For Cardinals–Padres, Drew Martin targets the under, expecting a pitchers’ duel between Andre Pallante and Dylan Cease. Pallante just spun seven scoreless one-hit innings against Miami and, in Martin’s words, is 'tough to time up.' Cease owns a shaky 3-10 record overall but has consistently dominated weaker lineups and now draws a St. Louis offense that has been stagnant for weeks. Because oddsmakers may inflate the total based on those ugly win-loss numbers rather than current form, Martin prefers attacking the under instead of a side.

Mark’s second Padres wager is "San Diego to NOT bat in the 9th inning" at ‑115 on DraftKings. He expects Nick Pivetta to roll and the Machado-led lineup to give San Diego a late lead, meaning the home club would not come to the plate in the bottom of the ninth. With the Padres priced ‑158 on the moneyline and a modest 7.5 total, he views this market as a cheaper way to express confidence that San Diego will be ahead after eight frames.

The Bettor Mark will bet Manny Machado over 1.5 total bases at +105. Machado has cleared this line in eight straight contests and now draws Matthew Liberatore, a left-hander allowing a .487 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. With the market-best price showing plus money, Mark expects the Padres’ cleanup man to stay hot in Petco’s hitter-friendly summer conditions and cash another multi-base night.

Kenny G called San Diego −160 his 'lock of the day.' He trusts Nick Pivetta to build on last week’s 6.1-IP, 3-hit outing and likes the matchup against Matthew Liberatore. Supporting data: Padres bullpen owns the best ERA in MLB, their bats have scored 5, 7, 7 and 9 runs the past four games, and they are an elite 34-18 at Petco. Meanwhile the Cardinals are just 23-31 on the road with a 26-25-3 road O/U record. Kenny expects Pivetta + bullpen to suppress St. Louis while San Diego’s hot lineup capitalizes on Liberatore, making the Friars a strong straight-bet at the current number.

Guy Boston Sports advised taking Xander Bogaerts over 0.5 hits at ‑210 on FanDuel. Bogaerts has an 80% hit rate in both his last 10 (1.1 per game) and last 20 (1.2) contests and sits at 63% on the season. He has cleared the number in nine of his last 11 home games (1.4 per). Though he is 0-for-4 lifetime against southpaw Matthew Liberatore, the tout dismissed the tiny sample and focused on Bogaerts’ .306 average and .347 BABIP versus left-handers this year. Liberatore’s splits swing the wrong way when he faces right-handed bats (.273 AVG allowed). Pitch mix also favors Bogaerts: his wOBA is .445 vs sliders, .347 vs curves, .433 vs changeups, .424 vs cutters, and even .297 against fastballs—the pitch Liberatore throws most often. The cumulative data points to another base hit from Bogaerts tonight.

Eric Patti said bettors should grab the St. Louis Cardinals at a +120 underdog price against the San Diego Padres on August 1. Patti pointed out that while San Diego rolls in on a five-game winning streak and a 60-49 overall mark, they have burned bankrolls whenever they are favored, posting a 31-23 record as chalk that produces a net loss. He compared that to their surprising profitability when listed as dogs (25-26) and highlighted that St. Louis has held its own in the same role, going 25-24 as underdogs. Patti added that the Padres’ momentum could stall after the travel-day break, making the Cardinals the clear value side for money-line bettors.

Cash Out Sports Picks labeled the Padres money-line a strong play. Nick Pivetta is 6-0 with a 2.07 ERA across 11 Petco starts and now faces a Cardinals club that just tagged Matthew Liberatore for a loss last week. San Diego’s bullpen has allowed only two runs per game over the past ten outings, and the club is surging in the NL West race. With Pivetta’s extreme home splits and St. Louis scuffling, the tout expects San Diego to protect home field.