Kenny G recommended laying the short –115 on the Rangers, arguing Texas checks every box while Atlanta continues to unravel. He highlighted Bryce Elder’s shaky profile (5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER in his most recent outing; season-long command issues) and noted the Braves’ offense has produced just 5, 3, 3 and 0 runs during a four-game slide that has them 23rd in MLB scoring and 21st in batting average. Atlanta’s bullpen has slipped to a 4.05 ERA and the club owns an ugly 18-33 road record. By contrast, Texas has ripped off five straight wins and eight of nine, owns a 33-20 mark at Globe Life Field, and sports a top-three bullpen. Kenny praised Jack Leiter’s gradual progress (two-start run of 11.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER) and the offense’s sudden pulse (6-8-2-6-7 runs last five games despite ranking 22nd in season scoring). With the market still pricing this near a pick’em, Kenny believes the Rangers’ form, pen edge and home dominance make them the clear side, calling any conversation about the full-game Under 9 “secondary” to simply backing Texas.

Harrelson’s final play is Adolis Garcia OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Garcia has cleared this number in both games of the series (1 H, 1 R, 2 RBI in the latest) and 12 of his last 20 overall (60%). He has hit the mark five straight times against Atlanta, averaging 4.3 plate appearances during his current 20-game sample. Although his season slash is a pedestrian .228, Garcia bumps up to .239 versus right-handers, and he draws an opposing pitcher giving up a .317 average to right-handed bats (.292 overall). With Texas’ offense in a favorable spot, Harrelson expects Garcia to collect at least two combined counting stats again.

Harrelson took Jack Leiter OVER 4.5 hits allowed, highlighting that the rookie has surrendered 5+ hits in 7 of his last 10 starts and 11 of his last 20 overall. On the 2025 season he is 9-for-17 (53%) to the over, and sports books have the line as high as ‑150, indicating sharp money on more hits. Leiter’s lone recent under came against lowly Oakland; now he faces an Atlanta club that, while only 14th in batting average, still profiles as a markedly stronger offense. Harrelson believes the combination of Leiter’s recent struggles and the Braves’ depth will push him past five hits allowed once again.

Kenny G labeled Texas –125 his favorite side of the slate. Kumar Rocker just fired 6.1 one-hit, scoreless innings against Detroit and now gets a Braves lineup that sits 22nd in runs, 20th in average, and 21st in slugging while averaging only 3.0 runs per game over its past five. Atlanta is a brutal 8-31 on the road and hands the ball to Grant Holmes, whose 3.81 ERA masks a 1.4 HR/9 and shaky 1.35 WHIP. Kenny expects the Rangers to tag Holmes for a couple early and then let their bullpen—ranked third in MLB with a 3.24 ERA—slam the door. Meanwhile Texas has won seven of eight, scoring 8-2-6-7 in its last four, and faces an Atlanta relief corps Kenny called “kind of bad.” With Arlington trending 35-16 to the under, Kenny also leans under 8.5, but the actionable wager is Rangers moneyline at –125.

Mark’s third official play is Texas ‑120 against Atlanta. He highlighted that the Rangers grade out as the best pitching staff in baseball over the past week and believes that elite run prevention, combined with a still-dangerous lineup, makes them undervalued. With Atlanta’s bats scuffling and the market yet to adjust to Texas’ recent form, Mark is comfortable laying the short price and expects the Rangers to handle business at home.

Lonte Smith urged listeners to play the full-game Under in Rangers-Tigers, saying the market is still underrating just how dominant Nathan Eovaldi has been. Eovaldi has ceded ONLY one total earned run over his last three starts and has not allowed more than a single run since April 25—an 11-start heater that has produced a sub-1.00 ERA. On the other side is left-hander Joey Wentz, whom Smith "doesn’t trust at all" despite a decent showing against the Yankees. Wentz surrendered nine earned in the two outings before that and owns persistent homer issues. Smith expects Texas’ staff to limit Detroit to a lone run while the Rangers manufacture three of their own, projecting a 3-1 type game. Because he believes the low-scoring script lines up with a comfortable home win, he tacked on Texas –1.5 at +135 in parlays but made the Under his primary wager.

Scott Reichel recommended taking Texas –1.5 at +135, noting the club has won eight of ten and allowed fewer than three runs in seven straight games. Nathan Eovaldi returns from an 11-day breather having given up one total run across his last three starts and owns a 1.54 ERA since late April. Opposite him is Joey Wentz, whom Reichel labels "not very good" despite a decent outing against the Yankees, and an Atlanta roster already 13 games under .500 and likely to sell at the deadline. With Corey Seager healthy and the offense finally above league-average again, Reichel expects the Rangers’ elite rotation to keep rolling and sees plus money on the run line as the best way to attack the matchup.

Kenny G labeled the Rangers –170 moneyline his “lock of the day,” pointing to a huge pitching and bullpen edge. Nathan Eovaldi owns a 1.58 ERA and has allowed only one earned run over his three starts since returning from the IL, all Texas victories. He expects Eovaldi to be lights-out again and hand things to a bullpen Kenny ranks top-three in MLB. Atlanta counters with converted reliever Joey Wentz, whose lone start for the Braves was four decent innings before the pen imploded in a 12-9 loss. The Braves sit 18-31 on the road with a 4.20 bullpen ERA and an offense that is 22nd in runs scored. Meanwhile Texas is 31-20 at home and an MLB-best 35-16 to the under there, reinforcing Kenny’s lean toward the game total of 8 staying low. He even floated the possibility of a combined shutout, but the actionable bet he’s hammering is Rangers ML at –170.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Wyatt Langford over 1.5 total bases against emergency starter Joey Wentz and a stretched Braves rotation. Wentz owns a career 1.71 WHIP and was giving up a .280 expected average in AAA before the call-up, so Lindquist expects plenty of hittable fastballs. Langford’s post-injury sprint speed has climbed back into the 94th percentile, giving him multiple paths—gap power or beating out infield hits—to reach two bases even inside pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field. Lindquist called it one of the better plus-money props on Friday’s card.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode with Texas on the moneyline thanks to Nathan Eovaldi’s dominant 2025 stat line: 1.58 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and only one earned run allowed over his last 18.2 innings. The Rangers have won six of his past nine starts. Atlanta’s lineup has gone ice-cold since the break and now faces left-hander Joey Wentz, who has been solid (1.13 ERA in July) but receives little run support. Even a modest Rangers offensive output should be enough behind Eovaldi’s current form.

B Wade played Corey Seeger over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. Seeger has cashed this number in 17 of his last 20 games and is a perfect 6-for-6 since the All-Star break. He owns a .375 average (3-for-8) off Friday starter Joey Wentz, a lefty who failed to escape the 2nd inning the last time he faced Texas, surrendering five hits and two runs in one frame. Wade noted no Detroit reliever profiles as a major threat and expects Seeger, who leads MLB in hard-hit rate post-break, to stay hot in a favorable Arlington hitting environment.

WagerTalk Host leaned toward the full-game under if the number reaches 8.5, anchored by Nathan Eovaldi’s dominant under trend. Eovaldi’s 16 starts have gone 13-3 to the under, and the Rangers have generally played low-scoring baseball. While six of the last seven Braves-Rangers meetings have finished over, the host trusts Eovaldi to mute Atlanta’s bats and notes Texas’ own offense rarely forces overs. The total opened 8 (over -120) and could climb; that half-run plus Eovaldi’s 81% under rate makes the host interested. He did acknowledge the volatile Atlanta bullpen as the one potential spoiler.

WagerTalk Host said Texas is the bet on the first-five run line (-0.5 at -120) because the Rangers own a decisive starting-pitching edge. Nathan Eovaldi has been “lights out,” while Braves spot starter Joey Wentz brings a 5.71 ERA and 1.61 WHIP and is making only his second MLB start since 2023. The host expects Wentz to regress after four scoreless innings against the Yankees and believes Eovaldi will stifle Atlanta for the opening five frames. Texas is 5-0 since the break, Atlanta just 2-4 and beginning an eight-game road trip—momentum and travel factors he thinks matter early. He avoided the full-game moneyline (-170) and even the first-five moneyline (-180/-185) for price reasons, preferring the cheaper run-line lay.

Eric Lindquist said Jose Ramirez is his favorite home-run target on Thursday against Charlie Morton. Morton has been solid but not dominant (22.5 % K-rate, 7.9 % barrel rate), and Progressive Field’s right-field winds are expected to shift from blowing in to a more neutral pattern. Ramirez is "on another planet" at the plate with a 294 expected batting average and a 20-degree launch angle during his recent surge. Lindquist believes that combination of hot bat, merely average opposing pitching, and slightly improved weather makes the J-RAM HR prop playable at current plus money.