Guy Boston sees opportunity backing Kodai Senga today in the matchup against the Marlins. While acknowledging Senga hasn't consistently been outstanding this year, he feels Miami's offense lacks firepower and will likely struggle against Senga's pitching. He cautioned against large spreads (-250 full game moneyline) and even indicated some worry about the Mets' own offensive reliability early in games. Due to concerns such as weather factors—rain and wind blowing in—and Miami's subpar lineup, Guy Boston specifically suggested targeting the Marlins' team total under rather than relying on Mets' offense or a higher total.

Adam Rosenberg backed the under 6.5 Ks prop on Kodai Senga facing the Marlins, despite the pitcher recording 8 strikeouts against them in a previous start. Adam expects regression since Miami's hitters have recently seen Senga and could benefit from familiarity. Adam also noted Miami had an additional day to prepare due to a recent rain-out, potentially aiding their approach. Considering seven strikeouts is a high threshold, he believes the number presents good value at plus money odds.

Eric Lindquist expressed enthusiasm regarding Kodai Senga's strikeout potential against a Miami Marlins lineup prone to high strikeout rates. He explained that although Miami has shown periodic offensive strength with hitters like Griffin Conine and Matt Mervis, their collective contact issues (highlighted by a 41% strikeout rate for Mervis and elevated strikeout numbers for others in the lineup) would play right into Senga's high-K 'ghost forkball' pitch. Lindquist specifically called it one of his favorite pitches in MLB besides Shohei Ohtani's splitter, implying strong DFS appeal and potential betting volume on overs for Senga's strikeout props against the Marlins.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the under in the Marlins-Mets matchup, driven by consistent under trends: the Mets went under in seven of nine games this season and the Marlins posted a highly profitable 6-19-1 record to the under visiting NL East opponents last year. Kodai Senga has posted excellent results versus Miami historically (2.63 ERA, 33 strikeouts in five games). Given New York's pitching proficiency and Miami's shaky offensive showing, betting the under is firmly encouraged.

Cash Out Sports Picks is bullish on the Mets as favorites against Miami, mainly thanks to Kodai Senga, who boasts a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across five career appearances against the Marlins and recently limited them to just two earned runs. Miami struggles when visiting NL East teams, going 8-18 as road underdogs in those matchups last season. The Mets' pitching staff currently posts the lowest ERA in MLB, and Miami, forced into starting a fill-in pitcher, faces a tough matchup. Taking these factors into account, the Mets are the choice to win comfortably.

Data Skrive suggested the New York Mets moneyline (-249) against the Marlins and over 7 total runs as best bets. This is anchored by team performance thus far (Mets at 6-3 and Marlins at 5-4), specific pitching matchups and lineup strength, notably highlighting recent multi-homer outings by Matt Mervis for the Marlins as key reasoning on why the run total is likely to go over. Their suggestion offers clear actionable betting and DFS insight.

Malcolm Bamford favors the under in Miami versus New York, anchored in the Mets’ ongoing struggle to generate offense. Through nine games, the Mets have produced just 33 runs despite six wins, pointing directly to their ongoing issue of batting poorly with runners in scoring position. Bamford specifically recalls Kodai Senga effectively limiting Miami to two earned runs through eight strikeouts previously, alongside Connor Gillespie's similarly solid performance against the same opponent recently. Noting repeated low-scoring affairs between these teams, he foresees another tight, low-scoring contest, likely around 4-2, driven by solid starting pitching and continued Mets scoring inefficiencies.

Joe Pisapia sarcastically noted the Mets' home opener excitement alongside joking about ordering tiramisu in a helmet. Beneath the humor, Pisapia expressed subtle concern over the Mets offense, implying fantasy managers might want to temper expectations temporarily early on, as the team historically has shown inconsistent offense at home games. Especially for DFS or daily formats, caution is warranted until the Mets start showing reliable offensive production at home.

Joe Pisapia advised against trading Mark Vientos right now, describing this moment as trading at a low point in his value due to recent struggles. Instead, Pisapia suggested giving Vientos time to rebuild his value first, emphasizing that fantasy owners selling him now would be taking an unnecessary loss. Pisapia believed a short-term turnaround for Vientos is plausible and owners would be significantly better off riding out this difficult stretch before revisiting trade talks.

It's The Final Round expressed hesitation regarding Juan Soto versus Chris Bassitt due to Bassitt's extensive pitch arsenal. While Soto has been in good form with hits in six of his last seven games, the matchup poses concerns. Although Soto hits well against some of Bassitt's primary pitches (.387 vs sinker, .319 vs cutter), the difficulty lies in Bassitt's ability to throw potentially eight different pitches, complicating plate approach for Soto. The historical head-to-head numbers also temper optimism, with Soto only managing two hits in nine at-bats over three years (.222 avg). Thus, this matchup is currently designated only as a lean rather than a strong recommendation.

Dan Marcus considers Griffin Canning an intriguing bargain-priced DFS pitcher option at $6,800 on DraftKings due to recent adjustments. Canning refined his pitching arsenal with the Mets in the offseason and showed encouraging signs in a solid debut to the 2025 MLB season, making him a potentially strong value play on Saturday's slate.

With few attractive cheap pitching options on the slate, Dan Marcus identified Griffin Canning ($6,800) as an appealing low-priced arm. Marcus cites Canning's work refining his arsenal with the Mets this offseason, paired with a solid debut to the 2025 campaign. Canning stands out among bargain arms as a potential value play in DraftKings contests.

Joe Pisapia signaled concern for Clay Holmes after a shaky performance, emphasizing that his spring training success largely came throwing to catcher Francisco Alvarez, who pitchers reportedly prefer working with. Pisapia suspects changing catchers could be disrupting Holmes' rhythm, suggesting fantasy managers closely monitor Holmes' performance in the absence of Alvarez as it could influence Holmes' strikeout upside and overall fantasy reliability moving forward.

Despite Mark Vientos' recent 0-for-5 night, Joe Pisapia identified him as a prime buy-low target in fantasy leagues. Pisapia pointed out that even while Vientos struggled to get hits, he continued producing hard contact. Pisapia remains bullish on Vientos' season-long fantasy outlook, expecting a rebound and advising fantasy managers to capitalize on his slow start by acquiring him at a lower cost while they can.

Just A Bet Outside noted Starling Marte as another promising Mets bat against Kevin Gausman, given his strong career numbers against the Blue Jays pitcher. Marte has gone 8-for-13 with a home run in prior meetings against Gausman, implying comfort and consistent production in the matchup. This history suggests Marte is well-positioned as a valuable DFS option or hitter prop bet candidate when matched against Gausman.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Juan Soto as a strong hitter matchup against pitcher Kevin Gausman. Soto has an impressive career line against Gausman, going 8-for-15 with one home run. Beyond that impressive batting average, Soto has also managed to draw an incredible 12 walks versus Gausman, showcasing his strong plate discipline and his ability to get on base consistently in these matchups. Bettors and DFS players should strongly consider prioritizing Soto in lineups or betting scenarios when facing Gausman based on this strong historical performance.

It's The Final Round likes Juan Soto's opportunity against Kevin Gausman due to Soto's elite success against limited pitch types. Gausman primarily throws two pitches, simplifying Soto’s plate approach. Soto bats .339 versus four-seam fastballs (59% usage by Gausman), making Gausman's favorite pitch a favorable matchup. Although Gausman’s split-finger is strong (just a .162 average against), Final Round emphasizes Soto’s stellar history against Gausman (5-for-6, .833 average past three years). They caution Soto’s tendency to draw many walks, potentially limiting his hitting opportunities, but still strongly advise targeting Soto for betting and DFS plays, especially prop bets involving walks or on-base scenarios.

Joe Piapisa confidently called Juan Soto to homer, listed at appealing +380 odds, emphasizing this as his favorite home run pick for today. Although referencing his slow start to the homer contest, he humorously noted he's just giving others a head start, underscoring his faith in Soto's home run potential to get himself back on track. Joe clearly sees Soto as excellent betting value for today's slate.

Vaughn Dalzell identified Juan Soto as a prime value bet at +2800 odds to lead MLB in home runs. He cited Soto posting career-high power metrics, including a barrel rate peaking at 19.7% and a career-high 41 home runs last season. Dalzell stressed that Soto's high-profile move from the Yankees to the Mets, coupled with him entering his prime, sets the stage perfectly for another power breakthrough. Dalzell believes the motivational factor of switching New York teams and Soto's continuously improving metrics provide exceptional betting value here versus MVP odds.

Ron Romanelli renews his sharp criticism of the New York Mets' lofty win total, strongly recommending the under bet. Despite superstar Juan Soto's presence, he argues the rotation’s health and reliability remain major concerns—highlighting injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas and the frequent injury issues of Kodai Senga. He points to Clay Holmes as the questionable opening day starter, doubting his stamina and viability in a full-time starter role. He also expects regression from David Peterson and Tylor Megill, leaving the rotation vulnerable. Additionally, Romanelli believes the bullpen depth is shaky and susceptible to injuries, and views the offense as overly reliant on top-heavy production from players like Lindor, Soto, and Alonso. He predicts significant regression from Mark Vientos, and doubts that the lower half of the projected lineup consisting of players like Jesse Winker, Jose Siri, Brett Baty, and Luis Torrens can produce consistently, especially after losing Francisco Alvarez to injury. He also notes the Mets were fortunate last year going 28-16 in one-run games, likely predicting regression in close contests. Thus, he strongly advocates betting the Mets' win total under for 2025.

Ron Romanelli argues the New York Mets' lofty win total of roughly 91 is unjustified despite adding superstar Juan Soto. He spotlighted significant rotation concerns: injuries to frontline starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas severely diminish pitching depth and overall rotation quality. While Soto provides an offensive boost, Romanelli strongly believes the rotation issues constitute too big a risk, especially in a division as competitive as the NL East. He advises bettors to confidently take the Mets' win total under, pointing to inflated expectations misaligned from their actual pitching situation.

Guy Boston recommended cautiously fading Toronto's bats today, specifically citing their historical struggles against left-handed pitching. Facing off against left-hander David Peterson—who looked sharp in his first start against Miami with 9 strikeouts across six innings and only two solo home runs allowed—Guy viewed Toronto as vulnerable. Although he acknowledged Toronto having more power than Miami, he highlighted their persistent issues hitting lefties which made Peterson a particularly tough matchup. As such, he saw merit in under propositions involving Toronto hitters, especially early in the matchup while facing Peterson.

Kyle Purviance expressed strong interest in returning to Juan Soto's RBI props despite recent near misses, particularly highlighting the appealing plus 550 payout associated with Soto hitting two or more RBIs. He attributes his stance partly to his belief that Chris Bassett is overrated as a pitcher, suggesting he expects Soto to bounce back from recent umpire-influenced disappointments. Given Soto's consistent ability to generate opportunities, Purviance expects positive regression from these unlucky outcomes and identifies him as a good value proposition.

Dylan Rockford confidently chose the Mets money line (-124) as his lock play. His model has the Mets priced significantly higher (-140), creating value. Griffin Canning, despite historical volatility, showed promise in his first start. Rockford also mentioned the Mets' bullpen excellence (ranked second-best currently), solid recent offensive momentum, and a revenge factor against Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt, who previously pitched for New York. Given these multiple favorable factors, Rockford believes Mets have a strong edge and clear winning path at the current odds.

Dylan Rockford enthusiastically backed Pete Alonso as his home run pick against former teammate Chris Bassitt. Alonso has been performing impressively at the plate recently, and Rockford emphasized the added motivational factor going against an ex-teammate. Given Alonso's potent bat, recent hot streak, and familiarity with Bassitt, Rockford strongly supported the Mets slugger as a confident home run wager.

Dylan Rockford sees strong betting value in backing the Mets money line at -124, with his analytical models pricing the Mets closer to -140 favorites. Rockford liked Griffin Canning's first outing and praised the Mets' bullpen, currently second-best in MLB. Conversely, he expressed skepticism towards the Blue Jays' bullpen reliability and Chris Bassitt, who previously showed volatile performances during his time in New York. Given the Mets' improved recent offensive form highlighted by Pete Alonso's home run hitting, and their bullpen advantage, Rockford confidently backs the Mets at the current price.

Greg Peterson picks the Mets -122 and the over at 7.5 runs, given Griffin Canning's diminishing strikeout ability (career-low 6.8 K/9 last year, 5.19 ERA, and 1.6 HR/9). He’ll pitch against ex-teammate Chris Bassitt, who's been steady (3.82 ERA) since joining Toronto but faces the challenge of his team's shaky bullpen, the worst in the AL last year (4.82 ERA) and even worse to start this season (5.59 ERA). The Mets lineup, while absent Juan Soto this year, was still top-10 in runs per game during last season, setting up a potential high-scoring matchup.

Eric Lindquist highlights Sean Manaea as positioned favorably tonight thanks to the frigid conditions and wind blowing strongly in at Wrigley Field. Lindquist emphasizes weather conditions greatly impacting scoring at Wrigley are a primary consideration. He notes that Randy Vasquez, also pitching tonight, looked effective in his first outing with an exceptional 18.8% hard-hit rate allowed. But it is Manaea specifically who Lindquist expects to thrive in tonight's harsh conditions, creating a promising scenario for pitching success.

Luis Torrens is highlighted by the Dimers model as a valuable prop bet to record an RBI against the Blue Jays. Torrens has a projected 28.7% probability of getting an RBI, which provides a significant betting edge of 2.1% given his current odds at +275. This value indicates that the betting market is likely underestimating Torrens' chances, offering potential positive returns for savvy bettors.

Dimers identified Mark Vientos to record an RBI as a strong prop bet with positive expected value. Their model projects Vientos with a 37.4% probability of recording an RBI, giving this prop an edge of 2.4% based on current odds of +185. This suggests the market is undervaluing Vientos' opportunity for offensive production, making this bet appealing for bettors seeking positive expected value.

Despite Mets' recent offensive struggles, Dylan Rockford expects the team to finally perform well offensively against Toronto. He acknowledged the Mets inconsistency thus far—hitting under .200—but cited confidence specifically in Juan Soto leading a bounce-back series. Though Rockford shared positive views towards Kevin Gausman for Toronto, Soto's potential big series is the key factor in predicting Mets success and recommending them as a betting play, combined with his recommendation of the full game under eight runs.

Data Skrive calls attention to Pete Alonso as a standout DFS option and season-long fantasy play against Toronto this Friday. Alonso currently leads the Mets with eight RBI—eighth-best across MLB—and has connected for two home runs this season. He's hitting at a solid .286 batting average and has shown clutch ability early, notably delivering a recent three-run homer against Miami. Given his strong output thus far, his prominent role in the Mets lineup, plus a favorable home environment at Citi Field to capitalize on opposing pitching, Alonso offers attractive DFS upside in this matchup.

Data Skrive identifies Mets' Brandon Nimmo as a tantalizing prop bet to homer at very appealing +600 odds. Nimmo's powerful start—with 2 home runs through 6 games, a strong 33.3% home run rate—makes him a fantastic bet to continue his hot streak versus Blue Jays pitching.

NBC Sports Bet's projection strongly suggests taking the Mets to cover the run line of -1.5 against the Blue Jays. Supporting factors include the strong pitching start for Tylor Megill, who posted a 1.80 ERA in his first outing of the season, and a strong Mets pitching staff that currently has a 2.38 team ERA—significantly better than Toronto's 4.43. Although New York has struggled offensively (.188 team batting average), Pete Alonso's recent four-RBI game indicates their key hitter is heating up. With the Mets playing at home and their ace Megill on the mound, NBC Sports Bet sees value in backing the Mets on the run line rather than the moneyline.

Data Skrive's analysis predicts a home victory for the Mets against the Blue Jays. New York is slightly favored at -133, while Toronto is a minor underdog at +112. The model strongly points toward a low-scoring game at Citi Field, leaning toward the total run tally staying under 7.5.

Greg Peterson sees value backing the Mets at -132 and betting the over 7.5 runs (handicapped line: Mets -147, total 8.2) against the Blue Jays. Peterson notes Mets' pitcher Tylor Megill had a solid opening start (one run allowed in five innings versus Astros), though his career numbers (4.52 ERA, 1.4 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9) leave room for concern and opportunities for more scoring. On the Blue Jays' side, Kevin Gausman's notable 2024 drop in strikeouts (to 8.1 K/9) and a 3.83 ERA indicate vulnerability. With both starters having underlying question marks, Peterson likes both the Mets' moneyline and a higher-scoring contest.

DraftCheat eagerly endorses stacking Mets hitters against Marlins pitcher Connor Gillespie, who he views skeptically after an average first outing. Noting the Mets' expensive salaries, he believes they could dominate Gillespie and Miami's ineffective bullpen strongly and quickly. Despite their ballpark being traditionally pitcher-friendly, DraftCheat has observed increased home run frequency early this season, further boosting his endorsement of premium power hitters like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos.

Bettor Mark highlighted potential sneaky value on the Marlins as significant underdogs (+200 moneyline and plus runs), despite ultimately not betting himself. He voiced notable skepticism regarding Mets pitcher Clay Holmes, openly not being a big fan of his abilities. While Mark admitted the Mets' bats appear to be waking up, he still noted Miami's sneaky appeal to stay competitive or even upset New York. The plus-money line for Marlins offers intriguing upside versus a heavily overpriced Mets team that Mark warns might struggle unexpectedly. However, due to conflicting factors and unpredictability around Connor Gillespie's matchup, he ultimately recommend staying away, even though he clearly expressed a lean favoring Miami's side at juicy odds.

Just a Bet Outside recommended taking Mets minus one and a half runs against the Marlins, largely due to pitcher Clay Holmes. They noted Holmes' transition from reliever back to starter—highlighting his nasty pitch arsenal and a promising MLB debut allowing only two earned runs versus a strong Houston lineup despite some control issues (four walks). They believe Holmes will improve his command quickly given his previous starter experience in college. Further support comes from a mismatch against Marlins' Connor Gillespie, who has pitched just 13 MLB innings total, struggled in his first start against the weak Pirates lineup (walking four and giving up three runs), and was recently hit hard (six earned runs) by the Mets in spring training. Additionally, the Mets have a significantly deeper and stronger bullpen—another advantage cited by the tout. They emphasized that after Marlins just winning Game 2, the Mets will feel urgency to win this series, making the Mets run line (-1.5) bet particularly attractive in this scenario.

Dana Lane recommended betting the New York Mets on the run line (-1.5) at +114 against the Miami Marlins on April 1, citing multiple reasons to back the Mets. He highlighted pitcher Kodai Senga's excellent 13-7 season in 2024 with a 2.99 ERA and 211 strikeouts over 171.2 innings, and a strong spring training performance that indicates he's ready again. Lane expressed skepticism about Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara's long-term effectiveness coming off Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss 2024, noting Alcantara started losing command after three innings against a weaker Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. Lane saw the Marlins overall as one of MLB's bottom teams, with a weak bullpen and severe lack of offensive star power beyond Otto Lopez. Given the Mets' recent 10-4 blowout win over Miami and improved hitting from Pete Alonso and Starling Marte, Lane is bullish on a Mets run line play, expecting another comfortable win.

Drew Martin highlighted Pete Alonso's impressive history at LoanDepot Park, making him an excellent player prop option. Alonso boasts 12 career home runs and an OPS exceeding .900 in Miami's home stadium. Given his strong splits and past success in the stadium, he stands out as a valuable target for player props in this matchup against the Marlins.

Just a Bet Outside cautioned about Pete Alonso's difficult matchup versus elite pitcher Sandy Alcantara, highlighting Alonso's struggles going 5-for-32 with 8 strikeouts in previous at-bats against Alcantara. Given Sandy's reputation as an elite pitcher and Alonso's documented issues facing him historically, it's recommended to avoid Alonso today in fantasy or prop betting.

JD Bets highlighted David Peterson as quietly effective last season, putting up an impressive 10-3 record with a 2.90 ERA despite flying under the national radar. He specifically noted Miami's poor historical performance against left-handed pitching, further supporting Peterson in this matchup. JD pointed to Peterson's low earned runs average of 1.8 per game last season as highly reliable, implying Peterson should have a solid outing and mentioning he would likely place the Mets' money line as part of his betting card because of Peterson's consistency.

Scott Reichel expects a strong rebound game from the Mets, laying the -1.5 run line against the Marlins. He emphasizes the Mets just faced a difficult series against Houston where they came up short narrowly, leaving them motivated or 'pissed off.' Reichel downplays Miami's early success, asserting their wins came against a weak Pirates team, thus inflating their current standing. Scott specifically prefers Mets starter David Peterson over Marlins starter Cal Quantrill, who struggled notably last year in Colorado. Betting especially against Miami's unreliable bullpen, Scott feels confident the Mets win decisively here.

Dylan Rockford is strongly fading his own team, the Mets, citing they're significantly overpriced at around -165 against Miami. Dylan made his own number closer to around -135 and emphasized the Mets' poor offensive performance in their series against Houston. He highlighted the Marlins' success offensively in their opening series against the Pirates, despite Pittsburgh's struggles. David Peterson historically struggles against the Marlins, who bat .350 against him, making this matchup unfavorable for the Mets' starter. He acknowledged positives like Juan Soto's bat and bullpen stability but definitively advised bettors to grab the Marlins' money line value at +145.

Eric Lindquist pointed toward a favorable pitching matchup for the Mets, specifically lauding lefty David Peterson for his solid skill set. Conversely, he emphasized fading Cal Quantrill, recalling repeatedly targeting him in past Cleveland starts. Lindquist indicated a distinct talent gap here, hinting Peterson has league-average or better potential, whereas Quantrill represents vulnerability. While not directly locking in a bet, Lindquist's analysis strongly suggests considering Mets-focused bets, particularly as pitching matchups become critical early in the season.

Just a Bet Outside likes the Mets run line (-1.5) against the Marlins, citing strong regression indicators for Miami, who went 3-1 in their opening series despite each victory coming by a single run. The Marlins benefited from multiple fortunate defensive plays like throwing runners out at home and robbing home runs. Meanwhile, the Mets dropped 2 of 3 games against a strong Astros team, largely in low-scoring affairs. The Mets offense is due for a breakout, and the pitching matchup heavily favors New York, with David Peterson (2.90 ERA last season) facing Cal Quantrill, who Just a Bet Outside described as a 'Christmas tree alert'—likely to get lit up. Additionally, the Mets bullpen had rest yesterday while Miami's bullpen is notably tired from heavy usage. As a result, Just a Bet Outside sees clear value in taking Mets -1.5 runs at plus money.

Bettor Mark recommended betting the Mets -1.5 runs on the run line against the Marlins, noting Miami has been lucky and playing above their true ability early this season. He praised David Peterson as one of the Mets' best pitchers from 2024, predicting a strong performance shutting down Miami's hot start. With the Mets off to an extremely poor hitting start (.136 team average), he expects a meaningful offensive breakout behind Peterson, confidently taking Mets -1.5 at minus 105 odds as one of his best bets of the day.

Bill Harrelson advises betting Pete Alonso to not score a run versus Miami based on strong statistical backing. Alonso hasn't scored yet this season, was held scoreless in eight of his last ten, and hit this under in 14 of the last 20 games overall (70%). Historically against the Marlins, Alonso hasn't scored in nine of his last thirteen matchups (69%). Against Marlins pitcher Cal Quantrill specifically, Alonso has struggled, batting only .167 across six plate appearances since 2018 with just one hit.

Daniel Lewis recommends betting the Mets to win at plus-money (+105) against Houston, largely due to facing Astros' starter Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti struggled last season, going 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and notably ranking poorly with his 21st percentile walk rate. Given the limited offensive production in the first two matchups of this series, Mets hitters should exploit Arrighetti's shaky control, presenting value on New York's moneyline.