Kenny G preferred attacking the total, recommending Over 8.5 because both pitching staffs ooze volatility. Shane Baz (5.02 ERA) has delivered four rough outings in his last five and has already surrendered seven homers in 43 frames. Cal Quantrill is even worse at 7.00 with an ugly 1.66 WHIP, fresh off a four-run stumble versus the Cubs. Tampa’s bullpen has inched up to 3.50, while Miami’s remains bottom-eight at 4.69. LoanDepot Park has quietly played hitter-friendly this year (Marlins 14-9 to the over at home). Offensively, neither club is elite but both feature pop—Kyle Stowers (.300/10 HR) anchors Miami, and the Rays still sit mid-pack in average. Kenny thinks a single implosion from either starter pushes this past the number and is unwilling to lay −155 on Baz, making the total his cleaner path to exposure.

Douglass advised betting Under 8.5 runs at +100 in Rays-Marlins after the Dimers simulator produced a 52.7% hit rate and a 2.7% expected edge. The projection leans on Zach Eflin’s 29% strikeout rate and Edward Cabrera’s 56% ground-ball rate, plus Miami’s league-worst 85 wRC+ versus righties. LoanDepot Park suppresses homers by roughly 11% compared to league average, and both clubs’ bullpens enter with sub-3.50 ERAs over the last two weeks. With the roof expected closed and neutral winds, the model foresees a pitching-driven contest that lands in the 6–7 run range more than half the time.

Morgan suggested pairing Jonathan Aranda ($4,100), Yandy Diaz ($3,800) and Chandler Simpson ($3,500) against Cal Quantrill, who sits on a 7.00 ERA with Miami and a 5.32 mark the past three seasons while letting fellow righties torch him for a .417 average. Aranda is barreling everything (.321 AVG, six HR). Diaz brings bankable OBP (.369 career) and already owns six homers and eight doubles. Simpson offers elite wheels—nine steals in 25 MLB games and 73 in Double-A last year—giving the stack power, on-base skills and stolen-base upside. Morgan expects Tampa’s contact-oriented core to chase Quantrill early and feast on Miami’s bottom-five bullpen.

Morgan suggested pairing Jonathan Aranda ($4,100), Yandy Diaz ($3,800) and Chandler Simpson ($3,500) against Cal Quantrill, who sits on a 7.00 ERA with Miami and a 5.32 mark the past three seasons while letting fellow righties torch him for a .417 average. Aranda is barreling everything (.321 AVG, six HR). Diaz brings bankable OBP (.369 career) and already owns six homers and eight doubles. Simpson offers elite wheels—nine steals in 25 MLB games and 73 in Double-A last year—giving the stack power, on-base skills and stolen-base upside. Morgan expects Tampa’s contact-oriented core to chase Quantrill early and feast on Miami’s bottom-five bullpen.

Morgan called Josh Lowe ($3.3k) a priority in his Rays stack. Although Lowe just returned from the IL, he owns back-to-back seasons of 20+ HR and 25+ SB. He now faces Cal Quantrill, whose K/BB is projected under 2.0 for the third straight season and whose FIP again sits north of 5.00, leaving ample room for barrels and stolen-base attempts.

Morgan called Shane Baz a ‘dice roll’ worth taking at $8.8k. Although Baz owns a 5.02 ERA, his 4.33 FIP and 9.63 K/9 hint at better skills, and his ugly stat line is inflated by a 6.03 ERA in Tampa’s new park versus a stellar 2.31 mark on the road. Miami’s lineup sits just below league-average, setting up a cheap path to double-digit strikeouts in a pitcher-friendly environment.

Morgan’s Rays stack starts with Josh Lowe at $3,300. Although Lowe just came off the IL, Morgan cites the outfielder’s 10-HR/25-SB campaign last year and 20-HR/32-SB explosion in 2023 as evidence of upside. He faces Cal Quantrill, who is on pace for a sub-2.00 K/BB ratio and an FIP north of 5.00 for a second straight season while giving up more homers per nine than he did in Colorado. Morgan loves Lowe’s ability to take advantage of all that contact, projecting both power and stolen-base paths to value.

Calling it a “roll of the dice,” Morgan still likes Shane Baz at $8,800 for GPP builds. Baz’s surface numbers look rough (5.02 ERA), but his 4.33 FIP and 9.63 K/9 suggest better days ahead. Crucially, Baz has been night-and-day home vs. road: 6.03 ERA in Tampa’s new park versus 2.31 on the road. Sunday’s start comes in pitcher-friendly Miami against a Marlins offense Morgan labels slightly below league average. He sees the matchup and split as the perfect recipe for a ceiling game at suppressed ownership.

Francis grabbed Tampa Bay as slight underdogs, citing the Rays’ six-game winning streak in Miami and their 14-8 road record this season. Tampa ranks sixth in MLB in road wRC+, whereas Miami sits 28th overall. With the matchup essentially even on the mound, Francis believes the better lineup and recent dominance in this park make the Rays the value side.

Scott Reichel leaned to Tampa Bay at what he expects will be roughly –125, arguing Taj Bradley’s recent run (three straight outings of exactly two earned runs allowed) gives the Rays a clear starting-pitching advantage over Max Meyer, who has surrendered five earned in three consecutive appearances. While acknowledging Tampa’s offense is streaky, he pointed out the lineup has tagged Kevin Gausman and Toronto’s bullpen for 17 runs in two games this week, suggesting a mini-uptick is brewing. Reichel admitted he doesn’t love anything laying juice on the road, but Meyer’s 18% walk rate during this slump and a Miami pen with a 4.90 ERA force him onto the Rays’ moneyline.

Lonte Smith said he will grab Miami on the First-5 moneyline if books hang anything in the +115 to +125 range. He admitted Max Meyer has been a true Jekyll-and-Hyde — 15 earned runs, 20 hits, five homers, and nine walks over his last three starts, yet a combined 22 strikeouts to just two walks in the two outings before that. Smith still prefers Meyer to Taj Bradley on current form, noting Tampa is only 14-20 on the road and the Marlins have just navigated a brutal schedule that skews their season numbers. Offensively Miami is still averaging seven hits per game the last 10 despite facing top-five staffs almost nightly. Because both bullpens sit in the bottom third of xFIP, he is also sprinkling the full-game Over 8, expecting at least one crooked inning from each side.

Cash Out Sports Picks also leaned Over because Miami is 26-16 to the Over overall and 13-9 at home. Marlins pitchers allow more walks than any club, leading to crooked numbers, and Tampa is 2-1 to the Over on its current trip. Josh Lowe’s return adds punch to a Rays lineup facing a starter in Meyer who has allowed 15 earned runs across his last three outings. All signs point to a run-friendly opener.

The tout is backing Tampa Bay on the money line. Miami’s Max Meyer has surrendered five earned runs in three straight starts against weak offenses and now faces a Rays lineup that just handled Toronto. Rookie Taj Bradley has allowed five or more runs only once in eight turns, and Tampa’s bullpen locked down its last series. Miami’s offense remains inconsistent, and the Marlins have relied on unlikely power from Stowers to scrape wins. The tout sees value in Tampa opening the series with a victory.

Eric Lindquist pinpointed Kyle Stowers as a plus-money target to record 2+ hits when the Rays send Taj Bradley to the mound in Miami. Bradley’s swing-and-miss profile has cratered to an 18.3% K-rate, and Lindquist said the right-hander’s splitter "is not splitting," leaving him reliant on a flat four-seamer he throws 43% of the time. Stowers owns a .295 expected batting average and .407 xwOBA versus righties, metrics Lindquist believes translate to a 35–40% chance of multiple knocks in the pitcher-friendly park. Because LoanDepot Park mutes home-run upside, Lindquist prefers the 2-plus-hits prop over a long-shot dinger ticket and plans to bet if the line opens at +185 or better.

Jonathan Aranda ($3,200) gets Bennett’s vote as one of the slate’s best value bats. Max Meyer has surrendered exactly five earned runs in four consecutive starts (15.1 IP), and Aranda owns a video-game level .468 wOBA, 213 wRC+ and .278 ISO versus righties. The matchup offers standalone appeal or a launching pad for a Rays stack alongside Josh Lowe and Junior Caminero.