Bill Harrelson backed Giancarlo Stanton to RECORD A HIT OR WALK (PrizePicks "to get on base") against Miami. Stanton has reached safely in nine of his last ten games and in eight straight, averaging 2.1 total bases during the streak. He has cleared this prop in 17 of his last 19 contests overall and is 5-for-5 getting on base versus the Marlins since the start of 2024, producing four-plus total bases in four of those games. In 2025 he has reached in 26 of 34 appearances (76% hit rate) and is batting .267, a number Harrelson noted jumps nearly 10 points when the slugger faces right-handed pitching—the matchup he draws Sunday. Despite the strong trend, the on-base prop is still near even money across the market, making it Harrelson’s favorite play in Yankees-Marlins.

Calling it the “pound-the-alarm fish game,” The Bettor Mark made Miami +108 his best bet. He stressed that the Yankees are a heavily public side yet are barely favored despite sending Luis Gil — whom he labeled a great young rookie making his first appearance back — to the mound. Mark prefers fading pitchers in that exact circumstance and pointed out that Edward Cabrera has been perfectly serviceable for Miami. The Marlins have already taken the first two games of the series 13-12 and 2-0 and are 8-3 in their last 11 at home, so he is happy to grab plus money in a clear contrarian spot.

Drew Martin said to bet the Miami Marlins moneyline behind Edward Cabrera, noting the 27-year-old has fired consecutive six-inning, one-run outings while touching the upper-90s. Cabrera's form gives Miami a clear starting-pitching edge over Luis Gil, who is making his first big-league start of 2025 after a 60-day IL stint and never topped four frames in four rehab turns between AA Somerset and AAA Scranton. Martin added that, despite an expected Yankee-fan takeover in South Florida, the Marlins have been playing better since the deadline and should be attractively priced at home.

Kenny G said he is "shading toward the Marlins" at +143 because the Yankees’ late-inning issues remain unresolved and Carlos Rodon’s command has wobbled (five walks vs Toronto, 3.18 ERA masking a 3.9 BB/9 over his last three). New York’s bullpen owns a 4.19 ERA since the break, and the club is only 26-27 on the road despite ranking third in runs and second in OBP. Miami counters with Jansen Junk, who had been on a heater before a pair of human outings (5 IP, 3 ER versus Milwaukee last start). Kenny noted the Fish pen has improved to 3.95 ERA in July and loanDepot Park’s spacious dimensions help them lean on run prevention. The Marlins are 32-21 to the under at home, suggesting their pitching keeps them in games, and Kenny believes the generous plus price offsets concerns about an offense that sits 20th in runs. In short, this is a classic home-dog value play against an overrated brand name and leaky bullpen.

Guy Boston Sports grabbed Jazz Chisholm Jr. over 0.5 hits at ‑250 on FanDuel for leg three. Chisholm has a 63% season hit rate (0.88 per game) and has cashed six of his last ten overall. Away from Yankee Stadium he is even better, exceeding the mark in eight of his last ten road games with an even one hit per contest. The matchup is juicy: Marlins right-hander Jansen Junk is surrendering a .305 average and .356 BABIP to left-handed hitters. Junk relies on his slider 43.2% of the time; Chisholm’s wOBA versus sliders is a playable .294 while he mashes every other pitch type (fastball .362, curveball .508, changeup .358). Over the past month Chisholm has posted a .290 average and 1.034 OPS against righties, and the Miami bullpen grades poorly behind Junk. Returning to Miami for the first time since last year’s trade, the tout expects at least one hit.

B Wade backed Carlos Rodon to stay under 5.5 hits allowed. The left-hander has topped that number only three times all season and typically strings together several unders before another over appears. Miami ranks top-10 in hits on the year, but over the last three games they have managed just six total hits per contest—and that is team wide, not versus the starter alone. Wade thinks the sputtering Marlins offense will struggle to reach six knocks off Rodon, keeping the southpaw’s hit column at five or fewer.