Kenny G said the Pirates are worth laying the –155 because Paul Skenes is in a smash spot and everything around him lines up. Skenes owns a 1.91 ERA and has been even sharper since the All-Star break, blanking Detroit over six innings last time out and carving up Arizona for 6.2 scoreless frames in late May. Arizona’s lineup has fallen off a cliff after deadline sell-offs, scoring 0, 1, 3 and 1 runs in its last four games and managing just four hits in Saturday’s 2-0 loss. Zac Gallen, once reliable, has surrendered six earned runs in back-to-back outings (vs Houston and the Angels) and sports a bloated 5.58 ERA. The Snakes’ bullpen is "atrocious," while Pittsburgh’s relief corps has quietly improved to a 3.84 ERA. The Pirates have won four of five and are 30-25 at PNC Park; Arizona is 25-26 on the road. Kenny mentioned a lean to NRFI but ultimately labeled the Pittsburgh moneyline his preferred play, calling the price "justifiable" given the current trajectories of both clubs.

The tout endorsed Pittsburgh on the money line, citing Paul Skeens’ 0.00 ERA in his last two PNC Park starts and only one run allowed in three of his previous four outings. Arizona enters 1-3 in its last four, distracted by looming trades, and starter Zac Gallen has surrendered five-plus runs in four of his past six appearances (including six earned earlier this week). Pittsburgh is 4-games over .500 at home, while the Diamondbacks’ bats have produced just 13 runs across their previous five contests. In a likely low-scoring affair, two or three Pirate runs should be enough behind their ace.

B Wade targeted Corbin Carroll for over 1.5 total bases even though he draws rookie sensation Paul Skenes. Carroll is 3-for-6 off Skenes, and two of those knocks went for extra bases, which immediately cash the ticket. Wade noted that Pittsburgh games with Skenes on the mound tend to be lower scoring, so he prefers isolating Carroll’s power/speed combo in the total-bases market rather than relying on runs or RBIs. The miniature sample carries weight because of the quality of contact, and Carroll’s elite speed adds triple potential if he can find a gap.

Kenny G wants to run it back on Arizona at –130, trusting Merrill Kelly to handle a punch-less Pittsburgh lineup. Kelly owns a 9-5 record with a 3.32 ERA and hasn’t surrendered more than three earned in any of his last five starts. The Diamondbacks’ fourth-ranked offense in runs scored and improving bullpen (combined on a shutout yesterday) should give him cover. Meanwhile Andrew Heaney carries a 5.03 ERA, is 4-9 on the year, and has been torched in four of his last five outings—including a late-May shelling by these same D-backs that ended 5-0. Pittsburgh remains dead last in both runs and slugging, so even a steadier bullpen probably cannot save them. Kenny notes the pricing disparity (D-backs –130, Pirates +114) is surprising given Arizona’s statistical edge and expects Arizona to “jump all over Heaney” and win comfortably in nine innings—no extra-inning magic required.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Arizona’s money line because Merrill Kelly has allowed two earned or fewer in three straight starts, whereas Andrew Heaney has yielded 14 runs across his last three turns. With Pittsburgh ranking last in MLB scoring and Kelly in form, the tout sees the Diamondbacks as the stronger play despite PNC Park’s slight home-field edge.

Jay Yang recommended taking the under 8.5 runs in the Diamondbacks-Pirates matchup on July 26. He pointed to both starters trending up: Merrill Kelly looked sharp in his first outing back (6 IP, 3 H, 5 K, 2 ER) and Andrew Heaney has given up only three earned runs over his last three starts combined. Yang added that both lineups have been inconsistent and the total is slightly inflated because of familiar names rather than current form. He emphasized the Diamondbacks’ recent trade of Josh Naylor to Seattle, stripping roughly 45–60 RBI and 10 homers from the heart of Arizona’s order and forcing unproven replacements like Pavin Smith and Tim Tawa into key spots. Fewer left-handed power threats plus improved pitching equals fewer runs, so Yang advises betting the under as long as 8.5 remains available and confirming listed pitchers before wagering.

Brad Pick Dawgz backed the Diamondbacks on the moneyline, calling it a fair price against a Pirates club he labeled "ass." His confidence stems from two angles: (1) Pittsburgh has dropped eight straight home games versus NL West opponents, a trend he views as indicative of a talent gap, and (2) Andrew Heaney takes the ball for the Bucs, and Brad expects Arizona’s lineup to "smack up" the left-hander. With the D-backs fielding the better roster and the Pirates mired in a specific home losing skid, Brad considers laying the juice worthwhile.

Lonte Smith went the other way, grabbing Arizona –125 behind Ryne Nelson’s current form. Nelson has authored a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last seven starts and already blanked this very lineup for 6⅔ scoreless innings back in May. Smith noted that Pittsburgh’s offense still sits dead last in MLB in runs per game despite the sweep of Detroit, and rookie Quinn Burrows rarely works deep (sub-5.0 IP average) which would expose Pittsburgh’s middle relievers. Even if Arizona is shopping pieces, Smith trusts Nelson’s strike-throwing (5.5% walk rate during the streak) to control a weak lineup and believes one or two early crooked numbers will be enough to cash the short road price.

Scott Reichel said to grab Pittsburgh at +105 because the market is still pricing the Pirates like an automatic fade even though they just swept Detroit and have quietly played above .500 at PNC Park. Reichel admitted Ryne Nelson is the better starter on paper but countered that Nelson’s own club is actively shopping veterans—Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez and possibly Merrill Kelly—creating a clubhouse in sell-mode. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has an elite ninth-inning anchor again with David Bednar posting a 0.90 ERA over the last two months. Reichel trusts that bullpen/effort combination more than an Arizona roster waiting for trade calls, so he is willing to overlook the modest pitching disadvantage and take plus money on a motivated home side.

Kenny G advised backing the Diamondbacks at -120 with Ryne Nelson on the mound. Nelson owns a 3.52 ERA and Arizona is 4-1 in his last five starts, including six shut-out frames against St. Louis his last time out. He also blanked Pittsburgh over 6⅔ innings in late May. On the other side, Mike Burrows carries a 4.70 ERA and the Pirates have dropped four of his last five outings; when he faced Arizona earlier this year he surrendered five runs in 3⅓ innings. Kenny highlighted how the Pirates offense remains dead-last in MLB in both runs scored and slugging despite a recent sweep of Detroit, while the Diamondbacks still rank fourth in runs and ninth in batting average. Pittsburgh’s bullpen (3.93 ERA) is merely average and Arizona’s relief issues are mitigated by the massive starting-pitcher edge. With the motivation of climbing back to .500 after being swept by Houston and a short -120 price, Kenny labeled the D-backs his preferred side.

Lindquist grabbed Pittsburgh at +111 on Novig, arguing Ryne Nelson’s underlying metrics make Arizona over-valued on the road. Nelson’s 91 mph four-seamer and lack of a put-away secondary pitch have produced a 4.90 xERA and only a 17 % whiff rate. In contrast, 25-year-old Pirates righty Mike Burrows flashes a plus changeup (positive run value on Baseball Savant) that should neutralize Arizona’s lefty-heavy lineup inside pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Lindquist added that Pittsburgh’s young offense is finally ‘coming to life,’ giving the Bucs enough run support to exploit Nelson’s contact profile. He believes the market should be closer to +140 on Arizona, so the current number provides clear closing-line value.

Eric Lindquist grabbed Pittsburgh at +111 on the money-line against Arizona and called it one of the sharper value spots on Friday’s card. He does not trust Ryne Nelson despite the rookie’s flashy Stuff+ grade on his four-seam; Nelson’s average fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and Lindquist thinks anything that doesn’t miss bats will get punished in the spacious gaps of PNC Park. On the other side, 25-year-old Mike Burrows owns a plus run-value on his change-up in Baseball Savant’s model, a pitch Lindquist believes matches up perfectly with a Diamondbacks order that struggles versus firm off-speed. He also noted that the Pirates lineup has quietly "come to life" over the past week, making the home side far more dangerous than market perception. All in, he projected the true line closer to +140 for Arizona, giving Pittsburgh meaningful closing line value at any plus-money number.