Kenny G recommended Cincinnati at –135, citing multiple matchup edges. Nick Lodolo owns a 3.63 ERA and the Reds are 3-1 in his last four outings, including a four-plus inning, one-run showing against the Yankees. San Diego counters with rookie Stephen Kolek (3.95 ERA) but has dropped all three of his recent starts, and the Friars’ bats remain an anchor—22nd in runs and 24th in slugging while posting 6-1-1-4-6-3 runs their past six. Kenny acknowledged the Reds’ bullpen has slipped to a 4.07 ERA yet reminded listeners it was top-five most of the season and still flashes high-leverage upside. Cincinnati’s lineup has climbed to 11th in runs as Elly De La Cruz ignites the offense, giving them the punch San Diego lacks. With both clubs trending 23+ unders in their respective home/road splits, Kenny leaned that way on the total but made Reds ML his primary play.

Martin wants the Reds as a barking home dog with Nick Lodolo on the mound. The 27-year-old lefty sports an 80-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio and is coming off impressive back-to-back starts versus the Twins and Yankees. Opposing starter Adam Collick has surrendered 11 earned runs and 18 hits over his last 14 innings (three starts), so Martin questions his ability to navigate Great American Ball Park. With Lodolo’s strikeout stuff and Cincinnati’s plus-price, Martin is eager to grab the Reds moneyline.

Reichel leaned to the under 9.5/10 despite the hitter-friendly park. Andrew Abbott is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts. Padres starter Adrian Vasquez has a 3.60 ERA and just six earned runs over his last four starts. With neutral wind conditions, Reichel believes both lineups are too inconsistent to justify a double-digit total and sees a tight, lower-scoring game as the value side.

Kenny G said the best angle on Padres-Reds is the under 9.5, even in Great American Ball Park. He raved about Andrew Abbott’s year—1.98 ERA over his last four outings and fresh off seven innings of one-run ball versus St. Louis—and noted that Padres rookie Randy Vasquez has quietly logged a 3.56 xERA while holding opponents to a .289 wOBA outside of Petco. Both clubs trend to the under in these splits (San Diego 22-18-1 under on the road, Cincinnati 23-15-2 under at home). The Reds’ bullpen ERA sits at 3.98 but has flashed top-10 form for long stretches, and the Padres’ offense has cooled to 3.5 runs per game over its last six. With both starters in form and two pens that can protect a lead, Kenny expects offense to be at a premium and locked in the under. He also sprinkled Reds –155, citing Cincinnati’s top-10 rankings in runs and slugging and the leap Elly De La Cruz has taken in June.

Mark took Padres team total Under 4.5 (-130) against rookie ace Andrew Abbott. Abbott is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 29% K-rate, and opponents have not exceeded four runs in eight of his nine starts. San Diego has failed to eclipse 4.5 runs in three straight and ranks 24th in wRC+ versus lefties this month. While Great American Ball Park inflates home-run potential, Abbott’s 53% ground-ball rate helps mitigate the park factor.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Padres on the money line, pointing to a clear pitching gap and recent head-to-head trends. Dylan Cease has held Cincinnati to three runs or fewer in three straight matchups and carries top-10 metrics in K-rate and FIP, while Nick Martinez is forced to return to the rotation after two relief stints and owns a 6.89 ERA lifetime versus San Diego. The Reds have just one double-digit homer hitter, four hits last game, and sit bottom-half in every major offensive category. San Diego has plated six-plus runs in four of the last five meetings and won four of those contests. With Cease rested, Cincinnati’s starter off routine, and Great American Ballpark’s homer-friendly environment favoring the deeper lineup, the tout labeled Padres ML the safest full-game side.

Jay Yang said the Padres are worth laying the short -127 road price because Dylan Cease gives them a decisive starting-pitching advantage over Nick Martinez. Cease just rebounded with 6.2 innings of one-run ball and four strikeouts, and Yang likes his 85% fastball/slider mix that has been augmented by an improving curve and changeup spotted in recent outings versus Kansas City and the Dodgers. Martinez, bumped from long relief into Cincinnati's rotation, owns a shaky 4.40 ERA and has been battered in recent starts against Minnesota and Detroit when his six-pitch mix lost command. Yang expects Martinez to exit early, leaving a mediocre Reds bullpen to cover outs, while Cease's stuff should keep Cincinnati hitters off balance. Those matchup factors plus San Diego's generally stronger offense led Yang to recommend betting the Padres moneyline.

Eric Lindquist circled Jake Cronenworth as his favorite long-ball prop in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park consistently inflates left-handed power, and Reds starter Nick Martinez yields a 19-degree average launch angle that can turn medium contact into souvenirs. Getting San Diego’s lefties away from Petco should further lift Cronenworth’s power output. Lindquist advised shopping for +400 or better on the homer line, convinced the park factors and matchup give Cronenworth an above-market chance to leave the yard.

The tout closed his list with Luis Arraez, who is 2-for-4 with a homer (.500) lifetime off Nick Martinez and enters Friday on a 12-game hitting streak. Given Arraez’s elite bat-to-ball skills, the recommendation is a straightforward "to record a hit" wager with the potential to ladder up to hits+runs+RBIs.