Chris Ruffolo advised taking the Diamondbacks moneyline in Thursday’s matchup with San Francisco. He pointed out that Arizona’s offense has been scorching left-handed pitching over the last two weeks, ranking second in MLB with a .320 average, a .958 team OPS, league-best .247 ISO, and a .347 BABIP. That surge comes against Giants left-hander Robbie Ray, whose solid 3.46 ERA has been wasted because San Francisco’s lineup is ice-cold versus righties (.210 average, bottom-five OPS and bottom-10 ISO over the same span). Ruffolo added that Brandon Pfaadt has quietly stabilized, working at least five innings in four straight starts and allowing two earned or fewer in three of those. The Giants have scored two or fewer in four straight games and were shut out 1-0 in Ray’s last outing, leading Ruffolo to fade their bats even if Ray delivers another quality start. With both sides priced roughly even, he labeled Arizona the more trustworthy team and a value bet to win outright.

Eric Lindquist leaned toward the Giants moneyline in their desert tilt with Arizona, even with Chase Field’s roof slated to be closed. His fade centers on Brandon Pfaadt, whom his model ranks bottom-10 among qualified starters thanks to a 49.8% hard-hit rate, 13.8% barrel rate, and sub-19% strikeout percentage. Lindquist concedes that Arizona pitchers should improve in the AC, but he still expects San Francisco’s left-heavy lineup to exploit Pfaadt’s inability to finish hitters (just 22% whiff rate on the sweeper). On the other side, San Francisco turns to Robbie Ray in what amounts to a bullpen game, giving them a sizable K-rate edge and a fresher relief corps. With the Giants bullpen ranking 4th in xFIP over the past month and Pfaadt’s blow-up potential still very real, Lindquist considers San Francisco a worthwhile moneyline play at anything better than ‑115.

Despite San Francisco’s four-game losing streak, Martin laid the –115 because Robbie Ray profiles as a classic stopper. The 33-year-old lefty is 8-3 with a 2.75 ERA and has fanned 110 hitters; he struck out nine D-backs over six innings in their earlier meeting. Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who sports an ERA north of five and was tagged for four earned and three walks by these Giants while lasting only four frames in that same series. Bullpen metrics also favor San Francisco. Martin concedes that Arizona’s top-of-order bats are dangerous, but trusts Ray’s dominance and the relief advantage to break the skid.

Malcom Bamford passed on the side and isolated the Arizona offense, playing the Diamondbacks team-total over (likely 4.5, willing to ladder higher). He called the Snakes "the only trustworthy unit in the game," pointing out they rank top-10 in every major offensive category and are scoring 4.91 runs per game at Chase Field. Landen Roupp owns a 4.56 ERA in 10 road starts and was torched by the Dodgers in his last real test away from Oracle Park. Merrill Kelly’s recent wobble kept Bamford from laying the full game price, but he expects Roupp to leak early and let a top-10 Arizona lineup cash five or more runs on its own.

Lindquist already placed a wager on the Giants to win outright in Chase Field. He called it a "ballpark upgrade" for San Francisco hitters while highlighting Ryne Nelson’s persistent reverse splits—right-handers own an xISO north of .180 against him this season. That makes righties Heliot Ramos and Willy Adames live home-run candidates (one could land on his card), but the core bet is the moneyline. Logan Webb’s elite ground-ball profile should play perfectly in Arizona’s expansive outfield with the roof closed, mirroring the run-suppression he enjoys at Oracle Park. Offensively, Arizona is scuffling without Corbin Carroll, and outside of a hot Ketel Marte, Lindquist sees little firepower to punish Webb. Add in Nelson’s susceptibility to right-handed power and San Francisco’s deeper lineup, and Lindquist believes the Giants are undervalued in this matchup.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus play is Rafael Devers UNDER 1.5 total bases in the Giants-Diamondbacks tilt. Devers has finished below this number in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 (70%), and he’s under in 50 of 85 games on the season (59%). Sportsbooks back the fade—DraftKings, ESPN Bet, and Caesars all price the under as the favorite. Though Devers averages a solid 4.6 PAs, he is 0-for-3 with one walk career versus tonight’s starter (giving him a .333 OBP but zero bases). Harrelson stressed the platoon data: Devers is hitting worse against right-handers this year, while Ryne Nelson is actually tougher on left-handed bats. The confluence of cold form, negative splits, and market support leads Harrelson to project another low-base night for Devers.

Razzle views Logan Webb as a mid-tier option with a solid floor. Webb’s road strike-out rate (27 %) outpaces his numbers in Oracle Park, and the Diamondbacks are without Corbin Carroll, shaving 20 points from their wRC+. The downside is Chase Field’s homer-friendly environment where Webb’s HR/9 jumps. Razzle will use Webb primarily in single-entry lineups if other weather-sensitive arms get scratched.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking Arizona as short home underdogs. The Giants have won just three of their last 10 trips to Chase Field, while Arizona is 8-4 as a home dog this year. The tout argued the market is overlooking the Diamondbacks’ hot bats and San Francisco’s own offensive anemia (4.18 runs per game). Ryne Nelson provides enough steadiness to let the lineup do damage, and the Giants’ historical struggles in the desert plus the D-backs’ profitability in this role create what he labeled an “undervalued spot.”