Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Red Sox on the money line, stressing Boston’s superior performance against the spread at Fenway (57.7% cover rate and +2.6 run-line differential) compared to a Dodgers squad that covers only 44.4% of the time on the road. He noted Boston’s 33-21 home record and success as home underdogs (66.7% cover rate). Pitching context also tilts toward Boston: former Dodger Walker Buehler has allowed just six earned runs over his last 18 July innings and may be extra motivated facing his old club, while Dustin May continues to struggle. With L.A. looking shaky since the All-Star break, the tout labeled Boston the sharper side.

Kenny G advised taking Boston –140 with Garrett Crochet on the bump. Crochet is 11-4 with a sparkling 2.19 ERA and has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three outings. He faces a Dodgers lineup that is first in MLB in runs but may again be without Mookie Betts (personal). Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 3.27 ERA) is still effective at 37, yet Kenny called him a mixed bag and noted Los Angeles’ true weakness: a 4.40 bullpen ERA that sits among the worst in baseball. Boston’s relief corps, by contrast, has been top-five all season. The Red Sox bats have cooled (2-9-1-2-9-1-2-6 recent run totals), but Kenny believes they can scratch enough against Kershaw or, more likely, the shaky Dodger pen. With Boston 32-20 at Fenway and the Dodgers only 23-22 on the road, he sees value in the modest favorite price and suggests a sprinkle on a NRFI but makes Red Sox moneyline the primary play.

Mark called Dodgers +125 in Boston a ‘principle bet.’ Any time the perennial NL powerhouse is available at plus money, he shakes hands with the deal. He is not impressed by Garrett Crochet despite the shiny 2.19 ERA and thinks the Red Sox could catch L.A. napping after a cross-country trip. With Clayton Kershaw likely on a managed pitch count but still sporting a sub-3.00 ERA, Mark is willing to live with variance and simply play the number.

Drew Martin backed Boston at –135, laying out several edges. He pointed to Los Angeles’ surprising weakness versus winning clubs (below .500 in those spots) and Boston’s 34-20 record inside Fenway, including a 12-4 heater over their last 16. The pitching matchup seals it for him: 26-year-old Garrett Crochet owns an 11-4 record with a sparkling 165-to-36 K:BB and has allowed just one earned run across 15 innings in his two most recent outings (Rays and Cubs). Meanwhile 37-year-old Clayton Kershaw is maxing out at 4-6 innings and has only 37 strikeouts in 55 frames, numbers Martin believes foreshadow trouble against a rested Sox lineup. Add in what he calls a clear Boston bullpen advantage and he’s willing to lay the short price despite fading a first-place Dodgers club.

Kenny G backed the Red Sox at +105 to upset the visiting Dodgers. He highlighted Boston’s bullpen advantage (top-five ERA) over Los Angeles’ relief unit (4.43 ERA) and rookie starter Emmett Sheehan, who sports a 4.41 ERA and was hammered for seven runs by Milwaukee in his most recent outing. Brayan Bello’s 3.23 ERA and six-inning quality start at Wrigley give Boston the starting-pitching edge. Fenway Park has been friendly to the Sox—they’re 32-20 at home—while the Dodgers are a middling 23-22 on the road. Although L.A. ranks first in runs, they have scored four or fewer in three of the past five games, which Kenny says keeps Boston firmly in striking distance. Between the superior bullpen, strong home record, and a plus price, he believes the Sox "have an excellent shot" to cash.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Teoscar Hernandez under 0.5 runs. Hernandez has failed to cross the plate in nine of his last ten contests, including seven straight, and in 17 of his last 20 (85%). Over an 82-game 2025 sample he has stayed under at a 59% clip, and combining that with 2024 data gives a 58% hit rate across roughly 250 games. Harrelson likes that the outfielder has gone scoreless in nine of his last ten road games and registered just a .250 average in prior meetings with Boston starter Brayan Bello. Splits support the fade as well: Hernandez hits .235 versus right-handed pitching compared to .253 overall, while Bello’s numbers are virtually identical against righties (.243) and overall (.244). Odds have already moved three times Friday morning, signaling market agreement on the under.

Drew Martin made the Red Sox +110 his best bet, citing Brayan Bello’s surge and multiple angles fading the traveling Dodgers. Bello owns a 19-to-2 K-BB ratio and a 2.30 ERA since mid-June, winning three of his last four starts—two coming versus top-tier offenses (Cubs, Rays). Boston is 32-20 at Fenway and 12-4 over its last 16 overall. Conversely, the Dodgers are just 26-28 against winning teams and must fly cross-country for this opener. Rookie Emmet Sheehan (called up largely due to rotation injuries) posted a 4.50 ERA in Triple-A and was rocked for five earned by Milwaukee in his last MLB outing. Martin notes that Boston owns the bullpen edge by most metrics, giving the Sox advantages on the mound and in travel spot.