Kenny G urged listeners to pounce on the Tigers at –180 because it’s “Happy Skubal Day.” Tarik Skubal is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA, has fanned 26 and issued zero walks over his last three starts, and Detroit has won four of his past five outings. The left-hander dominated Baltimore in late April (6 IP, 0 ER, 11 K). Kenny is not worried about Detroit’s 3.53 bullpen ERA and believes their top-10 offense rebounds after a one-run clunker. Meanwhile, Dean Kremer sports a 4.98 ERA, was drilled for five runs by Oakland last week, and coughed up five runs in 5.2 innings the last time he saw these Tigers. The Orioles lineup remains anemic (25th in runs, 26th in OBP) and their bullpen is fifth-worst in MLB. Given all those edges, Kenny considers Detroit a strong candidate for his daily “lock,” preferring the straight moneyline over the total or a riskier NRFI play.

Martin took Detroit -1.5 (-105) at Camden Yards, highlighting a massive pitching mismatch. Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal has rattled off three consecutive starts of 7+ innings with just one total earned run and an absurd 26:0 K:BB. Earlier this season he blanked Baltimore for six innings with an 11:0 K:BB. Dean Kremer counters with a 5.00 ERA and was tagged for five earned by Detroit in their first meeting, recording more walks than strikeouts (4–3). The Tigers own MLB’s best record (44-24) and have won 9 of their last 12 games by at least two runs, while Baltimore sits at the AL East cellar and is 12-18 at home. Detroit also carries the sizable bullpen edge. Given the Tigers’ habit of winning by margin, Martin prefers the reduced juice on the run line.

It’s The Final Round said Riley Greene is a plus EV play to simply record a hit on Thursday. The tout pointed out that Baltimore starter Dean Kremer has surrendered a .400 batting average to left-handed hitters over his last three appearances. Greene owns a .304 average across 27 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching in the past 10 days. Although Greene has logged only six hits in his last nine games, five of those outings were multi-hit efforts, suggesting boom potential. The analyst likes pairing Greene’s "to record a hit" prop with another hitter in a parlay but sees standalone value as well.

Just A Bet Outside backed Detroit on the run line at -1.5, -108. He said Tarik Skubal is an impossible matchup for a Baltimore lineup that still owns an 18 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last month and ranks eighth-worst in slugging and fourth-worst in ISO power during that span. Skubal’s own form is absurd—one earned run allowed in his last 23.2 innings with a 105:7 K:BB ratio on the season and an 11-strikeout, six-shutout-inning gem against these same Orioles earlier this year. Dean Kremer, meanwhile, owns a 3.31 AVG and .550 SLG allowed to lefties plus a 1.58 WHIP in that split, a brutal profile versus Detroit’s wave of left-handed bats (Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, Zach McKinstry). The host added that nine of the Tigers’ last 12 wins have been by two or more runs and the bullpen is rested enough (Vest, Canley, Holton available) to protect a lead. He projected Baltimore for no more than two runs and expects Detroit’s offense to punish Kremer, making the -1.5 the best way to attack the game.

Even though the host called Skubal "the man," he advised caution on betting his strikeout over. Baltimore has gotten healthier and owns the 7th-lowest K-rate against left-handers in the last three weeks at 20.9%. With the Orioles swinging and missing far less of late, Skubal’s gaudy recent numbers (23.2 scoreless innings, 26 Ks) may not translate into a big strikeout game, making an over ticket dicey.

B Wade said Tarik Skubal is an easy over on 7.5 strikeouts Thursday. Skubal has punched out 8+ hitters in eight of 13 starts and already carved up Baltimore for 11 K’s in six shut-out innings earlier this season. The Orioles rank inside the top-8 in team strikeout rate (bottom 30th percentile overall) and have only one regular batting over .300 versus left-handed pitching, with most of the lineup sitting below .250. Wade noted that teams who held Skubal under this number generally strike out far less than Baltimore does. With a weak platoon profile and recent dominance against these same hitters, Wade expects at least eight strikeouts from the Tigers’ ace.

Ruffolo suggested isolating the opening half and taking Detroit on a first-five moneyline. The logic: Tarik Skubal’s dominance (7 IP, 1 ER or less, 0 BB in each of his last three) versus an Orioles order hitting just .205 with a bottom-five ISO against lefties in June. Baltimore’s bullpen has a microscopic 0.35 ERA over the past week, so eliminating the late-inning variance by betting the first five allows you to ride Skubal’s clear edge over Dean Kremer, who was lit up for eight hits and five runs by Oakland without surrendering a homer and must now travel to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Ruffolo believes the Tigers should be leading through five before the bullpens even matter.

Chris Ruffolo advised betting the Tigers either straight up or on the run line. He pointed to Tarik Skubal’s current heater – three straight outings of 7.0 IP with one run or fewer, zero walks, and a season total of 105 strikeouts in just 83.1 innings – as the main edge. Baltimore’s bats have looked helpless against southpaws in June, slashing .205/.258/.333 with a 26.1% K-rate (all bottom-10 marks). On the flip side, Detroit’s lineup has hovered around league-average versus righties this month (.251 AVG, 21% K-rate) and now faces Dean Kremer, who was shelled for five runs by Oakland his last time out and owns a 2.25 ERA that is heavily Camden-Yards-driven. Ruffolo argued Kremer will have trouble matching zeros with Skubal, and even though the Baltimore bullpen has rebounded (0.35 ERA over the last week), Detroit should have built a lead by the late innings. Play the Tigers ML, or grab the RL for extra value.

Eric Pathy said the Baltimore Orioles are his Value Play of the Day at roughly +170 on the moneyline despite facing the first-place Detroit Tigers. Pathy pointed out that Baltimore has been a money-loser when favored in 2025, yet they remain profitable when lined as underdogs thanks to a 12-14 record in that role. He reminded listeners that the Orioles were baseball’s most lucrative betting team in both 2023 and 2024 because markets consistently mispriced them as dogs. With Dean Kremer making the start and Detroit’s offense sitting in the bottom third of MLB in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, Pathy expects Baltimore to keep the game close and make the plus-money payout worthwhile.

Martin grabbed the Tigers at –102 in Baltimore, arguing that the best record (43-24, +92 run differential) and best bullpen in baseball should never be priced near a pick’em against the last-place Orioles. Casey Mize (2.91 ERA) already held Baltimore to one run over 5.1 innings earlier this year and was the former No. 1 overall pick for a reason. On the other side, Zach Eflin has been boom-or-bust, coughing up 10 homers in just 46 frames. With Detroit’s late-inning unit dominant and the Orioles’ pen leaking oil, Martin expects the Tigers to scratch out enough offense and lock it down late—fittingly on “Bark in the Park” night where the dog is literally barking.

Just A Bet Outside flagged Ryan O’Hearn as an elite left-handed bat to attack Casey Mize with. O’Hearn has a hit in 32 of 46 starts versus right-handed pitching, slashing .333/.545 with a gaudy 174 wRC+. He is already 6-for-11 with two homers lifetime off Mize. Combine that history with the current version of Mize (see earlier taek: command issues, 25 baserunners in 13 IP) and hitter-friendly weather in Baltimore (mid-80s temps, breeze out) and Stephen views O’Hearn overs—1+ hit, over 1.5 total bases, or Fantasy/DFS usage—as strong plus-EV plays.

Just A Bet Outside played Casey Mize UNDER 16.5 outs recorded (-125) at Camden Yards. Since returning from the injured list, Mize has failed to complete five innings in three straight, coughing up 25 baserunners (18 hits, 7 walks) in just 13 frames versus the White Sox, Royals and Guardians—far weaker line-ups than Baltimore. Even when stretched to 93 pitches last outing, he still exited before the sixth. Road splits amplify the fade: 3.90 ERA away from Comerica versus 1.53 at home, with his walk rate nearly doubling. The Orioles have shown renewed life at the plate—top-15 in wRC+ and slugging against righties at home over the past month—and Tuesday brings mid-80s temps with a light breeze out to left, conditions that favor hitters. Stephen projects four to five shaky innings before A.J. Hinch turns to the bullpen, making 16.5 outs a tall order.

Cash Out Sports Picks said Baltimore is the right side in the series opener because of the mound mismatch and recent form. He pointed out that Cade Poevich has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts while the club itself has been playing its best baseball over its last three series. In contrast, Detroit is forced to use fill-in starter Sawyer Jipson-Long, who was tagged for five hits and three earned runs in only 3.2 innings during his first big-league outing against the White Sox. Although the Tigers boast a 20-15 road record, the tout stressed that Baltimore’s familiarity with Camden Yards plus Poevich’s current command tilt the matchup toward the Orioles, making their moneyline worth backing.

Eric Lindquist said he is looking to fire on a Spencer Torkelson home-run ticket at Oriole Park if books hang a reasonable number. His model projects value because Baltimore rookie Kade Povich has been pummeled all season (50% hard-hit rate, .384 xwOBA) and the Orioles may not use an effective opener. Torkelson, meanwhile, has been "destroying everybody" and carries the kind of batted-ball profile (46% hard-hit, 91-mph EV) that punishes fly-ball lefties like Povich. Lindquist admitted he wants confirmation on exactly how the Baltimore bullpen plans to deploy an opener before making it an official wager, but called the Torkelson bomb his single favorite upside swing on Tuesday’s slate.

Eric Lindquist advised hammering Matthew Boyd’s UNDER 5.5 strikeouts at even money. He argued that Boyd’s current 24.7% K-rate is already brushing the very top of his realistic range and is bound to fall toward his 23% career norm. Lindquist pointed out that Boyd’s recent eight- and six-strikeout outings came against Colorado and Washington—two lineups with far more whiffs than Philadelphia. The Phillies, even without Bryce Harper, project as a low-K, high-contact group that should force Boyd into pitch-to-contact mode inside a hitter-friendly park. With a full season’s worth of sample size beginning to stabilize, Lindquist trusts his model and believes the books mis-priced this at a coin-flip. Anything plus-money—or even money—on the UNDER 5.5 Ks is an official bet for him.

Eric Lindquist advised hammering Matthew Boyd’s UNDER 5.5 strikeouts at even money. He argued that Boyd’s current 24.7% K-rate is already brushing the very top of his realistic range and is bound to fall toward his 23% career norm. Lindquist pointed out that Boyd’s recent eight- and six-strikeout outings came against Colorado and Washington—two lineups with far more whiffs than Philadelphia. The Phillies, even without Bryce Harper, project as a low-K, high-contact group that should force Boyd into pitch-to-contact mode inside a hitter-friendly park. With a full season’s worth of sample size beginning to stabilize, Lindquist trusts his model and believes the books mis-priced this at a coin-flip. Anything plus-money—or even money—on the UNDER 5.5 Ks is an official bet for him.