Chris Raybon said Tampa Bay’s +165 moneyline is worth a bet because several underlying factors point to the Eagles being overvalued. He argued Philadelphia’s defensive line is noticeably weaker after offseason turnover, and the offense has looked disjointed—Hurts is seeing fewer designed runs, the line is not blocking as cleanly, and the passing attack has devolved into forcing contested targets to A.J. Brown. Raybon noted the Eagles needed a blocked-FG miracle to escape the Rams despite trailing 26-7 at half, calling that result misleading. Tampa Bay’s defense blitzes at a top-10 rate and historically rattles Hurts, which Raybon believes will again disrupt Philly. He added that the Eagles flew to Florida early to acclimate to humidity—evidence, in his view, that the Bucs are “in their heads.” With 69% of tickets on Tampa +3.5 but 81% of moneyline bets on Philly, Raybon sees volatility and prefers the plus-odds payout on an outright upset rather than the spread.

Dave Tuley said the betting market has inflated Philadelphia from the -2.5 advance line to -3.5 even though both clubs are 3-0. He prefers taking Tampa Bay +3.5 straight rather than teasing it, arguing the spread now reflects nothing more than public love for the defending champs. Tuley reminded readers that the Buccaneers have lived in tight games (3-0 by a combined six points) and showed they can score late, rallying past the Jets 29-27 last week. Conversely, the Eagles needed a blocked field-goal return on the final snap to escape with a 33-26 miracle cover, so they have hardly cruised. He acknowledged Baker Mayfield’s right-biceps listing but noted the quarterback is expected to play, giving Tampa its full offensive arsenal. With a live home dog used to nail-biters, a healthy Mayfield, and an arguably bloated number, Tuley recommends grabbing the Buccaneers +3.5.

Jeff Hochman took the Buccaneers +3.5 against Philadelphia, calling the number a bargain in the week’s lone meeting of unbeatens. He pointed out Jalen Hurts is 1-4 lifetime versus Tampa and suffered his last full-game loss to the Bucs in Week 4 of 2024. More importantly, the Eagles have been out-gained in every 2025 contest, something Hochman believes will catch up to them on the road. The veteran capper, 83-66-3 (+$1,217) in the NFL over four seasons, trusts Baker Mayfield and a disciplined Bucs defense to keep things within a field goal—or win outright.

Everett laid the field-goal road chalk with Philadelphia, emphasizing Tampa Bay’s lengthy injury list: WR Mike Evans, RT Luke Goedeke, RG Cody Mauch and DL Calijah Kancey are already ruled out, while Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin are less than 100%. Despite the Bucs being 2-1 against Philly the last two seasons, Everett believes a depleted offensive line will struggle against an Eagles front generating pressure on 36% of dropbacks through Week 3. A healthy Jalen Hurts plus the league’s No. 3 rushing attack should be enough to clear the ‑3.

Ed Feng bet Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions at ‑105. Mayfield, who tied for the league lead in picks last season alongside Kirk Cousins, has yet to throw one in 2025, a streak Feng deemed unsustainable. His interception model factors in passes defended and QB hits; Mayfield has already produced 12 such turnover-worthy plays, and the model gives a 54.9% probability he throws at least one pick versus Philadelphia. Feng concluded the price is too cheap given the underlying risk baked into Mayfield’s drop-back profile.

Vic Tafur laid 3.5 with Philadelphia after watching the Eagles ‘dust off’ A.J. Brown during last week’s comeback over Los Angeles. He expects Nick Sirianni to keep the pedal down, daring Tampa Bay’s secondary to handle Brown and DeVonta Smith simultaneously. With Mike Evans unlikely to play, Tafur doubts the Buccaneers can score enough to match, making the road favorite his side.

Moody highlighted Emeka Egbuka as Tampa Bay’s top receiving option while Mike Evans nurses a multi-week hamstring injury. Egbuka has 21 targets and 51 fantasy points through three games and now steps into Evans’ 27% target share. The Eagles’ secondary has allowed splash plays (43.5-point total, 90-degree on-field temps aiding fatigue), positioning Egbuka as a volume-driven WR2 in Season-long formats and an upside DFS pivot off higher-priced teammates.

Walder predicted Philadelphia will post its first positive pass-rate-over-expectation of 2025. Tampa Bay ranks first in EPA allowed vs designed runs, so Nick Sirianni will lean on Jalen Hurts’ arm rather than D’Andre Swift’s legs. A likely uptick in drop-backs (Philadelphia has been –7% PROE through three weeks) boosts stacking appeal for Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in DFS while creating overs on Hurts’ yardage props.