Billy Ward grabbed Sodiq Yusuff at +114 and would play any plus number, arguing the move up to lightweight gives Yusuff tangible advantages. According to Ward, Santos accepted the bout simply to stay active and plans to drop back to featherweight, meaning Yusuff should be the noticeably larger, stronger man on fight night. Yusuff owns a 37% takedown success rate and averages 1.3 subs per 15 minutes, while Santos was out-grappled and—per 95% of media cards—robbed Francis Marshall in his lone UFC fight. Ward acknowledged chin concerns for Yusuff but believes skipping the brutal 145-pound cut plus facing a massive step down from Edson Barboza and Diego Lopez mitigates that risk. With a presumed grappling edge and physicality advantage, he feels the line should be closer to -120 Yusuff.

Jim Malaro flipped his stance after Media-Day bombshells and now leans toward Mairon Santos. Sodiq Yusuff admitted he spent the last 18 months “putting my body back together,” disclosing two bulging discs in his back, another in his neck and ongoing stem-cell treatments he chose over surgery. Yusuff also said he accepted this bout at 155 because he cannot make featherweight until he is healthy again and has no plans to stay at lightweight. Malaro called chronic back and neck issues “red-alert injuries” for a fighter whose game relies on explosive level changes and clinch strength. Add in the fact Yusuff is coming off a violent KO loss to Diego Lopes and has to absorb Santos’s long-range boxing at a weight he has never competed in, and Jim views the Nigerian as a compromised favorite. He has not fired yet but plans to bet Santos moneyline if the number holds north of +115 and will sprinkle Santos by KO at +350, believing a compromised Yusuff cannot survive sustained body work and straight rights.

Matty Betss framed Mairon Santos as a sneaky buy-low underdog—even sprinkling his KO prop—against Sodiq Yusuff at roughly +115. Bettors are fixated on Santos’ controversial split-decision win over Francis Marshall, but Betss reminded listeners the featherweight openly admitted judges robbed Marshall, meaning market sentiment is unfairly punishing Santos. From a stylistic standpoint Betss prefers Santos’ slicker boxing, faster hands, and seemingly granite chin; the 24-year-old has yet to be knocked out and absorbs damage in stride. Yusuff owns only one career submission, averages fewer than 0.5 takedowns per fight, and Betss doubts he will lean on wrestling. Instead the bout should play out almost entirely on the feet, where Yusuff’s chin has shown cracks—he was badly wobbled by Diego Lopes and hurt multiple times by Edson Barboza despite landing 178 strikes. Betss argues the market overvalues Yusuff’s five-round effort with Barboza even though Barboza has gone 4-6 in his last ten and was dropped by Bryce Mitchell. With KO paths squarely on Santos’ side and plus money available, Betss is content to bet the dog straight and sprinkle the knockout number for extra upside.

MMA Guru predicted that 16-1 prospect Mairon Santos will stop Sodiq Yusuff by TKO. After re-watching Santos’ narrow decision loss to Francis Marshall, Guru noted Santos actually out-damaged Marshall—breaking his nose in round one, landing the cleaner shots in rounds two and three, and only clearly losing the frame in which he was flash-dropped. He framed that bout as a valuable learning experience that will sharpen Santos’ pacing and defense. By contrast, Guru labeled Yusuff ‘a little chinny,’ reminding listeners that Yusuff was repeatedly wobbled in a war with Edson Barboza and tends to get rocked whenever exchanges extend. Moving up to lightweight may spare Yusuff some weight-cut fatigue, but Guru doubts it fixes an inherent durability issue. He also questioned Yusuff’s commitment, pointing to the Nigerian’s voice-acting side jobs and long layoffs between fights, whereas Santos is still in a hungry, activity-driven phase of his career. Expect Santos’ higher output and sharper boxing to snowball, crack Yusuff’s shaky chin, and finish the fight—making Santos money-line plus ITD/TKO props attractive wagering angles.

Dan Tom said the short-notice nature of this booking forced the bout to 155 rather than the normal 145 and that extra ten pounds is a sneaky plus for Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff has admitted the featherweight cut has been brutal for years, calling himself ‘a really dense guy,’ and is already flirting with a permanent move up. Santos is a big featherweight too, but Tom argued the smaller Brazilian gains less because he is still growing into his frame, whereas Yusuff immediately benefits from added durability and cardio with no drain. Tom also reminded listeners that neither man is a one-shot knockout artist, so the lighter cut for Yusuff does not erase a power gap. Combine the healthier weight cut, Yusuff’s proven forward-pressure style that wins optics, and Santos’ apparent hesitation after admitting he thought he lost the Francis Marshall fight, and Tom labeled it a clear “dog-or-pass” spot. He is leaning to Yusuff money-line at anything +100 or better and expects the fight to reach the judges more often than the market implies, making Over 2.5 a viable sidecar wager.

Michael Lurato called Sodiq Yusuff a "get-right spot" at plus money, arguing the Nigerian packs an extra gear of violence that Santos simply lacks. Lurato reviewed tape of Yusuff’s three-round war with Mike Davis—"the best Contender Series fight ever"—and his fearless pressure against snipers like Edson Barboza, concluding that Yusuff trusts both his chin and his power. He contrasted that with Santos, who appeared tentative against Marshall, never committing fully and seemingly fighting with a safety on his trigger. In exchanges Lurato expects the optics to favor Yusuff: harder shots, cleaner power connections, and a willingness to bite down when Santos tries to jab from distance. He also noted that if judges had awarded Marshall the decision, Santos would not even own this matchup, underscoring how untested he remains. Because the matchup plays directly into Yusuff’s willingness to trade and Santos’ tendency to coast, Lurato advised taking the Yusuff money-line at anything above even odds, labeling it his preferred underdog bet on the card.

Dan Tom said the betting line is "begging you to play the dog" because Sodiq Yusuff is the far more proven product while Mairon Santos has done little beyond a highly-debated split over Francis Marshall. Tom pointed out that Santos looked visibly gun-shy for the final two rounds after being dropped and may not even have been booked here had the judges gone the other way. Yusuff, on the other hand, has shown he can push pace against elite strikers—walking down Edson Barboza, surviving a firefight with Mike Davis on Contender Series—and routinely lands his counter right with serious pop. Tom also questioned how much hands-on coaching Santos actually receives at the oversaturated Xtreme Couture gym and warned that many UFC fighters are taking short-notice bouts due to the crowded schedule. All things considered, Tom advised a simple Yusuff money-line play at anything plus-100 or better and labeled the matchup strictly “dog or pass.”

Jeff Fox sided with 24-year-old Mairon Santos at –130, fading Sodiq Yusuff after a year-long layoff and an April knockout loss. Fox noted Yusuff hasn’t recorded a win since October 2022 and is entering the back half of his career, while Santos is 15-1 with eight KOs and riding a three-fight streak since winning The Ultimate Fighter. Fox likes the Brazilian’s explosiveness and one-shot power, arguing a fresher, faster athlete often exposes veterans coming off KO losses. Even though the matchup is at lightweight, he believes Santos effortlessly makes 145 and will still be the quicker man, throwing varied kick-boxing combos that mirror the style Diego Lopes used to overwhelm Yusuff. Fox expects a statement finish or at worst a clear decision that propels Santos toward the featherweight rankings.

Gumby Vreeland backed Sodiq Yusuff as a slight +115 underdog, emphasizing two key edges: level of competition and the unexpected jump to lightweight. Yusuff’s only UFC losses are to Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza, and Diego Lopes—top-15 talents—while Mairon Santos is 2-0 against Francis Marshall and Connor Matthews. The bout being held at 155 lbs removes Yusuff’s brutal featherweight cut, a boost Vreeland says will improve his gas tank and durability at age 31. He believes the Nigerian’s craft—tight boxing combinations, feints, and a sneaky counter right—will frustrate the explosive but still raw Santos, whose defense has looked hittable even on the Contender Series. Vreeland expects a veteran savvy striking performance, predicting Yusuff wins a competitive but clear decision to halt his two-fight skid.

Monk backed Mairon Santos as a buy-low DFS play, noting that Sodiq Yusuff’s defensive metrics have cratered. Yusuff has been knocked down four times across his last three losses—twice by Diego Lopes on only 26 landed strikes—and owns just 21st-percentile distance-strike defense and 26th-percentile overall striking defense in Monk’s model. Although Santos looked flat in a split win over Francis Marshall, Monk believes that poor showing is actually suppressing his DraftKings ownership and the betting line; had Santos breezed through Marshall, he projects the money line would sit around –200. Monk will roster both sides in GPPs but intends to be overweight on Santos, who sits in the mid-$8K range with an implied win probability near 55 %. A finish is not required—Yusuff concedes over one knockdown per 30 significant strikes absorbed—but Monk sees 85–100-point upside if Santos wins minutes behind his volume kickboxing.

Sniper was baffled that Sodiq Yusuff opened as a +115 underdog to Mairon Santos and urged bettors to jump on the plus money before it disappears. Yusuff’s resume includes wins over Mike Davis, Gabriel Benitez, and Andre Fili—far stiffer competition than Santos, whose UFC ledger consists of a split decision over fringe prospect Francis Marshall and a finish of Khusein Askhabov, a fighter Sniper labeled ‘awful.’ From a skills standpoint, Yusuff lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute, defends 63 %, and owns solid takedown defense, while Santos has been controlled and forced into close fights against lower-tier opponents. With the market expecting a decision (–225), Sniper values Yusuff’s minute-winning kickboxing in both betting and DFS, projecting 80-plus DraftKings points in a win. He plans to be overweight on Yusuff at $7,900 and believes the money-line misprice will correct toward pick’em or Yusuff favorite by fight night.

Kunath is fading the incoming money on Sodiq Yusuff and likes Mairon Santos to win a decision. He highlighted three angles fueling the public love for Yusuff (early-career hype, perception that Santos ‘robbed’ Francis Marshall, and a card devoid of live dogs) but argued none address the actual matchup. Yusuff has not recorded a KO since 2018, owns just two UFC takedowns and has been dropped in four of his last five bouts while eating 4.71 sig. strikes per minute. Santos absorbs only 3.0 per minute, moves laterally like Natalia Silva did to frustrate Alexa Grasso, and excels at drawing linear fighters into looping counters—a pattern he used to starch Conor McGregor on TUF (Kunath’s tongue-in-cheek reference to the series). Kunath expects Santos to circle, land the cleaner moments, possibly score a knockdown, and carry rounds on the judges’ cards at plus money.