Welsh pivoted his daily home-run call to Manny Machado after noting Brandon Pfaadt’s crippling gopher-ball issue (1.8 HR/9) and 46 % fly-ball rate. Machado owns multiple long balls off Pfaadt already and carries a .600 slugging percentage in the matchup. With Petco playing small in the summer heat and Pfaadt’s fastball leaking middle-in, Welsh views Machado as the slate’s premier dinger pick, calling the matchup "BP at the Home Run Derby."

Joey Pisapia called Nick Pivetta one of 2024’s best return-on-investment arms but warned that his fantasy value is heavily park-dependent. Through 109.1 innings Pivetta sports a 3.07 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 114 K/27 BB, yet a deeper dive shows a 2.30 ERA at Petco versus 4.09 on the road. Pisapia noted an uptick in barreled contact and hard-hit rate that could bite Pivetta away from San Diego’s forgiving dimensions. The right-hander has also swapped usage of his sweeper and curveball, producing low batting-average outcomes but leaning on the Padres’ elite infield defense. Pisapia’s recommendation: stream or start Pivetta with confidence at home, tread carefully—or even shop him—before tough road series where those batted-ball issues are more likely to surface.

Welsh called Kevin Ginkel a viable but risky add. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen is down to “the last man standing,” and Torey Lovullo’s loyalty means Ginkel keeps the ninth despite being “awful” this season. Save chances should be plentiful on a competitive Arizona club, but Welsh warned another blow-up could end his run or lead to a trade. He’s worth a claim if you need immediate saves, yet Welsh would budget less FAAB than for Ronnie Henriquez and treat Ginkel as a short-term play.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Arizona to close the series. Padres starter Pedro Vasquez has a worrying 49-to-42 K/BB ratio across 18 starts, meaning plenty of base runners for a D-backs lineup tied for fourth in MLB runs. Arizona southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez had a blip last outing but allowed two or fewer earned in five straight prior, and the tout trusts him more than Vasquez. Given recent form and San Diego’s uncertainty on the mound, Arizona gets the nod.

Just A Bet Outside said Wednesday’s matchup is a "holy advantage" for San Diego because Brandon Fott is, in his words, "flat-out not good." He pointed to several individual batter histories that underline how hittable Fott has been: Jake Cronenworth is 7-for-16 off him and Yandy Diaz is 4-for-7, while even Fernando Tatis Jr. has 16 career plate appearances. The host added that Fott’s opponent, Dylan Cease, has allowed 3+ earned runs in seven of his last nine, but still grades out better than Fott, making the Padres the clear side to back. The takeaway was to fade Fott with Padres moneyline or team-total bets and to build DFS stacks around San Diego hitters.

Lindquist laid -1.5 with the Padres against Arizona, calling the matchup a "clear pitching mismatch." Brandon Pfaadt’s four-seamer/sinker/change/curve/cutter cocktail is getting torched for a 13.4 % barrel rate, 50.3 % hard-hit rate, and .568 expected slugging. Velocity is down half a tick and whiffs have cratered, making the new contract look like "one of the worst in baseball." San Diego’s offense has underwhelmed lately, but Lindquist believes Petco’s marine layer is less of an issue on this warm July evening and projects 5+ Padres runs. With Michael King’s 29 % K-rate on the other side, he feels the Friars win by multiple runs over 60 % of the time, justifying the plus-money run line.

Bamford laid the short –120 with San Diego, citing Nick Pivetta’s (transcript lists him as the starter) spotless 6-0 home record and 2.55 Petco ERA. Merrill Kelly brings his usual steady 3.55/1.09 line, but the Diamondbacks have struggled when facing high-end arms, posting just a 4-10 record versus starters who carry sub-3.50 ERAs. San Diego has captured six of the last eight meetings with Arizona, and Bamford likes that matchup trend combined with the Padres’ 28-18 home mark. He called the game "a close one" but believes Petco Park plus the better bullpen tilts it San Diego’s way.

Ron Pick Dawgz grabbed Arizona for both the first five and full-game money lines. He noted Nick Pivetta has surrendered a homer in four of his last five outings and now draws a Diamondbacks order that ranks top-10 in OPS versus right-handed pitching. Merrill Kelly provides the steadier arm on the other side and faces a Padres lineup sitting 25th in both OPS and ISO against righties over the past 30 days. Given the combination of Pivetta’s gopher-ball issues and San Diego’s recent offensive funk, Ron sees value in backing the Snakes early and often.

Brad Pick Dawgz backed the Padres money line for Game 2 because he trusts Nick Pivetta more than Merrill Kelly right now. Pivetta is rolling—zero earned runs at Washington on June 25 and just one earned versus a loaded Phillies lineup on July 2—while Kelly has allowed 3+ runs in three of his last four outings, surrendered a homer in each of those starts, and struggled with walks. Brad also flagged Arizona’s bullpen as an ongoing liability that has coughed up several late-game leads and noted Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions plus San Diego’s stronger home splits. With the Padres likely motivated after a potential Game 1 loss and getting a “pretty good price,” he advised taking the Padres money line.

Eric Lindquist flagged Eugenio Suarez as a live long-ball candidate when the Padres face Nick Pivetta. Petco Park played homer-happy last year but has returned to neutral in 2024, yet Lindquist thinks Suarez’s power can still play because Pivetta’s contact profile is deteriorating: an 11.5 % barrel rate paired with a 19.5-degree average launch angle allowed. Suarez’s own launch-angle-friendly swing should marry perfectly with Pivetta’s fly-ball tendencies. Lindquist noted that San Diego’s bullpen-centric game plans mean they will happily trade a solo shot for five decent innings from Pivetta, increasing Suarez’s chance of seeing hittable four-seamers in the middle innings. He prefers a Suarez over 1.5 total-bases ticket but is comfortable escalating to a +400 or better homer prop if the market hangs a fat number.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Padres moneyline behind a scorching Yu Darvish. The veteran is 9-2 overall and has surrendered just one earned run in his last 13 innings, including 10 Ks versus Washington. Arizona counters with Zac Gallen, who was roughed up for 10 hits by Colorado, and still doesn’t have Corbin Carroll at full strength. San Diego’s deeper lineup plus revenge for dropping two of three in Arizona earlier this year nudged the tout toward the Friars at Petco.

Lindquist took the Arizona Money Line at plus money in San Diego, arguing Zac Gallen’s recent struggles are overstated. He pointed to open-roof Chase Field inflating Gallen’s early numbers, noting the right-hander still owns a 30.8% CSW and career-best 47.4% ground-ball rate. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish makes his season debut after a disrupted ramp-up and is unlikely to eclipse 70 pitches, leaving the Padres’ overworked middle relief to cover bulk innings. Arizona’s offense grades top-10 against right-handed velocity and will avoid Josh Hader after his weekend three-out save. Lindquist called the +120 range a clear market overreaction and his favorite underdog play on Monday’s slate.

Dylan Rockford set San Diego as a –140 favorite and is willing to lay that price or better. He pointed to Nick Pivetta’s 9-2 record and sparkling 2.55 ERA at Petco, highlighting that the right-hander has yielded just one total run over his last 13 home innings. Rockford contrasted that with Zac Gallen’s season-long spiral (5.45 ERA and a 3-7 skid for Arizona in his last ten turns) plus a bottom-five Diamondbacks bullpen that keeps blowing winnable games. Arizona’s lineup is still producing, but Rockford believes their pitching issues will outweigh any offensive edge. He projected the total at 8.4 runs and would lean over if books open a flat 8, but the primary play is Padres moneyline at –140 or better.