Cash Out Sports Picks advised playing the full-game under, noting all five recent meetings have finished below the number with only 16 combined runs in the last three. Chicago has not topped three runs in any of those games and still sits last in MLB batting average. The Mets’ league-best pitching staff should keep it that way, and Canning has a career 1.89 ERA versus the Sox. Chicago starter Shane Burke just stifled Texas for one run in six frames, adding another arm capable of suppressing scoring. With both clubs trending under (Mets pitching, White Sox inept offense) and Citi Field weather expected to be neutral, he projected a 4-2 type of contest that stays comfortably beneath the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the safest play is laying the run-line with New York. He reminded listeners the Mets have taken five of the last six meetings while limiting Chicago to three runs or fewer in four of those contests. The White Sox are a disastrous 19-79 on the road the past two seasons and have dropped 80.8 % of away games this year. Chicago’s bats rank dead last in batting average and the defense has coughed up 41 errors, 28th in MLB. Conversely, New York’s staff sits No. 1 in ERA (2.82) and Griffin Canning owns a sparkling 2.88 ERA overall that improves to 2.66 with a .195 average against at Citi Field. Meanwhile Shane Smith has a tidy 2.40 ERA, but the Sox have lost six of his last seven starts because they cannot score for him. With the Mets offense sitting top-10 in OPS and homers and a bullpen that has protected every late lead this week, the tout expects New York to win comfortably and cash the favorite run-line.

Kenny G called the Mets a worthy "lock of the day" at –250. He trusts Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.88 ERA) to rebound after an uncharacteristically short, wild outing against the Dodgers, noting that Canning blanked Washington the last time he faced a weak offense. The Mets back him with MLB’s third-best bullpen (2.81 ERA) and a lineup that sits 7th in OBP and top-10 in slugging. On the flip side, Chicago counters with Shane Smith, where the White Sox have gone 0-5 in his last five starts despite a 2.36 ERA. Kenny hammered home how bad the support is: White Sox bullpen 4.60 ERA (bottom-eight), offense 26th in runs, 29th in average, 29th in slugging, plus a miserable 5-22 road record. He added that even if Smith deals early, New York will eventually pounce on the shaky pen. All that makes the Mets’ heavy moneyline price justifiable for bettors willing to lay the chalk.

Chris Prince said Juan Soto is the premier buy-low bat on the slate because salary has cratered to "near 5K" on DraftKings even though his underlying skills never left. Soto owns a .400 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past month, evidence the swing is already coming around. Tuesday he faces White Sox rookie Jonathan Cannon, a low-strikeout (17.7% K-rate) arm allowing 50% hard contact to lefties. Prince expects that combination of discounted price, improving form, and a pitcher who cannot miss bats to unlock Soto’s ceiling for DFS tournaments.

Malcolm Bamford locked in the first-five under, leaning on two starting pitchers whose profiles fit the bet. Shane Smith sports a 2.10 road ERA through five away outings and has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six overall. Tyler McGill is still capped around five innings, but Citi Field is where he excels and he draws a White Sox lineup ranked bottom-five in wRC+ versus right-handers. Supporting data backs the under: Chicago is 23-14-2 first-five under against righties, while the Mets are even better at 28-10-1. Bamford expects both offenses to stay quiet early, envisioning a 1-1 or 2-0 scoreboard through five.

Kingpin Sports laid ‑1.5 with the Mets, stating their offense “should bounce early” in support of Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.56). With Jared Cannon’s 2-5 record/3.76 ERA on the other side, they see New York building a margin before the bullpens take over.

Matt Perrault backed the Mets on the moneyline largely because of Tylor Megill’s dominant home splits and the White Sox’s dreadful overall form. Megill owns a 1.86 ERA at Citi Field this season with opponents batting just .216 and only four earned runs allowed in 19.1 innings. Chicago counters with rookie Jonathan Cannon, who has a 4.76 ERA on the road and a 1–5 record in away starts while surrendering six homers and 21 earned runs in 39.2 innings. Perrault also pointed out Chicago’s 5-22 record, calling them one of the league’s softest road opponents. All of that rolled into a simple recommendation: play the Mets straight up as the first leg of his three-team parlay.

Kenny G advised laying the hefty –270 with the Mets, calling it a potential “lock of the day” if the price doesn’t balloon much higher. He pointed to Tylor Megill’s bounce-back form—4.2 scoreless innings with 10 K versus Boston and a season-long 3.56 ERA—plus the fact that his only rough patch came against the Cardinals, Cubs and Yankees, three lineups far scarier than Chicago’s. New York backs him with a top-three bullpen ERA and a 20-6 record at Citi Field, best home mark in MLB. Offensively the Mets are only 13th in runs but rank 7th in OBP and 10th in SLG, numbers he expects to play up against a White Sox lineup that has produced just two runs in the series opener and is buried near the bottom of every offensive category. Because Chicago’s own pen is shaky and Jonathan Cannon is unlikely to repeat Monday’s success, Kenny is comfortable swallowing the big price rather than messing with totals or alternatives.

Eric Lindquist said he expects Tylor Megill to clear the strikeout prop once it opens, projecting at least 7 Ks against the White Sox. Lindquist noted that Chicago’s batting order remains one of the highest-whiff lineups in baseball, and he routinely grades Megill as an "over" candidate because his fastball/slider combo generates swings and misses when he’s ahead in the count. Lindquist anticipates books hanging 6.5 strikeouts juiced to the over (around ‑150) and believes that still undervalues Megill, who has topped that number in three of his past four starts and owns a 27% strikeout rate on the season. He will confirm the wager once lineups post, but Megill’s matchup and recent form make him a likely add to his betting card.

Although the Mets’ bats look scary on paper, Cash Out Sports Picks prefers the full-game UNDER. Vegas totals have been inflated because of name value, but six of New York’s last seven have still cashed under tickets. Tylor Megill’s strike-out-heavy form (10 K in 4.2 IP last start) pairs with Shane Smith’s respectable 2.36 ERA to create a pitching-driven matchup. The tout notes that public money will again flood the over, opening value on the opposite side.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Tylor Megill as another plus K target. The White Sox strike out at the 12th-highest clip versus right-handers (21.1%). Megill has 66 punch-outs in just 48 innings, clearing six strikeouts in five of his last six turns and recording double-digit Ks twice, including 10 last time out. His K-rate spikes to 32.2% at Citi Field and he demolishes lefty bats (36% K-rate), a profile that matches Chicago’s left-leaning order. Over 5.5 Ks is squarely in play.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out why the Mets should be trusted on the run-line Tuesday. New York is 33-21 and chasing first place in the NL East, while the White Sox limp in at 17-37. Chicago sends rookie right-hander Shane Smith—now 0-5 in his last five turns and fresh off surrendering three earned to Seattle—to the hill. The Mets counter with Tylor Megill, who just struck out 10 Red Sox in 4.2 innings. Add a top-of-the-order trio of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto and the tout believes Monday’s narrow 2-1 win was the Sox’ best shot. With the talent gap and pitching edge, he expects New York to win comfortably and cover the run line.

Razzle pushed Clay Holmes into his top three given –310 money-line support and a cupcake White Sox lineup. The 5.5 K-prop is light, yet Holmes hasn’t topped five strikeouts since April 20, hinting his ceiling is volume driven. Razzle warned Holmes has already surrendered five HRs in his last three starts and could hit a conditioning wall because he is new to starter workloads, but overall matchup safety outweighs that risk for DFS cash builds.

Although Toronto rarely whiffs, Razzle slotted Jacob deGrom as his No. 2–3 overall arm. Vegas posted a slate-low 7.0 total, a 6.5 K-prop (light under juice) and +150 win odds, signaling a pitchers’ duel. Razzle reminded listeners deGrom is "matchup-proof" and projects 100-plus pitches with elite ratios. He prefers Crochet for raw point-per-dollar ceiling but considers deGrom a premium tournament pivot given his stability and ability to break a slate even in lower-strikeout environments.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned to the under, noting that only 41.7% of White Sox non-league games and 44.4% of Mets interleague games have gone over. New York’s pitching staff owns a low team ERA, and Chicago’s lineup has struggled versus right-handers. With Citi Field’s early-season weather and two capable starters, the tout projected limited scoring opportunities for both clubs.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Mets to win and cover the run line against the White Sox. New York has captured five of its last six at Citi Field and mashes right-handed pitching, while Chicago has dropped four straight on the road. Adrian Houser has yielded six runs in his last three appearances versus the Mets, and the Chicago bullpen is bottom-tier. Clay Holmes counters with a bullpen that ranks third in MLB ERA, giving New York a massive late-inning edge. The handicapper doubts the Sox can keep pace offensively or on the mound.

Scott Reichel made the White Sox–Mets under 8.5 his lock of the card. He trusts Adrian Houser, who threw six shutout innings in his Chicago debut, to neutralize a Mets lineup that ranks bottom-five in slugging and is likely flat after playing Sunday-night baseball and returning for a 4 p.m. Memorial Day first pitch. On the other side, converted reliever Christian Holmes carries a 3.13 ERA, has allowed fewer than three earned in two of his last three outings, and now faces a White Sox offense that averages only 2.88 runs on the road. Reichel projects limited length from both starters but still leans under thanks to two below-average lineups, cooler early-evening temperatures, and Citi Field’s pitcher-friendly dimensions, forecasting something like 4-2 and calling first-five under 4.5 a viable secondary play.

Lindquist recommended UNDER 5 runs for the first five innings at –130 (BetMGM). He noted Adrian Houser’s White Sox debut went six scoreless frames with just two hits, and wind is again projected to blow in at Citi Field, suppressing early offense. Although Houser’s larger sample is shaky, the Mets counter with right-hander Clay Holmes (311 xwOBA, .235 xBA) who Lindquist believes can dominate Chicago’s strikeout-prone lineup. Because both clubs have bottom-tier offenses and there’s a valuable half-run hook compared to the more common 4.5, he views the F5 under as the sharp side despite paying a bit of extra juice.

Peterson took Under 8.5 runs (projected 7.6). He cited Adrian Houser’s six–inning scoreless debut for Chicago and a Mets matchup versus a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in scoring (3.3 R/G, just 2.9 on the road). On the other side, Clay Holmes carries a 3.13 ERA and gives up only 0.8 HR/9. With two competent arms and one of the league’s worst offenses involved, Peterson expects a low-scoring affair that never threatens nine runs.

Peterson’s final play was Under 8.5. Kodai Senga sports a sparkling 1.43 ERA with just one homer allowed in 10 starts, and the Mets bullpen ranks third at 2.89 ERA. Although Landon Knack owns a 6.17 ERA, his career 3.86 road mark suggests competence in spacious Citi Field. Peterson’s model shows 8.2 runs, enough edge to ride the Under.

Kenny G preferred the under 8.5 because the run-prevention pieces are stronger than the offenses in this spot. Kodai Senga’s 1.43 ERA and the Mets’ 2.87 bullpen ERA (3rd best) headline one side, while Landon Knack’s 6.17 ERA and the Dodgers’ 3.95 pen should still face a middling New York lineup that ranks only 13th in runs. Both clubs trend to the under in these splits—Los Angeles is 12-11 to the under on the road and New York is 14-8-2 to the under at Citi Field. The Mets’ biggest issue has been run support for Senga, and even though L.A. is MLB’s second-highest scoring offense overall, Kenny trusts Citi Field’s dimensions plus a quality Mets relief corps to keep them in check. He projected something in the 4-3 or 4-2 range and advised only a modest stake because the Dodgers’ bats can explode, but the numbers still pull him to the under.

Kenny G said the Mets are worth the –135 money-line price because Kodai Senga is pitching like a bona-fide ace while the Dodgers counter with shaky rookie Landon Knack. Senga owns a 1.43 ERA and has allowed three earned or fewer in every start this month; his "worst" of the last five was 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H in Boston. He is backed by MLB’s No. 3 bullpen (2.87 ERA) and an 18-6 home record. Knack brings a 6.17 ERA after being torched by Oakland and Arizona in consecutive outings, and L.A.’s bullpen has drifted to 3.95. Kenny noted the Dodgers are just 11-12 on the road, so their top-two offense may not fully bail out weak pitching. With Senga’s strikeout-heavy profile, New York’s eighth-ranked OBP should manufacture enough against Knack before handing a lead to that dominant relief corps. Kenny labeled it only a lean, but all the matchup edges point to the Mets.

Perrault laid –135 with the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball, riding Kodai Senga’s dominant Citi Field splits (0.44 ERA, 21 K, 1 ER in 20⅓ IP). He acknowledged the inherent risk fading the Dodgers but pointed to their pedestrian 13-12 road record and recent road stumbles against the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Braves. Spot starter Landon Nack owns a 4.82 road ERA and has yielded nine runs over his last two outings, giving the Mets’ bats a clear edge. With playoff-like energy in the park for the series rubber match, Perrault expects Senga to neutralize LA’s lineup and New York’s offense to capitalize, delivering a home win.

Romanelli targeted a scoring prop instead of a side, betting Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings at Citi Field. He praised Kodai Senga’s competitiveness but pointed out lingering command issues—three walks, five hits, multiple hard-hit balls in a six-inning, three-run no-decision against Boston. Facing the Dodgers’ top-three OPS offense amplifies that danger. On the other mound, Landon Knack has struggled all season, and Ron expects the Mets to capitalize on his flat cutter early. With both starters profiling for traffic and two bullpens that were heavily taxed earlier in the series, Romanelli sees runs coming in bunches before the sixth inning hits.

Drew Martin targeted the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball behind Kodai Senga’s elite numbers and a favourable matchup versus struggling rookie Landon Knack. Senga enters with a sub-1.50 ERA, only 38 hits allowed in 50 innings, and is coming off a six-inning, one-run, nine-strikeout masterpiece against these Dodgers. Knack, by contrast, has cratered to a 6-plus ERA and has been tattooed for nine earned and four homers across his last nine innings combined. With Senga showing the same wipe-out ghost fork that baffled Los Angeles earlier and expecting plus odds on the home side, Martin is backing the Mets moneyline in the primetime slot.

Kenny G backed the Mets at –115, citing a rare double edge in both starter and bullpen. David Peterson sports a 2.86 ERA and is fresh off six strong frames versus the Yankees; his 27.8% strikeout rate and sub-1.00 WHIP dwarf Tony Gonsolin’s 4.05 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Mets’ relief corps has been nails (2.91 bullpen ERA, 3rd in MLB), whereas L.A.’s unit sits at a disappointing 4.00. Although the Dodgers still grade 2nd in runs and 1st in average, they’ve scored 3-4-5-4 across the last four and are only 10-11 on the road. Citi Field has been a fortress (Mets 17-5 home), and Kenny believes Peterson plus the pen can neutralize a left-heavy Dodger lineup that has cooled. With Juan Soto struggling and Pete Alonso slumping, Kenny admits New York’s lineup isn’t firing on all cylinders but trusts their 8th-ranked OBP to generate enough against Gonsolin, projecting a 5-3 type win.

Despite a field packed with superstars—Ohtani, Betts, Alonso, Soto—the tout prefers the under, stressing both recent form and historical angles. David Peterson has allowed two or fewer runs in five straight starts, including one-run ball versus the Yankees, while Tony Gonsolin threw a shutout against Arizona earlier this month. The Dodgers have cashed two consecutive unders and the Mets nine of their last ten. With both bullpens rested, Cash Out anticipates a pitcher’s duel rather than the fireworks casual bettors expect from these names and recommends the full-game under.

Lonte Smith went the other way, backing the Mets at –115 because he can’t trust Tony Gonsolin’s bleeding finger on his throwing hand. Smith pointed out Gonsolin’s five walks in his last start and worries the issue will linger in humid Citi Field conditions. Peterson, meanwhile, has been nails at home – two or fewer earned in four of his last five starts in Queens – and the Dodgers are only 12-11 on the road. Yes, the southpaw has a walk bugaboo (10 free passes over his last 16 innings), but Los Angeles ranks just 20th in chase rate versus lefties, giving Peterson a margin for error. Smith tagged the Mets’ bullpen (2.97 ERA in May) as another edge and expects a 4-2 New York victory.

Bryan Power went back to the well with over 8.5 in Dodgers–Mets after Friday’s game sailed past the total. He argued that Los Angeles right-hander Tony Gonsolin has been shaky, while Mets lefty David Peterson is a pitcher he’s repeatedly faded. The Mets’ bullpen is banged up and has been leaking runs, and the Dodgers enter the weekend second in MLB in runs scored. Power believes those factors set up another high-scoring affair and prefers the over while it remains below nine.

Drew Martin advised taking the Mets –110 in the Saturday nightcap because David Peterson has quietly been lights-out while Tony Gonsolin is still shaking off rust. Peterson’s sub-3.00 ERA was on full display last Sunday when he blanked the Yankees for six innings of one-run, three-hit ball on national TV. The Mets are 17-5 at Citi Field and thrive against opponents over .500. Gonsolin, returning from last year’s injury, walked five and struck out only three in his last start, a red flag going into a tough road environment. Martin noted that getting the Dodgers as a dog is rare but still laid the small price with New York, trusting Peterson and the Mets’ strong home profile.

Donnie Rightside recommended taking the slight plus-money on the Mets’ moneyline against the Dodgers because Clayton Kershaw, in just his second start after returning from injury, no longer profiles as an ace. Kershaw was rocked for five earned runs over 4.0 innings (83 pitches, 20 batters faced) in his debut last Saturday. Rightside highlighted that the current Mets projected lineup has one of the lowest strikeout rates versus left-handed pitching over the past month, neutralizing Kershaw’s still-solid swing-and-miss repertoire. Meanwhile, Griffin Canning has quietly shoved—posting a 1.69 ERA and 3.20 xFIP across 21.1 innings during the last 30 days—while holding right-handed hitters in particular to sub-.250 wOBA. Although Los Angeles features dangerous lefties (Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Conforto), Canning’s splits versus lefties are respectable, and the 60-degree first-pitch temperature at Citi Field suppresses run scoring. Rightside called it “hard to say out loud,” but believes Canning is the better pitcher than Kershaw right now, making the dog price on New York mis-priced.

Peterson made the Mets -127 compared to market -110, highlighting both the starting-pitching and bullpen gaps. Tony Gonsolin’s 4.05 ERA masks a 4.69 FIP, 1.8 HR/9 and 4.1 BB/9—exactly the skill set that can implode at Citi Field. David Peterson counters with a 2.86 ERA while keeping the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9). Once the starters exit, New York leans on a bullpen ranked third in MLB (2.91 ERA); the Dodgers sit 17th at 4.00. With late-inning leverage swinging to Queens and Gonsolin’s home-run issues unresolved, Peterson is happy to lay the short price on the Mets.

Lonte Smith pounced on New York at -105, noting the market quickly flipped from +105 once bettors digested the pitching matchup. Griffin Canning has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts and sports a spotless ERA at Citi Field through three outings. Meanwhile, Kershaw’s first start off the IL featured shaky command, reduced whiffs, and a .467 xwOBA. Smith trusts a Mets offense that slashes .287/.349/.460 at home to give Canning early cushion. He projects the Mets closing closer to -120 and advised grabbing the near-even money before it disappears.

Jay Croucher said the best way to attack Friday’s NLCS-rematch is to take the Mets on the +1.5 run line. His reasoning started with the pitching mismatch: Griffin Canning is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and just held the Yankees to 2 ER over 5.1 innings, while Clayton Kershaw looked nowhere near vintage form in his season debut (11.25 ERA after surrendering 5 ER in 4 IP to the Angels). Croucher noted that the Dodgers have won 19 of 30 following a win, but the +1.5 cushion neutralizes that trend, especially with New York’s pen rested after a Thursday off-day. The model the NBC Sports Bet staff runs made the Mets a slight favorite on a neutral field, giving the +1.5 a 5% edge over fair price. Citi Field’s neutral run-scoring environment and the Mets’ above-average defensive efficiency also factor into the play.

Peterson took the Mets +104, pricing them -121. Clayton Kershaw yielded 5 runs in 4 innings in his season debut and now faces a Mets lineup while still stretching out. New York counters with Griffin Canning, who has surrendered just five total runs over his last five starts (2.47 ERA). The Mets bullpen owns the third-best ERA in MLB at 2.91, whereas the Dodgers relief unit sits 17th at 4.00. Combined with Kershaw’s uncertain form, Peterson sees the matchup tilting toward New York.

Lindquist bet Tylor Megill’s strike-out over 5.5 (opened –125, now –130) in his matchup with the Red Sox. Megill’s four-seam sets up his wipe-out secondaries—41.3% whiff slider to righties plus a curveball/change combo that generates 36.8% and 26.7% whiffs to lefties. Lindquist highlighted Megill’s 29% overall K-rate and called the curveball “ridonkulous,” predicting plenty of swing-and-miss versus Boston’s left-handed core (Devers, Duran, Abreu). He hinted at alt-lines, noting he may “extend the boundaries beyond just five and a half.”

Chris Ruffolo said Pete Alonso is worth a home-run ticket at +340 because the Mets slugger has dominated Walker Buehler historically. In 14 career at-bats against Buehler, Alonso is 5-for-14 with FOUR of those hits leaving the yard. Ruffolo noted that Buehler is expected to get the ball for Boston on Tuesday and has been solid overall, which keeps the price generous, but Alonso’s extreme HR success in the matchup makes the risk worthwhile. Ruffolo reminded listeners these props are long shots but called Alonso his favorite matchup-based play on the slate.

JD Bets flagged Pete Alonso as a prime Dinger Tuesday target if Walker Buehler indeed takes the hill for Boston. In the small but telling sample, Alonso owns 4 homers and 8 RBI in just 14 career at-bats against Buehler, translating to a .286 average with a ridiculous .857 slugging percentage. JD called it a personal "vendetta" matchup and noted that right-handed Mets hitters in general have fared well against Buehler’s fastball/slider combo when he has been less than fully stretched out. Although current boards were temporarily missing standard HR lines, JD said he will add Alonso the moment markets reopen, preferring the straight home-run prop but willing to consider a Runs+RBI combo if pricing dictates.

Brad Francis played Holmes under 5.5 strikeouts at Fenway Park. The right-hander has stayed below six punch-outs in four of his last five starts, and Francis doubts he suddenly racks up Ks in a hitter-friendly park against what he called a “decent Boston team.” He is comfortable laying the –145 juice on the prop.

Malcom Bamford said the Mets are a bet at –125 because Clay Holmes has earned full trust: New York is 7-2 straight-up in his starts and the right-hander owns a 3.14 ERA (2.49 FIP). Boston, meanwhile, has dropped five of its last six and has surrendered 8.3 runs per game in that stretch, coughing up double-digit runs three times. Although Rafael Devers has finally heated up, Bamford doubts Walker Buehler’s effectiveness in his first start back from the IL and noted the Red Sox are just 2-under .500 despite playing mostly at Fenway. With the Mets only slight road favorites rather than their usual ‘prohibitive’ price, he felt the number was cheap enough to lay.

Peterson projected only 8.4 total runs at Fenway and therefore played Under 9. He cited Mets starter Clay Holmes’ 3.14 ERA with 0.6 HR/9 and a fifth-ranked New York bullpen sporting a 3.05 ERA. Although Boston’s Walker Buehler carries a 4.26 season ERA, he has surrendered three runs or fewer in four straight outings, suggesting upward momentum. The Red Sox relief corps is solid as well, 12th in MLB with a 3.72 ERA. With two starters who suppress the long ball and above-average pens on both sides, Peterson expects a tight, lower-scoring affair that stays beneath the market total.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Mets, riding Kodai Senga’s sizzling 1.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 42-19 K/BB across 44.1 innings. No opponent has scored more than two earned runs on him all season. New York has won six of nine and owns a 15-3 run against AL East clubs. Boston has dropped four of five and trots out rookie Hunter Dobbins (3.90 ERA) who tends to give up hard contact. Even with the Mets traveling after a Sunday-night game, the tout trusts Senga’s nasty splitter and New York’s hotter lineup to take the series opener at Fenway.

Kenny G advised laying the –140 with the Mets because Kodai Senga has been flat-out filthy: a 1.02 ERA on the season and zero outings above two earned runs in his last five, despite facing hot Arizona and St. Louis lineups. Boston counters with rookie Hunter Dobbins, who just surrendered nine hits and five earned to Detroit and sports a 3.90 ERA with volatile command. Kenny trusts New York’s 2.93-ERA bullpen far more than Boston’s still-shaky 3.72 relief corps. The Mets’ offense has cooled lately but remains sixth in MLB runs on the season, while the Red Sox have dropped five of six and are struggling to string hits. Given Senga’s form, bullpen edge and the short Yankee-to-Fenway travel spot, Kenny called –140 “significant value” and expects New York to notch a road victory.

The Bettor Mark leaned to the Mets moneyline at +115 in Game 2 of the Subway Series. He likes the "zig-zag" narrative after the Yankees got their revenge Friday in a 6-2 win and believes New York’s National League club owns the better mound matchup: rookie right-hander Griffin Canning brings a 5-1 record and 2.36 ERA into Yankee Stadium opposite Clark Schmidt. Mark also cited the short porch and winds blowing out to left, factors that can mitigate Schmidt’s solid strike-throwing profile. With the Mets bats heating up and the plus price attached, he labeled the Amazins a "live short underdog" worth a sprinkle.

JD Bets liked Tylor Megill to beat his 5.5-strikeout prop in the Subway Series. Megill is averaging 6.5 Ks per start on the season and 7.0 over his last five, showing an uptick in both whiff rate and slider usage. The Yankees, meanwhile, punch out 8.8 times per game over their last ten (9.1 on the season), the sixth-worst mark in MLB during that stretch. JD dismissed Carlos Rodon’s number because the Mets rarely fan (7.8 per game), settling on Megill as the only angle. He admitted it "might be a little sweaty," but believes the right-hander’s recent form and New York’s strike-happy lineup give him a clear path to the six strikeouts needed to cash.

Reichel grabbed the Mets at +125, reminding listeners that they swept last year’s Subway Series and possess the better bullpen. While Carlos Rodon has been sharp, New York’s relief corps has repeatedly blown his leads, and the Yankees offense was lifeless in the final two games versus Seattle. Reichel trusts Tylor Megill to keep the game close and likes the price on a Mets club that is 28-16 overall despite playing .500 ball on the road.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down with the over, emphasizing both clubs’ home-run prowess in a friendly park. The Yankees pace MLB with 76 bombs, while the Mets have 53 and own a top-5 walk rate—fuel for big innings against Megill, who has served up three homers in his last three starts and struggles when men reach base. The Yankees have hit the over in three of their last five, and every Megill start has gone over in that same stretch. Rodon may shove, but the Mets’ power plus New York’s red-hot bats make double-digit runs a realistic expectation.

Backing Under 9, Peterson highlighted a pair of strikeout-heavy arms and elite bullpens. Tylor Megill sports a 3.10 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 11.5 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 HR/9; Carlos Rodon counters with a 3.29 ERA and identical 11 K/9. Should either starter tire, the relief units can slam the door—the Mets bullpen ranks 4th with a 2.98 ERA and the Yankees 9th at 3.47. Peterson posted 8.3 as his true number, making the current total too high.

Francisco Lindor ($4,000) made Bennett’s short list thanks to a track record against Carlos Rodon: 10-for-35 (.286) with two homers and four walks. The rest of the Mets are just 9-for-34 combined, so Lindor offers both floor and leverage as the clear piece of the order most likely to do damage against the Yankees’ lefty.

Guy Boston is going right back to the well with the Mets first-five run line −0.5 (−134 on ProfitX) versus Bailey Falter. He trusts Clay Holmes’ sinker/slider combo to keep the Pirates quiet, noting Pittsburgh ranks 27th against sliders and sits middle-of-the-pack versus sinkers. Cooler, damp Citi Field conditions further depress run scoring for the Bucs, while New York’s offense should scrape together two to three early runs against Falter’s mediocre 18 % K-rate. Boston compared market pricing— most books have the play in the −150s— and said grabbing anything better than −140 is value before a peer-to-peer match disappears.

Erik Halterman called Mark Vientos a live buy-low after a misleading start. Vientos cratered at .109 with zero homers through his first 13 games, but even in that stretch he chopped his K-rate from 30 % last year to 18 % and was undone by a .152 BABIP. Over his last 25 contests he is batting .309 with five homers and only a 22 % K-rate. Season-to-date he still shows a blah .243/.721 line, keeping trade cost down. The one red flag Halterman noted is a massive drop in pull rate—42 % last year to 29 % overall and just 21 % during the hot run—which could cap raw power. If that remains, the added opposite-field approach plus better contact offers batting-average upside; if he starts pulling again, the homers come back. Either way Halterman sees any disappointed managers as an opportunity to grab a useful corner infielder for pennies.