Ben Stevens leaned the opposite direction, agreeing with 59% of the Fade-the-Public poll that Travis Hunter’s best hardware shot is Defensive Rookie of the Year at 10-to-1. Stevens reminded listeners that Hunter erased half the field at Colorado and will walk into Jacksonville as their CB1, giving him every-down snaps from day one. Even if quarterbacks avoid him, sticky man coverage and a few high-leverage pass break-ups in prime-time games can sway AP voters, who have given the award to corners in two of the last eight seasons despite modest interception totals. Stevens noted Cohen’s own words—Hunter will start camp on offense but "that will kind of become the norm…flip-flop within the same practice"—suggest the staff still views defense as his primary role. With a clearer path to 900-plus defensive snaps than to a 100-target receiving season, Stevens likes the value at 10-1 and would sprinkle a smaller amount on the +450 ‘either award’ prop in case Hunter’s snap split turns into a true two-way workload.

Ben Stevens predicted Baker Mayfield will again finish as a top-five production quarterback in 2024, calling him one of fantasy’s best late-round steals. Stevens expects the Buccaneers’ pass-heavy scheme to push Mayfield near 5,000 passing yards and roughly 40 touchdowns while maintaining a quarterback rating north of 100. He credited Mayfield’s late-career renaissance to improved decision-making, a humbling stint of team-hopping that forced him to "figure out how to play the position," and the presence of elite wideouts in Tampa’s vertical attack. After two consecutive seasons of QB1-caliber efficiency, Stevens sees no reason to doubt Mayfield’s ceiling, advising season-long and best-ball managers to draft him aggressively and to look at over props on his yardage and touchdowns once sportsbooks post them.

Ben Stevens questioned why sportsbooks list Joe Flacco as the slight favorite to open the season under center for Cleveland and recommended taking a shot on Kenny Pickett in any "Week-1 starter" markets that reopen. Stevens reasoned that Flacco “is not the future—maybe not even past weeks two or three,” while the front office desperately needs to evaluate Pickett after trading for him this spring. With Deshaun Watson stashed on PUP following a second Achilles rupture and rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel viewed as long-term projects, Stevens thinks Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski will prioritize gathering a full season of tape on Pickett before deciding whether to invest future draft capital at quarterback. Given that context, Stevens believes the coaching staff will give Pickett all the first-team reps in August, making him undervalued relative to the current odds that favor the 39-year-old Flacco.

Ben Stevens said he is holding an alternate Giants ticket OVER 3.5 wins and remains confident it cashes now that Brian Daboll has officially named Russell Wilson the Week-1 starter. Stevens argued Wilson is still "serviceable," pointing to last year’s 11-game sample in Pittsburgh—63.7 % completion rate, 2,416 yards, 18 total TDs and only 5 INTs—as proof the veteran can keep the offense on schedule. He likes the supporting cast: Malik Nabers coming off an "outstanding rookie season," rookie back Tyrone Tracy already handling the lead-back role, plus a defense he called a "good foundational unit." Even though the Giants face the league’s toughest schedule by projected opponent win totals and the market has moved the primary win total to 5.5 (under juiced), Stevens believes Wilson can steal enough winnable spots and keep New York competitive long enough for him to get to four victories and cash that alt ticket.

Ben Stevens said Indianapolis is an automatic fade on its 7.5-win total if Daniel Jones, not Anthony Richardson, is under center in Week 1. He outlined a bleak scenario: Richardson is still rehabbing last year’s shoulder injury, has started only four NFL games and posted a league-worst 47.7% completion rate, while Jones offers little more than ‘stability’ after a 15-31 career record and 3.6% TD rate. Stevens argued that choosing Jones would signal the franchise already doubts Richardson’s future, turning 2025 into a placeholder season with zero developmental upside. He also noted Shane Steichen sits at 17-17 in two years and could be a casualty of another losing campaign. Without a healthy, high-ceiling quarterback, Stevens projects the Colts to finish 6-11 or worse, making under tickets the sharp side the moment Indy hints that Jones will take the first snap.

Ben Stevens sees value in the Jets’ 5.5-win total, which is shaded to the over at –135. He believes first-year head coach Aaron Glenn will replicate the culture turnaround he spearheaded in Detroit, while Justin Fields gives New York a higher offensive ceiling than last year’s aging Aaron Rodgers experiment did. Stevens pointed out that a last-place schedule served up four games versus fellow bottom-feeders Tennessee and Arizona plus winnable home dates against Chicago and Las Vegas. With a retooled offensive line and four starters returning on a surprisingly stout defense (12th in DVOA despite the 5-12 record), he projects 6–7 victories—enough to cash over tickets and make the Jets pesky underdogs week-to-week.

Ben Stevens endorsed betting the Patriots’ win total over 7.5 (-125 at most shops). Stevens said oddsmakers are quietly pricing New England for an eight-win season because of three key edges: 1) the NFL’s second-easiest schedule by opponent win totals, 2) a proven head coach upgrade to Mike Vrabel, and 3) the optimism that No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye can operate behind an improving offensive line now anchored by franchise left tackle Caedan Wallace. He added that the AFC East looks softer than at any point in the last five years—Miami’s win total is sinking and the Jets are in a rebuild—so New England could go 4-2 inside the division. Stevens acknowledged protection is the lone ‘if,’ but argued that needing only a .500 record outside Buffalo makes the over a strong bet.

Ben Stevens called the Bills a ‘one-way street’ to an AFC East crown at –260, noting it is the shortest divisional price on any board yet still worth laying. His evidence: Buffalo has captured five straight East titles and now faces the league’s 28th-toughest schedule by opponent win totals. The Jets remain a health gamble with 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, Miami’s defense took a step back after trading Jalen Ramsey, and New England is stuck in a rebuild with Drake Maye behind a shaky offensive line. Buffalo’s own win total sits at 11.5 (over –160), the highest in football, signaling books agree. Stevens argued that locking in divisional tickets also creates a cheap surrogate for Bills No. 1-seed equity because home-field runs almost always start with winning your division. He recommends pairing the –260 with rollover money-line parlays against AFC East foes to juice ROI rather than chasing longer-shot Super Bowl futures.

Ben Stevens said he will fire on the Bengals at +1000 to win the AFC the moment Trey Hendrickson and first-round rookie Shamar Stewart sign and report. His logic: Cincinnati’s offense is already championship-ready—Joe Burrow is the only active AFC quarterback to beat Patrick Mahomes in a title game and still has the league’s best three-wide set (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas) plus a more dynamic backfield with Chase Brown. The only glaring question is a pass rush that ranked 27th in pressure rate after finishing bottom-10 in both points and yards allowed last season and losing Sam Hubbard to retirement. Stevens believes a healthy Hendrickson/Stewart duo lets new DC Al Golden maximize the Bengals’ lone defensive strength, turning the unit from liability into at least league-average. With that box checked, he expects the 10-to-1 number to shorten quickly and views it as the best way to invest in Cincinnati’s upside rather than laying juice on their 9.5-win total or ‑152 playoff price.

Ben Stevens urged bettors to bypass Baltimore’s +800 co-favorite price to win Super Bowl 60, arguing Lamar Jackson’s playoff résumé does not justify the number. Jackson is just 3-5 in the postseason with seven turnovers in his last two playoff runs, including two interceptions versus Kansas City in the 2023 AFC title game and a first-half pick/fumble against Buffalo last January. Stevens added that John Harbaugh’s staff has repeatedly abandoned its run-heavy identity in big spots, resulting in one-and-done exits despite top-seeded regular seasons. Until Jackson carries his 63.2% regular-season success rate into January, Stevens prefers divisional or win-total markets and recommends fading Baltimore in outright Lombardi futures or hedging with “Stage of Elimination” props (AFC Championship exit currently +300).

Ben Stevens said the Ravens are his favorite AFC North wager and projected them for 12–13 regular-season victories despite owning the 21st-toughest schedule. He pointed to Lamar Jackson’s weekly MVP-caliber play, a punishing offensive line powering new bell-cow Derrick Henry, and a deep pass-catching corps of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and veteran addition DeAndre Hopkins. Defensively, Stevens cited the arrival of shutdown corner Jaire Alexander and a returning top-three unit in EPA per play. His plan: lay the –140 divisional price and attack any season-win total that sits at 11.5 or lower. Stevens did caution that Baltimore futures should stop at the conference level—he is not buying Super Bowl tickets until Jackson proves it in January—but he is all-in on regular-season markets.

Ben Stevens urged bettors to avoid Steelers long-shot futures—5-1 to win the AFC North, 20-1 for the conference, and 44-1 for the Super Bowl—because he does not believe their ceiling has meaningfully changed. He highlighted that sportsbooks barely adjusted odds after the flurry of big-name additions (Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith), signaling Pittsburgh is still viewed as a fringe playoff outfit. Stevens instead suggested looking at the stage-of-elimination market, where the Steelers being ousted in the Wild-Card round sits at +360. He argued a 41-year-old Rodgers, paired with Tomlin’s traditionally conservative, defense-first approach, caps the team around 9–10 wins; historically, that record requires winning an opening playoff game just to reach the divisional round, a step he deems unlikely. In his view, Wild-Card elimination tickets or outright fades on deeper runs offer better value than betting on a sudden Super Bowl breakthrough.

Ben Stevens predicted Watt will sign a new deal and remain a Steeler through at least 2025. He compared the situation to Myles Garrett’s $40-million-per-year extension, noting only three edge defenders currently eclipse $35.5 M AAV. Watt’s $28 M salary ranks seventh despite finishing top-five in Defensive Player of the Year voting every season he’s played 15+ games. Stevens rattled off Watt’s resume—seven Pro Bowls, six All-Pros, NFL sack leader in 3-of-5 seasons, league-high six forced fumbles in 2023—to argue the franchise will match the rising edge-rusher market. Betting takeaway: Steelers futures and defensive award markets should be priced assuming Watt remains in black and gold all year.

Ben Stevens dismissed worries that Stefon Diggs’ viral "boat video" will affect the wideout’s production or availability with the Patriots. Diggs reported on time for mandatory mini-camp, addressed the incident privately with Mike Vrabel, and reiterated that there are no pending legal or league-discipline issues. Stevens called the response "wide-receiver-one behavior" and said he is "buying in on the Patriots" because Diggs immediately slots in as the unquestioned target alpha in an offense desperate for explosive plays. With no suspension threat and full participation in June practices, Stevens recommends treating Diggs as a locked-in WR2 with WR1 upside in fantasy drafts and sees New England’s longshot divisional odds as mildly appealing.

Ben Stevens eased earlier worries about C.J. Stroud’s shoulder after watching the Texans’ QB throw without limitations at mandatory mini-camp. Stevens stressed that Houston intentionally shut Stroud down during voluntary OTAs to avoid aggravating minor soreness, noting that every offseason practice is "extra credit" compared to the critical mid-July ramp-up. Because Stroud’s game hinges on elite velocity and accuracy, Stevens will reassess if he is still on a pitch count once training camp opens on July 21. For now, he advises fantasy drafters to treat Stroud as the same top-12 quarterback he was in early best-ball rooms, while keeping a soft red flag if the team announces any workload restrictions in late July.

Ben Stevens advised fading Miami's win total, noting the number sits at 8.5 with the under heavily juiced to -175—an early-June signal the market already expects regression. Stevens pointed out that under Mike McDaniel the Dolphins are just 5-18 outright as underdogs across three seasons, a trend he sees persisting because they consistently beat bad teams but collapse versus playoff-caliber opponents. Contract disputes involving Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith, plus growing hot-seat pressure on McDaniel, add further volatility. Stevens also cited lingering concerns around Tua Tagovailoa’s durability after last year’s injury-marred finish. With a first-place schedule and dates against the entire AFC East, he projects a .500 ceiling and urged bettors to grab the under before the juice climbs or the line falls to 8.

Ben Stevens urged bettors to treat the Detroit Tigers as bona-fide World Series contenders and jump on their current prices (+450 AL pennant, 13-1 World Series). Detroit owns MLB’s best record at 31-17 and a +80 run differential, giving them a four-and-a-half-game cushion in the AL Central and a three-game edge for the league’s top seed. Stevens emphasized frontline pitching: reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and rejuvenated Jack Flaherty form a playoff-caliber 1-2 combo that few American League clubs can match. He also noted the broader landscape—only three AL teams are shorter than 20-1 to win it all, signaling a comparatively shallow field versus the NL. Locking up the division at a current –260 price should grant Detroit home-field and a bye to the ALDS, further enhancing their odds. With a balanced lineup that has scored 257 runs and a front office likely to add bullpen help at the deadline, Stevens expects Detroit’s futures to keep shortening throughout the summer.

Ben Stevens echoed the sell call on Atlanta division futures. He reminded listeners the Braves dug an early hole—starting 0-7, slipping to 5-13, and sitting 14-18 after their first two May games. Although they have since won 10 of 15 and five of their last seven, Ben stressed they still dropped a series to Pittsburgh two weekends ago and remain five games behind the Phillies. Reinforcements help, but closing that gap against two playoff-caliber teams before October is a long shot. Stevens advised bettors to pass on the current number until Atlanta is within a game or two of first place.

Ben Stevens told listeners to bet the over on any first‑round running‑back prop (commonly set at 1.5) because the market is already giving away its hand. Ashton Jeanty is a prohibitive –350 favorite to go inside the top six, while Omarion Hampton is –1500 simply to be selected on Thursday night and –400 to be the first back taken after pick 10. Those numbers, Stevens argued, imply at least two backs are virtual locks, with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins still lurking as late‑round one surprise candidates. He also referenced the positional resurgence—Bijan Robinson (8th) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12th) in 2023—as evidence that front offices are once again willing to invest day‑one capital in bell‑cows. His advice: “If your book is still hanging over 1.5 at plus money, smash it before they catch up.”

Ben Stevens urged bettors to double‑dip on Ashton Jeanty: hammer the under 6.5 draft position at –350 and sprinkle the Raiders at +110 to be the team that pulls the trigger at No. 6. Stevens highlighted new GM John Spitech’s Big Ten pedigree and his public comments lauding both running‑back value and elite special‑teamers—evidence the regime is happy to buck modern positional biases when chasing an offensive identity. He added that Tom Brady’s minority‑owner influence and Antonio Pierce’s run‑first coaching mantra point toward a back who can be the face of the rebrand. Jacksonville, drafting one slot earlier, remains a wild card but is openly shopping No. 5, making it more likely Vegas stays put and selects the Boise State star. According to Stevens, “six is the odds‑on landing spot,” and locking in both markets creates a correlated, low‑risk betting portfolio.

Ben Stevens recommended swallowing the juice on Abdul Carter at -470 to be drafted third overall by the New York Giants. He argued the board is effectively locked: Cam Ward is ticketed for Tennessee at 1.01, Cleveland is expected to chase offense at No. 2, and New York desperately needs an edge rusher to pair with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Carter’s status as the class’s top overall prospect and the Giants’ scheme fit make a late upheaval unlikely, giving bettors a perceived ‘sure thing’ they can anchor parlays with. Stevens added that a Carter‑Giants pairing would create a “race‑car package” pass‑rush trio capable of wreaking havoc from Day 1.

Ben Stevens declared Ashton Jeanty a virtual certainty to be selected inside the top 10, advising bettors to pound any pick‑position under that hangs near 9.5. Stevens cited the position’s recent renaissance—Bijan Robinson went 8th in 2023 and Jahmyr Gibbs 12th the same year—while noting there were zero first‑round backs in 2022 or 2024. Jeanty’s three‑down profile, plus a class light on blue‑chip quarterbacks, gives running‑back‑needy teams “real needle‑moving upside” that justifies the premium. Stevens framed Jeanty as the lone offensive skill player outside Cam Ward who can immediately transform an offense, making a slide past pick 10 highly improbable.