Kenny G called Houston –130 "very, very likely" to land in his pinned comment. The Astros have won four straight and are 26-13 at Minute Maid, while Minnesota limps in on a three-game skid. Simeon Woods Richardson’s 5.74 ERA and 7-run blow-up versus Texas make him a prime target for an Astros offense that ranks third in batting average and is finally stringing together crooked numbers (3-10-4-10-2 runs last five). Rookie lefty Brandon Walter has delivered back-to-back quality starts—five shutout frames at Tampa and six innings of two-run ball against Cleveland—and hands the ball to a bullpen sporting a 3.23 ERA (6th best). The Twins’ relief unit has regressed to 3.78, and their lineup has fallen to 17th in runs scored after averaging just 2.8 runs during the losing streak. Kenny projects Houston to control the game wire-to-wire and sees value down to –145.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Houston on the moneyline. The Astros have won four of the last five against Minnesota and face a Twins club that is 7-14 as a road underdog. Minnesota’s pitching staff is "battered and declining," while Houston’s arms are rounding into form. Simon Woods Richardson looked shaky in his return to the rotation, and the tout doubts he can succeed in Minute Maid Park versus a potent lineup. Given Minnesota’s streaky offense and hostile environment, Houston is the play.

Kenny G loves Houston at –125, arguing the line should be closer to –150 given Hunter Brown’s 8-3 record and 1.82 ERA. Brown just fanned nine Guardians despite walking five and earlier held Minnesota to two runs over six frames. The Astros have erupted for 24 runs in three games and boast an 8th-ranked team batting average. Their bullpen owns a sturdy 3.26 ERA and the club is 24-13 at Minute Maid. Joe Ryan is solid (2.96 ERA) but was hit for four earned by Houston in April and the Twins bullpen has drifted to 3.76. Minnesota’s offense has totaled only 17 runs in its last six and travels poorly (16-20 road record). Kenny called the Astros a "slam-dunk" side and expects Brown to outduel Ryan once again.

Guy Boston Sports recommended playing Jake Meyers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –155. In seven career plate appearances against Joe Ryan, Meyers is 0-for-7. Ryan has strangled right-handed bats all season, holding them to a .184 average and .265 wOBA while his four-seam and slider each carry sub-.300 expected wOBAs. Meyers’ own batting average dips against righties, and his contact quality versus premium fastballs ranks in MLB’s 20th percentile. The tout acknowledged the juice but believes it’s justified, suggesting it could be tossed into parlay or DFS pick-em cards for added value.

Guy Boston Sports grabbed Minnesota at +115 against Houston, citing a sneaky pitch-type edge. Hunter Brown leans on his four-seam 58 % of the time, and the Twins sit top-10 in wOBA versus heaters over the last 30 days. The tout thinks Brown is due for a "stub-your-toe" outing after allowing only two runs in his last 13 frames. Joe Ryan gives the Twins their best chance to compete and owns a 2.96 xFIP at Target Field this season. Both bullpens are reasonably rested, so he also leaned full-game Under 7 or an F5 Under if books hang 3.5 at standard juice. Bottom line: take the plus money with Minnesota and consider pairing it with an under-lean in what profiles as a tight, low-scoring matchup.

Despite Joe Ryan’s six-game personal win streak, the tout is backing Houston because Hunter Brown looks like a Cy Young candidate (1.82 ERA, 0.96 WHIP overall; 0.88 ERA, .152 BAA in 30.2 IP at home). Brown’s whiff-heavy profile preys on a Twins lineup that strikes out frequently and has gone ice-cold the past two weeks. Minnesota’s bullpen is wobbling on the road, while the Astros are playing their best baseball of the year at Dakin Park and have historically barreled Ryan. All arrows point to the Astros moneyline.

Brad’s favorite play of the slate is Astros 1st-5 moneyline at roughly ‑120. Houston is 20-8 in its last 28 home games and, in Brad’s words, "looked damn good yesterday." He trusts Hunter Brown—2.89 ERA and 10.4 K/9 at Minute Maid—to set the tone. Although Joe Ryan counters for Minnesota, Brad noted the Astros’ .349 wOBA against righties at home and a bullpen he wants no part of. Limiting exposure to five innings captures Houston’s starting-pitching edge while avoiding any late-inning variance.

B Wade took Jeremy Pena over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Pena has cleared this in 15 of 19, missing only twice over his last 15. He squares off with Chris Paddack, owner of a 3.50 ERA who was "cooked" by Houston in their last meeting and yanked after four innings. Pena actually hits righties (.316) almost as well as his overall .322 average, so the platoon is no concern. With a red-hot stick and a middling pitcher on the hill, Wade is happy to ride the heater at plus payout.

B Wade said to smash the over on 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs for Carlos Correa. Correa has cleared this mark in 9 of his last 10, hovering at exactly two nearly every night. Friday he gets rookie left-hander Colton Gordon, whose 24 MLB innings come with a 5-plus ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Correa owns a .317 average against lefties versus .250 overall, and four of his six homers have come in just 41 left-handed at-bats (one bomb every 10 ABs). Against a struggling southpaw and with plus money available, Wade likes Correa to keep the multi-stat roll going.

Guy Boston Sports advised taking the Twins money line as long as you can grab a price in the mid-140s. He prefers Bailey Ober’s fastball/slider/change mix to Patrick Corbin’s sinker and highlighted recent pitch-type splits: over the last 30 days Texas ranks 25th versus fastballs, 26th versus changeups, and 22nd versus sliders, while Minnesota rates 1st against sinkers – Corbin’s primary offering. Forecasts call for rain and winds blowing in, suppressing run scoring and making a tight game more likely, which he believes favors the Twins’ superior pitching. He also leaned under 8.5 because of that weather, but the stronger play in his eyes is Minnesota at the reduced Novig price (-147 compared to other books at ‑160/-170).

Guy Boston Sports backed Bailey Ober to stay under 2.5 earned runs at ‑145 on DraftKings. He pointed to Ober holding opponents below that number in 7 of his last 10 starts (70%) while allowing just 1.9 ER per outing this season. Broadening the sample, the right-hander has cashed this under in 9 of 13 starts overall (69%). Even last year he handled Texas twice, surrendering exactly two earned runs in both May 24 and August 15 meetings. The host added that the current Rangers lineup ranks bottom-5 in every major split versus right-handed pitching both season-long and over the past 30 games, giving Ober a soft landing spot after a blip in Toronto. With a friendly matchup, strong recent form, and historical success, the tout likes the under despite the juiced price.