Lonte Smith singled out Brent Rooker as his favorite long-ball bet for Thursday’s Astros–A’s matchup. Smith noted that Houston rookie Spencer Gordon, a left-hander, has been bitten by the gopher ball in two of his last three starts and owns an elevated 1.43 HR/9 on the season. Oakland Coliseum has quietly played homer-friendly in the warmer June weather, and Rooker has already taken advantage—he’s left the yard four times in his last three games, including two multi-homer efforts. Even during Oakland’s earlier slump Rooker’s barrel rate remained north of 15 percent, which Smith believes positions him perfectly to punish Gordon’s high spin four-seam that tends to leak over the inner third to right-handed hitters. With books dangling +425 or better, Smith is firing on Rooker to go deep and would sprinkle the two-plus-homers ladder given Gordon’s recent fly-ball spike.

Lonte Smith is grabbing the Athletics at roughly +115, pointing out that Oakland has quietly won four of five after ending its brutal skid. Starter Mitch Lopez (10 consecutive scoreless innings, 9-plus strikeouts in two of his last three) appears to have figured something out, while Houston’s rookie Spencer Gordon has allowed multiple homers in two of his last three turns and sports an elevated 1.43 HR/9. Even during their losing streak the A’s hit the ball hard, and Smith expects them to put traffic on Gordon early. He admitted Houston is 11 games over .500 and capable of winning in any style, but the Astros’ lineup has occasionally been homer-reliant, something the spacious Coliseum can mitigate. Because Oakland’s bullpen remains shaky he may sprinkle some over 10.5, yet the main play is a straight moneyline stab on a home dog that is swinging the bats well and facing a fly-ball pitcher with gopher-ball issues.

Kenny G leaned to Houston at –130, saying the price is reasonable given the matchup. He pointed out Oakland is just 13-24 at home and 23-14 to the OVER there largely because its bullpen owns an ERA north of 5.00. By contrast, Houston, even in a down year, is a respectable 15-18 on the road and 18-13-2 to the UNDER away, illustrating that its pitching usually travels. Both clubs send raw rookies to the mound, so Kenny suggested a First-5 UNDER as a secondary look to dodge the A’s pen, but he ultimately trusts the deeper Astros lineup (top-10 in wRC+ the last three weeks) and a bullpen that has settled at 3.77 ERA since May 15. With Oakland’s offense still feast-or-famine outside of Brent Rooker and Jacob Wilson, Kenny is willing to lay up to –135 on Houston, grading the Astros a 54% win probability.

Just A Bet Outside threw out rookie Cam Smith as a value bat against southpaw Jacob Lopez and MLB’s worst bullpen. Smith is 7-for-11 (.429) over the last week, has a hit in 9 of 11, and owns a .286 average vs lefties ( .333 on the road, 237 WRC+ split). Lopez surrenders a .289 average and .474 slugging to right-handed hitters, and the A’s relief corps ranks last in ERA. With hitter-friendly Bay Area weather, the tout envisions Smith delivering another multi-hit effort and possible long-ball upside, making him viable for hit props, HR tickets, and DFS stacks.

Drew Martin plans to bet the Astros in the late game as long as the money-line price remains reasonable. Rookie left-hander Colton Gordon boasts a 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first three MLB starts and has posted back-to-back gems. Houston’s bullpen is rolling and the lineup ranks top-five in OPS over the last two weeks. Martin expects them to handle Oakland swing-man Jacob Lopez, who profiles as a replacement-level arm. He leans toward the game total over because of the park, but his primary ticket is Houston to win convincingly.

Just A Bet Outside recommended backing Framber Valdez’s strikeout over at Oakland. The A’s have whiffed at a 30% clip against left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (4th highest). Valdez has rediscovered his swing-and-miss stuff, piling up 30 strikeouts in his last 21 innings and hitting 7+ Ks in six of his past seven starts. His season numbers (96 K in 90 IP) are finally catching up with the recent form, and his K splits are consistent home or away. The tout sees another 7–9 strikeout effort incoming and likes using Framber in prop ladders or as an SP2 in DFS builds.

Jimmy Adams recommended taking Houston at roughly –165 because Framber Valdez versus Luis Severino is a mismatch the market still hasn’t fully priced. Valdez’s last seven starts read 2-2-1-1-3-1 ER and the Astros have won all seven. He ranks in the 94th percentile in overall pitching run value, 97th percentile in ground-ball rate, and is limiting hitters to a .278 wOBA. Meanwhile Severino is wildly volatile—games of 8 ER and 6 ER sandwiched around one good outing versus the light-hitting Royals—and sits near the league bottom in whiff% and K%. Adams doubts he can navigate Houston’s power-heavy lineup, especially in the homer-friendly neutral site park in West Sacramento where Jose Altuve already went deep yesterday. Once the starters leave, the bullpen gap widens: Astros are top-5 in ERA while the A’s bullpen is dead last at nearly 6.00. Oakland also lost 20 of 22 earlier this season, underscoring how fragile they are. Even at –165, Adams believes the Astros money line belongs in every bettor’s portfolio today.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Jose Altuve as another hitter-prop candidate, recommending betting at least one hit and considering the 2+ hits alt line. Altuve is scorching at .429 over the last seven days with hits in 9 of his previous 11 contests and four multi-hit efforts in his past six. Monday he draws either lefty JP Sears or bulk reliever Mitch Spence, both of whom Altuve owns success against—he is 9-for-22 with five extra-base knocks off Sears historically. Regardless of the opener, the Astros will see plenty of the league’s worst bullpen (6.00 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) once Oakland turns to relief. Altuve has shown neutral splits in 2024 (.270+ vs both LHP/RHP), and the warm, marine-layer free conditions at the A’s temporary minor-league venue should aid his line-drive approach. While Altuve’s season-long road average sits at .202, the tout expects positive regression given his .306 career road mark and the hitter-friendly environment. He advised pairing Over 1.5 total bases or a simple hit prop with any main card parlays and flagged Altuve as a strong DFS cash cornerstone.

Dylan Rockford said he is laying the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings. He trusts Lance McCullers, who has yet to allow a run in 17 road innings across three starts this season, to win the early matchup against Mitch Spence. Rockford noted Spence is a converted reliever who is only recently stretching out and is backed by a bullpen that ranks dead last in both ERA and WHIP. Houston’s offense is seeing the ball well after a five-game winning streak in which they swept the Twins and averaged 6.0 runs. By isolating the starters and avoiding Houston’s own shaky pen, Rockford projected Astros –0.5 F5 playable down to –120.