Davis Mattek called Jake Ferguson a "huge winner" following Dallas’ quiet offseason at pass catcher and said the tight end’s current ADP around pick 140 will not last. With only Jalen Tolbert and an aging Brandin Cooks behind CeeDee Lamb, Mattek projects Ferguson to push for 100 targets—up from last year’s 93—while maintaining his top-10 red-zone share among tight ends (19 % of the team’s looks inside the 20). He emphasized that Mike McCarthy has historically funneled middle-of-the-field volume to the position (see 2016-18 Rodgers/Cook and 2020 Dalton/Schultz splits). Mattek is grabbing Ferguson as a TE2 on Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts builds but is also comfortable pairing him with another late option when the room forgets about him after the 12th round.

Erik Beimfohr said the market has over-corrected on Jake Ferguson, turning last summer’s mild overdraft into a 2025 bargain. Dallas failed to add a single pass catcher in either free agency or the draft, leaving Ferguson untouched atop the target tree behind CeeDee Lamb. He reminded listeners that Ferguson finished as the TE8 in half-PPR despite a middling 13 percent target share; if the Cowboys defense regresses and Dallas throws even two more times per game, Ferguson’s volume could jump into the elite tier. Coupled with Dak Prescott’s top-five red-zone accuracy (68 percent completion inside the 20), Ferguson’s weekly touchdown odds remain strong. Beimfohr is scooping him at his current double-digit ADP, arguing we’ve "course-corrected too far the other way" after last year’s modest disappointment.

Beimfohr called Jake Ferguson’s current DraftKings ADP "ridiculous," noting the Cowboys did nothing to threaten his role yet the market has pushed him down nearly five rounds from last summer. Ferguson finished 2023 seventh among tight ends in targets (102) and fourth in red-zone looks while running a route on 78% of Dak Prescott drop-backs over the final eight games. Dallas still has an elite offensive line, a pass-rate over expectation near 10%, and vacated targets with no major additions at receiver or tight end. Beimfohr views Ferguson as a locked-in, every-down TE with weekly two-touchdown upside who should be going in the seventh round alongside Sam LaPorta’s rookie-year price, not flirting with pick 110. He is jamming Ferguson wherever possible before the summer correction hits.

Pete Overzet called Jake Ferguson "a smash" at his current Eliminator/BBM price, noting that the bet is identical to 2024—only cheaper. Ferguson closed last summer with an ADP around 90 after posting 1.63 yards per route, 23 red-zone targets (T-2nd among tight ends) and 87% route participation over Dallas’ final eight games. His 2025 tag, however, has slid into the 110-120 range because the position was flooded by rookies (Colston Loveland, Brock Bowers, Cade Stover) and the veteran elite (Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews) fell several spots, pushing everyone else down the board. Unless the Cowboys add a serious receiving tight end—something Pete doubts given cap constraints—Ferguson’s role is unchanged. Pete expects him to creep back inside the top-100 once casual drafters realize the market over-corrected, making him a priority mid-round target for both upside and weekly floor.

Beimfohr called Jake Ferguson’s current DraftKings ADP "ridiculous," pointing out that the Cowboys did absolutely nothing to threaten his every-down role after he finished 2023 as TE9 in PPR points per game. Ferguson was going in the 70s and 80s last summer; now he routinely slips past pick 100 despite 93% route participation over Dallas’ final six games and Dak Prescott’s continued red-zone affinity for the tight end position (27% target share inside the 10). With no added pass catchers and Brian Schottenheimer retaining a pass-heavy approach, Beimfohr views Ferguson as a plug-and-play TE1 who should be drafted two rounds ahead of consensus to capture closing-line value before the inevitable summer correction.

Adam Levitan tagged Jake Ferguson as a sneaky post-hype winner after Dallas skipped wide receiver entirely in the draft. With Jalen Tolbert currently the WR2 and no free-agent splash imminent, Ferguson—already coming off 93 targets and a TE8 finish—projects to function as Dak Prescott’s de-facto second option behind CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys poured resources into the offensive line (first-round guard Tyler Booker) rather than pass-catchers, a signal that Mike McCarthy will reprise the quick-hitting concepts that funneled 22 % of Prescott’s attempts to tight ends last year. Levitan expects Ferguson to see a 20-plus-percent target share in a pass rate that ranked fifth in neutral script before Prescott’s injury, making him a top-7 TE in season-long leagues and a weekly DFS cash-game staple whenever he’s priced below the elite tier.