56 Taeks
Active
Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Trustworthy pitching matchup and struggling Braves offense favors Marlins

Guy Boston recommended taking Miami at plus money (+135) primarily due to Sandy Alcantara's history of success against the Braves combined with Atlanta's severe offensive struggles early in the season. Atlanta has scored one or fewer runs in five of their first nine games, including being shut out multiple times. Alcantara holds impressive historical numbers against the Braves lineup, including a low .210 expected batting average, .258 expected wOBA, a near 30% strikeout rate, and just a 5% walk rate. Although Guy acknowledged worries that the Braves lineup, filled with talent, will eventually turn it around offensively, he thinks the current form heavily favors Alcantara. Poor weather conditions, including rain, also reinforce his preference for an underdog pitching advantage with Miami at strong odds.

Active
Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Valuable underdog based on streak betting strategy

Eric Pathi recommended backing the Miami Marlins as underdogs in their next game against Atlanta if they win the current matchup. He outlined a betting system based on betting underdogs that win a big upset matchup in their following game, theorizing that casual bettors often mistakenly go back to the favorites, assuming they won't lose consecutive games—thus offering clear value on previously victorious underdogs. Pathi emphasized the role streaks play in baseball betting to maximize profits, referencing current streak examples including wins by San Francisco (5), Philadelphia (4), Milwaukee (4), Boston (3), Texas (3), and losses by teams like Colorado (5), Cincinnati (4), Washington (4), White Sox (3), and Baltimore (3). Based on this analysis and streak theory, he advocates confidently betting Miami again in their subsequent meeting.

Active
Negative Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Likely under pitching innings limit; take strikeouts under

Matt Perrault recommended taking the under 5.5 strikeouts prop for Sandy Alcantara against Atlanta. Despite Alcantara's ability to generate strikeouts, the Marlins have been strictly managing his innings early this season as he's returning from Tommy John surgery. He pitched only 5 innings against the Mets and 5.2 innings against the Pirates so far this year, highlighting Miami's cautious usage. Given this early-season approach, he is unlikely to pitch deep enough into the game to amass six or more strikeouts today against the Braves.

Positive Taek
Otto Lopez: Early power surge unsustainable but speed adds waiver value
11 days ago

Mike Maer recommended targeting Otto Lopez on waiver wires, particularly if managers need short-term middle infield help. Lopez currently sits around 46% rostered, according to consensus metrics. Maer warned Lopez's unexpected early power surge likely won't last, but stressed Lopez's steady batting average and reliable stolen base potential make him worth rostering while he's hot. Acknowledging Lopez may not become a season-long hold, Maer sees him as a solid short-term waiver addition offering immediate, much-needed stolen base assistance from the middle infield position.

Positive Taek
Kyle Stowers: Appealing cheap DFS hitter in favorable lineup spot
11 days ago

Dan Marcus identifies Kyle Stowers as a top budget-friendly DFS hitter on DraftKings for Saturday's slate. At just $2,700, Stowers has consistently hit second in the batting order against right-handed pitchers and has shown solid extra-base ability (.497 xSLG) and the versatility to score DFS points in various ways. He faces AJ Smith-Shawver, whom Marcus notes has yet to establish himself as anything better than a below-average MLB pitcher, further enriching Stowers' appeal.

Positive Taek
Kyle Stowers: Affordable option batting high in order versus suspect pitcher
11 days ago

At an enticing $2,700 on DraftKings, Dan Marcus backs Kyle Stowers as a strong DFS value play. Stowers typically bats second against right-handed pitching, showcasing a blend of power (.497 xSLG) and on-base ability. Facing AJ Smith-Shawver, who has yet to establish himself as more than a mediocre MLB pitcher, Stowers represents affordable upside in DFS lineups.

Positive Taek
Otto Lopez: Short-term add for batting average and steals
12 days ago

Chris Welsh suggests adding Miami Marlins infielder Otto Lopez as a short-term pickup if you're struggling at middle infield. Lopez is currently off to a strong start, hitting .340 with a .406 OBP. While power isn't part of his profile, he's providing solid contact, batting third or fourth in Miami's lineup. Lopez has excellent plate discipline, walking about 10% and striking out less than 10% of the time. However, Welsh cautioned that fantasy managers shouldn't expect significant power or counting stats, projecting single-digit home runs and modest stolen base totals at best. Overall, Lopez is primarily useful as a temporary category booster for batting average, runs, and steals rather than long-term upside, particularly valuable in roto and head-to-head category leagues.

Positive Taek
Griffin Conine: Steady hitting streak makes over attractive

B Wade is bullish on Griffin Conine recording at least one hit. Conine has improved significantly at the plate this year, currently riding a hot streak with hits in four consecutive games. He's notched at least one hit in 11 of 16 contests this season and 8 of 11 home games—including his last five straight home appearances. Although Conine faces Brandon Pfaadt, who is solid with a 3.5 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this season, B Wade believes Conine's strong recent performance and home-field advantage are enough to comfortably predict him getting a hit.

Negative Taek
Max Meyer: Expect regression with hits allowed against strong Arizona offense

Guy Boston sees value betting Max Meyer over 4.5 hits allowed versus Arizona. Despite acknowledging Meyer's solid start to the season, even in those strong performances, Meyer has frequently allowed multiple hits over long outings of five to six innings per game. Arizona's potent offense ranks near the top of MLB in most categories against right-handed pitching, including batting average (.270), OPS (.852), ISO (.226), and slugging percentage (nearly .500). Though cautious about Meyer's effective slider potentially neutralizing some Arizona hitters, Boston expects enough baserunners given Meyer's consistent innings workload and Arizona's combination of strong hitter profiles.

PHA
o4.5 (-140)
Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Back Marlins due to Mayor's consistent pitching form

Cash Out Sports Picks is high on Miami Marlins money line, citing Mayor's reliable pitching. Mayor has been Miami's innings leader, showcasing dominant form recently by limiting the Mets to just two hits over six innings his last time out. Additionally, Miami batter Mervis has started to heat up, giving the offense more consistency. Arizona's starter, Brandon Pfaadt, has struggled earlier in the month, allowing three home runs in one appearance against the Nationals. Miami comes into this matchup hot and positioned to capitalize if Arizona continues to be inconsistent offensively and pitching-wise.

MIA ML
+125
Negative Taek
Max Meyer: Pitching matchup favorable for offensive breakout

Just A Bet Outside expects Max Meyer to regress against Arizona, despite a promising start to his season. Meyer has faced weaker offenses like Pittsburgh, the struggling Mets, and Braves. Arizona is a major step up, ranking third best in wRC+ and fifth best batting average against righties, along with the lowest K rate. The Diamondbacks were also the highest scoring team in the league last year and remain top-tier offensively. Just A Bet Outside believes Meyer will give up several runs and face reality against this potent lineup in a hitter-friendly Miami environment.

Pitch ER
o2.5 (+120)
Negative Taek
Max Meyer: Cautiously fading pitcher despite solid early results

Despite Max Meyer's impressive start to the year (2.00 ERA with strong performances against the Mets, Braves, Pirates), Kenny G expresses skepticism about Meyer's potential success against the potent Diamondbacks lineup. While acknowledging Meyer's talent and early form, Kenny highlights that Arizona's offense could be much tougher than Miami's previous opponents. Ultimately, he doubts Meyer's ability to maintain his form in this matchup, leaning towards a Diamondbacks win despite hesitating due to the price.

ARI ML
-145
Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Strong matchup points to offensive production

Just A Bet Outside gave a strong endorsement to the Miami Marlins team total over 3.5 runs at -104 odds vs the Arizona Diamondbacks. He pointed out that despite appearances, the Marlins' offense has quietly been productive, going over 3.5 runs in 11 of their first 15 games, averaging 4.33 runs per game. Moreover, they've exceeded this total in eight of their first 10 home games, averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. He specifically praised the top of the lineup performers like Xavier Edwards and Griffin Conine, who have set the tone offensively. Just A Bet Outside believes the Marlins will once again clear the 3.5 run total comfortably.

MIA Team Total
o4.5 (+525)
Negative Taek
Cal Quantrill: Likely regression coming after anomalous shutout

B Wade strongly advocates betting on Cal Quantrill allowing more than 1.5 earned runs. Quantrill has conceded at least two earned runs in 17 of his last 20 games, recently being an anomaly by shutting out the Braves. Wade points out that Quantrill had an extremely poor opening performance this year, allowing six earned runs against the Mets, and asserts the shutout game against struggling Atlanta was not indicative of his actual skill level. Last season Quantrill allowed 3 and then 2 earned runs in two starts against the Nationals, who Wade notes have improved offensively this year. He highlights that Washington ranks around the middle in MLB scoring, ahead of teams like the Phillies, Orioles, and Blue Jays.

Pitch ER
o2.5 (+105)
Positive Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Likely to limit walks due to zone control and Nationals' chase rate

Javan Shouey recommended betting under 1.5 walks for Sandy Alcantara in his upcoming start against the Nationals. Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner, showed elite control historically with walk rates of 6.3%, 5.6%, and 6.0% in his past three healthy seasons and is projected near 6% again this year. Despite issuing 4 walks against the Pirates in his first outing this year after missing the 2024 season due to injury, Alcantara bounced back strongly with 0 walks over 5 innings against the Mets, maintaining a 54.3% zone rate. Shouey emphasized that the Nationals, while mid-league in walk rate (9.9%), align poorly against Alcantara's control-oriented pitching approach, given their third-highest chase rate and surprisingly low swing rate on strikes, predicting Alcantara will consistently pound the zone and keep walks under control.

Pitcher Walk
u1.5 (-118)
Negative Taek
Miami Marlins: Marlins projected for low-scoring matchup

DS Betting recommended betting the 'under' in the Marlins vs Nationals matchup due to Miami's continued offensive struggles and Washington's solid home pitching numbers. Miami has managed just 2.7 runs per game over their past ten, while Nationals Park has played significantly pitcher-friendly recently, particularly on cooler April evenings where run scoring has been noticeably suppressed.

Game Total
u8.5 (+160)
Positive Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Efficient trending pitcher supports first five bet

Lonte Smith endorsed betting Miami in the first five innings, primarily due to Sandy Alcantara's improving efficiency and recent strong performances. Alcantara significantly improved pitch economy in his most recent start, using just 70 pitches through five innings compared to 91 pitches in 4.2 innings previously. Over his two starts, he's allowed just two combined earned runs and five hits, looking closer to his Cy Young contender form from the past. Smith explicitly wants to avoid backing Miami's unreliable bullpen, justifying the first-five innings wager despite acknowledging the Nationals’ recent success against Miami historically, winning eight of their last ten matchups.

MIA F5 ML
-150
Positive Taek
Max Meyer: High upside waiver add due to elite strikeout ability

Mike Maher strongly endorsed picking up Max Meyer off of waivers, highlighting his impressive early-season strikeout totals and excellent prospect pedigree. Meyer, available in over 70% of Yahoo leagues and 85% of ESPN leagues, has posted 19 strikeouts with a 2.00 ERA across just 18 innings to start the season. Maher was especially encouraged by Meyer's solid underlying numbers supporting the hot start, noting that while playing for Miami may limit wins, Meyer's individual talent and strikeout upside make him a valuable addition, especially with widespread pitcher injuries early in the year.

Positive Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Grab Alcantara strikeout overs vs strikeout-prone Nationals

Brian Howard signaled interest in taking Sandy Alcantara's over on strikeouts against the Nationals, noting how Washington has historically been low in strikeouts but their rate has significantly increased this season. Alcantara's prop line is anticipated at six and a half, which Brian strongly recommends if offered at plus money, seeing it as a great strikeout spot.

Ks
o6 (+135)
Positive Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Back Marlins behind Alcantaras dominant pitching vs Nationals

Cash Out Sports Picks strongly recommends Miami Marlins on the Money Line, highlighting the advantage Sandy Alcantara provides with his reliable deep-game capabilities and effectiveness. Alcantara has given up just four runs in his first two starts and owns a strong historical record against the Nationals lineup. Meanwhile, the Nationals are struggling against right-handed pitchers and bullpen troubles have frequently surfaced throughout their season. Trevor Williams, whose recent performances against Miami have been poor, provides even more confidence in siding with the Marlins for this matchup.

MIA ML
-140
Positive Taek
Edward Cabrera: Back Cabrera vs Nationals despite walk concerns

Sean Zerillo advised taking the Marlins' moneyline if Edward Cabrera is confirmed as the starter against the Nationals. Zerillo prefers Cabrera (100 Stuff+ rating) despite acknowledging his serious control concerns and frequent struggles with walks. However, Cabrera recently displayed improved command, producing two dominant rehab starts with nine strikeouts and zero walks. Zerillo noted that Mitch Parker, the Nationals' pitcher, has significantly worse Stuff+ (79) although better control. Given these conditions, Zerillo believes betting Miami at even money or better is valuable, projecting fair odds near -120. Both bullpens involved are below average, but Zerillo slightly edges Miami as the better overall team in this matchup.

MIA ML
-105
Positive Taek
Cal Quantrill: Cal Quantrill likely stable despite shaky early-season outings

Kenny G expects Miami starter Cal Quantrill to perform respectably despite his shaky 6.00 ERA start. Though Quantrill struggled versus the Mets, he bounced back impressively at Atlanta, pitching five shutout innings with four strikeouts. Kenny doesn't anticipate Quantrill getting 'destroyed' by a Nationals lineup he describes positively but admits is still average (15th in runs, 15th batting average). Given Quantrill’s proven upside against the Braves and a manageable matchup, Kenny leans towards playing the under eight and a half total, expecting solid pitching from Quantrill.

Game Total
u8 (-102)
Positive Taek
Max Meyer: Pitch-mix adjustments support true breakout potential

Ryan Wormeli considers Max Meyer's hot start legitimate due to noticeable adjustments in pitch usage. Meyer notably reduced reliance on his four-seam fastball (24% down from nearly 40%) while incorporating sliders, sinkers, and change-ups more diversely. This diversified pitch mix has potentially enhanced his overall effectiveness and improved underlying metrics early in 2024. Wormeli highlighted Meyer's high draft pedigree and past hype as key reasons to believe in sustained breakout potential, despite mild concerns about elevated allowed exit velocity (93.5 mph).

Positive Taek
Jesús Luzardo: Strikeout prop offers value given current dominance

Just A Bet Outside likes Jesus Luzardo's strikeout prop over 5.5 Ks despite the juice. Luzardo has recorded eight and eleven strikeouts in two impressive performances against the Dodgers and Nationals, giving up only two earned runs and seven total hits in 12 innings. The analyst emphasizes that while the Braves rank 22nd in strikeout rate against lefties, their overall struggles—batting just .155 against left-handed pitching, and ranking 25th in WRC+—indicate an excellent opportunity for Luzardo to pitch deep into the game, enhancing his strikeout upside. Thus, Luzardo reaching at least six strikeouts is likely.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Worth the plus money first five bet versus overpriced Mets

Guy Boston advocated for taking the Miami Marlins on the first five innings money line today versus the New York Mets, primarily due to an overpriced (-240) line on the Mets. Although both bullpens look overworked from recent outings, Boston slightly prefers Miami first-five to avoid bullpen uncertainties. Max Meyer's slider-heavy approach strongly limits Mets hitters who struggle against sliders—a significant factor bolstering Miami's chances early in the game. While both starting pitchers—Tylor Megill and Max Meyer—lack strong reliability, Meyer's pitch arsenal provides an edge early enough to endorse a Miami first-five money line bet at favorable odds.

Negative Taek
Miami Marlins: Recommendation to avoid hitters facing Mets pitchers

ESPN Fantasy strongly suggests avoiding Marlins hitters facing New York Mets pitchers in Wednesday's matchup. Citi Field ranks poorly as a hitting environment (graded 'F'), with additional negative factors including a dominant Mets bullpen (graded 'B'), considerable adverse weather effects ('F' for temperature), and defensive advantages through Mets' catcher framing proficiency ('B'). Altogether, these factors would result in the average Marlins RHB posting a mere .272 wOBA, positioning Marlins hitters as risky, low-upside fantasy plays today.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Compelling underdog value in tough pitching matchup

Just A Bet Outside advised betting on the Marlins money line at +185 as a high-value underdog, highlighting several key points. Firstly, he mentioned it's difficult for teams to secure a sweep, as the Mets have already won the first two games of the series. He outlined that pitching matchups between Miami's Max Meyer and New York's Tylor Megill are closer than odds suggest. Meyer has performed well thus far, collecting 15 strikeouts through 11.2 innings and maintaining a solid 3.00 ERA. Conversely, Megill, despite his strong start, has demonstrated sustained mediocrity in recent seasons with ERAs consistently over 4.50, signaling that regression is expected soon. Furthermore, the analyst elaborated that the Mets offense has been inconsistent outside Pete Alonso, citing struggles from Mark Vientos (batting just .114), Brett Baty (.095), and Brandon Nimmo (.211). JABO believes the early start getaway game's unpredictability coupled with the inflated money line provides considerable betting value behind an evenly matched pitching contest.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Strong potential to cover the run line

Stats Insider highlighted betting on the Marlins +1.5 run line at odds of $1.94 from TAB. Even though the simulation shows equal likelihood (50%) of covering this spread, their model perceives value in the current odds and recommends making this wager for long-term betting success. The recommendation is based on extensive statistical modeling to determine reliable betting edges.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Value bet as significant undervalued underdog

Stats Insider recommended betting on the Miami Marlins despite their lesser likelihood of winning outright (30% chance). They identify significant betting value given the high odds currently at $3.32 from TAB, indicating the odds undervalue Miami's chances compared to their modeled probabilities. This prediction is based on simulations run 10,000 times using robust statistical modeling and analytics. Stats Insider sees a meaningful discrepancy between projected probabilities and bookmaker odds, making the Marlins a recommended underdog wager at these attractive odds.

Positive Taek
Max Meyer: Room for strikeout upside despite tough matchup

Dan Palyo recommended taking Max Meyer over 5.5 strikeouts, emphasizing Meyer's excellent start to the season (28.8% K-rate and just a 5.8% walk rate, alongside a strong 13% swinging-strike rate). Meyer has consistently logged over 90 pitches and cleared 6 strikeouts in each of his first two starts. Palyo acknowledged the challenging scenario against the Mets, a team with sub-20% strikeout rate versus right-handers and good plate discipline, but believes the pricing represents excellent value considering Meyer's talent and early success.

Negative Taek
Max Meyer: Expect struggles against Mets lineup

Michael Savio is recommending betting the total to go over 7 runs in the Marlins vs Mets game, noting that Max Meyer's performance thus far in the season is misleading. Meyer has had success against weaker lineup opponents but has struggled notably against the Mets historically. Last year at Citi Field, Meyer lasted only four innings, conceding four runs on a .353 Mets batting average. The Mets have recently shown improved offense scoring 10 runs in yesterday's matchup, and the expectation is Meyer will struggle similarly tonight against their rejuvenated bats.

Negative Taek
Max Meyer: Bet over due to Marlins' struggling pitcher and Megill control issues

Greg Peterson likes the over on the Marlins vs Mets total of 7 runs, pointing clearly to the unreliable pitching matchup. Miami's Max Meyer has allowed at least three runs in nine of his last ten starts dating back to 2024, owning an inflated career ERA (5.42) and FIP (5.44). While Mets pitcher Tylor Megill has started 2025 strong, surrendering only a single run across two starts, Peterson is unconvinced due to Megill's ongoing control issues—he has maintained a troubling 3.5 BB/9 pace this season, in line with a career 3.4 BB/9 and a middling 4.34 FIP. Given these pitchers' issues, Peterson projects a higher-scoring game, handicapping the total at 8.3 runs well above the 7-run setting.

Positive Taek
Jazz Chisholm: High upside HR prop due to Comerica Park configuration

Derek Carty's model identified Jazz Chisholm Jr. as a valuable home run prop bet (+1200), projecting an 8% likelihood and a favorable $9.20 EV. Comerica Park's notably low average fence height was highlighted as a key indicator enhancing Chisholm's HR potential in this contest.

Negative Taek
Cal Quantrill: Over looks strong with Quantrill pitching poorly and hot offenses

Dylan Rockford liked the over (8 runs) in the Marlins-Braves matchup, primarily due to continuing struggles from Miami's Cal Quantrill. Despite acknowledging Quantrill's vulnerability (he gave up six runs in four innings against the Mets), Rockford also believes Miami can put some runs up on Braves starter AJ Smith, whom he described as merely okay—neither good nor bad. Dylan mentioned the Marlins being notably feisty offensively early in the season. Given both teams' potential run production and Quantrill's persistent struggles, Rockford saw clear value betting the over rather than picking a side.

Negative Taek
Cal Quantrill: Fade struggling Quantrill and support Braves run line

Scott Reichel strongly advised betting the Braves on the run line (-1.5) due to his persistent fade of Marlins starter Cal Quantrill. Quantrill was demolished by the Mets in his first outing (allowing six runs in four innings), and Reichel has lingering skepticism of his overall ability. Despite the Braves' winless start (due largely to facing top-tier teams Dodgers and Padres), he feels a significant performance turnaround is imminent against an inferior Marlins squad. He sees this as a prime spot for Atlanta's powerful lineup to rebound convincingly, expecting comfortable run line coverage at plus-money value.

Positive Taek
Max Meyer: Undervalued Meyer makes Marlins attractive big underdog

Drew Martin likes the Miami Marlins at nearly +200 against the Braves, largely due to pitcher Max Meyer being undervalued. Martin explained Meyer, a powerful prospect capable of throwing in the upper 90s, recently went 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts and just one earned run against Pittsburgh. On the other side, the Braves are winless (0-7), feature one of MLB's coldest lineups (ranked 29 by OPS), and have a shaky bullpen. With the Marlins owning both the hotter lineup and better bullpen statistics early this season, Martin sees substantial value taking Miami as big underdogs at +197.

Positive Taek
Max Meyer: Favorable under with strong starting pitchers

Mal Bamford strongly advises betting the first five innings under for the Marlins and Braves due to excellent starting pitchers. He highlighted Max Meyer's encouraging early metrics (seven strikeouts, one earned run allowed through 5.2 IP vs Pittsburgh), suggesting Meyer can neutralize Atlanta's struggling offense (14 runs total through seven games). He also praised Spencer Schwellenbach's superb recent performance (six scoreless innings vs Padres), recommending first five innings under as a safer play that minimizes bullpen exposure from less-reliable Miami relief pitching.

Positive Taek
Max Meyer: Easy strikeout over after hot start

Miami's Max Meyer already delivered 7 Ks in his lone outing of the season, surpassing this week's 4.5 Ks prop line comfortably. With his proven strikeout ability and favorable odds (-113), Meyer's over line represents a strong betting recommendation as he lines up against a Braves lineup that has shown vulnerability to high-quality strikeout pitchers.

Positive Taek
Max Meyer: Favorable strikeout matchup against slumping Braves lineup

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting the over on 4.5 strikeouts for Max Meyer against the Braves, minus 110 odds on Draft Kings. Meyer impressed in his first start versus the Pirates, striking out seven batters in 5.2 innings using his mid-90s fastball and effective slider that generated ten swings and misses. He's faced Atlanta twice last year and struck out seven hitters in each start, totaling 14 Ks across 11 innings. Additionally, the Braves are currently struggling offensively, holding the fourth-highest strikeout rate (30%) against right-handed pitching this season, up from being the tenth highest strikeout-prone lineup last season. They remain short-handed without stars Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy, and Jurickson Profar, further diminishing their offensive capabilities. Meyer should comfortably exceed this modest strikeout total if he works at least six innings.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Marlins offer underdog value, high-scoring projection against Struggling Braves

Greg Peterson suggests taking Marlins ML (+204) and over 7.5 runs (handicapped Marlins line +183 and total 7.9). While Atlanta is winless through seven games against powerful West Coast squads, Marlins starter Max Meyer had a decent debut, and Braves hurler Spencer Schwellenbach has only average historical numbers. Atlanta's bullpen woes (5.40 bullpen ERA) and Marlins' stronger early-season offensive production through station-to-station baseball add weight to Peterson's value-based assessment.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Strong money line value considering pitching uncertainty

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting on the Marlins money line, emphasizing the pitching matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Kodi Senga. Alcantara is returning from Tommy John surgery and had a modest start in his last appearance, but the analysis expects improvement this time around. On the other hand, Mets pitcher Kodi Senga lacks regular-season experience, having made only one regular-season start last year and never pitching more than two innings during postseason appearances. These pitching concerns mean the Mets will heavily depend on their bullpen early, giving Miami and Alcantara a strong opportunity to pull off the win.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Underpriced home dog value with elite starter

Drew Martin is backing the Marlins at +139, believing the betting market has undervalued Miami with Sandy Alcantara pitching. Alcantara was impressive on Opening Day, throwing four-plus innings and touching 100 mph with 7 strikeouts. Both teams have strong bullpens entering the game, but Alcantara's standout early performance and plus-money home dog pricing offer good betting value against an inconsistent Mets offense.

Positive Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Likely to bounce back after rough first outing

Brian Howard highlighted Sandy Alcantara as a possible bounce-back candidate for his second start against the Mets. Alcantara had a tough first outing against Pittsburgh, who Howard noted specifically match up well against his sinker and fastball combination. Despite this matchup disadvantage, Alcantara still looked strong overall beyond the result. Although Howard personally expressed hesitancy because the Marlins lineup gives little confidence compared to expectations, he noted Alcantara's talent and suggested considering Miami as underdogs in this spot if inclined. However, Howard emphasized caution, ultimately advising bettors to probably just avoid wagering on this game.

Positive Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Bet the NRFI with Alcantara, Senga dominating weak offenses

Bryce Hunt is confident in the No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet for the Mets and Marlins matchup on April 1st. He pointed out early-season strength of pitchers vs batters and the hitters' challenges in timing this early in the year. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara already looked excellent on opening day against Pittsburgh, generating 16 whiffs while sitting at 97 mph, solid slider usage and effectiveness early before tiring. Kodei Senga for the Mets had limited action last year due to injury but had a great second half in 2023 with his four-seam, cutter, and splitter combination ("ghost fork"). Bryce views Miami as having a weak offense, failing to score a first-inning run in their opening games despite their early 3-1 record. He expects both pitchers to handle opposing lineups easily through the first inning.

Negative Taek
Cal Quantrill: Fade him allowing hits despite leaving Colorado

JD Bets recommends betting on Cal Quantrill to allow over 3.5 hits against the Mets. Quantrill averaged 5.7 hits allowed over his recent games, and despite leaving hitter-friendly Colorado, JD argues he'll struggle to show improvement on the road in Miami. Historically, Quantrill gave up fewer than three hits only in one recent start, consistently allowing four or more over an extended period. The Mets lineup presents a tougher matchup than he's faced recently, reinforcing the recommendation. JD also mentioned he would include the Mets money line in a parlay, motivated by Quantrill's struggles with hits allowed.

Negative Taek
Cal Quantrill: Quantrill vulnerable to hits against Mets lineup

Guy Boston suggests targeting Miami pitcher Cal Quantrill's hits allowed total as an actionable bet against the Mets today. He highlights Quantrill's very poor numbers last season—allowing over 4.5 hits in 22 of 29 total starts and hitting the under narrowly in most of the remaining games. Guy Boston points out that the Mets have hitters like Lindor and Soto who historically hit righties effectively. Although he notes possible early-season risks due to limited pitch counts if Quantrill gets shelled early, he favors the over 3.5 hits allowed at -160 and strongly leans toward over 4.5 hits (+money odds) as a strong value option.

Negative Taek
Miami Marlins: Early-season fade spot for inflated Marlins against Mets

Scott Reichel recommended fading the Marlins' early-season success, reasoning they've benefited from facing a weak Pirates team. He argues Miami's inflated 3-1 start creates betting value on their opponent, the Mets, who faced a robust Astros team competitively over the weekend. Additionally, Scott explicitly called out pitcher Cal Quantrill's poor performances previously in Colorado. With skepticism toward Miami's bullpen and their early inflated record, Scott advises betting against them in this divisional matchup.

Negative Taek
Jorge Soler: Avoid after struggling historically against Miles Mikolas

Just a Bet Outside advised caution with Jorge Soler given his historically poor performance against Miles Mikolas. He is just 1-for-13 (.077) with five strikeouts, indicating Mikolas has consistently had his number. Soler is likely a DFS and betting fade in today's matchup due to past difficulties.

Negative Taek
Max Meyer: Max Meyer vulnerable to runs after shaky outings

JD Bets recommended betting Max Meyer over 1.5 earned runs allowed. Meyer struggled significantly at the end of last year, giving up multiple earned runs against offenses like Milwaukee, Atlanta, San Diego, and notably four runs versus Colorado. JD highlighted Meyer's inconsistency and doubts Meyer's ability to bounce back, especially given Miami's warm weather conducive to hitting. JD chose this prop due to Meyer's rough recent form rather than supporting either team directly, opting for the earned run prop which he identifies as safer than picking a winner in an uncertain matchup.

Negative Taek
Sandy Alcantara: Good stolen base opportunities against struggling starter

Scott Reichel strongly believes bettors and fantasy players should take advantage of Sandy Alcantara's inability to hold runners on base. Despite Alcantara's historically solid performance and Cy Young credentials, Scott noticed Pittsburgh stealing four bases against Alcantara on Opening Day and specifically cited Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz as examples. He advises closely monitoring stolen base props against Alcantara moving forward as his consistent weakness in holding base runners may create valuable betting and fantasy opportunities.

Positive Taek
Miami Marlins: Back these home underdogs purely on market pricing

Sean Zerillo recommends betting on the Miami Marlins as home underdogs versus the Pirates, particularly at an appealing number (+125 or better). He clarified this choice is purely a market price play, with no substantial matchup edge. However, he pointed out Pittsburgh's significant downgrade with Jared Jones likely out long-term with an arm injury (potentially requiring Tommy John surgery). Despite the limited specific advantages, Zerillo believes Marlins' current market line provides decent standalone betting value.