B Wade is fading Tyrone Taylor under 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Taylor owns a brutal .161 average against left-handed pitching this year and has stayed below 1.5 H/R/R in 73 % of all games. Versus left-handed starters specifically, he has gone over the prop in only 3 of 21 contests, none since mid-May. With Noah Cameron sporting a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-3.00 ERA from the left side, Wade projects limited on-base chances for Taylor and calls the under one of his favorite plays on Sunday’s board.

Chris Welsh urged listeners to scoop up Ronny Mauricio wherever he is still available. Welsh said Mauricio will be the Mets’ starting third baseman for the rest of the season, noting his plus arm, strong infield defense and "easy power" that flashed during recent games. With Mark Vientos scuffling and Brett Baty in Triple-A, Welsh expects Mauricio to see the bulk of starts at the hot corner and project for roughly a 20-homer, 10-steal pace over a full second half. Because he remains unrostered in many formats, Welsh labeled Mauricio the highest-upside waiver add at the position right now.

Pisapia likes the Mets’ team-total over (price not specified) and a separate +105 homer prop on Pete Alonso in Baltimore. He called Alonso "red-hot" and emphasized that Camden Yards plays perfectly to Alonso’s pull-side power. Opposing starter Shintaro Saggano—whom Pisapia labeled a "gas can"—has allowed hard contact north of 45 % in his last three outings, setting the table for a big Mets night. The recommendation is to stack both wagers, using Alonso’s form and the favorable park/pitcher combo as correlated angles.

Despite not knowing New York’s starter, Cash Out Sports Picks leaned Mets in Game 2 because Baltimore’s starter Sugano (4.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) has been crushed lately—45 hits and 23 ER in his last 29.1 IP—and even worse at home (4.91 ERA, .288 BAA). The tout expects the Mets’ mid-pack but improving offense (4.45 R/G, 4.47 on road) to take advantage.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Mets on the moneyline in Game 1, pointing to a clear edge on the mound and at the plate. David Peterson’s 3.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP have kept New York in virtually every start, while 41-year-old Charlie Morton owns an ugly 5.47 ERA and 1.55 WHIP overall and a 5.12 ERA with a .272 opponent average in 45.2 Camden Yards innings. The tout said New York’s lineup has "found its rhythm," and with Morton showing obvious age-related decline, the Mets should control the game from start to finish.

Francis targeted the Game-2 nightcap of Thursday’s double-header, recommending Mets team total over 4.5 runs. He said hitting conditions at Camden Yards will be advantageous and that Baltimore spot-starter Tomoyuki Sugano "hasn’t looked good as of late." Despite riding the Orioles run-line Wednesday, Francis is flipping sides because Sugano’s declining command plus a humid forecast set up well for New York’s offense to clear five runs.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Mets, citing a clear pitching edge: David Peterson sports a 3.68 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across his last 44 frames, while Tomoyuki Sugano owns a bloated 6.75 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in his previous 34.2. New York’s .742 team OPS ranks 7th, compared to Baltimore’s middling .705. Sugano has been tagged for 45 hits and 23 earned in his last 29.1 innings and carries a 4.91 ERA with a .288 BAA at Camden, making the visitor the play.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 1.5 total bases for Brandon Nimmo, highlighting a torrid stretch in which Nimmo has cleared the mark in seven of his last ten and racked up 3, 5, 2, 4 and 5 bases in five of his past six games. Although his season-long hit rate on this line is only 41%, Harrelson stressed that Nimmo is locked-in on the road—averaging 2.9 total bases and cashing 7 of his last 8 away from Citi Field. He also draws a right-handed starter, and Nimmo’s .258 average in 252 plate appearances versus righties slightly edges his overall .255 clip. Harrelson added that Nimmo has topped the prop in two of the last three head-to-head meetings with Baltimore, including three total bases yesterday, and the betting market is heavily juicing the over.

Malcom Bamford said to keep it simple and bet the Mets team total (and money-line) because Brandon Young is a gas can. Young sits at 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA and has been rocked by right-handed hitters such as Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Clay Holmes, meanwhile, owns a 2.79 ERA on the road, so Bamford expects New York to play from in front. Baltimore’s bullpen has coughed up a 5.12 ERA in its last 10 games and the Orioles’ defensive metrics are bottom tier. Offense should be plentiful: eight of the Mets’ last nine have gone over the total and seven of the last eight Mets-Orioles match-ups at Camden Yards have as well. All of that led Bamford to fire on the Mets team total over.

Ron Pick Dawgz backed the Mets on the money-line, calling the Clay Holmes vs. Brandon Young matchup “lopsided.” Young brings a 7.02 ERA and, in Ron’s words, “isn’t a viable big-league starter right now,” while the Mets have been hot against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Holmes has road splits Ron trusts—five to six solid innings are expected if he limits recently rising walks. With New York swinging well and getting the far better arm, Ron labeled the Mets the clear side.

The Bettor Mark backed the Mets at -125, calling the number "too cheap" compared with his own projection that New York should have been a steeper favorite. He leaned on three core factors: (1) Clay Holmes owns a sub-1.00 WHIP and is holding hitters below .200, giving the Mets five to six solid innings in nearly every start; (2) the lineup is scorching, ranking 7th in MLB batting average over the past week and coming off an off-day after winning four of five; (3) Baltimore returns from a road trip in which they were swept by Atlanta and have been inconsistent, dropping two of three to Texas just before that. Camden Yards’ short right-field porch worries some bettors, but Mark is not concerned, noting Holmes’ heavy ground-ball profile. He labeled New York a "first official play" and recommended laying the modest price as a short road favorite.

Eric Lindquist said Juan Soto is in a perfect get-right environment Tuesday at Camden Yards. He highlighted Soto’s elite current metrics – a 56.6 percent hard-hit rate, .457 xwOBA and .650 expected slugging – while noting the star outfielder is running more (10 steals already) and still posting a .904 OPS despite an uncharacteristically low .263 batting average. The matchup is against rookie right-hander Brandon Young, whose minor-league track record shows no real weapon to neutralize left-handed power. With warm hitting weather and a short right-field porch in Baltimore, Lindquist expects Soto to rack up bases and labeled him a strong over 1.5 total-bases or home-run prop target, plus a core DFS spend-up.

It's The Final Round said Juan Soto is a strong bet to record at least one hit Tuesday. The matchup is attractive because Orioles rookie Brandon Young has made four MLB starts and has yet to work five full innings while surrendering a .333 batting average to left-handed hitters. Soto himself is heating up: he owns a .333 average (7-for-21) over the past week and is 5-for-9 (.556) with a homer against right-handed pitching during the last seven days. Combining Soto with Lawrence Butler in a two-leg hit parlay pays roughly +100, but Soto is a standalone play thanks to Young’s lack of put-away stuff and Baltimore’s vulnerable bullpen.

Scott Reichel fired on Over 9 because a 10-mph breeze to straightaway center and Frankie Montas’ recent blow-ups create ideal run-scoring conditions. Montas has surrendered 11 runs in 9 innings over his last two outings and sports a 6.15 xERA that suggests worse days ahead. Although Carlos Rodon’s surface numbers are strong, Reichel noted his strikeout rate has dropped four straight starts, making him more homer-prone in a park where the ball will carry. With both bullpens ranking bottom-10 in ERA since mid-June, Reichel projects a 6-5 type game and will take any total of 9.5 or lower.

Scott Reichel said the Yankees are simply too messy to back in the opener of the Subway Series and laid out why he is taking the Mets on the moneyline even before New York names a starter. The Yankees’ bullpen owns a 6.00-plus ERA over the last 10 games, has blown multiple late leads, and the club’s fundamentals are crumbling – Reichel ticked off poor defense, sloppy base-running and an offense that scored just once in Wednesday’s loss despite finally showing life early. Meanwhile the Mets’ staff is just as shaky (team ERA north of six the last 10) but their lineup is hotter, and Mets games have sailed over in seven of 10. Reichel believes the Yankees’ evaporated division lead is no fluke and says the Mets’ superior current form and home field justify backing them regardless of who takes the mound.

Lindquist flagged Juan Soto over 1.5 walks as a playable prop against Marcus Stroman. Stroman’s control has abandoned him, posting a 13.6% walk rate through his first 49 batted-ball events and a 5.88 expected ERA. Lindquist added that the New York bullpen “has no identity,” cycling through arms like Weaver while dropping three straight in Toronto, so additional free passes after Stroman exits are live. With Soto’s trademark patience and Stroman’s current wildness, Lindquist expects at least two free passes at plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Mets in the Subway Series opener. New York’s NL squad owns a 31-13 home record and carries two straight wins into Citi Field, while the Yankees limp in 3-7 over their last ten and on a four-game skid. Marcus Stroman has been a disaster for the Bronx Bombers, posting an 8.16 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through four starts. The Mets’ reliable bullpen and home-park edge tipped the scales to their money-line.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on his earlier stance by again recommending the Mets money line. He acknowledged David Peterson’s rough June (31 hits and 11 walks in 31.2 IP, three straight starts with exactly three free passes) but argued that Citi Field should neutralize some of Milwaukee’s momentum. The Brewers do rank 11th in both wOBA and wRC+ versus left-handers and sit first in league-wide wRC+ over the last two weeks, yet Jose Quintana’s recent form provides a counterweight: the veteran has surrendered 4+ runs in two of his last three outings and finished June with a shaky 17-16 K-BB ratio. The tout expects New York’s lineup—eager to snap a losing skid—to capitalize on Quintana’s control issues while the home crowd adds energy. Even though the Mets bullpen owns the 29th-ranked ERA over the past 14 days, he trusts their overall staff depth more than Milwaukee’s relief corps, which is bottom-10 on the season. All told, the handicapper labeled the Mets the superior side value at home.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Mets money line, leaning on Citi Field advantage and New York’s superior staff. The Mets sit 11 games over .500 and boast a 3.46 team ERA, while Milwaukee travels after an 11-inning loss and owns a higher 3.77 ERA. Although David Peterson has been shaky—31 hits and 11 walks in his last 31.2 innings—the Brewers hit lefties well and could tax New York’s bullpen (29th-ranked ERA over the last two weeks). Even so, the tout expects the Mets’ balanced offense (.245 team average, 368 runs) and home crowd to spur a bounce-back against a Milwaukee club that has dropped four of its last six.

Malcom Bamford said bettors should grab the Mets at +110 in the nightcap even though Jacob Mizorowski has dominated (only three hits allowed through three starts). Bamford thinks the rookie is being priced like Corbin Burnes on the road and could regress the way Chase Burns did when Cincinnati tattooed him for seven runs Tuesday. Blade Tidwell is "very hittable," but New York’s pen is rested after Monday’s rainout, and Citi Field has played slightly pitcher-friendly this year. Bamford noted the Brewers bullpen has coughed up eight away leads, so if Tidwell can keep it close through five he expects the Mets lineup (99 wRC+ at home) to steal it late at an inflated number.

Malcom Bamford said the Mets are a buy at –130 against Milwaukee. He trusts Citi Field’s huge home-field edge (29-12 straight-up), notes the Brewers are merely .500 on the road, and points out Freddie Peralta’s 4.02 road ERA versus a sub-3.00 mark at home. Clay Holmes owns a steady 2.97 ERA overall with seven straight starts of three earned runs or fewer, and Bamford thinks the market is slightly shading Milwaukee because Peralta is the ‘bigger name.’ He expected New York to open closer to –120 and is comfortable backing them at the current tag, projecting the Mets as –140 favorites once you bake in the split differentials.

Kenny G recommended the under 9.5 in Sunday’s Mets–Pirates matchup. He trusts Frankie Montas, who fired five scoreless frames with seven punch-outs in his season debut against Atlanta, to keep Pittsburgh in check. Opposing rookie Mike Burrows has flashed upside and is backed by a Pirates bullpen that has quietly improved to a 3.80 ERA, though several key arms may be unavailable after heavy usage Saturday. New York’s lineup has scored just three total runs in the first two games of the set and is 24-16-1 to the under on the road. Pittsburgh, despite consecutive nine-run outbursts, still ranks near the bottom of the league and plays in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. With both clubs trending to the under and a lofty 9.5 posted, Kenny expects runs to be at a premium.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Mark Vientos for less than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Vientos has stayed under in nine of his last ten, 15 of his last 17, and four straight versus Pittsburgh. On the year he is under in 35 of 55 games (64%). He has failed to top the line in six consecutive road games, managing only 0.5 H+R+RBI per outing during that span. Despite a neutral pitching matchup, Harrelson trusts the trend and market signal — DraftKings, Hard Rock, Fliff and Sleeper all list the Under around –125 — as evidence that the books expect another quiet day from the struggling Met.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Mets money line. Paul Blackburn’s modest numbers are balanced by a Pirates squad starting Bailey Falter, who owns a 5.12 ERA in June and has given up six runs across his last 10.2 frames with shaky control (five walks). New York’s bullpen ranks 7th with a 3.40 ERA versus Pittsburgh’s 17th-place 3.92 mark, and the Mets hold a .744 team OPS compared to the Pirates’ .639 (29th in MLB). New York has taken seven of the last ten head-to-head, giving the tout confidence to back the road favorite.

B Wade recommended Juan Soto OVER 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs. After an early slump with the Mets, Soto has erupted for six homers in his last seven contests, including two multi-homer games, and has cleared 2.5 H+R+RBI in four of his past five. He owns a .375 batting average (3-for-8) in a limited sample against lefty Bailey Falter and remains the centerpiece of a New York lineup looking to bounce back from Friday’s dud. Given the power surge and a soft Pittsburgh pitching matchup, Wade expects at least one long ball or multiple run-producing plate appearances to push Soto over the number.

Just A Bet Outside advised taking the Mets’ team total under (or Pittsburgh money-line) because the matchup with Mitch Keller has been brutal for New York’s hitters. Jeff McNeil (1-for-12), Francisco Lindor (3-for-17), and Pete Alonso (0-for-12 with three Ks) have combined for a .081 average off Keller. The right-hander has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and surrendered just two earned over seven frames when he faced the Mets on May 13. With David Peterson scuffling (eight earned in his last 11 IP) and Keller locked in, the tout expects another low-scoring night for the Flushing offense and recommends under 3.5 runs or lower.

Jeff Fox’s Underdog Fantasy pick-em play for Wednesday’s Braves-Mets game is the ‘higher than’ on Juan Soto’s 0.5 strikeout projection. Fox noted Soto has already fanned multiple times in the series—Spencer Strider and Allan Winans both punched him out—so he expects Atlanta’s staff to exploit the superstar’s swing-and-miss again. With only one strikeout needed to cash and Soto’s recent whiff trend vs Braves pitching, Fox sees the over as a strong single-leg anchor.

Kenny G recommended backing the Mets at –110 to earn a series split with Atlanta. He noted that New York still boasts a 17-12 home record (tied for best in MLB) and a sturdy 3.47 bullpen ERA, while their offense ranks top-10 in both on-base and slugging even with a pedestrian .256 team average. Juan Soto’s two-homer breakout pushed him to 19 bombs and, according to Kenny, should buoy clubhouse confidence. Griffin Canning takes the ball at 7-3, 3.91 ERA; Kenny expects some positive regression after three mediocre starts and likes that Atlanta hasn’t seen him this year. On the other side, Grant Holmes owns a 3.71 ERA and eye-popping strikeout upside (15 Ks vs Colorado) but also shaky control—five walks in his last outing—and turns matters over to a Braves bullpen with a middling 3.65 ERA. Atlanta’s lineup is 22nd in runs and dreadful on the road (15-26). With sportsbooks dealing a pick ’em and totals creeping up to 8.5, Kenny passes on the under and puts his money behind the Mets’ bullpen edge, home dominance, and livelier bats.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the OVER on Griffin Canning’s strikeout prop when he faces Atlanta. Canning owns a 24 % strikeout rate against left-handed hitters (just 18 % versus righties), and Lindquist projects the Braves to start at least five lefties or switch hitters, including Ozzie Albies. Atlanta has fanned at a 24.4 % clip versus right-handed pitching over the last month, and Lindquist expects a normal pitch count that gives Canning a path to 6–7 Ks. Because mainstream models have him around 4.5 strikeouts, Lindquist called the spot “sneaky” value and wants to pounce before the market adjusts.

Kenny G said he would side with the Mets at -145 even though he “doesn’t love” the price. The case centers on pitching: Atlanta hands the ball to 20-year-old rookie Jose Fuentes (0-1, 7.20 ERA) after a shaky debut, while New York counters with Clay Holmes (7-4, 3.04 ERA) and one of MLB’s elite bullpens (3.29 ERA, third best). Citi Field has been kind to the Mets (27-10 home, 20-15-2 to the under) whereas the Braves are just 14-26 on the road and rank 22nd in runs scored. Kenny thinks the bullpen edge combined with Atlanta’s travel woes and inexperienced starter create a reasonable bounce-back spot for the Mets, even if he isn’t rushing to post the pick in his pinned plays.

It’s The Final Round expects Juan Soto to notch a hit versus 20-year-old Braves right-hander Didier Fuentes. Fuentes carries good fastball command and walked only one batter in his debut, meaning plenty of strikes for Soto to attack. The lefty slugger is batting .308 with eight hits and four homers over the last week despite frequent intentional walks. The analyst highlighted Soto’s legendary plate discipline and noted he treats every young pitcher as a personal challenge, predicting "barbecue chicken" when Fuentes brings the heater over the plate.

Lonte Smith backed the Mets as +125 home underdogs even with Spencer Strider on the bump for Atlanta. Smith framed it as a classic buy-low; the Braves have won seven of the last ten and just out-scored New York 17-5 in a recent three-game sweep, so he expects the market to be inflated toward Atlanta. He thinks the Mets’ offense will bounce back in familiar Citi Field confines and noted that Strider, while trending up, is still just two starts removed from his IL stint. Smith trusts a healthier Montas to keep New York in striking distance and believes the psychological edge of wanting pay-back for that embarrassing road sweep matters in a division rivalry.

Guy Boston Sports said the Mets are worth a plus-money stab in a classic get-back spot. Atlanta just swept New York last week but then dropped two of three to Miami, suggesting a slight let-up. Spencer Schwellenbach has looked human over his last five turns—6.0 hits, 2.8 runs, and one homer allowed per start—and the Mets saw him less than a week ago. Paul Blackburn makes only his third start of the season and first at home; while he surrendered three runs in 3.2 innings to these Braves last time, his other outing was at Dodger Stadium, so the sample is tough to judge. The handicap banks on familiarity with Schwellenbach, a potential offensive bounce-back for a lineup that posted 11 runs in its lone win versus Philadelphia, and the plus-price attached to the home dog. For the risk-averse, he suggested a Mets team-total over, but the primary recommendation is the moneyline.

The podcast flagged Brandon Nimmo as the lone ‘bad hitter matchup’ on Monday’s slate. Nimmo is a brutal 0-for-12 with four strikeouts against starter Sweaty Schroenbach, and the Mets’ leadoff man has shown little power in the split. Given that the Mets already own the seventh-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (20.7%), Nimmo’s personal struggles stand out even more. Just A Bet Outside advised fading Nimmo in DFS cash builds and avoiding his hitting props until he shows he can solve this particular matchup.

B Wade recommended betting Pete Alonso to record at least one hit Monday. Alonso has tallied a hit in 73 % of games this year and has not gone hitless in back-to-back contests since early May. After being blanked Sunday versus Philadelphia, Wade expects a rebound. The slugger is 4-for-11 (.364) in his career against projected starter Spencer Schmoenbach and owns a .312 average versus right-handed pitching overall. Those trends, paired with Alonso’s season-long consistency, make Wade confident the single-hit prop cashes.

Ron Romanelli sided with the Mets on the money line, preferring David Peterson’s floor to Jesus Luzardo’s ceiling. Luzardo has surrendered nine earned runs and eight walks across his last 11 innings, and Philadelphia has dropped four of his past five starts, three by multiple runs. Peterson’s strikeout rate is down, but he continues to dodge barrels (0.82 HR/9) and strand runners at a respectable clip. Ron argued both offenses have sagged versus left-handed pitching over the past month—each owns an OPS under .700—so the more dependable starter becomes the difference. He also noted New York’s bullpen has a 2.88 ERA since June 1, giving him additional confidence to back the Mets as short dogs.

Kenny G leaned toward the Mets at roughly –105 despite admitting the game is messy. He expects Jesus Luzardo’s Jekyll-and-Hyde season (4.41 ERA, shelled by the Marlins and Blue Jays in two of his last three) to show its ugly side, and Philadelphia’s 4.64 bullpen ERA offers little protection once the lefty departs. New York counters with David Peterson, who sports a 2.60 ERA and is coming off seven solid innings in Oakland after a complete game against Washington. The Mets bullpen has quietly been top-eight all year (3.32 ERA). Although New York’s bats have been ice-cold outside of Saturday’s 11-run outburst, Kenny believes a vulnerable Phillies staff gives them a path to 5–6 runs, enough for Peterson and the pen to secure the W. Because of the volatility he is limiting exposure, but he still prefers the Mets side in what books have priced as a pick’em.

For Sunday Night Baseball, Martin prefers the Mets behind lefty David Peterson. Peterson is 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA despite facing tough lineups all season. Meanwhile, Phillies southpaw Jose Luzardo (4-4, 4-plus ERA) has imploded in June, surrendering 25 earned runs in just 16 innings, including blow-up outings of 12 and eight earned runs. Martin adds that New York owns the bullpen advantage and comparable offensive numbers over the full year. If weekend form cooperates, he will take the Metropolitan moneyline in Philadelphia.

Malcolm Bamford is isolating New York’s bats and playing their team-total under. He trusts Zack Wheeler to ‘lock them down’, noting the Mets were blanked again Thursday and have fallen into an offensive funk on the road. Wheeler’s home splits are even nastier than his season line, while the Mets sit bottom-10 in wRC+ as visitors. Bamford called Tylor Megill ‘reliably average’, making him reluctant to lay a full-game under because Philadelphia could score. Instead he projects ≤3 runs for New York and will attack whatever team-total books hang, ideally 3.5 or higher.

Kenny G circled the Mets at +110 as his 'dog of the day.' He likes Clay Holmes’ 2.87 ERA and 7-3 record, calling him the steadier arm compared to a struggling Spencer Strider who is just 1-5 with a 4.35 ERA despite flashing strikeout upside. The Mets bullpen provides insurance with a 3.07 ERA, seventh-best in MLB, while Atlanta’s relief unit sits at 3.85. Although New York’s bats are ice-cold (0, 4, 0, 4, 5 runs last five), Kenny trusts their season-long profile—5th in slugging, 3rd in OBP—to wake up against a Braves lineup ranked 22nd in runs and 20th in slugging. Trend-wise, both clubs lean heavily under in their home/road splits (Mets 21-14-1 to the under away; Braves 20-12-3 to the under at Truist), which further supports a tight, lower-scoring game where one swing could decide it. Kenny prices New York closer to –105 and is willing to play the Mets down to +102. A smaller sprinkle on Under 8.5 is optional, but the headline play is Mets ML.

In the bad-hitter matchups rundown, Just A Bet Outside warned against backing Pete Alonso props or paying up for him in DFS tonight. Alonso is just 2-for-12 with seven punch-outs against Spencer Strider, a ghastly .167 average accompanied by a 58% strikeout rate. Strider’s elite four-seam/slider combo specifically neutralizes Alonso’s power zone, and with wind blowing in Atlanta, the path to a multi-hit or home-run day looks slim. The host recommended pivoting to other first basemen and taking a cautious stance on Alonso’s hit or total-bases markets.

During the good-hitter matchup segment, Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Brandon Nimmo as a sneaky DFS and prop target against Spencer Strider. Nimmo is 8-for-16 lifetime with two home runs versus the Braves’ ace, giving him a ridiculous .500 average and .938 slug in the head-to-head. Strider’s dominant reputation will suppress Nimmo’s ownership and keep his total-bases prop affordable, but the history suggests Nimmo sees the ball extremely well out of Strider’s hand. The host labeled him one of the dozen best matchups on the slate, making him viable for single-game DFS builds or a one-hit/total-bases wager.

Bamford wants no part of Paul Blackburn after the right-hander recorded only one out and surrendered four earned in his last start. Instead, he is attacking the New York Mets team total under against Chris Sale. Sale has been “bullet-proof,” and Bamford projects a typical seven-inning, two-run outing that should mute New York’s offense. Atlanta’s lineup volatility kept him off a side, but he trusts Sale’s form and Blackburn’s inconsistency enough to fade the Mets’ run production.

Steven flagged David Peterson as a prime fade candidate in Atlanta. The left-hander threw a career-high 106 pitches in a complete-game shutout of Washington his last time out—a classic let-down setup. Peterson now draws a Braves lineup with established success against him: Austin Riley is 9-for-23, Marcell Ozuna has six Ks but plenty of hard contact, and Ozzie Albies plus Michael Harris have logged quality at-bats. Steven said this is "the moment" for anyone who likes to fade pitchers coming off a career outing, recommending either Braves moneyline, their team-total over, or individual hitter props versus Peterson owing to likely fatigue, regression and Atlanta’s right-handed power.

Martin is backing the Mets over the Rays, listing Griffin Canning versus Shane Baz. New York sits 45-24 atop the NL East, owns a slight bullpen edge and is scorching right-handed pitching. Canning, the former UCLA second-rounder, is 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has played only 25 of its first 68 games on the road and carries a far worse split away from Tropicana. Baz flashes triple-digit velocity but is inconsistent and prone to hard contact, something Martin thinks a hot Mets lineup will exploit. He recommends locking in the Mets ML once Canning is confirmed.

Guy Boston Sports said the only side he could justify in Saturday’s Rays-Mets game is the New York money line. Tampa ran five of its eight relievers (Fairbanks, Clevinger, Useta, Orze, Montgomery) last night, so Kevin Cash’s pen is taxed while the Mets’ high-leverage arms are rested. Citi Field is dealing with rain and swirling wind, conditions the tout believes favor small-ball offenses; he grades the Mets lineup superior in that style. Although Drew Rasmussen holds the starting-pitching edge over Tylor Megill, the worn-down Rays bullpen and New York’s home-field advantage tilt the late innings toward the Amazins. He recommended a half-unit play at current –110 to +100 prices, pairing it with his larger First-Five Under 4.5 ticket.

B Wade played Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at even money, noting Soto has cashed in eight of the last 10 games and 11 of 14 since a slump-busting Colorado series. He has demolished Tampa, clearing this line in six straight with an eye-popping average of six HRR per game over the last five meetings. Drew Rasmussen owns a sparkling 2.20 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP but finally showed cracks by allowing two runs and multiple hits to Miami last time out. Given Soto’s torrid form and extreme success versus the Rays, Wade argued the book is still undervaluing the superstar.

Kenny G called the Mets –166 moneyline a bargain and a potential "lock of the day." The Mets own MLB’s best home record at 27-7 and ride a six-game winning streak, averaging 6.5 runs during that span. Clay Holmes sits at 7-3 with a 2.95 ERA and just survived Coors Field with one earned over six innings; a bullpen sporting a 2.89 ERA (second in MLB) backs him. Taj Bradley has regressed to a 4.58 ERA and was blasted for seven earned by Miami in his last outing. Tampa’s lineup has produced only four total runs in its last two games and ranks 19th in OBP. Kenny sees clear edges in starting pitching, bullpen and home field, and said he would back New York up to –190.

Guy Boston Sports said he prefers the Mets team-total over rather than laying the steep money-line price. He pointed to a clear pitching mismatch – Kodai Senga owns strong surface numbers while Michael Soroka’s underlying stats (inflated FIP and WHIP) paint him as hittable. Weather further tilts the board: first-pitch temps near 80° with 13 mph winds blowing out to the power alleys in Nationals Park. Add in a shaky Washington bullpen and an eight-run game total he considers suspiciously low, and he expects New York to plate a "respectable number" despite getaway-day worries. He dismissed the Nats’ lineup as too inconsistent to trust, so isolating the Mets bats is his preferred wager.

Guy Boston Sports grabbed Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases at +130 (half-unit lean). Soto has topped this number in 7 of his last 10 (70%), posting 2.7 TB per game, and in 4 of his last 5 (3.4 TB). He has been feasting on his former club, clearing the line in 5 of 6 meetings with Washington this season, including 5 and 6 TB in the first two games of the current series. The matchup is juicy: against Nationals righty Michael Soroka, Soto owns a 600/714/1.200 slash in 14 career plate appearances (12 total bases, two extra-base hits). Soroka surrenders a 50% extra-base-hit rate to left-handed hitters, while Soto generates a 45% XBH clip versus righties, making a double or homer a realistic path to cash. Season-long hit-rate is only 42%, explaining the plus money, but the tout believes the recent surge, revenge narrative, and pitcher-batter history justify the play.

Kenny G said the Mets are worth laying the -250 or playing on the -1.5 run line because every matchup angle tilts their way. Washington limp in on a four-game skid and have scored 0-4-2-0-2-1 runs their last six contests. Their bullpen remains a disaster with a 5.77 ERA that has hovered in the bottom three all season. Starter Michael Soroka is coming off his best outing of the year (6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER vs Texas) but has failed to show that ceiling in any other start, and Kenny doubts he can repeat it against a Mets offense that ranks 8th in runs and 4th in OBP and has plated 5-5-13-8-4 runs its last five. Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.59 ERA) has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight, and New York is 4-1 in those games. Senga already handled Washington once (6 IP, 2 ER in late April). Add in an MLB-best 26-7 home record and the league’s second-best bullpen, and Kenny expects the Mets to win comfortably, noting they could "score eight runs on their own."