Billy Ward went the opposite direction, locking in Radtke pre-fight at +140 rather than waiting. After digging into tape he discovered Radtke is a long-time BJJ black belt who competes regularly on the grappling circuit and has yet to surrender a takedown in the Octagon. Ward therefore questions whether Malott even owns the wrestling advantage books are pricing in. If the fight devolves into a wild kick-boxing match—and both men average sub-50% striking defense—Ward sees it as a pure coin flip, so taking +140 is an auto-bet. He is comfortable riding the moneyline alone but will add small sprinkles on the KO should the price touch +400.

Sean Zerillo grabbed Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke at +145 and sprinkled KO (+360) plus R2 (10-1) and R3 (13-1) props, but his main plan is to hammer Radtke live after Round 1 when Mike Malott’s cardio historically nosedives. Zerillo reminded listeners of Malott’s meltdown versus Neil Magny—14 dominant minutes followed by a complete gas-out—and pointed out that nine of Malott’s 10 pro wins came inside five minutes. Radtke, a BJJ black belt with solid power, has never been finished and should take over once scrambles get sweaty. Zerillo projects Malott to win the first frame roughly 60% of the time, making a live price of +250 or better on Radtke extremely attractive.

Bisping expects Mike Malott to notch another finish in Montreal. He reminded listeners that Malott had a four-fight UFC streak (including Contender Series) snapped by Neil Magny but immediately rebounded against Trevin Giles. With four knockouts and six submissions on his record, Malott is, per Bisping, "as well-rounded as they come." Charles Radke is riding high after a first-round stoppage of Matt Semelsberger and enters angry over Canadian fans booing the U.S. anthem, yet Bisping thinks Malott’s athleticism and submission threat will overwhelm Radke once fists start flying.

DFS Army recommended keeping Charles Radtke in tournament pools as a high-leverage pivot to mega-chalk favorite Mike Malott. The hosts love the inside-the-distance prop and called the matchup "binary": either Malott lands takedowns and scores huge, or the fight stays standing and Radtke—who "swings bombs"—finishes the Canadian. They noted Malott’s ownership will be massive after his 100% career finish rate, so a sub-$8K first-round KO from Radtke would outright nuke chalk lineups and clear 100 DraftKings points. While they still project a round-3 KO win for Malott and will be overweight on him, they plan to exceed field exposure on Radtke because “a Radke win is not going to sink me—it could win me the slate.”

DFS Army backed Mike Malott at $8,900 as a must-roster leverage play versus Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke. The matchup carries a –210 inside-the-distance prop, and Malott owns a 100% finish rate, cashing all 10 professional wins inside two rounds. The hosts brushed off the narrative that he "quit" against Neil Magny, pointing out Magny’s clinch game frustrates nearly everyone, and instead focused on Malott’s submission arsenal that tapped both Mickey Gall and Trevin Giles. Radtke throws heat but was out-struck by Blood Diamond and needed nine minutes of top control just to eke out a decision. DFS Army expects Malott to wrestle early, hunting a guillotine or arm-triangle that would again deliver 90-plus DraftKings points. They will keep some Radtke shares for leverage but project Malott to be one of the slate’s highest-owned favorites—and worth it.

The Weasle warned bettors that a late Charles Radtke finish is a real path despite favoring Mike Malott overall. He reminded listeners that Malott looked spectacular when he destroyed Neil Magny in one round, but immediately emptied the gas tank and lost the next two. Radtke, by contrast, does not fade, owns crisp body work and counter hooks, and carries power deep into fights. Malott will try to bank the first two rounds with takedowns and top control, yet if his cardio again bottoms out, Radtke’s killer instinct and superior fundamentals on the feet give him a live round-three knockout shot. Because only Blood Diamond has even attempted to wrestle Radtke in the UFC, his defensive grappling remains an unknown, but The Weasle believes the cardio dynamic alone makes the Radtke-RD3 KO prop an intriguing hedge for bettors holding Malott tickets.

The Weasle leaned toward Mike Malott, noting his grappling arsenal should trump Charles Radtke’s crisp boxing. Radtke has only faced one takedown attempt in the UFC—and it came from Blood Diamond—so his defensive wrestling is unproven. Malott averages 1.8 subs per 15 minutes, rag-dolled Neil Magny early, and can mix double-legs with opportunistic back takes. Radtke’s body work and counter right hand make the stand-up competitive, but Weasle thinks Malott’s A-side path (wrestle, advance, hunt chokes) and Canadian crowd boost lead to a money-line play on Malott, likely via submission or control-heavy decision.

Jeff Fox joined Vreeland on Mike “Proper” Malott, emphasizing the Canadian’s 10 finishes in 11 victories and cleaner striking mechanics compared to Radke’s wild overhands. Fox views Radke’s recent wins as inflated by soft matchmaking and notes Malott’s only UFC loss came after he gassed while trying to finish Neil Magny— a lesson he believes Malott has addressed. With Malott sporting a 0.79 significant-strike differential and the better submission arsenal, Fox expects either a club-and-sub or straight KO. He recommends the inside-the-distance prop (+130) over the ‑175 moneyline for extra value but still tags Malott as a strong parlay piece.

Gumby Vreeland laid ‑175 on Mike Malott, predicting the Canadian will expose Charles “Chuck Buffalo” Radke’s reliance on single big punches. Malott owns 10 finishes in 11 wins, blends sharp boxing with a slick submission game, and has beaten stronger competition, including Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt. Vreeland pointed out that Radke’s UFC victories came against opponents on the verge of release (Gilbert Urbina, Matt Semelsberger) and that his defensive grappling remains untested. Malott, the larger man by four inches of height, should be able to hurt Radke on the feet or clamp onto a choke if the American panics. Vreeland prefers Malott inside-the-distance at +130 but is comfortable with the moneyline as well.

Paul Shaughnessy is laying the –175 on Mike Malott even though the market steamed toward Charles Radke. Shaughnessy likened the fight to "bull versus matador," expecting Radke to charge forward behind his dangerous left hook while Malott circles, picks spots, and mixes takedowns. He acknowledged Malott’s prior knockout loss at extreme weight cuts but noted the Canadian now looks healthy at 170 and carries multiple paths to victory—technical boxing from range, reactive doubles, and a slick back-take game. Shaughnessy also likes Malott’s headspace: the Canadian dismissed Radke’s nationalist trash talk in interviews and seemed focused on executing a calm game plan in front of a home crowd. With Malott owning more finish equity and Radke needing one perfect punch, Shaughnessy is willing to fade the line movement and bet the favorite straight rather than trust Radke’s chaos.

Cody Saftic advised betting Mike Malott around –175 despite the late dog money on Charles Radke. Saftic expects the 6'1" Canadian to lean on his black-belt grappling and sizeable height/reach edge against the 5'9" Radke, who has faced almost no legitimate wrestlers since Jonathan Pearsma repeatedly grounded him on the regionals. Malott went 4-for-6 on takedowns against Neil Magny—"a gatekeeper to the stars"—and Saftic believes the cardio dump in that decision loss forced Malott to recalibrate his pacing. With Team Niagara Top-Team dialing in its wrestling-first game plans (Jasmine Jasudavicius, Serhiy Sidey, etc.), Saftic expects an early level change, top pressure, and possible submission once Radke tires from fighting a bigger man underneath. Because the line has slipped from –210 to –175, Saftic sees value in a money-line bet and a small sprinkle on the Malott submission prop north of +300.

Although Millz Young ultimately picks Mike Malott to finish Charles "Chuck Buffalo" Radtke in Round 2, he stresses caution because both fighters are battle-tested dogs. Malott’s explosive knees, elbows, and opportunistic submissions have produced early finishes in most of his wins, but Radtke offers durable boxing, sturdy wrestling, and refuses to quit. Millz expects Malott’s athleticism to show early and believes a well-timed knee or club-and-sub sequence will break Radtke, yet he is not confident enough to make Malott a parlay anchor. Straight play on Malott ITD is his suggested approach; otherwise leave the bout off tickets.

Bedtime MMA sided with Mike Malott by 29-28 decision in what he expects to be a wild scramble-heavy welterweight battle. He acknowledged Radtke’s punching power but dismissed his resume, noting Radtke “went life-and-death with Blood Diamond” while Malott’s embarrassing KO loss to Neil Magny is now priced in. Malott is the bigger man despite a past at 145 and should dictate distance with front kicks, a pumping jab, and punishing calf kicks that target Radtke’s boxing stance. The tout added Malott has more paths—slick counter boxing, an opportunistic guillotine if Radtke shoots, and overall faster hand speed. Expect both to rock each other, but Malott’s range weapons and submission threats tip the judges.

MMA Guru doubled-down on his earlier Radtke pick but moved the finish window up, now calling for a first-round TKO of Mike Malott. He said Radtke will immediately take center cage and turn the Canadian crowd’s “Let’s go Mikey” chants against Malott by forcing a dog-fight in the pocket. Guru highlighted Malott’s historically fragile nose—broken by Mickey Gall—and his 46 % significant-strike defense, noting that once the nose starts bleeding the favorite tends to panic-shoot sloppy takedowns (only 0.63 attempts per 15 minutes). Radtke’s powerful lead hook has produced three of his last four stoppages, and Guru expects it to land on the break when Malott bails from clinches. Because Malott rarely grapples offensively and Radtke embraces chaos, Guru is betting both the moneyline and sprinkling the Round 1 TKO prop for plus money.

MMA Guru recommended betting Charles Radtke by knockout, calling him a live underdog against Canadian crowd-favorite Mike Malott. Guru highlighted Malott’s fragile nose—broken versus Mickey Gall—and his preference for kicking at range. Radtke, listed at 5'9" but reportedly closer to 5'11", will not concede much size and carries a quick, powerful lead left hook that has produced three of his last four finishes. Guru pointed to Malott’s 46 % significant-strike defense and the way he backed straight to the fence when pressured by Gall; Radtke lands 4.7 strikes per minute and thrives in pocket brawls, busting opponents with volume once he smells blood. Because Malott rarely initiates grappling (0.63 takedown attempts per 15 minutes), Guru doubts he can exploit Radtke’s ground gaps. He envisions Radtke walking him down, splitting the guard with jabs, then detonating a hook that crumples Malott somewhere in Round 2, making the +350 KO ticket especially appealing.

Kunath called the betting line on Mike Malott "stunning" and took Charles Radtke by knockout. He argued Malott has never recovered mentally from the gas-out, ground-and-pound loss to Neil Magny: in the Trevin Giles fight Malott was "as gun-shy as they come," allowing Giles—normally finished in every loss—to survive easily. Radtke, dubbed "Chuck Buffalo," is the nastier, heavier hitter and owns a better signature win (Matthew Semelsberger) than anything on Malott’s resume. Kunath reminded listeners Malott was tagged repeatedly by Mickey Gall before landing his own finish, foreshadowing problems once Radtke’s power connects. With Radtke’s only UFC loss coming via a liver knee from Carlos Prates, the tout sees durability on his side as well. Play is Radtke ML plus KO prop.

Bedtime MMA tabbed the Mike Malott vs Charlie Radke welterweight clash as his Fight of the Night pick. He expects Malott to push an all-action pace in front of his home crowd after an embarrassing TKO loss to Neil Magny the last time he fought in Canada. Radke, meanwhile, will be motivated to spoil the party and "drop bombs on Canada" in his post-fight interview. With Joel Alvarez off the card and few other high-octane match-ups remaining, Bedtime sees this bout as the most likely to deliver the kind of back-and-forth violence that DraftKings scorers love and the UFC bonus committee rewards.