Dallas Goedert’s ADP has slipped 13.6 spots, but Allen encouraged drafters to buy the discount. A.J. Brown is still ramping up from a two-month hamstring issue, and Allen notes any lingering limitation for Brown would funnel extra targets to Goedert, who already led the Eagles in red-zone target share a year ago. Even without a Brown setback, Allen believes Goedert’s combination of route share and red-zone usage makes him a strong bet to rebound into the top-12 fantasy tight ends at a mid-round price.

Allen sounded the alarm on MarShawn Lloyd after Adam Schefter reported another hamstring strain that could keep the back out for the opener "and perhaps beyond." Head coach Matt LaFleur would only say Lloyd will miss "some time," a phrase Allen calls the worst possible timeline. The second-year runner has yet to string together healthy weeks, and his latest setback cements Josh Jacobs’ second-round fantasy value while opening late-round appeal for Emanuel Wilson, who has handled receiving work and goal-line reps this preseason. Allen advised fading Lloyd until he proves durability.

Christian Kirk’s ADP has fallen 11.1 spots while preseason buzz swirls around rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Allen pointed out that beat writers have confirmed Kirk remains locked into Houston’s starting slot role, whereas Higgins and Noel primarily work outside and have taken few snaps with C.J. Stroud. Because Kirk’s underlying role and projected volume are unchanged, Allen views the dip as a buying opportunity for a player who finished as Houston’s most efficient chain-mover last season.

Allen noted Isaac TeSlaa has been the standout of Lions camp and is already drawing calls to leapfrog Tim Patrick as Detroit’s WR3. The big-play rookie’s ADP has climbed 31.9 spots, yet Allen reminds managers that Detroit ran three-wide sets at the ninth-lowest rate in 2024 and Jared Goff threw in the red zone at the sixth-lowest rate. Still, with Detroit potentially tweaking the passing game to compensate for offensive-line injuries, Allen believes TeSlaa’s splash-play profile makes him an appealing bench/FLEX stash for drafters willing to absorb the usage volatility.

Chris Allen said Joe Flacco’s appointment as Cleveland’s Week 1 starter was telegraphed back in April and his very modest +7 ADP bump still fails to capture his passing upside. Last season Flacco ranked third in Air Yards per Game (328.3) and Air Yards per Attempt (8.8) while finishing seventh in Dropbacks per Game (40.0), numbers Allen expects Kevin Stefanski to leverage again. The aggressive down-field profile should prop up Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku, and makes Flacco a cheap QB2 or late superflex anchor. Allen cautioned that the only risk is how long Flacco holds the job before the staff looks at younger passers, but at today’s price he believes the reward outweighs the tenure concern.

Allen highlighted Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s 64.8-spot ADP surge after his 46-yard preseason touchdown against a porous Bengals run defense and the report that Washington is shopping Brian Robinson. If Robinson is moved, the backfield would shrink to three backs plus a mobile quarterback, giving the explosive Croskey-Merritt a real shot at early-down duties in what Allen calls a "potent" Commanders offense. His athletic profile and sudden workload runway make him an upside late-round lottery ticket in drafts.

Chris Allen recommended Jaylen Warren as a mid-round depth target for managers who opened heavy RB but still need weekly FLEX stability. Warren’s timeshare with Najee Harris produced a usable floor last year—he cleared 10 PPR points in eight of his final 11 games—and his 11% target share plus 1.59 yards per route run give him standalone value even without an injury. Allen grouped Warren with Jordan Mason and Tank Bigsby, noting each back’s receiving chops and role insulation make them ideal selections to offset the inherent volatility of relying on a single early-round workhorse like Ashton Jeanty.

Chris Allen explained that if the drafter directly after you already spent a third-round pick on Jalen Hurts, you can safely push quarterback and scoop Kyler Murray a round later. Murray sits atop Fantasy Life’s Tier 3 at the position and offers a dual-threat floor that kept him within 14 fantasy points of C.J. Stroud in preseason projections despite a four-round ADP discount. Allen stressed using neighboring roster construction as leverage; because Team 12 is unlikely to double-tap QB, waiting on Murray lets you shore up WR or RB first while still exiting the seventh round with a high-ceiling passer.

Chris Allen called Zay Flowers a mid-round value compared to Xavier Worthy, noting that public perception leans toward Worthy because of Kansas City’s larger pass volume and the looming Rashee Rice suspension. Allen countered with hard usage data: from Weeks 7-17 Flowers commanded a 25.7% target share, 34.5% air-yard share, and 2.38 yards per route run, dwarfing Worthy’s 18.9%, 25.1%, and 1.24 marks. Given the negligible 1.3 PPR-points-per-game gap between Worthy and Flowers in projections, Allen urged drafters to grab Flowers at the slight discount and, when possible, pair him with another tier-wideout to turn perceived risk into weekly upside.

Chris Allen advised smashing De'Von Achane at 2.02 if he slips because the Dolphins back offers Jahmyr-Gibbs style production at a cheaper ADP (16.2 overall). Achane’s 15.7 projected PPR points per game, 14% target share, and league-leading explosive-run rate give him a clear path to a top-six finish at the position. Allen contrasted him with the next backs in the tier—Josh Jacobs (13.6 PPG) and Bucky Irving (13.4)—arguing the per-touch ceiling and passing-game juice make Achane the clear pick for drafters starting Robust RB or Hero RB builds from the 1.11.

Chris Allen said Ashton Jeanty should be treated as a legitimate first-round selection from the 1.11 because his collegiate resume and the current Raiders depth chart point to immediate three-down usage. Allen highlighted Jeanty’s 215-plus pound frame, 16% college target share, and 87th-percentile yards after contact numbers as evidence he can handle both early-down grinding and passing-game work. Las Vegas has historically funneled volume to one runner—Josh Jacobs averaged 21.2 touches per game in 2022—and the front office added no serious competition behind Jeanty. With that workhorse path and a projected 13.2 PPR points per game before any receiving bonuses, Allen labeled Jeanty an RB1 you can confidently build a Robust-RB start around.

Allen highlighted Zach Charbonnet as the Round 8 follow-up to Mason, noting a Yahoo Sports report that Charbonnet has been ‘working as the RB1 during preseason.’ The Seattle back already carried an every-down profile coming out of UCLA, and Allen believes HC Mike Macdonald’s desire to lean on the run gives Charbonnet a path to out-kick his ADP. In a roster that still needs rotational starters, grabbing Charbonnet’s emerging volume—especially with Kenneth Walker nursing chronic groin issues—offers inexpensive upside and protects against early-season depth crunches.

While mapping out a Zero-RB build from the 1.12 slot, Allen slotted Jordan Mason in Round 7 as a plug-and-play depth piece. He pointed out that Mason is projected to split early-down work with Aaron Jones but, crucially, is the favorite for goal-line carries in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. That role insulation allows drafters to patch the glaring RB hole created by opening WR-heavy and still chase weekly touchdown spikes once bye weeks hit.

Allen recommended fading Breece Hall at the 3.12 turn despite consensus ADP putting him there. Although Hall still projects for 225.4 PPR points, Allen is worried about two red flags: (1) the quality of the Jets offense, which drags down touchdown equity, and (2) Braelon Allen’s potential ‘ascension’ that could siphon early-down work. Because Hall’s value is tied almost entirely to a three-down role, Allen argues that drafters should pivot to sturdier profiles—namely Alvin Kamara or even TreVeyon Henderson—rather than risk getting stuck with a shaky RB1 after 22 more players come off the board.

Chris Allen advised fantasy drafters picking at the 1.12 / 2.01 turn to pull Alvin Kamara up to the 3.12 slot (or even a few spots earlier) rather than blindly following ADP. Allen cited Fantasy Life’s projections that give Kamara 256.3 PPR points versus Breece Hall’s 225.4, noting that Kamara’s receiving workload inside a Pete Carmichael–style offense remains intact. Because Hayden Winks’ diminishing-returns study shows minimal penalty when you reach only one round, Allen is comfortable sacrificing a bit of closing line value to secure Kamara’s pass-catching upside. The Saints’ overall offense is expected to be mediocre—similar to the Jets—so Allen wants the back who can rack up high-value targets regardless of game script. He framed Kamara as a high-floor anchor for Zero-RB or Balanced starts when elite backs are gone by the end of Round 2.

Chris Allen labeled Drake Maye the late-round dual-threat QB to chase. Since becoming starter in Week 6, Maye posted a 10.8 % scramble rate—second only to Jayden Daniels—and the sixth-most rushing yards per game (32.4). He still finished tenth in completion percentage over expected (+3.5 %) despite a thin supporting cast. Allen expects more designed runs now that OC Josh McDaniels is back and can recycle the Cam Newton read-option package for Maye’s 6-4, 225-lb frame. New England added Stefon Diggs and three offensive linemen, boosting Maye’s passing ceiling. With a consensus ADP of 124.7, Allen believes Maye’s rushing floor plus upgraded weapons give him realistic fringe-top-12 upside, making him his preferred late QB dart.

Chris Allen urged drafters to scoop up Jaylen Waddle at his 73.9 ADP, arguing last year’s two-TD, injury-plagued season hides a clear path back to top-12 production. Waddle opened 2024 with 109 yards on just a 13.9 % target share, then watched QB and personal injuries sink the offense, playing five games under 80 % snaps and missing Weeks 16-17 with a knee strain. Allen noted his slot rate cratered to 22.5 % while his aDOT climbed to 10.3, forcing tougher perimeter routes while banged up. With Waddle healthy, Tua Tagovailoa upright, Mike McDaniel’s middle-field YAC scheme humming, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine signed to keep Waddle inside, Allen expects the Dolphins to return to the concentrated passing attack that once produced dual top-12 receivers. He prefers the younger, cheaper Waddle over Tyreek Hill in every draft.

Chris Allen said Brown offers the exact three traits he wants in an early-round running back—early-down volume, goal-line carries, and passing-game involvement—and backed it up with hard numbers from Weeks 4-17 of 2024. Brown handled 77.4 % of Cincinnati’s first-down rushes and ranked top-12 in both rushing success rate and forced-missed-tackle rate on those plays. He averaged 3.4 adjusted yards after contact per attempt (12th) and tied for third among all backs with 20 touches inside the five, converting nine total touchdowns (second-most). Allen added that Zac Taylor even targeted him four times inside the five and that his 19 % targets per route run (11th) and top-four yards per route run prove real pass-game juice. With preseason reps showing growing chemistry with the QB, Allen is drafting Brown as a first-round caliber back despite a consensus ADP of 24.6.

Chris Allen said he is "still banging the drum" for Jordan Mason and is drafting him aggressively in the middle rounds. Allen’s bullish stance rests on three points: (1) Minnesota upgraded its run-blocking unit by signing two veteran offensive linemen in free agency and spending a first-round pick on another, creating what Allen called a "positive offensive environment." (2) Incumbent starter Aaron Jones is 30 years old and has worked in committees the past few seasons, so Mason has a realistic path to early-season touches and an eventual starting role. (3) Mason has already flashed RB1 capability in previous spot starts, giving Allen confidence the young back can deliver both a weekly floor and league-winning ceiling if Jones falters. Because of that combination of clearer opportunity, improved blocking and demonstrated talent, Allen advised fantasy managers to "smash draft" on Mason wherever he is still available in the mid-rounds.

Chris Allen said he "can’t stop drafting" Jordan Mason and laid out a detailed case for him to smash his current mid-round ADP. Minnesota upgraded its blocking with two veteran linemen in free agency and a first-round rookie, creating a friendlier run environment. The only back nominally ahead of Mason is 30-year-old Aaron Jones, a player who has operated in committees for multiple seasons. Allen pointed to Mason’s seven-game sample with San Francisco before a 2024 shoulder injury to show the full three-down profile: 120 early-down carries (2nd most in the league during that span), a 25.8% forced-missed-tackle rate (2nd of 14 qualifying RBs), 46.7% success rate (7th), and a 10.0% explosive-play rate (T-4th). Inside the 10-yard line he dominated work, logging 21 attempts to teammate Isaac Guerendo’s two (91.3% share), the most green-zone carries in the league. At 223 pounds—15 heavier than Jones—Allen expects Kevin O’Connell to lean on Mason for short-yardage and goal-line work. Mason also ran a route on 58.7% of dropbacks and owned a 5.7% target share, dwarfing Guerendo (7.1% route rate, 0.5% targets). Although his 0.6 yards per route run ranked just 13th, he posted the highest air-yards-per-target mark among the cohort (4.1) and a top-7 catch rate, suggesting usable receiving upside. Allen concluded that if Jones misses any time, Mason has a realistic path to finish the season as a top-24 back, making him a priority target in both traditional redraft and best-ball formats.

Chris Allen acknowledged Chris Olave’s WR1-level 2024 workload but urged caution because the Saints currently project to start Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler at quarterback. Allen expects efficiency to crater compared to Olave’s previous seasons, capping touchdown upside and week-to-week stability. Unless New Orleans solves the quarterback spot before Week 1, Allen sees Olave as a shaky bet to pay off his top-25 overall ADP.

Chris Allen warned drafters not to chase a Jaylen Warren breakout. Pittsburgh imported Kaleb Johnson to handle the bulk of early-down work, and Aaron Rodgers’ arrival signals a pass-first approach that siphons the check-down volume Warren lived on. Allen doubts Warren can crack the top-24 backs under that usage tree, so the mid-round price tag is more floor than ceiling—he prefers pivoting to sturdier RB2 options in the same range.

Chris Allen advised scooping Trevor Lawrence in the 12th round or later as an inexpensive opening-month starter. Lawrence disappointed last season, but Allen pointed out that Jacksonville added vertical threat Brian Thomas and versatile weapon Travis Hunter while bringing in head coach Liam Coen, whose Tampa tenure was heavy on play-action and pace. Allen used 4for4’s schedule tool to flag a soft early slate, so managers can lock in starters at the premium positions, grab Lawrence as a plug-and-play QB, and pivot to waivers if the gamble fails—minimal opportunity cost, high upside if Coen's scheme clicks.

Chris Allen said De'Von Achane is a perfectly viable selection at the 1.10 because his 2024 usage already mirrors the backs going in the early half-round: a 54% rushing-attempt share, 18% target share, and a 75% inside-the-five carry rate. Achane finished as the overall RB5 despite injury turbulence, Skylar Thompson starts, and general "bad vibes" in Miami. With Raheem Mostert no longer siphoning red-zone work and Jonnu Smith’s departure freeing short-area targets, Allen expects Achane to push even closer to true bell-cow volume. The Dolphins kept their explosive, Shanahan-style run game intact and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa raises touchdown equity, so Allen is comfortable building Hero RB, Balanced, or even Robust RB rosters around Achane at RB5 ADP.

Allen thinks the market is sleeping on Jake Ferguson at TE20. Ferguson and Dak Prescott appeared together in only seven games last year before both went down, leading to an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ discount. Despite the truncated season, Ferguson ranked 10th among tight ends in targets per route run and drew the second-most red-zone targets from Prescott. Dallas traded for George Pickens, a move that signals full confidence in an aggressive passing rebound. Allen argued that if fantasy drafters are betting on a Cowboys offensive resurgence through high ADPs for CeeDee Lamb, Pickens, and Prescott, they should not let Ferguson—the offense’s primary seam and red-zone option—sit on the board at TE20.

Allen urged managers to grab Emeka Egbuka at his WR57 price because opportunity is guaranteed right away. Chris Godwin is expected to “miss a couple of games,” and the Buccaneers ran three-receiver sets at the eighth-highest rate last season. As a first-round pick, Egbuka will be on the field from the opening whistle, and Allen highlighted that routes are the first prerequisite for targets. Given Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy DNA and Egbuka’s polished Ohio State resume, Allen expects the rookie to outperform his 13th-round ADP easily.

Allen called Jaylen Waddle a screaming value at WR44 (Fantasy Life WR29). Miami’s passing attack cratered in 2024 while Tua Tagovailoa missed six weeks and Waddle fought through multiple injuries. Tagovailoa’s average depth of target fell from 8.2 to 6.1 yards, yet Waddle continued to run intermediate patterns (aDOT 10.4 in 2023, 9.8 in 2024), leading to a stylistic mismatch. Allen expects a correction in 2025: the Dolphins added perimeter specialist Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, freeing Waddle to work more from the slot or off the line against softer coverage. With Tyreek Hill generating off-field distractions and Waddle freshly extended, Allen predicts the Tagovailoa-Waddle connection will quickly outkick current draft cost.

Allen labeled Jordan Mason the sneakiest late-round hammer on the board at RB41. Minnesota’s offseason moves signal they want to ease the load on quarterback J.J. McCarthy, and Mason fits that plan. While filling in for Christian McCaffrey in Weeks 1-9 last year, the third-year back owned a 53.0% rushing share, a league-leading 73.3% inside-five touch rate, and a 53.0% route rate. At 223 pounds he is both younger and heavier than Aaron Jones, suggesting the short-yardage and goal-line work is already his. If Jones misses any time, Allen believes Mason’s workload would skyrocket and push him into early-round territory, making him a must-stash now.

Allen advised scooping up Isiah Pacheco at his Round-7 CBS ADP (RB31) even though his 2024 peripherals were ugly—3.7 yards per carry, 2.39 yards after contact per attempt, and 0.81 yards per route run, all career lows. He reminded readers that Pacheco broke his leg in Week 2, missed two months, and played the rest of the year at far less than 100%. With both legs finally intact and a new offensive tackle already ‘turning heads’ in camp, Allen expects Kansas City’s protection issues to be solved and Pacheco’s violent running style to resurface. That combination makes him a glaring value in a part of the draft Allen calls the former RB Dead Zone.

Chris Allen said drafters can wait and still grab a top-15 quarterback by targeting Drake Maye at his CBS ADP of QB21. Allen pointed out that Maye posted a 10.7% scramble rate last season, second-highest among active starters, and ranked fifth in QB rushing yards per game. That dual-threat profile gives him weekly ceiling and floor advantages over non-mobile passers such as Joe Flacco (QB17), J.J. McCarthy (QB19, only 32 collegiate scrambles and coming off a knee injury), and Geno Smith (QB20) who all go ahead of him in CBS rooms. Even if Maye’s passing efficiency lags, Allen believes his legs alone can vault him into every-week starter territory, making him an ideal target for fantasy managers employing a late-round QB strategy.

Chris Allen spotlighted Brian Thomas as the deep-threat pivot at 1.08 for managers who prize spike-week upside. Thomas finished 2024 with the third-most deep targets in the league and already flashed an 85-yard score for Jacksonville. His 34.6% air-yard share and 25.5% target-per-route rate keep him in the same opportunity tier as the other first-round wideouts, but the Jaguars’ penchant for vertical shots means any catch can swing a matchup. Allen recommended selecting Thomas when you are comfortable filling the roster with higher-floor players later, because Thomas alone supplies the explosive ceiling the rest of the build might lack.

Chris Allen framed Nico Collins as the ideal centerpiece for a balanced start from the eight-spot. Collins matched his tier-mates with a 27.0% target share and ranked third in explosive-play rate, giving him week-tilting upside to pair with an early running back or tight end. Allen acknowledged Houston’s below-average offensive line could dent efficiency but believes C.J. Stroud’s aggressiveness keeps Collins’ big-play profile intact. Taking Collins at 1.08 lets managers leave the first three rounds with one premium RB, one additional WR, and still own a bona-fide WR1, neatly threading the needle between safety and ceiling.

Chris Allen cautioned against opening RB-RB and then drafting Amon-Ra St. Brown at 1.08. St. Brown offers elite floor—he ran from the slot at the sixth-highest rate in the league and had only two games under five targets—but Allen’s mock showed that a Robust RB approach left him chasing lower-ceiling receivers like Courtland Sutton as his WR2. Because slot-driven volume rarely produces week-winning spikes, Allen advised pivoting to a balanced or Zero RB build once you select St. Brown, or aggressively targeting upside perimeter wideouts in rounds 3-5 so you do not fall behind at the position.

Chris Allen said drafters sitting at pick 1.08 can confidently open with Malik Nabers and ignore running back for several rounds. Nabers posted a league-best 34.9% target share, a 30.9% targets-per-route rate and the fourth-highest air-yard share among wide receivers. While only 75% of his looks were charted as catchable (28th of 70 WRs with 400+ routes) because of New York’s shaky quarterback play, Allen argued the sheer volume outweighs efficiency concerns. Nabers supplies a weekly double-digit target floor, allowing managers to hammer mid-round backs and still lock in WR1 production—making a classic Zero RB build the optimal path whenever he falls to 1.08.

To plug the RB2 hole behind his Jeanty anchor, Chris Allen recommended drafting TreVeyon Henderson in the mid rounds. Henderson may open the season behind Rhamondre Stevenson, but Allen likes the rookie’s pass-catching chops and home-run speed to tilt the backfield his way by mid-season. The Patriots’ thin receiving corps amplifies that receiving upside, giving Henderson a path to the kind of high-value touches that can swing fantasy matchups down the stretch while allowing managers to focus early picks on sturdier starters elsewhere.

Allen applied the same PROE rebound logic to Dak Prescott, calling him undervalued after Dallas slipped into negative pass rate territory in 2024 despite having superior talent at quarterback and wide receiver. If the Cowboys merely return to neutral game scripts, Prescott’s attempt total should jump back into the weekly top-10 range, offering a cheap stack with Dallas pass-catchers for drafters who prioritized other positions early. Allen views him as the perfect late-round safety net in builds that grab only one elite "onesie" (QB or TE) during the first six rounds.

Chris Allen labeled Jordan Love a prime late-round quarterback target. Green Bay’s pass rate over expectation nosedived from +1.0% in 2023 to –8.0% in 2024 while Love dealt with injuries, leaving him with just 29.7 dropbacks per game after returning. Allen expects that number to climb toward league average in 2025 after the Packers spent a first-round pick on wideout Matthew Golden and have a healthy Love heading into camp. Even a modest PROE rebound would push Love’s volume into the Jared Goff (33.4) range; combined with his scrambling ability, that creates inexpensive QB1 upside for fantasy drafters who wait on the position.

Chris Allen said fantasy managers drafting from pick 1.07 should smash the button on Ashton Jeanty and build a Hero-RB roster around him. The Boise State product earned top-6 NFL draft capital from the Raiders and has only a 33-year-old backup behind him, so touches are essentially locked in. Allen highlighted Jeanty’s eye-popping college tape—he generated more yards AFTER contact than every other FBS back recorded in total yardage last year—and noted that Fantasy Life projections slot him for 238.5 carries (7th among RBs), 65 targets (5th) and 246.4 PPR points (6th). That workload gives Jeanty immediate top-8 overall upside with very little situational risk, making him the clear choice once the consensus top six players are gone.

Chris Allen argued Bijan Robinson deserves equal consideration at 1.02 because Michael Penix’s arrival unlocked the receiving workload that can push Robinson into overall RB1 territory. Before the QB switch, Robinson already owned 60% of Atlanta’s carries and a 13.6% target share, ranking as an elite workload by Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report (UR Score). Over Robinson’s final three games with Penix his touches jumped from 20.8 to 24.7 per game, route rate spiked from 62.4% with Kirk Cousins to 76.6% with Penix, and his receiving aDOT leaped from –1.2 to 4.0 yards, signaling designed down-field concepts like the screen clip Allen highlighted. Despite Atlanta’s lower team expectations, Robinson nearly matched Barkley with only two fewer explosive plays and actually posted a higher success rate (55.6%). Reduced Tyler Allgeier usage plus a Penix-friendly scheme gives Robinson unmatched dual-threat upside, making him the centerpiece of a “Balanced” roster start from the 1.02.

Chris Allen said Saquon Barkley is the safest way to open a 2025 draft from the 1.02 because his ceiling-plus-floor profile is already proven inside the Eagles’ offense. Barkley generated 30 explosive runs during the 2024 regular season and, counting the playoffs, ripped off 13 carries of 34-plus yards, eight of which went for touchdowns. He finished first in expected points added and still ranked fifth in success rate, a metric Allen noted is more predictive of future production than raw EPA. Philadelphia’s line remains a top-10 group (8th in Adjusted Yards Before Contact per Rush, 9th in Run-Block Win Rate), but Barkley’s own speed was responsible for the 4th- and 5th-fastest ball-carrier times last year, evidence the line is not carrying him. With no new target competition, Barkley should at least match last year’s 10.3% target share while again handling bell-cow rushing volume. Allen concluded that the intact offensive infrastructure and Barkley’s dual-threat usage make him an ideal “Hero RB” foundation when drafting from the two-spot.