Matt Perrault backed Brandon Lowe to go OVER 1.5 total bases at +115, staking only a half-unit because Sundays can be volatile. He called Lowe "nuclear hot," noting the second baseman has scored in seven of nine games and produced two-plus bases in three of his last six, including a homer on Wednesday. The Prop Bet Cheat Sheet makes this a five-star, +25% EV play with a projection of exactly two bases. Perrault likes the match-up against Casey Mize, whose 3.82 road ERA and .274 opponents’ average have led to 16 earned runs in 37.2 innings. He also cited Detroit’s status as the league’s No. 1 over team and a Rays offense that has plated 22 runs in the first two games of the series. A double, triple, homer, or two singles cashes the ticket.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing Tampa Bay on the moneyline. The Rays lead MLB with 228 runs at home while batting .261 at Tropicana, and starter Zack Littell owns a 3.57 ERA and .260 opponents’ average in the dome (1.11 WHIP overall). Detroit sends Casey Mize, who has cooled after a hot April and is allowing a .276 average on the road. Tampa’s steady winning pace keeps producing plus EV prices because the club lacks star buzz. Given the potent home lineup and sharper starter, the tout viewed the Rays as the logical side.

Razzle dismissed Shane Baz on a 13-game slate, noting that one solid outing cannot erase nearly two months of mediocre results. Detroit’s lineup owns the league’s sixth-best hard-hit rate versus right-handers, and Baz’s 10.4% walk rate compounds trouble in a park that dings strikeout upside. With superior high-ceiling options elsewhere, Razzle will exclude Baz completely from his pitching pool.

Razzle said Jack Flaherty remains firmly in his DK pitching pool even with a 40-percent delay threat at Tropicana. The price has fallen after a clunker in Cincinnati, yet Flaherty logged two 31-plus DK point outings in the three starts prior—including one against a tough Cubs lineup—showing the ceiling is intact. Tropicana suppresses homers, and Tampa’s current wRC+ sits below league average versus righties. If storms linger late he may pivot, but for now Razzle views the salary dip plus strikeout upside (30.2% K-rate this year) as worth assuming some weather variance in GPPs.

Reichel is backing Tampa Bay on the moneyline, arguing the market hasn’t fully caught up to the club’s month-long surge – they’ve chopped a double-digit AL East deficit to 1.5 games. While Detroit is solid on the road, the Rays have dominated at Tropicana and have a massive form edge. He expects a modest price because Jack Flaherty has name recognition, but with the Rays 20-7 in their last 27 overall, he’ll buy the mispricing and lay it with Tampa.

Bamford expects runs in Tropicana. Jack Flaherty is coming off a seven-earned-run drubbing by Cincinnati and now faces a red-hot Rays offense that just erased an 8-0 deficit versus Baltimore. On the other side, Shane Baz owns a 5.36 ERA in the dome and has struggled locating the fastball. With Tampa riding a month-long heater and Detroit’s lineup decent against right-handers, Bamford thinks bookmakers will hang an 8.0 or 8.5 and that’s not high enough – he’s playing the over.

Martin backed the Rays at even money, pointing to both a spot advantage and Shane Baz’s red-hot form. Detroit enters Tropicana after a double-header and travel, carrying a staff that has surrendered 32 runs in its last five games and posting only a slightly-above-.500 road mark. Starter Jack Flaherty just gave up 7 ER, 3 HR, and 5 walks in 4.2 IP versus Cincinnati and was knocked around by Tampa in 2024. Meanwhile, Baz— the 26-year-old former first-rounder— has strung together dominant work since late May; his previous outing produced 6.2 scoreless frames on three hits against the Mets. Tampa owns the hottest offense over the past week (top-10 overall) plus a trustworthy bullpen, so Martin is happy to grab the home side at +100.

Kenny G leaned to the Rays at roughly –108 in what books list as a coin-flip. He trusts Shane Baz, whose last five starts have all turned into Tampa victories, most recently 6⅔ shutout frames at Citi Field. The Rays back him with MLB’s No. 2 bullpen (3.04 ERA) and a top-10 offense (.253 team BA, 7th in runs). Detroit, meanwhile, looks out of sync: Jack Flaherty just surrendered seven earned and three homers to Cincinnati, and the Tigers’ lineup has cooled despite ranking fifth in runs on the season. Detroit still owns the league’s best road record (22-16) and over trend (23-15), yet Kenny thinks recent form plus Tampa’s pitching edge justify a small play on the Rays, passing on the total (8.5) because of conflicting over/under profiles.

Chris Ruffolo backed Tampa Bay on the money-line, laying out several edges. He noted the Rays have won five straight Shane Baz starts despite the right-hander’s shaky 5.36 home ERA, showing the club continually gives him strong run support. Ruffolo contrasted that with Jack Flaherty’s drop-off away from Comerica, pointing out Detroit rarely gets the same results on the road and that Flaherty carries a bloated road ERA compared to his home splits. Detroit’s bullpen enters worn down after Thursday’s double-header and owns a 7.62 ERA over the last week, second-worst in MLB, while the Rays’ relievers sit fourth-best at 1.08. With Tampa’s ‘pen rested and Baz generally getting W support, Ruffolo said the matchup, venue and bullpen disparity all favor a Rays win.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Tampa Bay on the money-line. The Rays have captured five of six and average 8 runs over their last three, while Detroit has dropped three of five. Shane Baz (mis-pronounced Bass in the audio) has allowed just six total runs in his last three outings and only four across his last two home starts. Conversely, Jack Flaherty has coughed up eight runs over his previous three outings and owns a poor track record versus Tampa (seven runs in his last three showings). With the Rays slugging .431 versus righties and the Tigers merely middling at .251 BA against them, the tout expects Tampa to control the opener.