Beyond the total, Kenny G likes Cincinnati at +150, arguing the price overstates Los Angeles’ edge. Ohtani will again work only 3–4 innings, forcing the Dodgers’ shaky 4.29-ERA bullpen to soak up the majority of the game in a hitter-friendly park. The Reds are 31-23 at home and have Martinez rolling (0.95 WHIP over his last three). Meanwhile LA is merely 29-28 on the road and their offense has cooled to 20th in OPS this month. Kenny believes the Reds’ young lineup can scratch out late runs against LA’s middle relief, flipping the script after two straight losses. He called the combination of an innings-limited starter, overtaxed pen, and home underdog pedigree “a perfect upset recipe.”

Kenny G likes a two-pronged attack in Cincinnati: take the Reds at +150 and hammer the under 9.5. Shohei Ohtani is still capped at three innings per start, forcing Dave Roberts to lean on a Dodgers bullpen carrying a 4.29 ERA and the third-worst inherited-runner strand rate in baseball. Nick Martinez, on the other hand, has rattled off three straight quality outings and owns a 2.45 ERA over that span. The Reds’ pen is league-average but well-rested, and Great American Ball Park has surprisingly played under—Cincinnati is 33-17-5 to the under at home. Offensively, L.A. has scored five or fewer in five straight while the Reds remain hit-or-miss (11th in runs but 19th in slugging). Kenny projects a 4-3 type game, trusts Martinez more than a parade of Dodgers relievers after Ohtani exits, and thinks the +150 moneyline is ‘too good to pass up’ given the bullpen mismatch and park-specific under trend.

Lonte Smith grabbed Cincinnati at +144, arguing that Shohei Ohtani remains capped near 60 pitches and has yet to finish four innings in any of his six rehab starts. Los Angeles has to lean on a middling middle-relief corps in those appearances, a unit carrying a 4.61 ERA since the break. Nick Martinez, meanwhile, is 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA over his last six, allowing two or fewer earned in four of those games; Smith emphasized that the lone clunker—a 10-run disaster versus Miami—skews every surface stat. Outside that meltdown Martinez owns a 1.05 WHIP and 50% ground-ball rate. Cincinnati’s lineup has produced 5.6 runs per game since the All-Star break while the Dodgers are just 3-7 in their last ten. With the Reds’ bullpen ranking seventh in WAR during July, Smith believes the home dog is live from first pitch through the late innings.

Jay Yang advised laying the -1.5 run line with the Dodgers at even money in their July 30 matchup at Cincinnati. Yang argued Shohei Ohtani’s fastball/splitter mix should slice through a Reds lineup that has struggled all season against top-tier right-handers. While Ohtani is on a pitch limit, Yang still expects him to provide a strong opening burst before a superior Dodgers bullpen takes over. On the other side, Reds starter Martinez enters with a bloated WHIP and persistent walk issues, a bad recipe against a Dodgers offense that currently leads MLB in runs. Yang also noted a clear defensive edge and believes motivation is high: Los Angeles is 4-6 over its last 10, four games back in the division, and begins a soft stretch of schedule after facing playoff contenders like Boston and Milwaukee. With Tyler Glasnow due back and Freddie Freeman heating up, Yang views this as the perfect bounce-back spot and a comfortable cover for L.A.

Just A Bet Outside advised steering clear of Mookie Betts in DFS builds and total-bases props against Nick Lodolo. He pointed out that Los Angeles has been mediocre versus southpaws over the last three weeks, ranking 16th in wRC+, 21st in batting average, and 16th in slugging. Betts, the lineup’s catalyst, "continues to struggle," which Steven sees as a red flag with Lodolo in peak form—1.61 ERA in July, a complete-game shutout his last time out, and only four total earned runs allowed over 21.2 innings in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Given the Dodgers’ bottom-of-the-order woes and the Reds’ rested bullpen, Steven prefers fading Betts’ over 1.5 total bases and downgrading him in DFS projections, expecting limited damage from L.A.’s right-handed star Tuesday night.

Just A Bet Outside’s second best bet is UNDER 9 runs (–108) in Reds-Dodgers. He cited Tyler Glasnow’s return to dominance—only two earned runs allowed over his last 18 frames with 23 strikeouts and a 32% whiff rate. Nick Lodolo matches him with a 1.61 July ERA, fresh off a complete-game shutout, and has limited opponents to four total earned across his last 21.2 innings in homer-prone Great American Ball Park. Offensively, both clubs are sputtering: Los Angeles ranks 16th in wRC+ versus left-handers over the last three weeks while Cincinnati sits 21st against righties and continues to deal with TJ Friedl’s absence. The recent trends back it up—eight of the Dodgers’ last ten and seven of the Reds’ last ten have stayed under nine. Steven expects another low-scoring affair and played a half-unit on the under.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to the Dodgers moneyline and their team-total over against Cincinnati. He noted Tyler Glasnow’s 0.80 ERA across his last three starts (18 IP, 2 ER) now that the pitch-count leash is gone. Nick Lodolo, by contrast, owns significantly worse splits away from Great American Ball Park and will be pitching in a run-friendly stadium. The Dodgers rank top-10 versus both curveballs and sinkers—Lodolo’s two main offerings—and Guy highlighted that Mookie Betts carries +0.5 runs above average against the curve while Shohei Ohtani is nearly +3.0. With L.A. already beating Yamamoto last night, he expects another crooked number, recommending Dodgers ML at anything under –150 and Dodgers team-total over 4.5 runs.

Bamford grabbed Cincinnati +130 against a reeling Dodgers club that has dropped 13 of its last 18. Tyler Glasnow owns a 1.00 July ERA, but Nick Lodolo is matching him pitch-for-pitch: a complete-game shutout at Washington and just two earned runs over his past three starts. The Reds’ pen backs him with a 3.00 ERA over the last 10 games, and Great American Ball Park’s swing-and-miss backdrop sets up well for Lodolo’s strikeout prop, which Bamford also plans to attack. Cincinnati is 31-22 at home and riding a four-game winning streak, so at plus money he labeled them a "too juicy" bet.

For the NL showdown, Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Cincinnati on the money line. Tyler Glasnow owns a 4.09 road ERA and the Dodgers are just 1-2 when he starts away from Chavez Ravine. Reds lefty Nick Lodolo is 7-3 in team decisions at home and is coming off a complete-game shutout (8 K) versus Washington. With the Reds’ bats consistently supporting him, the tout expects Lodolo’s home dominance to continue and hand L.A. another post-All-Star loss.

Eric Lindquist is firing on Shohei Ohtani to homer—and a sprinkle on 2+ HRs—against left-hander Nick Lodolo. Ohtani still owns eight homers in just 157 plate appearances versus southpaws despite routinely facing a ‘downgraded’ price. Lodolo leans heavily on a curveball that produces only a 6.8-degree average launch angle overall, but Ohtani lifts that pitch to 13-plus degrees, which Lindquist called a ‘fully operational Death Star.’ Add in 90-degree, humid Cincinnati weather and low barometric pressure, and Lindquist’s break-even number drops to +170 for a single homer. Anything at double-digit odds on two homers merits a 0.1-unit dart.

Dylan Rockford grabbed Cincinnati at +154, insisting the market is inflating L.A. because of Yamamoto’s name value. His model made Los Angeles only –150 once he adjusted for a shaky Dodgers bullpen that ranks bottom-10 in xFIP over the past month. Rockford acknowledged Chase Burns’ volatility but noted the rookie has actually been competent in Great American Ball Park (including a June victory over the Yankees) and still misses bats at an elite clip. The Reds’ offense owns a 115 wRC+ since the break and is finally healthy, so he expects them to score enough before Dave Roberts turns the game over to middle relief. In a game he projects closer to a coin flip, Rockford is happy to ride the plus money on the improving home side.

Scott Reichel laid the –1.5 with Los Angeles because he sees a massive starting-pitching gap. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has righted the ship after a brief lull, allowing one earned run across 12 innings in his last two outings, and has generally looked every bit the ace the Dodgers paid for. Chase Burns still flashes gaudy strike-out totals (27 Ks over his last three starts) but everything else has been ugly: eight earned runs in those same outings, shaky command, persistent home-run issues and four straight Cincinnati losses when he takes the ball. Reichel thinks Burns’ inefficiency forces an over-taxed Reds bullpen in early, while L.A.’s deep lineup can capitalize on the walks and long-ball vulnerability. He priced the Dodgers closer to –200 on the moneyline and prefers the cheaper run line to squeeze value.

Eric Pathi advised backing the Cincinnati Reds as +150 home underdogs against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pathi noted the Reds enter on a four-game winning streak and are hunting a fifth straight victory, while the Dodgers have bled bettors $435 on the road this season with a pedestrian 26-24 away record. Because the Dodgers are routinely installed as sizable road favorites, their break-even point is nearly impossible to hit without an elite win percentage, making them a ‘bad bet’ in his view. Pathi framed the Reds in this spot as a classic, high-EV ‘home dog’ angle and labeled the wager his complimentary play of the day.

Lindquist advised jumping on Shohei Ohtani’s home-run number (expected around +180) in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park rates as the league’s No. 1 HR venue, and Ohtani comes in scorching hot with seven homers in his last nine games and a 61 % hard-hit rate in July. Reds rookie Chase Burns offers 99-mph heat but walks 11 % of batters, creating hitter’s counts and extra traffic. Ohtani himself owns a 13.7 % walk rate, so Lindquist recommended same-game-parlaying "Ohtani to walk" with the HR to trim juice. Between the park, the wild opposing starter, and Ohtani’s elite barrel profile, Lindquist called the slugger a "bet-first, ask-questions-later" play for Monday.