Calling Miami a live underdog, Chirimbes ignored the 1-6 record and took the +7.5 outright, predicting a 33-31 upset. He expects a pride game from Tua Tagovailoa after a tumultuous week and sees a let-down spot for Atlanta, which turns to Kirk Cousins while rookie Michael Penix Jr. nurses a bone bruise. The change forces the Falcons to shrink their playbook, and Chirimbes believes Miami’s veteran roster capitalizes on the short-notice QB switch.

Burrell recommended Miami +7.5 at Atlanta, stressing that the 1-6 Dolphins are playing loose and unpredictable— a profile he loves when catching points. Despite the record, Mike McDaniel still has elite team speed that can create explosive plays against a Falcons defense vulnerable to them. Meanwhile, Atlanta moves the ball but ranks among the league’s worst in red-zone TD rate, repeatedly settling for field goals. That inefficiency is precisely how favorites win but fail to cover. With the critical half-point hook above a full touchdown, Burrell believes Miami only needs a handful of chunk plays—and a turnover-free afternoon—to sneak in the back door or even steal the game outright.

Hill fired on Bijan Robinson Over 88.5 rushing yards. After being bottled up by San Francisco, Robinson now draws a Miami defense ranked near the bottom in every rushing metric. Hill expects Atlanta to lean on its bell-cow and projects a clear triple-digit yardage ceiling.

Joyner called Bijan Robinson an Offensive Player of the Year candidate and highlighted Drake London’s recent workhorse target share. Atlanta’s defense ranks near the top of the league in pressure rate and explosive-pass prevention, a perfect match against a Miami club that looked disinterested in its coach while being man-handled by Cleveland. Believing talent and motivation both sit with Atlanta, Joyner assigned a confidence level 5 to the Falcons –7 ticket.

Kelly passed along that the SportsLine computer has Atlanta covering the ‑7.5 number in a majority of simulations. Miami is reeling after a 31-6, four-turnover face-plant against Cleveland and now owns bottom-eight league ranks in points scored, yards gained, scoring defense and total defense, plus the third-worst turnover differential (-6). Tua Tagovailoa has thrown three interceptions in back-to-back games, a feat last matched by Philip Rivers in 2019. Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. is markedly better in the dome, sporting a 95.2 career passer rating at home vs 67.8 on the road; the model’s median outcome gives him three more TD passes than picks Sunday while projecting an even TD:INT line for Tagovailoa. With Atlanta’s offense expected to capitalize on short fields and Miami’s defense leaking everywhere, the Falcons clear the spread in over half the simulations.

Tuley jumped on Dolphins +7.5 after the line crossed the key number. The look-ahead was Falcons ‑6.5, yet Atlanta was bet past a touchdown even though it lost 20-10 at San Francisco. Miami’s 31-6 debacle in Cleveland created the move, but Tuley expects a max-effort response with coach Mike McDaniel and several starters under employment pressure. He doubts Atlanta’s ability to cover as sizeable favorites, citing the Falcons’ own inconsistency—impressive 24-14 upset of Buffalo followed by a flop in Santa Clara.