The Bettor Mark leaned toward backing Milwaukee at +150 in Philadelphia. He pointed out that the Brew Crew have hung 24 runs on the board through the first two games of the set – including a 16-2 outburst – while Philadelphia’s thinned-out lineup keeps stranding traffic despite sporadic pops from Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm. Mark added that left-hander Jose Quintana is quietly 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA, so the pitching matchup versus Ranger Suarez is closer than the moneyline implies. Because Suarez’s price has ballooned to –178 and Milwaukee’s sticks remain white-hot, Mark said he “doesn’t want to fade the Brewers” and would rather scoop the plus money than lay the chalk or mess with an uncertain total.

Lonte Smith prefers the first-five innings under because both starters can miss bats and one of them works quickly enough to keep the scoreboard quiet. Milwaukee’s Dylan Patrick has yet to allow more than three runs in any start and owns a sub-3.00 ERA despite rarely pitching beyond the fifth. Jesus Luzardo, meanwhile, has given up only two total runs across his last three outings versus St. Louis, the Dodgers, and Atlanta while striking out 10+ in back-to-back appearances. Smith concedes the Phillies’ bats are hot, but he trusts Luzardo to handle them early and notes Patrick’s shortened outings limit their second-time-through familiarity. He would play under 4.5 at standard juice.

Scott Reichel is fine paying the tax on Philadelphia, grabbing the run line at roughly +105. He raved about Jesus Luzardo’s flawless 5-0 record and 2.15 ERA (1.90 at home) and believes the southpaw’s 10+ K upside neutralizes Milwaukee’s platoon advantage. Brewers rookie Dylan Patrick has been a nice surprise (2.97 ERA) but rarely works past five innings — three of his last four starts did not reach the fifth — meaning the thin Milwaukee bullpen will shoulder heavy work. Philadelphia owns MLB’s best home record and, with their offense averaging 5.5 runs per game at Citizens Bank, Reichel projects a comfortable two-plus-run victory.

He grabbed the under, citing Milwaukee’s 32-22-3 under mark and Philadelphia’s 30-25-1 trend. Brewers games average just 8.62 runs, Phillies 8.95, but both rise in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park—still below the posted total. Luzardo’s slider/change combo has suppressed hard contact all season, and Patrick’s underlying metrics (3.48 xERA) are better than his surface numbers. With both offenses middle-of-pack and two reliable bullpens, he forecasted a 4-3 type of contest.

He locked in the Phillies moneyline behind Jesus Luzardo. The lefty has struck out double-digit hitters in consecutive starts and owns dominant home splits. Chad Patrick is winless in four straight, failing to survive five innings in three of them, and Milwaukee sits 11-18 on the highway. The Brewers have struggled versus left-handers recently, while Philadelphia’s sixth-ranked offense (4.82 RPG) offers ample support. Luzardo’s uptick in swinging-strike rate and the Brewers’ 24.6% K-rate versus southpaws make Philly the clear side.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to Philadelphia despite Taijuan Walker’s up-and-down year, noting that Milwaukee’s lineup is so punch-less he joked he could "pitch scoreless innings against them right now." The Brewers are likely opening with DL Hall before turning to Quinn Priester, a combo he trusts even less than Walker plus a tired Phillies bullpen coming off yesterday’s double-header. He believes the market price (roughly –135 to –145) already bakes in Philly’s bullpen fatigue, giving bettors a fair number on the clearly superior offense. He also endorsed the full-game over 9 runs: if Walker’s command deserts him the Brewers could finally show some life, while Bryce Harper & company should tag Hall/Priester early. In short, Phillies ML and a lean to the over make his card.

Kenny G leaned toward laying the −144 with Philadelphia despite noting the Phillies will be playing their third game in roughly 48 hours. Taijuan Walker (2-3, 2.97 ERA) has been solid overall and draws a Brewers offense that ranks 28th in slugging and 24th in batting average, despite scoring 6-5-3 runs in its last three outings. Milwaukee sends 24-year-old Quinn Priester (1-2, 4.23 ERA) to the hill and backs him with a shaky 4.55 bullpen ERA. Philadelphia’s relief corps is also rough (4.61), but Kenny trusts the lineup that sits 4th in average, 9th in runs, and 3rd in OBP, with Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner swinging hot bats and a possible Bryce Harper return. The Phillies are 18-8 at Citizens Bank Park versus Milwaukee’s 11-18 road record. Kenny mentioned a slight lean to the under 9, yet his actionable call was the Phillies moneyline—just “very, very cautiously.”

Mark recommended laying the –1.5 run line with Philadelphia at +145. He cited two main edges: Milwaukee’s league-worst road hitting splits and a pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker versus Colin Hall that tilts toward the Phils. Philadelphia’s lineup typically “takes off at home,” and the Brewers could be flat in a travel-lull spot after a long trip. For bettors wanting a slightly safer angle, he mentioned the ‘Phillies to not bat in the 9th’ market, but the official stance is the plus-money run line.

Lindquist advised sprinkling Brice Turang 2-plus hits at anything north of +180. Taijuan Walker is carrying a 334 xwOBA, an anemic 16.6% strike-out rate and a bloated 12% walk rate, making him hittable for contact-oriented lefties. Turang should again lead off, has a 274 xBA, and benefits from the platoon edge. With decent Milwaukee weather expected, Lindquist thinks Turang can leg out a multi-hit night and provide cheap DFS value as well.

Lonte Smith is grabbing Milwaukee on the first-five moneyline while sprinkling the full-game over. He called Taijuan Walker a pure contact pitcher—under five strikeouts in five of his last six—and expects the Brewers, who are top-10 in hard-hit rate this month, to string hits early. Priester is dealing with a blister but still owns a 2.53 ERA and has surrendered two runs or fewer in four straight, three of those one-run efforts. Lonte trusts him more than a fatigued Philly staff that just navigated 18 innings on Thursday. With Milwaukee coming off two comeback wins in Boston and sitting 7-3 in their last ten, he projects the Brewers to be up a run or two after five before bullpens and the hitter-friendly park inflate the scoreboard late.

LM Tipster laid Phillies ‑1.5 because Taijuan Walker (2-3, 2.97 ERA) has quietly posted a 55% ground-ball rate and faces a Milwaukee lineup that is bottom-five in wRC+ vs split-finger fastballs. Pirates call-up Quinn Priester (4.23 ERA) has issued 4.1 BB/9, so LM projects traffic for Philadelphia’s power bats in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

LM Tipster took Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at +350. Schwarber owns a .358 ISO against right-handers and draws Quinn Priester’s 1.9 HR/9 mark. The wind is blowing out to right at 8 mph and Schwarber has homered in three of his past five games when the Phillies’ implied total tops five runs.

Shubham Soni said Kyle Schwarber is a top home-run prop on Friday because Milwaukee is rolling out a full bullpen game—exactly the scenario the slugger historically punishes. Schwarber already has 19 bombs in 2025 and enters with a 59.7% hard-hit rate, a thunderous 93.8 mph average exit velocity, and a 17.4% barrel rate per plate appearance. Soni noted that those metrics all sit in the 95th percentile or better league-wide and that Schwarber’s HR/PA jumps nearly 20% when the opposing starter fails to complete three innings. With the Brewers piecing innings together and the Phillies installed as slight road favorites, Soni likes the +230 odds at DraftKings for Schwarber to leave the yard at least once.