Mets jumping out early and cashing the first-five run line before either bullpen becomes a factor.

Malcolm Bamford targeted Francisco Lindor to go deep against Kyle Hendricks in Tuesday’s Mets–Angels clash. Bamford’s logic is simple: fade Hendricks, whose 4.88 season ERA balloons to 5.40 on the road and who has yielded 10 earned runs and four homers across his last three outings. Earlier in the show he highlighted Hendricks’ inability to miss bats as the catalyst behind his Over 9.5 ticket on this same matchup. With Pete Alonso questionable after missing a few games, Bamford pivots to Lindor’s switch-hitting power and 43% hard-hit rate versus right-handers. Citi Field is expected to have light, hitter-friendly winds, giving Lindor an extra bump in home-run-prop markets that were still hanging north of +450 at recording time.