Eric Lindquist said Corey Seeger finally profiles as a worthwhile home-run ticket again Tuesday. Seeger’s season-long Statcast page has scared him off — an 11.4-degree launch angle (down from 13.5° in 2023) and a strike-out rate up roughly 2–2.5 percentage points — but Lindquist thinks the weather turns the math. Forecasts call for mid-90s heat and heavy humidity at Camden Yards, which historically adds 10–12 ft of carry. Facing a right-hander he expects to live in the zone, Lindquist believes any plus-450 or better HR number is live because one squared-up ball is all that’s needed. He classifies it as a “lean,” but says Seeger’s combination of 50% hard-hit rate since coming off the IL, Baltimore’s small RF porch, and guaranteed ninth-inning ABs make this the first Seeger bomb he’s willing to sprinkle on since April.

Guy Boston Sports said the Rangers are the side to back at plus money because of several matchup edges. Patrick Corbin may be merely league-average, but he at least has a normal routine and can give Bruce Bochy five innings, while Trevor Rogers has only two big-league starts under his belt and cratered against Tampa. The Orioles bullpen owns a bottom-10 ERA, whereas Texas is closer to mid-pack. At the plate, Texas has a 114 wRC+ versus lefties on the year and Baltimore has quietly flipped the script by posting a better wRC+ against southpaws than righties the last 30 days. With neither lineup consistent, volatility is high, but the Rangers check the boxes of superior ‘pen, more established starter and platoon advantage against Rogers. He leaned to the full-game over 9.5 for the same reasons, yet made the moneyline his preferred play given the pricing.

Dylan Rockford said the Rangers are worth a money-line stab as underdogs in Baltimore. His two main angles: Patrick Corbin has been serviceable (3.91 ERA noted earlier in the show) while the Orioles remain a bottom-five lineup against left-handed pitching. On the other side, Baltimore turns to Trevor Rogers, who has only two big-league starts after posting a 0-3 record and 5.51 ERA in Triple-A. Rockford wants more evidence before trusting Rogers and pointed out that his most recent minor-league outing was six-plus innings with five earned runs. With the Orioles missing Adley Rutschman and forced to start third-string catcher Gary Sanchez, Rockford believes Texas can steal this one and prefers the plus-money price on the Rangers’ money line.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Orioles money-line, stressing how little help Patrick Corbin can expect from a Texas lineup that ranks 27th in hits, 26th in runs, and has scored only 17 total runs in its last six games. Corbin has surrendered three-plus earned runs in five of his previous seven outings and the Rangers have dropped seven of his last ten starts while stumbling to a 15-24 road record. Trevor Rogers’ only real blemish this season was a wild, three-walk start against Tampa Bay, but he now sees a Rangers lineup that sits 26th in walks drawn. At Camden Yards, Baltimore averages 8-plus hits and a .250 team BA, giving Rogers the run support Corbin rarely sees. All of that pushed the tout to ride Baltimore at home.