Sam Monson recommended taking the Packers under 9.5 wins at FanDuel. He argued the roster is weaker than every other NFC North squad: the defensive line is still "Rashan Gary and a bunch of question marks," outside corners Nate Hobbs and Keisean Nixon are better in the slot, and there is no proven pass-rush help opposite Gary. While Monson believes Jordan Love's late-season surge in 2024 was real, he contends betting markets are already pricing in that near-ceiling outcome. With the Lions entrenched and the Bears and Vikings adding talent aggressively, Monson sees more realistic paths to eight wins than to ten.

Sam Monson labeled first-round pick Matthew Golden the "fascinating" X-factor in Green Bay’s receiver room. Golden’s blazing 40-time vaulted him up boards and gives him the raw athletic profile to become the Packers’ elusive true No. 1 target, which would instantly transform the passing attack. Monson cautioned, however, that Golden has only a "really, really small" collegiate sample of actually being that top option, making him a classic high-ceiling, high-variance late-round play that is better suited to best-ball formats than redraft lineups right away.

Sam Monson called Christian Watson "incredibly unreliable" and argued that every Packers wideout—Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks included—has flashed but never sustained production. Injuries and week-to-week inconsistency have kept Watson from locking down even a puzzle-piece role, much less true No. 1 status. Monson said this volatility forces fantasy managers to treat Watson strictly as a boom-bust option rather than a dependable weekly starter until the receiving corps shows real consistency.

Sam Monson said to smash the FanDuel over on Detroit’s 10.5-win total. He thinks any downside shows up in the postseason, not over 17 regular-season games. Monson pointed to the influx of secondary talent—Carlton Davis for only a third-round pick, D.J. Reed in free agency, plus Terrion Arnold’s expected leap—and called Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch the best safety duo in football. Up front, Jack Campbell “looked much better last season in year two” next to steady veteran Alex Anzalone, evidence that Brad Holmes has built genuine depth at every level after injuries stress-tested the roster in 2024. Combine that with Dan Campbell’s hyper-aggressive fourth-down mindset, which Monson believes tilts win equity toward the better team over a large sample, and he projects Detroit to clear 11 victories with room to spare.

Sam Monson said the Lions offense is likely to take a noticeable step backward in 2025 after losing play-caller Ben Johnson to Chicago. Monson emphasized that Johnson was the schematic engine behind Detroit’s league-best creativity: the endless trick-play rollodex, the gutsy third-and-6 inside-zone calls to Jameer Gibbs, and the route combinations that consistently sprung Amon-Ra St. Brown wide-open. The internal promotion meant to replace Johnson is, in Monson’s words, ‘further down the pecking order for a reason,’ creating real doubt that the same X-and-O magic will carry over. He added that Frank Ragnow’s surprise retirement leaves only three offensive-line spots he fully trusts, tightening the unit’s margin for error. Fantasy and betting takeaway: temper projections on Jared Goff and Detroit pass-catchers, and be cautious with early-season game-total overs until the new coordinator proves he can replicate Johnson’s efficiency and situational aggressiveness.

Sam Monson cautioned that Grady Jarrett’s name value no longer matches his on-field impact. Chicago handed the veteran defensive tackle a sizable deal, but Monson noted Jarrett’s tape shows clear age-related decline and a loss of interior burst. If Jarrett cannot reclaim pre-injury form, the Bears will still lack "hold-the-point" bodies next to Andrew Billings, leaving linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards exposed. Monson advised DFS players to keep targeting between-the-tackles runners versus Chicago and warned IDP managers that Jarrett is a trap at his current draft cost.

Sam Monson advised betting the Bears UNDER 8.5 wins at FanDuel. He acknowledged Chicago’s roster is clearly stronger—Ben Johnson upgrades the offense, the pass-rush looks deeper, and Caleb Williams will be better protected—yet argued the NFC North gauntlet caps their ceiling. Detroit is a legitimate Super Bowl contender and both Green Bay and Minnesota remain playoff threats, meaning Chicago could improve noticeably and still finish fourth in the division. Monson pointed to lingering soft spots (interior run defense, cornerback two) and the inevitable growing pains of a rookie head coach/QB pairing as further reasons the Bears may stall out around 7-8 victories.

Sam Monson said Caleb Williams is primed for a year-two breakout and should be drafted aggressively in fantasy formats. Monson pointed to the arrival of head coach Ben Johnson, who turned Jared Goff into a top-10 passer by layering shot plays and easy buttons into the offense. Johnson and GM Ryan Poles immediately upgraded the roster: veteran guard Joe Thuney joins a line Monson believes can leap from bottom-half to top-10, while Roma Duneze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland give Williams a deeper, faster receiving corps after Keenan Allen’s departure. Monson argued that better protection plus a more quarterback-friendly scheme will reduce Williams’ 19 turnover-worthy plays and league-high sack rate, unlocking the scramble-and-throw skillset that produced five big-time throws against Minnesota last season. He expects Chicago to clear its 8.5 win total and projects Williams to flirt with top-8 fantasy QB numbers thanks to improved efficiency and designed rollouts.

Sam Monson leaned the opposite direction on FanDuel’s 8.5-win total, saying this feels like the year Mike Tomlin’s "magic runs out." Monson is skeptical of a young, high-variance offensive line—Broderick Jones "looks like a problem" and one guard spot is wide open—and doubts the pass-catcher group if George Pickens is dealt. He questioned Aaron Rodgers’ willingness to become a low-volume game manager in Arthur Smith’s scheme and flagged the combustible mix of Rodgers, Tomlin, DK Metcalf and Jalen Ramsey as a blow-up risk if the team starts 2-5. With that wide range of outcomes, Monson believes 7-10 is more likely than 9-8 and advised betting the under.

Sam Monson warned that DK Metcalf’s fantasy ceiling could crater if Pittsburgh follows through on trading George Pickens. Monson noted Metcalf has "always had a running mate"—Tyler Lockett early, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba—freeing him to stick to posts, slants and go routes. Without Pickens, Metcalf becomes the unquestioned WR1 but also a one-dimensional focal point for defenses in an offense that may already skew run-heavy under Arthur Smith. Add a questionable offensive line and a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers who will likely check out of those runs he dislikes, and Monson sees a target-volume squeeze with lower efficiency. He advised treating Metcalf as a volatile WR3 rather than the back-end WR1 his name value commands in drafts.

Sam Monson argued that Aaron Rodgers remains physically capable of a rebound fantasy season—his arm talent is "legit," his post-Achilles mobility grades out average rather than detrimental—so the real hinge point is whether he lets new play-caller Arthur Smith run the show. Monson traced Rodgers’ career arc: the back-to-back MVP spike under Matt LaFleur came only after LaFleur "won the internal argument" over scheme, while Rodgers’ self-directed seasons with Nathaniel Hackett crashed. If Rodgers surrenders to Smith’s heavy play-action, easy-button concepts (the same staples that maximized Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee), Monson thinks a top-10 QB finish and efficient DFS value are back on the table even with a thin WR corps behind DK Metcalf. If he freelances, the floor resembles last year’s disappointment. Actionable takeaway: draft Rodgers as a discounted upside QB2, monitor camp reports on his rapport with Smith, and be ready to deploy him in favorable early-season DFS matchups if noise out of Pittsburgh suggests he’s buying in.

Sam Monson recommended betting the FanDuel under 5.5 wins for Cleveland. He does not trust any quarterback in the four-man room—calling Joe Flacco "fool’s gold," dismissing Kenny Pickett as a non-factor, and labeling the rookies developmental. Monson added that three of five starting linemen are headed for free agency, so Andrew Berry could flip veterans along the offensive line and in the secondary for draft capital by mid-season, leaving Cleveland short on talent for the stretch run. That potential "baseball-style" sell-off, paired with the AFC North gauntlet of the Ravens, Bengals, and one year of Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, makes six wins an uphill climb in 2025.

Sam Monson dismissed the idea that Joe Flacco can salvage Cleveland’s offense, calling him "fool’s gold" at this stage of his career. Monson expects the Browns to field one of the league’s worst offenses despite occasional big-yardage games from Flacco, arguing those spikes merely highlight how dreadful Deshaun Watson was. He pointed to a four-man quarterback room "nobody trusts," a front office already gearing its assets toward the 2026 draft, and lingering morale issues from the Watson fiasco. Because the organization is effectively punting on 2025 and lacks a reliable signal-caller, Monson advised fading all Browns skill players in season-long leagues and avoiding Flacco stacks in DFS unless you’re chasing low-probability tournament volatility.

Sam Monson maintained that fantasy managers should not fade Mike Evans simply because he’s turning 31. Evans owns a career 15-plus yards-per-reception average and recently passed 100 touchdowns, production Monson credited to “being big and strong and fast” rather than pure long speed. That skill set, he said, will let Evans stay Tampa’s primary vertical and red-zone weapon even after losing a step, similar to how Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall aged. Monson sees Evans’ spike-week profile intact, making him a value at current ADP in Season-Long leagues and an ideal ceiling play for Best-Ball builds.

Sam Monson warned drafters that Tampa Bay’s receiver corps carries far more downside than people acknowledge. He pointed to Chris Godwin coming off another significant knee injury at an age when recoveries slow, Mike Evans entering the decline phase where explosion can vanish quickly, and first-round pick Emeka Abuka projecting as merely “solid” rather than a ceiling-changing talent. Monson added that Trey Palmer is a one-trick 4.3-speed deep threat with drop issues and that seventh-rounder Taz Johnson’s size limits his floor. Because the unit’s range of outcomes is wider than other elite groups, Monson advised avoiding early-round exposure in Season-Long drafts and being underweight in Best-Ball tournaments.

Sam Monson endorsed betting the Bengals to clear FanDuel’s 9.5-win total, yet added a hedge that keepers and bettors alike should temper expectations for the offense. He cited three tailwinds—Al Golden’s fresh defensive scheme, healthier cornerback room, and natural improvement from a veteran offensive line running it back—arguing those edges should flip several of last year’s one-score losses. However, Monson warned that even a "slight downtick" from Joe Burrow and the Chase-Higgins duo could cancel out those gains through simple variance. In his view, the over is still the right side, but portfolio managers should avoid parlaying it with overs on Burrow’s MVP odds or pushing team totals too aggressively until the offense proves it can replicate 2024 efficiency.

Sam Monson flagged Amarius Mims as the swing piece that could make or break Cincinnati’s 2025 offensive line. Monson reminded listeners that the former Georgia tackle logged very few college snaps and is already stacking lower-body injuries in the pros, calling that a "pretty scary profile for a guy they need right away." Because the Bengals filled the rest of the line with mid-tier veterans instead of blue-chip talent, Monson believes pass-protection quality will hinge on whether Mims stays healthy and develops quickly. If he busts or misses time, Monson expects the unit to resemble last year’s bottom-ten group in pressure rate, forcing Joe Burrow back into scramble-and-quick-throw mode and capping the ceiling for the passing game. He advised best-ball drafters to moderate exposure to full Bengals stacks and be mindful of weekly matchup risk in DFS until Mims proves durable.

Sam Monson forecasted the Bengals defense to rebound from 29th in EPA per play to at least middle-of-the-pack, making them a legitimate streaming DST in season-long leagues. His optimism hinges on three pillars: (1) a schematic refresh under new coordinator Al Golden after Lou Anarumo’s message "got stale"; (2) healthier corners—DJ Turner and Dax Hill return after missing a combined 17 games; and (3) the likely re-signing of Trey Hendrickson, whose 91.1 PFF pass-rush grade covered up a pass-rush unit that finished bottom three in pressure rate when he was off the field. Monson cautioned that if the holdout lingers the upside caps, but with Hendrickson aboard he expects the unit to push 40-plus sacks and finish as a weekly top-12 fantasy defense in favorable matchups.

Sam Monson urged listeners to keep hammering Chiefs futures and playoff DFS stacks because Patrick Mahomes historically morphs into a mistake-free machine once the postseason starts. Monson cited PFF’s turnover-worthy-play rate, noting Mahomes sits in the middle of the pack during regular-season games but drops to "Justin Herbert levels"—i.e., top-five cautious—each January. That single change, he argued, alters Kansas City’s entire offensive profile: long drives stay alive, defensive game scripts tighten, and Andy Reid doesn’t need to ‘save’ exotic concepts the way fans assume. The Chief’s recent Super Bowl track record despite mid-season funks illustrates how valuable that shift is. If you are building playoff best-ball teams, stacking Mahomes with Kansas City pass-catchers remains a +EV move, and bettors should not shy away from AFC or Super Bowl tickets even if the offense looks pedestrian in October.

Sam Monson dismissed offensive-line hand-wringing and kept Derrick Henry firmly in the RB1 conversation. He pointed to 2024—the veteran’s "best statistical season"—as proof that Baltimore’s backfield "axis" of Henry plus Lamar Jackson buys the line the grace it needs. Defenses must rush conservatively to contain Jackson while Henry sheds arm tackles, leading to late-game explosion runs mirroring his Tennessee heyday. Even if second-year RT Roger Rosengarden stagnates and the guards are a revolving door of Daniel Faalele, Andrew Voorhees or Ben Cleveland, Monson expects the math to stay heavily in Henry’s favor. Fantasy managers and DFS players, he argued, should continue treating Henry as a high-volume, touchdown-rich option tailor-made for run-heavy scripts when Baltimore plays from ahead.

Sam Monson framed Baltimore’s FanDuel win total of 11.5 as entirely reasonable, noting the Ravens have posted a 12-5 record, own one of the two best five-year DVOA runs ever for a team without a Super Bowl trip, and field "very few holes" across the roster. He reminded listeners that Baltimore routinely crushes playoff-caliber teams in the regular season—beating Detroit, San Francisco and Buffalo handily the past two seasons—while returning an MVP-level quarterback in Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry off his best statistical year, and a defense Monson just ranked as the NFL’s best secondary. Because their only lingering questions are postseason specific, Monson implied the path to a 12-win regular season is clear and bettors should lean to the over.

Sam Monson pumped the brakes on crowning Baltimore’s secondary, warning fantasy managers and futures bettors not to pay a full elite premium. His biggest flags: Jair Alexander has logged only about 50 percent of possible snaps over the last two seasons, Chidobe Awuzie has gone from quality starter to below average in consecutive campaigns, and Malachi Starks—no matter how much scouts love him—remains an untested rookie. If Alexander’s injuries linger, Awuzie’s decline continues, or Starks struggles to adjust, the unit’s floor drops quickly. Monson still sees a high ceiling, but advised treating the Ravens D/ST as boom-or-bust rather than a locked-in top-three option and factoring that volatility into win-total and defensive-player prop bets.

Sam Monson praised Cleveland’s offseason as a sneaky win for both betting markets and IDP players. He noted the franchise turned a potential disaster—Myles Garrett demanding a trade—into a multi-year extension that keeps his elite 20-plus-percent pressure rate in Jim Schwartz’s system. Cleveland then traded down, grabbed DT Mason Graham (a top-five tape grade for Monson), and still collected quarterbacks Shadr Sanders and Dylan Gabriel as cheap escape hatches from the Deshaun Watson contract. The added draft capital plus a happy Garrett leaves Monson projecting the Browns defense to finish top-five in sacks and turnovers, making the Browns D/ST a priority after Round 12 in season-long drafts and a live long-shot in AFC North futures while books remain skeptical.

Sam Monson said fantasy managers and bettors should brace for track-meet scripts in Cincinnati games this season. The Bengals kept Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, but Monson argued they "undermined" those wins by letting the Trey Hendrickson contract dispute linger, drafting only six players, and doing nothing meaningful to fix an offensive line and pass rush that already ranked 28th in pressure rate and allowed the sixth-most yards per play in 2023. First-round edge Shamar Stewart is still unsigned, leaving a real chance the defense starts slow again. Monson expects that to push Joe Burrow’s weekly attempts back into the 40-plus range, propping up Chase/Higgins in all formats and creating early value on game-total overs, Bengals shootout stacks in DFS, and long-shot Burrow MVP tickets before sportsbooks adjust.

Sam Monson said Mike Green could be one of the biggest steals of the entire draft for Baltimore. Green’s tape graded as a top-15 overall player, but he tumbled into Round 2 strictly because of off-field concerns. Monson cited data showing that teams historically gain surplus value when they stop a talented player’s slide relative to the consensus board. If the character flags prove manageable, Baltimore will have landed a first-round caliber edge defender at a massive discount—a profile worth stashing in deeper IDP or dynasty formats given the Ravens’ track record of maximizing front-seven talent.

Sam Monson said Russell Wilson is the overwhelming favorite to win the Giants’ camp battle and start Week 1. He expects Wilson to command roughly 70 percent of the first-team practice snaps while rookie Jackson Dart takes the remaining 30 percent, a split Monson believes gives the staff enough data to evaluate Dart without rushing him into real games. With Jameis Winston projected to get virtually zero practice reps, Monson views Wilson as the unquestioned early-season starter and a low-cost QB2 for the first month of season-long or best-ball formats. He cautioned managers to plan an exit strategy by mid-October because the organization could re-assess once they have several weeks of practice tape on Dart, but for Weeks 1–6 he likes Wilson as a steady streaming or DFS cash-game option.

Sam Monson advised ignoring Jameis Winston in fantasy drafts because the Giants are likely to bypass him if/when Russell Wilson falters. Monson believes the organization will maintain a 70/30 practice-rep split—Wilson taking the lion’s share, Jackson Dart the developmental chunk—and leave Winston almost completely out of the weekly install. He joked that Winston’s main role is 'minister / chaplain / inspirational speaker,' noting that the veteran could be thrown in blindfolded without reps and look the same. Monson stressed that when New York finally benches Wilson, front-office urgency will force them to jump straight to Dart, not Winston. With Winston projected to see minimal practice time and no guarantee of even a spot-start, Monson labeled him a wasted roster spot in season-long and best-ball leagues.

Sam Monson said the Giants are "incredibly well set up" to let Russell Wilson handle 2025 while first-round pick Jaxon Dart watches from the sideline all year. Monson pointed out that Wilson is still "a viable starter… he’s fine," and New York also signed Jameis Winston, "one of the better backups in the NFL," to absorb any short-term benchings or injuries. Because the franchise only spent "a decent investment"—a few mid-round picks—to move up for Dart, Monson believes they can afford to develop him slowly. He warned that front offices usually get impatient in "deepest, darkest November," throw the rookie in, and stunt his growth. Monson’s actionable takeaway: treat Dart as a developmental stash rather than a 2024 fantasy asset, and draft Wilson—not Dart—if you need early-season QB starts in season-long or best-ball formats.

Sam Monson laid out the narrow pathway for Spencer Rattler to overtake Tyler Shuck. Rattler’s quick, aesthetically pleasing release should wow coaches during 7-on-7s, but his rookie-year sack rate and general "overwhelmed" look still linger. Monson said the only realistic scenario is a simultaneous convergence: Shuck strings together several "horrific, supernova" mistakes in camp while Rattler stacks flawless reps. Even then, the draft-capital gap (second-rounder vs fifth-rounder) and the organization’s mandate to evaluate Shuck make Rattler a long-shot. Deep-league or best-ball managers can treat Rattler as a speculative stash who will only gain value if Shuck face-plants in August.

Sam Monson said he would immediately phone every front office to unload Kenny Pickett— even a conditional late-round pick would be enough— rather than let Pickett siphon training-camp reps. Monson’s logic: Joe Flacco will placate the win-now veterans in Week 1, and the Browns intend to cycle through rookies once Flacco inevitably falters, leaving Pickett with no realistic snap pathway. He advised best-ball drafters to stop treating Pickett as a cheap QB2 and instead pivot to Cleveland’s rookies. In the betting market, Monson recommended fading any 'Pickett to start Week 1' props and taking unders on his season-long passing totals if books hang them, because he believes Pickett might not even make the 53-man roster.

Sam Monson laid out a scenario where Joe Flacco opens 2024 as a locker-room pacifier, starts the first month, then promptly loses the job once the Browns are 1-3 and veterans realize he is "not a good starting quarterback anymore." Monson expects Cleveland to flip to a rookie—most likely Dillon Gabriel—by October to appease the fanbase and accelerate evaluation. The takeaway for bettors: short Flacco in season-long passing props and target under 4.5 starts if that line appears. In best-ball formats, Monson views Flacco as nothing more than a late-round September plug-in whose value evaporates after the first waiver run.

Sam Monson said Dillon Gabriel is not just a camp arm – he believes the fifth-rounder can flat-out win the Browns’ starting job if reps break his way. Monson noted that Cleveland clearly "likes Gabriel" after spending unexpected draft capital on him and pointed out that the rookie’s quick release and deep-ball touch graded out in the 90th percentile of PFF’s college charting. Because the Browns have to make early cuts to funnel practice snaps, a hot first week of camp could vault Gabriel ahead of Kenny Pickett and even Joe Flacco. Monson advised dynasty managers to stash Gabriel now and suggested sprinkling long-shot “Week 1 starter” props before preseason action begins.

Sam Monson cautioned bettors and fantasy managers not to overreact to Flacco’s feel-good resurgence. Over his Jets-Colts-Browns run he produced a respectable 14-TD/6-INT line, yet the PFF charting shows three big-time throws against seven turnover-worthy plays in one season and a negative BTT-to-TWP ratio across five years. Monson called that profile "poisonous" and warned the luck on those interceptions is unlikely to hold. He likened Flacco to the inverse of Jameis Winston—solid headline numbers masking shaky tape—arguing that expectation-adjusted EPA and turnover metrics project regression. For sportsbooks offering season-long passing prop overs or Browns win totals boosted by the Flacco narrative, Monson recommended the under.

Sam Monson said Joe Flacco is likely to open the season under center if Cleveland prioritizes immediate wins. He argued that veteran voices in the locker room—players like Myles Garrett—will push for the quarterback who gives them the best chance right now, and Flacco checks the obvious NFL-QB boxes: 6-foot-6 frame, still-strong arm and a recent track record of stabilizing offenses. Monson reminded listeners that Flacco rescued the 2023 Browns down the stretch, guiding them to a playoff berth after similar stretches with the Jets where the offense functioned best when he played. Because those veterans remember that taste of January football, Monson believes Flacco enters camp with an inside track to the starting job, making him a viable late-round flier in best-ball drafts and an early sprinkle in any “Week 1 starter” prop markets.

Sam Monson predicted Daniel Jones will be the Colts’ Week 1 starter. He expects the coaching staff to enter camp "wanting Richardson to win the job," but believes Jones’ experience and reliability will force their hand. Monson pointed out Jones already owns the 20th-most single-season QB rushing yards (2022) and showed his career-best play that same year, demonstrating how a designed run game can unlock him in Shane Steichen’s system. With every first-team rep while Richardson rehabs, and a superior supporting cast featuring Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr. and an above-average line, Monson thinks Jones will simply outperform the still-raw Richardson in August and grab the job. Fantasy drafters should treat Jones as the favorite for early-season starts with a sneaky rushing floor.

Sam Monson said Daniel Jones could post a career season if he wins the Colts’ starting job. Richardson’s offseason injury has left Jones with every first-team rep, and Monson believes the surrounding talent is miles ahead of anything Jones had in New York: three proven linemen (Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith) with a path to a top-10 unit if an average center and right guard emerge; a receiving corps of Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, slot technician Josh Downs, and first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren; plus Jonathan Taylor as a true bell-cow. Coupled with Shane Steichen’s QB-friendly system, Monson expects a legitimate 6-4 or 7-3 start and a playoff push, arguing that makes Jones a late-round fantasy target and an intriguing long-shot futures bet for Comeback Player of the Year.

Sam Monson cautioned bettors that Detroit’s 2024 profile carries more downside than past seasons. He stressed that losing both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn in the same offseason is the kind of disruption models often undervalue—teams replacing play-callers historically average a half-win drop the next year. On the roster front, Frank Ragnow’s retirement leaves two unsettled spots on the offensive line, and the Lions still have no proven edge rusher opposite an Aidan Hutchinson coming off serious injury. Although the signing of corner D.J. Reed shores up the secondary, Monson believes the cumulative effect of coaching turnover and lingering trench holes makes Detroit a fade relative to lofty expectations. He suggested looking at under 10.5 wins and being cautious with early NFC championship futures.

Sam Monson said the Bears’ offseason should have fantasy managers aggressively targeting Caleb Williams because Chicago finally paired its rookie quarterback with elite infrastructure. Monson highlighted three ingredients: (1) Ben Johnson—arguably the most coveted play-caller in football—was lured away from Detroit, giving Williams the same creative mind that juiced Jared Goff’s efficiency the last two seasons; (2) Chicago invested heavily up front by signing Joe Thuney and center Drew Dalman, creating a markedly better pocket than the one Justin Fields dealt with; and (3) the front office doubled down on weapons, spending first- and second-round picks on dynamic tight end Colston Loveland and explosive wideout Luther Burden. Add in a returning DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, and Monson believes Williams will have one of the league’s deepest supporting casts from Day 1. The holistic upgrade in coaching and protection makes Williams a high-ceiling QB2 in Season-Long leagues and a priority Best-Ball target with Offensive Rookie of the Year upside.

Sam Monson said the Colts signing Daniel Jones creates a clear win-win quarterback competition that could unlock Jones as a fantasy sleeper. Monson argued Jones fits Shane Steichen’s run-heavy, RPO-friendly scheme that was designed for Anthony Richardson, noting that Jones actually plays a similar brand of football with a reliable rushing floor. If Richardson does not develop quickly enough, Jones steps into what Monson called “probably the best situation of his six- or seven-year career” thanks to an improved supporting cast of Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Monson concluded that this environment could push Indianapolis toward playoff contention, making Jones a viable late-round dart in best ball and superflex drafts and even a deep Comeback Player of the Year betting flier.

Sam Monson said bettors should keep buying Buffalo Bills futures because the front office executed a calm, targeted offseason instead of a panic rebuild. He noted the club only had one true hole—cornerback two—and filled it with Maxwell Harrison while also stock-piling depth on the defensive line and in the secondary. Monson highlighted additions such as Joey Bosa, Josh Palmer, and draft picks TJ Sanders, Deion Walker, and Landon Jackson as proof that Buffalo upgraded the very area that failed them when five backups had to face Kansas City in the divisional round two seasons ago. With Josh Allen already giving them a top-five offense, Monson expects improved defensive health and versatility to keep the Bills in the AFC elite, making current Super Bowl and conference odds undervalued rather than something to fade.

Sam Monson also acknowledged a glass-half-full angle for best-ball drafters: Cousins should be healthier in Year 2 post-Achilles and is already embedded in Zac Robinson’s scheme. Atlanta values him as “the best backup quarterback in the NFL,” especially given Michael Penix Jr.’s extensive college injury history (two shoulder surgeries and two ACL tears). Monson highlighted two 2023 flashes—a 500-yard OT win versus Tampa Bay and a late comeback against Philadelphia—as evidence Cousins can still spike if his mobility returns. Because any injury to Penix would thrust Cousins into a starting role without a learning curve, Monson labeled him a viable last-round lottery ticket in best-ball formats where QB depth matters.

Sam Monson warned fantasy managers not to bank on Kirk Cousins starting anywhere in 2024. Monson pointed to Cousins’ 2023 tape, noting the Falcons had to redesign the offense around his post-Achilles limitations and still benched him. He argued the veteran "might be done" and that no team was willing to surrender draft capital or absorb his salary this offseason, leaving an injury-driven trade as the only path to snaps. Because Atlanta can afford to stash the NFL’s highest-paid backup and Cousins owns a no-trade clause, Monson believes he will sit behind Michael Penix Jr. all year barring a catastrophic QB injury elsewhere, making Cousins a fade in traditional season-long drafts.

Sam Monson argued that Seattle’s offseason moves should push bettors toward a more pessimistic stance on the 2024 Seahawks. He pointed out that trading away Geno Smith and DK Metcalf for Sam Darnold and an older Cooper Kupp leaves the team "voluntarily a little bit worse at two of the most important positions in the NFL." Monson also emphasized that the interior offensive line—Seattle’s biggest weakness last year—remains largely unaddressed. While he acknowledged the upgraded defensive line with DeMarcus Lawrence, Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, and Boye Mafe, Monson said every positive addition has a larger negative offset on offense. The net result, in his view, is a roster that went from “a very good team that just needed an interior O-line fix” to one with major questions at quarterback, wide receiver, and the line in front of them. That combination makes it difficult to justify any bullish futures positions such as the Seahawks’ season-win over or playoff odds.

Sam Monson warned that Carolina’s defensive line could remain a liability despite the team’s active offseason. He pointed out the Panthers missed on marquee free-agent Milton Williams "for a few million" and instead pivoted to cheaper, lower-ceiling options. In the draft they passed on an early edge rusher, later settling for Nick Scorton and Prince Liam as back-fills—an approach Monson compared unfavorably to last year’s Falcons failure. Because the pass rush is likely to stay weak, Monson expects opponents to score freely, creating high-total game environments. Bettors should keep an eye on Panthers overs and quarterback props until the front proves otherwise.

Sam Monson highlighted third-round pick Xavier Watts as a consequential selection because Atlanta released Justin Simmons, leaving a starting safety job wide open. Monson noted that Watts’ ball-hawking profile at Notre Dame and the Falcons’ need for range on the back end give him a realistic path to the Week 1 lineup. That immediate playing-time upside makes Watts a low-cost dynasty stash and a potential early-season punt option in IDP or DFS slates if camp reports confirm he is running with the starters.

Sam Monson warned that only two of 32 second-round selections have signed and predicted a wave of holdouts, beginning with Chargers receiver Tre Harris already skipping report day. The logjam started when Houston fully guaranteed Jaden Higgins’ deal at pick 34, forcing Cleveland to do the same for Carson Swessinger at 33. Agents for the rest of the round now refuse to settle for the old 70-80 percent guarantee template, so teams are digging in. Monson believes many of these rookies will miss at least part of training camp, costing them valuable first-team reps that historically depress early-season fantasy output. Season-long drafters should bump second-round skill players down their boards or monitor the contract news closely before investing.

Sam Monson argued that inserting Geno Smith instantly makes Las Vegas a live dog in every matchup rather than the walk-over they have been. While acknowledging Smith will still be the division’s third- or fourth-best passer behind Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Monson stressed the "massive step forward" from the Raiders’ recent quarterback carousel. He highlighted that Smith’s presence, paired with rookie weapon Ashton Gentie and Chip Kelly’s second NFL stint as play-caller, raises the offensive floor enough that bettors should expect the Raiders to stay within spreads most weeks and flirt with an eight- or nine-win season. Monson’s bottom line: the days of automatically fading Las Vegas are gone; with Smith under center they are firmly in the ATS conversation throughout 2024.

Sam Monson echoed the bullish outlook, calling Tampa Bay "a double-digit win team" and backing the OVER on 9.5 victories. Monson highlighted the same schedule rhythm Steve noted—brutal first seven weeks followed by a pillow-soft finish—and pointed out that the two mid-season road trips to Buffalo and Los Angeles are the only spots where the Bucs will be solid underdogs after Halloween. He likes the offense’s upside with Baker Mayfield now in year three of Dave Canales’s system, rookie speed injections from Egbuka and Tez Johnson, and an offensive line that finished 7th in pass-block grade after Week 10 last season. Monson also emphasized that Tampa plays both Panthers matchups in Weeks 16 and 18, giving the Buccaneers the chance to capitalize on a rookie-led Carolina roster that may already be looking toward 2025. His final takeaway: even a modest 4-4 start leaves plenty of runway for a 6-3 close, making 10-7 the most likely outcome. Bettors looking for plus money on Tampa to win the NFC South should grab it now before the market moves.

Sam Monson recommended betting the Packers over 9.5 wins, emphasizing that Green Bay still won 12 games last season despite Jordan Love playing below his ceiling for most of the year. Monson praised the roster’s depth, the influx of young talent from recent drafts, and the coaching staff’s quality on both sides of the ball—particularly Matt LaFleur’s offense. He framed the win-total line as underrating a team with a strong foundation that should remain a double-digit winner if Love merely maintains last year’s late-season form. Hosting early matchups versus Detroit and Washington will offer quick proof, but Monson does not see a realistic path where this roster finishes below 10 victories.

Sam Monson took the UNDER on Dallas’ 7.5-win total. He argued the roster is moving in the wrong direction: Dak Prescott’s contract now looks bloated relative to Allen or Mahomes, and Prescott needs more help around him than those elite quarterbacks. That help has eroded – the offensive line carries more questions than at any point in recent seasons and the skill-position group is weaker than it was during their 12-win peak. Monson also highlighted a nasty late-season gauntlet that starts Week 12: Eagles, Chiefs on Thanksgiving, at Lions the following Thursday, then Vikings. Facing three top-tier opponents in 11 days could sink any playoff push. Add in the wild-card effect of first-time head coach Brian Schottenheimer, whose true value is completely unknown, and Monson sees another “mess” similar to last year. All those factors push him to fade the Cowboys’ win total for betting markets.

Sam Monson said he would bet the Seahawks under 8.5 wins. He is uneasy about Seattle importing another Kubiak/Shanahan-style offense just as defenses appear to have finally solved that scheme league-wide. Monson highlighted lingering interior-line problems—despite first-round rookie Grace Abel—and reminded listeners how playoff pressure up the middle turned Sam Darnold from borderline Pro Bowler into a "catastrophe." Given Darnold’s wildly volatile track record, ranging from All-Pro stretches to bench-worthy implosions, Monson thinks Seattle’s quarterback floor is far below the steady baseline Geno Smith provided the last three years. Combining a potentially less effective system, pass-protection concerns, and the huge unknown of Darnold, Monson is betting the Seahawks finish below nine victories.