Chirimbes predicted a razor-thin 20-19 Buffalo win but made it clear he prefers Carolina +7. The Panthers are 3-0 straight up and ATS at home, rank 7th in total defense (295.7 YPG allowed) and 13th in scoring defense (21.7 PPG). Meanwhile, Buffalo has dropped two straight after a 4-0 start, and Josh Allen has never lost three in a row—reason enough for Chirimbes to call for a Bills escape but not a cover.

Doug Burrell urged bettors to grab Carolina +7, explaining that the Panthers have quietly become a defense-first, ball-control squad. Their ground attack sits among the league’s most productive units and now faces a Bills front surrendering over 150 rushing yards per game, one of the worst marks in the NFL. By pounding that mismatch, Carolina can dictate tempo and keep Josh Allen watching from the sideline. Burrell also noted Buffalo returns from a bye after back-to-back losses— a situation where teams often open sluggish and rarely cover big numbers. All told, he expects Carolina’s physical run game and stingy defense to keep this inside one score, making the full touchdown too much to pass up.

Hill played Rico Dowdle Over 51.5 rushing yards. Buffalo is surrendering an NFL-worst 5.8 yards per carry, and Dowdle has ripped off 206, 183 and 79 rushing yards in his past three games. Even with Chuba Hubbard returning to the rotation, Hill believes Dowdle will see enough early-down work to smash this number against a shaky Bills front.

Bryce Young is out, but Dabbundo argued the downgrade to Andy Dalton is negligible—both have nearly identical EPA per play over the last two seasons. He pointed out Buffalo’s offense has sputtered in back-to-back weeks because its early-down run game (4th-highest run rate in the league) was bottled up, and Carolina’s once-porous front is now healthy and ranks 3rd in run-defense DVOA. If the Bills can’t establish the ground game, the Panthers can stay within the number. Verdict: Bet Panthers +7.5.

Joyner pointed out that Carolina has been one of the league’s best run defenses over the past month while Buffalo ranks near the bottom in rushing yards allowed since Week 4. That trench mismatch should let the Panthers grind the clock and keep Josh Allen on the sideline, shortening the game enough to stay inside the +7.5. He slapped a confidence-level-2 on the cover while still expecting Buffalo to eke out the win.

Prisco advised taking Buffalo –7.5. He likes the extra rest after a two-game skid to fix the Bills' run-defense leaks. Carolina has won two straight behind a bruising ground attack, but Prisco believes the Bills will be "better here at stopping it" and that Josh Allen "gets back on track." Final call: 28-20, enough to cash Bills tickets.

Tuley recommended Carolina +7 or +7.5, noting Buffalo’s week-to-week volatility. The Bills were outplayed in their pre-bye loss at Atlanta and previously failed to cover versus Miami, New Orleans and New England despite wins. Meanwhile, Carolina quietly owns a three-game streak over the Dolphins, Cowboys and Jets. If those middling clubs could stay within one score, Tuley argues the Panthers—catching a full TD at home—can do the same.