Bettor Mark said the Marlins are worth a play in the series rubber-match because of the mound mismatch. Rookie flamethrower Eury Perez “is showing some signs of life,” while Baltimore’s call-up Young is a hurler he simply does not trust. Mark added that Miami’s young roster “doesn’t know any better,” so he expects them to push aggressively even with the All-Star break looming, whereas some veteran clubs may coast. He believes Miami can “take this game pretty good,” making them a value side despite being on the road.

Kenny G grabbed Miami at +105, trusting 22-year-old Eury Perez to outduel Brandon Young. Perez has settled in after early struggles, allowing just one earned run over five innings in his most recent start against Cincinnati. Conversely, Young owns a 6.14 ERA and has been “mediocre at best” across his last five turns. Baltimore’s relief corps is a mess (4.59 bullpen ERA), while Miami’s pen is merely ordinary, giving the Fish a late-inning edge. Offensively the Orioles have cratered to 20th in runs and 23rd in OBP, scoring 0,5,7,3,6,2 in their past six contests, far from last year’s breakout group. Kenny admits Miami’s bats are inconsistent but believes Perez’s form and Baltimore’s pitching woes make the Marlins the right side.

Backing the Marlins moneyline, the handicapper highlighted Miami’s eight-game win streak and a 7-3 record as road underdogs. Rookie sensation Yuri Perez has allowed only one run over his last 11 innings while the team is 3-0 in his recent turns. Baltimore counters with rookie Brandon Young (0-3), viewed as ‘not ready,’ and the Orioles are reeling headed into the break. Miami’s lineup, fresh off a 6-0 shutout and buoyed by Xavier Edwards’ first homer and Kyle Stowers’ All-Star nod, should provide enough support. Without a trustworthy arm to lean on, Baltimore is an unreliable favorite, making Miami the play.

Kenny G said he is leaning toward laying the juice with Baltimore at -160. He expects Trevor Rodgers to stay dialed-in after opening the season 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and throwing 6⅔ scoreless innings against Atlanta last time out. Miami’s sticks have completely cooled—two total runs in their last three games—and the Fish are just 19th in MLB scoring despite ranking 10th in batting average. Kenny acknowledged that both bullpens are mediocre (Orioles 4.50 ERA, Marlins 4.07), so the matchup boils down to Rodgers versus Jansen Junk. Although Junk tossed six shutout frames against Cincinnati, Kenny noted that Baltimore carries momentum from three straight wins and faces a Miami club that is 22-24 on the road and 25-20-1 to the over (suggesting plenty of crooked numbers against that pen). With the Birds still priced under -165, Kenny labeled the Orioles a worthwhile money-line play, albeit a "slight lean" rather than a full lock.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Orioles on the moneyline, noting that Baltimore has ripped off five wins in its last six and is finally playing to preseason expectations. Trevor Rogers enters with a sparkling 1.57 ERA, only one homer allowed, and enough length to spare the bullpen. Facing his former Marlins team adds extra juice. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who rarely reaches the sixth inning and has seen the Fish drop three of his last five turns while the offense musters little support. With Baltimore’s starters dealing, bats delivering timely power, and Miami’s recent skid, the tout labeled the Orioles the clear side.

Chris Welsh said fantasy contenders should stay far away from Sandy Alcantara, calling him "rock-bottom" both in results and underlying skill. Alcantara owns the worst qualified ERA in baseball and even his xERA is nearly 5.0. Welsh pointed to a career-low strikeout rate, one of his highest walk rates in the last five seasons, and no meaningful dip in four-seam or sinker velocity—evidence the right-hander has simply lost feel rather than stuff. The changeup usage is down, efficiency on the pitch is way off, and hitters are teeing off. Because of that, Welsh believes any idea of a quick mechanical tweak or coaching ‘fix’ is wish-casting and not worth the acquisition cost in redraft leagues, especially for win-now rosters that cannot absorb more damage to ratios.

Eric Lindquist said to take Ryan O'Hearn over 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs against Miami. O'Hearn is locked into the clean-up spot and will face Edward Cabrera, a right-hander with shaky command who owns a double-digit walk rate. Lindquist pointed out that Cabrera’s volatility keeps Baltimore’s lineup on the bases and gives O’Hearn extra RBI chances. The Orioles avoided using O’Hearn in the first half of Thursday’s double-header so he comes in rested, and the ballpark boost of Camden Yards means a single gap shot can clear the number. With Dean Kremer expected to go for Baltimore, Lindquist expects a positive run environment that raises O’Hearn’s counting-stat floor.

As a bonus play, Harrelson likes Edward Cabrera UNDER 2.5 earned runs. The right-hander has stayed below this number in 9 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20 starts (75%). He has cashed the prop in 11 of 15 appearances this season (73%) and grades out roughly in the 65th percentile across key pitching metrics. The Orioles’ offense ranks slightly below league average against righties, giving Cabrera a workable matchup. While Cabrera did allow three runs in his lone 2024 meeting with Baltimore, the wider trend supports the under, making it a strong alternative for viewers uneasy about fading Acuna.

Brad Francis took Dean Kramer under 4.5 strikeouts. He said he isn’t a Kramer believer, expects the Marlins—who have been swinging well in their last 15 road games—to knock him out early, and doubts the Baltimore right-hander lasts long enough to pile up Ks.