Kenny G said the Red Sox are worth a small play at -125 on the moneyline in their afternoon matchup with Seattle. His confidence is rooted in Garrett Crochet’s sparkling 2.24 ERA and 8.1-inning gem against the Yankees last time out, plus a Boston bullpen that has hung around the top-10 all year. While Luis Castillo has been solid (3.29 ERA), Seattle’s relief corps owns a 3.82 ERA—noticeably worse than last season—and its offense has cooled to league-average levels (15th in runs, 14th in SLG). Both clubs trend toward the over, but Kenny expects a low-scoring game and even suggested a no-run first inning; therefore he prefers the superior bullpen and hotter starter at only a modest road price.

Malcom Bamford advised backing the Red Sox at ‑125 in Seattle. His reasoning centered on two angles: (1) Garrett Crochet has turned a corner, holding the Yankees in check his last time out and posting elite underlying numbers despite a career 0-2, 4.96 ERA mark versus Seattle; and (2) Boston is on a six-plus-game heater after Monday’s 2-0 travel-spot win that showed the clubhouse is over the emotional gut-punch from Sunday. Meanwhile the Mariners are ‘flaky’—only 8-8 in Luis Castillo’s starts and middling across most offensive splits. Given Boston’s current form and a perceived pitching edge, Bamford preferred the Sox moneyline to any total or derivative.

Eric Lindquist called Roman Anthony his favorite play of the slate, planning to bet the rookie’s HR prop at +550 or longer. Anthony is now hitting third with Rafael Devers out, and Lindquist noted Luis Castillo’s rising hard-contact rate and what he views as looming negative regression for the right-hander. With Castillo giving up loud contact and pitching in a park that plays neutral for left-handed power, Lindquist believes Anthony’s homer odds are mispriced at anything north of +550.

Eric Lindquist said he is looking to play Garrett Crochet’s under 1.5 earned-runs prop in Seattle. His reasoning: Crochet owns a 30.6% strike-out rate and will be working in the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball (T-Mobile). With that combination of swing-and-miss stuff plus run suppression conditions, Lindquist expects Crochet to keep the Mariners off the board and is waiting for books to hang the number before firing on the under.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Seattle Mariners on the money-line. He questioned whether Boston’s lineup can support Tanner Houck and highlighted that Seattle has won four of its last five and routinely protects home field. Over the previous week the M’s offense sits top-10 in most major categories, giving Luis Castillo a larger margin for error than Houck. Given Castillo’s current form and the Red Sox’ inconsistent run production, the tout framed this as a favorable spot to ride a surging home club.

Eric Lindquist recommended backing Seattle on the run line, citing a perfect storm of matchup edges. Boston is reportedly sitting or shopping Rafael Devers, removing its only threatening left-handed bat while Wilyer Abreu remains on the IL. That leaves Lucas Giolito—sporting a 4.78 xERA and diminished fastball velocity—to battle Logan Gilbert in his return. Gilbert’s underlying numbers were pristine before the shutdown (2.29 expected ERA, 29 % K-rate, 5 % walk rate), and Lindquist trusts the Mariners bullpen that has posted a 3.37 FIP over the last month. In a power-suppressing park where one swing rarely neutralizes a deficit, Lindquist wants the deeper Seattle lineup and superior starter at minus-1.5 runs, expecting Boston’s watered-down order to struggle to keep pace.

Just A Bet Outside likes Logan Gilbert’s strikeout upside versus Boston despite a projected 75–80 pitch cap in his first start off the IL. Before the injury, Gilbert posted 44 strikeouts in 30.1 IP and had logged 7-plus Ks in six straight outings. The Red Sox own the league’s 3rd-highest K-rate vs right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (23.9%) and just traded Rafael Devers, thinning the left-handed threat. Gilbert’s 47.1% strikeout rate against righties is elite, so even 5-6 innings could yield 6+ strikeouts. The tout will check for a 5.5 line on K props and tags Gilbert as a ceiling play in DFS tournaments.

Scott Reichel called the Red Sox a live underdog at +145 in Seattle. He thinks the line is inflated because Logan Gilbert is returning from a six-week IL stint; the right-hander may be limited to 75–80 pitches. Meanwhile Boston has won five straight and eight of ten, thanks to a staff that owns a 2.86 ERA in that span. Reichel added that every game in the Sox winning streak has stayed under eight runs, showing their ability to win low-scoring contests. Given Lucas Giolito’s volatility, Reichel sees enough paths for Boston to steal a tight one and insists anything north of +135 is worth a play.

Kenny G tagged Boston +145 in Seattle as his "dog of the day." He questioned the steep Mariners price with Logan Gilbert making his first start off the IL (elbow) and likely on a pitch limit, which could expose a shaky Seattle bullpen (3.88 ERA). Lucas Giolito, by contrast, has allowed only one earned run over six innings in his latest start and has logged three quality outings in his last four. Boston’s offense still ranks 5th in runs and 6th in OBP despite Rafael Devers being shipped to San Francisco, and its bullpen owns a serviceable 3.53 ERA (10th). Seattle’s lineup has cooled to 15th in runs and 19th in AVG after a hot April. Kenny sees clear value fading a –175 favorite with injury uncertainty on the mound and likes the Red Sox to steal the opener in a low-scoring contest.

B Wade backed J.P. Crawford to record OVER 0.5 singles Monday. Crawford has produced at least one single in 13 of his last 20 games (65%) compared with 36-for-84 on hits + runs + RBIs this season, so the singles prop shows a slightly better hit rate. He owns two hits—including a homer—in four career at-bats off Lucas Giolito, the scheduled starter, and Giolito’s 5-plus ERA/1.50 WHIP suggests plenty of base runners. Crawford also logged a single in all three games of the clubs’ previous series (five total singles) and his plus speed turns borderline grounders into infield knocks. With Boston’s right-hander scuffling and Crawford’s track record versus both pitcher and team, Wade considered this one of his five strongest Monday props.